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At least 253 records · Page 14

Spatial and temporal trends and variabilities of hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and their possible attributions

Following on our study of hail for the Southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summer seasons (June–August) over 2004–2016 using two independent hail datasets. Both severe hail (1 < diameter = 2 inches) and significant severe hail (diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The hailstones in the NGP demonstrate a large interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend over 2004–2016. Spatially, the positive trend is mainly located in the western part of South Dakota and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 76% of the hail interannual variability from the hail reports based on the multivariate linear regression. Hail occurrences are 73% higher during the cold phase of ENSO (La Nin~a) than the warm phase of ENSO (El Nin~o). When the NASH has a larger northwestward expansion or stronger intensity, more hail occurs over the NGP, because the increases of latitudinal gradient of pressure leads to a stronger LLJ. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except ENSO.

Jeong, Jong-Hoon↗

CHESS 2025: Field-collected vegetation attributes and site photos

This dataset represents field observations of vegetation samples collected as part of the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) during June and July of 2025. Samples were collected in the field using tablet computers and digital forms, with target data differing by sample type (individual trees, individual shrubs, or 1-meter square plots of meadow and subshrub vegetation). Field samples were collected within 72 hours of airborne data collection using the National Ecological Observatory Network’s Aerial Observation Platform (NEON AOP). The NEON AOP collected waveform LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and imaging spectrometer data in 426 spectral bands from the visible to shortwave infrared. Remote sensing data for the project is available on ESS-DIVE (DOI and citation to be added upon publication). Field data collected included canopy height and per-species horizontal proportional cover for meadow plots, species identity and height information for shrubs, as well as species identity, height, diameter at breast height, and health assessment information for trees. Photos of the focal site and surrounding landscape were taken for all sampling sites and are included in this archive. Green leaves or needles were collected for plant trait and foliar chemistry analysis. This data is archived separately (DOI and citation to be added upon publication). High-precision geospatial data for each sample (crown perimeter polygons for trees and shrubs, plot boundaries for meadow plots) is available here (Henderson et al., 2026). Field and remote sensing protocols largely followed those of a previous field and airborne imaging campaign performed in 2018 (described in Chadwick et al. 2020). Field data from the 2018 campaign can be found here (Chadwick et al., 2020 doi:10.15485/1618130). Because different field measurements were taken for meadow, shrub, and tree sites, data from these three sample types are archived as separate tables (chess_meadow_site_cleaned.csv, chess_shrub_site_cleaned.csv, chess_tree_site_cleaned.csv). Meadow proportional cover data is stored in a separate table (chess_meadow_cover_cleaned.csv). Taxonomy was treated identically between sample types, and the dataset shares a common set of voucher specimens (chess_voucher_IDs_cleaned.csv), as well as a single species list (chess_species_list_cleaned.csv). All taxonomic determinations were performed to the species level, and adhere to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) backbone taxonomy as of January 10th, 2026 (GBIF Secretariat 2023). CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgment: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Anomaly Attribution with Likelihood Compensation

This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a responsibility score indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.

Idé, Tsuyoshi↗

Improving cellulose attribution by selectively removing yeast glucans from grain fermentation intermediates

Abstract This article presents an industry-relevant method for quantifying cellulose in mixed substrate samples. We built upon the cellulosic glucan measurement proposed by Sluiter et al. (2021) to investigate significant cellulose loss under cold caustic conditions, which has hindered the establishment of an industrially relevant method. To overcome this issue, we used dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) as an alternative solvent, which avoids mercerization reactions (Budtova and Navard 2015) but may leave some resistant starch in the sample. Treatment via an enzyme mixture removed starch and conformed to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance on cellulose measurement by establishing quantitative de-starching via nuclear magnetic resonance (EPA 2022). The selective removal of yeast beta-glucan was accomplished using a commercially available Zymolyase. Our results demonstrated excellent reproducibility, with coefficients of variance of 7.14% or less, when measuring cellulose in low cellulose content samples. The method was tested on relevant lab and plant samples, showing an average 0.9% ethanol derived from the conversion of cellulose when cellulase was added to the process and zero response when no cellulase was added. These findings indicate that a cellulose method using DMSO and pullulanase provides a complete and accurate view of cellulose content, composition, and conversion in industrial fermentation processes.

Sluiter, Justin [National Renewable Energy Laborat↗

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Radium Distributions, Source Attribution and Impacts from Marcellus Produced Water

This presentation characterizes spatial trends in radium (Ra) concentrations, sources, and potential impacts generated from Marcellus Shale produced waters. Here, we combine previously published produced water data with additional Ra activity measurements extracted from residual waste reports submitted to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection from 2012-2023. This is the largest, spatially referenced compilation of Ra activity measurements from produced water sourced from the Marcellus Shale to date. The median Marcellus Shale produced water Ra activity presented here is 6,906 pCi/L (interquartile range = 12,515 pCi/L). Radium activities in the positively skewed dataset can exceed 30,000 pCi/L in some parts of the state. The regional trends in Ra concentrations and isotopic ratios will be characterized and potential environmental and health implications discussed.

Mackey, Justin↗

Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition Overview: Market simulation, divisions, stages, storage attributes, and scoring

The Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition (ESPA-Comp) aims to assess the performance of participants’ battery storage offer algorithms on their ability to maximize the value of battery storage resources under three different market designs: two-settlement, multi-settlement, and rolling horizon forward markets. This document describes the overall design of the competition at a high level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Attributes and Development

Although more established for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), advancements in electric vehicle (EV) charging technology are being made in the medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) sector. Progress is also being made with the electrification of MD/HD vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, MD trucks, and HD trucks. The diverse set of operational requirements and duty cycles for each vocation, as well as the range in the size of fleets, present unique charging and infrastructure requirements. This report focuses on charging requirements for MD/HD vehicles and synergies with LDV infrastructure. This analysis leans toward the qualitative rather than quantitative because relevant model inputs are in development and will not be established for a few years, as EV deployments are more mature in the LDV sectors than MD/HD. The report begins with an overview of MD/HD vehicle classes and types of charging, including depot and residential charging, among others (Section 2). Section 3 analyzes the home bases (overnight dwell locations) of existing MD/HD vehicles, with an emphasis on depot and residential home bases, and discusses implications for charging infrastructure. Section 4 discusses the key characteristics for determining if, when, and where MD/HD vehicles can leverage LDV charging infrastructure rather than requiring dedicated chargers. These considerations include electricity demand, connectors, physical space requirements, payment considerations, and impacts on the grid. Section 5 summarizes shared characteristics for MD/HD vehicles that are appropriate for near-term electrification and includes a summary of the outlook of the electric MD/HD vehicle market. The conclusion (Section 6) summarizes the report's findings and outlines areas for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗