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DOE OSTI2025

Unified and consistent structure growth measurements from joint ACT, SPT and \textit{Planck} CMB lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and \textit{Planck}. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of $A_\mathrm{lens}^\mathrm{recon} = 1.025 \pm 0.017$ with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB \textit{Planck}-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a $1.6\%$ measurement of the parameter combination $S_8^\mathrm{CMBL} \equiv σ_8\,(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.25} = 0.825^{+0.015}_{-0.013}$. Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to $σ_8 = 0.829 \pm 0.009$ (a $1.1\%$ determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from \texttt{Pantheon+}, we present a $4\%$ sound-horizon-independent estimate of $H_0=66.4\pm2.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}} $. The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a $Λ$CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from \textit{Planck} and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baryon fraction from the BAO amplitude: a consistent approach to parameterizing perturbation growth

Galaxy clustering constrains the baryon fraction Omega_b/Omega_m through the amplitude of baryon acoustic oscillations and the suppression of perturbations entering the horizon before recombination. This produces a different pre-recombination distribution of baryons and dark matter. After recombination, the gravitational potential responds to both components in proportion to their mass, allowing robust measurement of the baryon fraction. This is independent of new-physics scenarios altering the recombination background (e.g. Early Dark Energy). The accuracy of such measurements does, however, depend on how baryons and CDM are modeled in the power spectrum. Previous template-based splitting relied on approximate transfer functions that neglected part of information. We present a new method that embeds an extra parameter controlling the balance between baryons and dark matter in the growth terms of the perturbation equations in the CAMB Boltzmann solver. This approach captures the baryonic suppression of CDM prior to recombination, avoids inconsistencies, and yields a clean parametrization of the baryon fraction in the linear power spectrum, separating out the simple physics of growth due to the combined matter potential. We implement this framework in an analysis pipeline using Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure with HOD-informed priors and validate it against noiseless LCDM and EDE cosmologies with DESI-like errors. The new scheme achieves comparable precision to previous splitting while reducing systematic biases, providing a more robust way to baryon-fraction measurements. In combination with BBN constraints on the baryon density and Alcock-Paczynski estimates of the matter density, these results strengthen the use of baryon fraction measurements to derive a Hubble constant from energy densities, with future DESI and Euclid data expected to deliver competitive constraints.

Crespi, Andrea [U. Waterloo (main); Waterloo U., I↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chromosome-level genome assemblies and genetic maps reveal heterochiasmy and macrosynteny in endangered Atlantic Acropora

Abstract Background Over their evolutionary history, corals have adapted to sea level rise and increasing ocean temperatures, however, it is unclear how quickly they may respond to rapid change. Genome structure and genetic diversity contained within may highlight their adaptive potential. Results We present chromosome-scale genome assemblies and linkage maps of the critically endangered Atlantic acroporids,Acropora palmataandA. cervicornis. Both assemblies and linkage maps were resolved into 14 chromosomes with their gene content and colinearity. Repeats and chromosome arrangements were largely preserved between the species. The family Acroporidae and the genusAcroporaexhibited many phylogenetically significant gene family expansions. Macrosynteny decreased with phylogenetic distance. Nevertheless, scleractinians shared six of the 21 cnidarian ancestral linkage groups as well as numerous fission and fusion events compared to other distantly related cnidarians. Genetic linkage maps were constructed from oneA. palmatafamily and 16A. cervicornisfamilies using a genotyping array. The consensus maps span 1,013.42 cM and 927.36 cM forA. palmataandA. cervicornis, respectively. Both species exhibited high genome-wide recombination rates (3.04 to 3.53 cM/Mb) and pronounced sex-based differences, known as heterochiasmy, with 2 to 2.5X higher recombination rates estimated in the female maps. Conclusions Together, the chromosome-scale assemblies and genetic maps we present here are the first detailed look at the genomic landscapes of the critically endangered Atlantic acroporids. These data sets revealed that adaptive capacity of Atlantic acroporids is not limited by their recombination rates. The sister species maintain macrosynteny with few genes with high sequence divergence that may act as reproductive barriers between them. In the AtlanticAcropora, hybridization between the two sister species yields an F1 hybrid with limited fertility despite the high levels of macrosynteny and gene colinearity of their genomes. Together, these resources now enable genome-wide association studies and discovery of quantitative trait loci, two tools that can aid in the conservation of these species.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signal-preserving CMB component separation with machine learning

Analysis of microwave sky signals, such as the cosmic microwave background, often requires component separation using multifrequency methods, whereby different signals are isolated according to their different frequency behaviors. Many so-called blind methods, such as the internal linear combination (ILC), make minimal assumptions about the spatial distribution of the signal or contaminants, and only assume knowledge of the frequency dependence of the signal. The ILC produces a minimum-variance linear combination of the measured frequency maps. In the case of Gaussian, statistically isotropic fields, this is the optimal linear combination, as the variance is the only statistic of interest. However, in many cases the signal we wish to isolate, or the foregrounds we wish to remove, are non-Gaussian and/or statistically anisotropic (in particular for the case of Galactic foregrounds). In such cases, it is possible that machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to exploit the non-Gaussian features of the foregrounds and thereby improve component separation. However, many ML techniques require the use of complex, difficult-to-interpret operations on the data. We propose a hybrid method whereby we train an ML model using only combinations of the data that , and combine the resulting ML-predicted foreground estimate with the ILC solution to reduce the error from the ILC. We demonstrate our methods on simulations of extragalactic temperature and Galactic polarization foregrounds and show that our ML model can exploit non-Gaussian features, such as point sources and spatially varying spectral indices, to produce lower-variance maps than ILC—e.g., reducing the variance of the B-mode residual by factors of up to 5—while preserving the signal of interest in an unbiased manner. Moreover, we often find improved performance even when applying our ML technique to foreground models on which it was not trained. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

McCarthy, Fiona (ORCID:0000000253893565)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Velocity reconstruction in the era of DESI and Rubin/LSST. I. Exploring spectroscopic, photometric, and hybrid samples

Peculiar velocities of galaxies and halos can be reconstructed from their spatial distribution alone. This technique is analogous to the baryon acoustic oscillations reconstruction, using the continuity equation to connect density and velocity fields. The resulting reconstructed velocities can be used to measure imprints of galaxy velocities on the cosmic microwave background like the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect or the moving lens effect. As the precision of these measurements increases, characterizing the performance of the velocity reconstruction becomes crucial to allow unbiased and statistically optimal inference. In this paper, we quantify the relevant performance metrics: the variance of the reconstructed velocities and their correlation coefficient with the true velocities. We show that the relevant velocities to reconstruct for kSZ and moving lens are actually the halo—rather than galaxy—velocities. We quantify the impact of redshift-space distortions, photometric redshift errors, satellite galaxy fraction, incorrect cosmological parameter assumptions and smoothing scale on the reconstruction performance. Here, we also investigate hybrid reconstruction methods, where velocities inferred from spectroscopic samples are evaluated at the positions of denser photometric samples. We find that using exclusively the photometric sample is better than performing a hybrid analysis. The 2 Gpc/ℎ length simulations from abacussummit with realistic galaxy samples for DESI and Rubin LSST allow us to perform this analysis in a controlled setting. In the companion paper [B. Hadzhiyska, S. Ferraro, B. Ried Guachalla, and E. Schaan, companion paper, Phys. Rev. D 109, 103534 (2024).], we further include the effects of evolution along the light cone and give realistic performance estimates for DESI luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and Rubin LSST-like samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On a Spectral Method for β -particle Bound Excitation Collisions in Kilonovae

The interaction of β-particles with the weakly ionized plasma background is an important mechanism for powering the kilonova (KN) transient signal from neutron star mergers. For this purpose, we present an implementation of the approximate fast-particle collision kernel, described by Inokuti following the seminal formulation of Bethe, in a spectral solver of the Vlasov–Maxwell–Boltzmann equation. In particular, we expand the fast-particle plane-wave atomic excitation kernel into coefficients of the Hermite basis, and derive the relevant discrete spectral system. In this fast-particle limit, the approach permits the direct use of atomic data, including optical oscillator strengths, normally applied to photon–matter interaction. The resulting spectral matrix is implemented in the MASS-APP spectral solver framework, in a way that avoids full matrix storage per spatial zone. We numerically verify aspects of the matrix construction, and present a proof-of-principle 3D simulation of a 2D axisymmetric KN ejecta snapshot. Our preliminary numerical results indicate that a reasonable choice of Hermite basis parameters for β-particles in the KN is a bulk velocity parameter u = 0, a thermal velocity parameter α = 0.5c, and a 9 × 9 × 9 mode velocity basis set (Hermite orders of 0–8 in each dimension). For interior-ejecta sample zones, we estimate that the ratio of thermalization from large-angle (≳2fdg5) bound excitation scattering to total thermalization is ~0.002–0.003.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Requirements on the gain calibration for LiteBIRD polarisation data with blind component separation

The detection of primordial B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could provide information about the early stages of the Universe's evolution. The faintness of this signal requires exquisite calibration accuracy and control of instrumental systematic effects which otherwise could bias the measurements. In this work, we study the impact of an imperfect relative polarisation gain calibration on the recovered value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r for the LiteBIRD experiment, through the application of the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) foreground-cleaning method. We derive requirements on the relative calibration accuracy of the overall polarisation gain (Δg ν ) for each LiteBIRD frequency channel. Our results show that minimum variance techniques, as NILC, are less sensitive to systematic gain calibration uncertainties compared to a parametric approach, if the latter is not equipped with a proper modelling of these instrumental effects. In this study, the most stringent requirements are found in the channels where the CMB signal is relatively brighter, with the tightest constraints at 166 GHz (Δg ν ≈ 0.16%). This differs from the outcome of an analogous analysis performed with a parametric method, where the tightest requirements are obtained for the foreground-dominated channels. Gain calibration uncertainties, corresponding to the derived requirements, are then simultaneously propagated into all frequency channels. By doing so, we find that the overall impact on estimated r is lower than the total gain systematic budget for LiteBIRD approximately by a factor 5, due to the correlations of the impacts of gain calibration uncertainties in different frequency channels. In order to decouple the systematic effect from the specific choice of the model, we derive the requirements assuming constant spectral parameters for the foreground emission. To assess the robustness of the obtained results against more realistic scenarios, we repeat the analysis assuming sky models of intermediate and high complexity. In these further cases, we adopt an optimised NILC pipeline, called the Multi-Clustering NILC (MC-NILC). We find that the impact of gain calibration uncertainties on r is lower than the LiteBIRD gain systematics budget for the intermediate-complexity sky model. For the high-complexity case, instead, it would be necessary to tighten the requirements by a factor 1.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining gravity with a new precision 𝐸 𝐺 estimator using Planck + SDSS BOSS data

The 𝐸 𝐺 statistic is a discriminating probe of gravity developed to test the prediction of general relativity (GR) for the relation between gravitational potential and clustering on the largest scales in the observable Universe. We present a novel high-precision estimator for the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic using CMB lensing and galaxy clustering correlations that carefully matches the effective redshifts across the different measurement components to minimize corrections. A suite of detailed tests is performed to characterize the estimator’s accuracy, its sensitivity to assumptions and analysis choices, and the non-Gaussianity of the estimator’s uncertainty is characterized. After finalization of the estimator, it is applied to Planck CMB lensing and SDSS CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We report the first harmonic space measurement of 𝐸 𝐺 using the LOWZ sample and CMB lensing and also updated constraints using the final CMASS sample and the latest Planck CMB lensing map. We find $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+CMASS}_{𝐺}$ = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$⁢(68.27%) and $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+LOWZ}_{𝐺}$ = 0.4⁢0$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$⁢(68.27%), with additional subdominant systematic error budget estimates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Using Ω m,0 constraints from Planck and SDSS BAO observations, Λ⁢CDM-GR predicts 𝐸$^{GR}_ {𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.555) = 0.401 ± 0.005 and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 at the effective redshifts of the CMASS and LOWZ based measurements. We report the measurement to be in good statistical agreement with the Λ⁢CDM-GR prediction and report that the measurement is also consistent with the more general GR prediction of scale independence for 𝐸 𝐺 . Furthermore, this work provides a carefully constructed and calibrated statistic with which 𝐸 𝐺 measurements can be confidently and accurately obtained with upcoming survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗
DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Review of Neutron Yield from (α, n) Reactions: Data, Methods, and Prospects

Understanding the radiogenic neutron production rate through the (α, n) reaction is crucial in many areas of physics, including dark matter searches, neutrino studies, and nuclear astrophysics. In addition to its relevance for fundamental research, the (α, n) reaction also plays a significant role in nuclear energy technologies, for example by contributing to neutron production in subcritical systems using UO2, as well as in applications such as medical physics. This review examines the current state of (α, n) yield calculations and neutron spectra, describes the computational tools used for their estimation, and discusses the available cross-section data. We discuss the uncertainties affecting (α, n) yield estimations and propose a strategy to enhance their accuracy. Furthermore, this paper discusses and emphasizes the need for new measurements of (α, n) cross-sections for a variety of relevant materials. Such measurements are essential for improving neutron flux predictions, which are crucial for reducing uncertainties in sensitivity estimates for next-generation physics experiments operating in the keV—MeV range.

(α, n)reactions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commissioning of the Mu2e tracker DAQ, planning for the Vertical Slice Test and pre-pattern recognition studies

The primary objective of the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab is to search for the neutrino-less coherent $\mu \rightarrow e$ conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus ($\mu^- \text{Al} \rightarrow e^- \text{Al}$). The signature of this process is a monochromatic Conversion Electron (CE) with an energy of approximately 104.97 MeV \cite{bartoszek2015mu2e}. Within the Standard Model (SM), the branching ratio for this process, including neutrino masses and oscillation, is expected to be less than $\mathcal{O}(10^{-50})$. This value is far beyond current experimental capabilities. However, models of physics beyond the SM predict much higher relative rates, approaching an observable level. The SINDRUM II experiment set an upper limit on muon conversion at $7 \times 10^{-13}$ (90\% CL) on Au target \cite{SINDRUMII:2006dvw}, and the Mu2e collaboration aims to improve this limit by four orders of magnitude. Observing this process would provide a clear evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. A brief discussion of the theoretical and experimental aspects is provided in Chapter \ref{intr}. Mu2e adopts a sophisticated experimental setup to achieve its goals, further described in Chapter \ref{mu2echapter}. The central part of the Mu2e detector is the tracker, that consists of 18 tracking stations. The tracker must provide excellent momentum resolution, approximately 1 MeV/c, to distinguish the monochromatic CE signal from the background. To minimize the energy losses, a straw tube tracker will be used \cite{bobbb}. Chapter \ref{chaptertrk} provides an overview of the straw tracker design and its working principles. This Thesis presents a comprehensive study of the Mu2e tracker, covering complementary aspects from initial commissioning to optimization and first steps of the calibration processes. My work at Fermilab has been focused on the complete Data Acquisition (DAQ) testing from both hardware and software perspectives. I was involved in the commissioning of the Mu2e DAQ system and the Vertical Slice Test (VST) of the tracker. The VST encompasses the entire testing chain, from the straws to the readout, and to processed data on disk. I was also focused on the offline analysis, especially on pre-pattern recognition studies, to explore the best methods for identifying $\delta$-electrons during the data taking. Chapter \ref{commissioning} details the commissioning of the tracker DAQ system, emphasizing the importance of understanding of the readout process before the data acquisition. This includes validating the readout logic and firmware through Monte Carlo simulations to confirm functionality and buffering, monitoring the quality of the data from the tracker preamplifiers and front-end electronics, and assessing overall DAQ performance to ensure reliability during future calibration and data-taking. Chapter \ref{planning} discusses the initial steps towards the tracker calibration. The ultimate goal is to perform a time calibration of the first assembled station of the tracker using cosmic muons, aiming for a longitudinal hit position resolution better than 4 cm. This involves determining the signal propagation times and channel-to-channel delays. I performed a Monte Carlo study to determine the impact of the station orientation on the quality of the calibration, in particular on the cosmic track reconstruction, focusing on potential biases that could arise. These studies provide essential insights into the operation, optimization, and calibration of the Mu2e tracker system. Given the high data volume expected during Mu2e operations, estimated at approximately 7 PBytes per year, optimizing memory usage and minimizing CPU consumption are critical. A significant challenge lies in effectively flagging $\delta$-electron hits, which are the primary source of hits in the tracker, without compromising the efficiency of CE hit detection and track reconstruction. A detailed study of pre-pattern recognition and a thorough comparison of two $\delta$-electron flagging algorithms is provided in Chapter \ref{delta}. In Chapter \ref{conclusions}, the findings are concisely summarized, offering a comprehensive synthesis of the research and emphasizing the key insights derived from this study.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMB-S4: Foreground-cleaning Pipeline Comparison for Measuring Primordial Gravitational Waves

We compare multiple foreground-cleaning pipelines for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, using simulated maps of the planned CMB-S4 experiment within the context of the South Pole Deep Patch. To evaluate robustness, we analyze bias and uncertainty on r across various foreground suites using map-based simulations. The foreground-cleaning methods include: a parametric maximum likelihood approach applied to auto- and cross-power spectra between frequency maps; a map-based parametric maximum-likelihood method; and a harmonic-space internal linear combination using frequency maps. We summarize the conceptual basis of each method to highlight their similarities and differences. To better probe the impact of foreground residuals, we implement an iterative internal delensing step, leveraging a map-based pipeline to generate a lensing B-mode template from the large aperture telescope frequency maps. Our results show that the performance of the three approaches is comparable for simple and intermediate-complexity foregrounds, with σ(r) ranging from 3–5 ×10 −4 . However, biases at the 1σ–2σ level appear when analyzing more complex forms of foreground emission. By extending the baseline pipelines to marginalize over foreground residuals, we demonstrate that contamination can be reduced to within statistical uncertainties, albeit with a pipeline-dependent impact on σ(r), which translates to a detection significance between 2σ and 4σ for an input value of r = 0.003. These findings suggest varying levels of maturity among the tested pipelines, with the auto- and cross-spectra-based approach demonstrating the best stability and overall performance. Moreover, given the extremely low noise levels, mutual validation of independent foreground-cleaning pipelines is essential to ensure the robustness of any potential detection.

astronomy data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗