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249 records · Page 14

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

Order-by-order uncertainties of nucleon-nucleon Wolfenstein amplitudes in chiral effective field theory

Quantum mechanical invariance principles dictate the most general operator structure that can be present in the nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction. Five independent operators appear in the on-shell NN amplitude together with five corresponding coefficient functions. The usual choice for these coefficient functions is known as the NN Wolfenstein amplitudes. We analyze the order-by-order convergence of each of the five NN Wolfenstein amplitudes predicted by a semilocal coordinate space potential implementation of chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT). We do this at laboratory kinetic energies between 25 and 200 MeV for both neutron-proton and proton-proton scattering. Our analysis uses the Gaussian-process methods developed by the BUQEYE Collaboration to describe the contributions of each 𝜒⁢EFT order, and so yields truncation uncertainties for each Wolfenstein amplitude that are correlated across scattering angles. We combine information on the size of different orders in the EFT to infer the 𝜒⁢EFT breakdown scale for each amplitude, finding, on average, Λ 𝑏 between 750 and 800 MeV. Furthermore, with this choice of Λ 𝑏 , the EFT truncation uncertainties cover both higher-order results and empirical Wolfenstein amplitudes well for all orders other than the leading order.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Galaxy cluster matter profiles - I. Self-similarity, mass calibration, and observable-mass relation validation employing cluster mass posteriors

We present a study of the weak lensing inferred matter profiles ΔΣ(R) of 698 South Pole Telescope (SPT) thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (tSZE) selected and MCMF optically confirmed galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.25 < z < 0.94 that have associated weak gravitational lensing shear profiles from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Rescaling these profiles to account for the mass dependent size and the redshift dependent density produces average rescaled matter profiles ΔΣ(R/R200c)/(ρcritR200c) with a lower dispersion than the unscaled ΔΣ(R) versions, indicating a significant degree of self-similarity. Galaxy clusters from hydrodynamical simulations also exhibit matter profiles that suggest a high degree of self-similarity, with RMS variation among the average rescaled matter profiles with redshift and mass falling by a factor of approximately six and 23, respectively, compared to the unscaled average matter profiles. We employed this regularity in a new Bayesian method for weak lensing mass calibration that employs the so-called cluster mass posterior P(M200|ζ̂, λ̂, z), which describes the individual cluster masses given their tSZE (ζ̂) and optical (λ̂, z) observables. This method enables simultaneous constraints on richness λ-mass and tSZE detection significance ζ-mass relations using average rescaled cluster matter profiles. We validated the method using realistic mock datasets and present observable-mass relation constraints for the SPT×DES sample, where we constrained the amplitude, mass trend, redshift trend, and intrinsic scatter. Our observable-mass relation results are in agreement with the mass calibration derived from the recent cosmological analysis of the SPT×DES data based on a cluster-by-cluster lensing calibration. Our new mass calibration technique offers a higher efficiency when compared to the single cluster calibration technique. We present new validation tests of the observable-mass relation that indicate the underlying power-law form and scatter are adequate to describe the real cluster sample but that also suggest a redshift variation in the intrinsic scatter of the λ-mass relation may offer a better description. In addition, the average rescaled matter profiles offer high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) constraints on the shape of real cluster matter profiles, which are in good agreement with available hydrodynamical ΛCDM simulations. This high S/N profile contains information about baryon feedback, the collisional nature of dark matter, and potential deviations from general relativity.Key words: gravitational lensing: weak / galaxies: clusters: general / large-scale structure of Universe

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

Toward Accelerated Nuclear-physics Parameter Estimation from Binary Neutron Star Mergers: Emulators for the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff Equations

Abstract Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron-star (BNS) mergers have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the nuclear equation of state (EOS) and the fundamental interactions that determine its properties. However, Bayesian parameter estimation frameworks do not typically sample over microscopic nuclear-physics parameters that determine the EOS. One of the major hurdles in doing so is the computational cost involved in solving the neutron-star structure equations, known as the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations. In this paper, we explore approaches to emulating solutions for the TOV equations: multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), Gaussian processes, and a data-driven variant of the reduced basis method (RBM). We implement these emulators for three different parameterizations of the nuclear EOS, each with a different degree of complexity represented by the number of model parameters. We find that our MLP-based emulators are generally more accurate than the other two algorithms, whereas the RBM results in the largest speedup with respect to the full high-fidelity TOV solver. We employ these emulators for a simple parameter inference using a potentially loud BNS observation and show that the posteriors predicted by our emulators are in excellent agreement with those obtained from the full TOV solver.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Astrophysical Equation-of-State Constraints on the Color-Superconducting Gap

We demonstrate that astrophysical constraints on the dense-matter equation of state place an upper bound on the color-superconducting gap in dense matter above the transition from nuclear matter to quark matter. Pairing effects in the color-flavor locked quark matter phase increase the pressure at high density, and if this effect is sufficiently large then the requirements of causality and mechanical stability make it impossible to reach such a pressure in a way that is consistent with what is known at lower densities. The intermediate-density equation of state is inferred by considering extensions of chiral effective field theory to neutron star densities, and conditioning these using current astrophysical observations of neutron star radius, maximum mass, and tidal deformability (PSR J⁢0348+0432, PSR J1624-2230, PSR J⁢0740+6620, GW170817). At baryon number chemical potential μ = 2.6 GeV we find a 95% upper limit on the color-flavor locked pairing gap Δ of 457 MeV using overly conservative assumptions and 216 MeV with more reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, this constraint may be strengthened by future astrophysical measurements as well as by future advances in high-density QCD calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Physics-based reward driven image analysis in microscopy

The rise of electron microscopy has expanded our ability to acquire nanometer and atomically resolved images of complex materials. The resulting vast datasets are typically analyzed by human operators, an intrinsically challenging process due to the multiple possible analysis steps and the corresponding need to build and optimize complex analysis workflows. We present a methodology based on the concept of a Reward Function coupled with Bayesian Optimization, to optimize image analysis workflows dynamically. The Reward Function is engineered to closely align with the experimental objectives and broader context and is quantifiable upon completion of the analysis. Here, cross-section, high-angle annular dark field (HAADF) images of ion-irradiated (Y, Dy)Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7–δ thin-films were used as a model system. The reward functions were formed based on the expected materials density and atomic spacings and used to drive multi-objective optimization of the classical Laplacian-of-Gaussian (LoG) method. These results can be benchmarked against the DCNN segmentation. This optimized LoG* compares favorably against DCNN in the presence of the additional noise. We further extend the reward function approach towards the identification of partially-disordered regions, creating a physics-driven reward function and action space of high-dimensional clustering. We pose that with correct definition, the reward function approach allows real-time optimization of complex analysis workflows at much higher speeds and lower computational costs than classical DCNN-based inference, ensuring the attainment of results that are both precise and aligned with the human-defined objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient Optimization of Plasma Radiation Detector Configurations using Imperfect Inference Models

The configurations of instruments fielded on an experiment affect the amount of information captured and the quality of subsequent inference. Here, we investigate the problem of optimizing plasma x-ray radiation detectors in a magneto-inertial fusion experiment at Sandia National Laboratories. It is impossible to directly measure properties such as the temperature of the thermonuclear fusion plasma produced in these experiments because of the extreme environment and destructive nature of the experiment. Among other diagnostics, several detectors are placed with significant standoff from the fusion target to capture the x-rays emitted by the fusion plasma, which can be used to infer some of its properties. To optimize the configuration of these detectors, a high-fidelity model (HFM) is used for simulating outputs and a low-fidelity model (LFM) is used for inference. We develop methods based on A- and L-optimality criteria that are efficient to compute while explicitly accounting for the discrepancy between the HFM and the LFM. The method allows us to find detector configurations that perform similarly to or better than the configuration obtained using an existing sampling-based optimization method while decreasing computational time by a factor of 50. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian optimization↗

LABQ3: Bayesian method for quantification of mineral compositions and nano-scale elemental mapping of 3D synchrotron XCT data

Quantitative analysis of mineral compositions is essential in understanding geochemical, mineralogical and environmental processes. Fine-resolution 3D imaging is widely done using synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (XCT), but existing analyses are limited to visualization and segmentation. This paper presents a new method, Linear Attenuation Bayesian Quantitative 3D-mapper (LABQ3), based on the linearity of X-ray attenuation with respect to elemental concentrations. To address the random variability in attenuation measurements, LABQ3 employs Bayesian decision theory to minimize classification error, using reference attenuation distributions from scans of pure mineral standards. To demonstrate LABQ3 and test its performance, we studied precipitated carbonate samples. XCT scans were done at multiple energies using the transmission X-ray microscope (TXM) at beamline 32-ID-C of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The reconstructed 3D images have a voxel size of 20 nm. Analyses revealed rich nano-scale compositional heterogeneity within individual particles. A mixture of calcium and cadmium produced an overall stoichiometric composition of (Ca 0.78 ,Cd 0.22 )CO 3 , with some voxels containing nearly pure CdCO 3 . The addition of zinc led to an overall stoichiometric composition of 33% Ca, 28% Cd, 39% Zn, with a nearly pure CaCO 3 core and compositional zonation through the rim. These compositional gradients are related to temporal sequences of carbonate mineral formation where Cd precipitated at the beginning in (Ca,Cd)CO 3 , while Cd and Zn precipitated at the end in (Ca, Cd,Zn)CO 3 . Results differ from bulk analyses using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing that LABQ3 provides particle-specific insights. LABQ3 distinguishes itself by quantifying chemical compositions along a continuum, making it different from XCT analyses based on segmentation. LABQ3 allows simultaneous acquisition of morphology and chemical composition in 3D, facilitating the interpretation of chemical gradients of trace elements, quantification of solid solution compositions, inferences about temporal sequences of mineral precipitation, and addressing other concerns about solid-phase chemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Scaling and merging time-resolved pink-beam diffraction with variational inference

Time-resolved x-ray crystallography (TR-X) at synchrotrons and free electron lasers is a promising technique for recording dynamics of molecules at atomic resolution. While experimental methods for TR-X have proliferated and matured, data analysis is often difficult. Extracting small, time-dependent changes in signal is frequently a bottleneck for practitioners. Recent work demonstrated this challenge can be addressed when merging redundant observations by a statistical technique known as variational inference (VI). However, the variational approach to time-resolved data analysis requires identification of successful hyperparameters in order to optimally extract signal. In this case study, we present a successful application of VI to time-resolved changes in an enzyme, DJ-1, upon mixing with a substrate molecule, methylglyoxal. We present a strategy to extract high signal-to-noise changes in electron density from these data. Furthermore, we conduct an ablation study, in which we systematically remove one hyperparameter at a time to demonstrate the impact of each hyperparameter choice on the success of our model. We expect this case study will serve as a practical example for how others may deploy VI in order to analyze their time-resolved diffraction data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗