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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob↗

A Dual-Plane PIV Study of Turbulent Heat Transfer Flows

Thin film cooling is a widely used technique in turbomachinery and rocket propulsion applications, where cool injection air protects a surface from hot combustion gases. The injected air typically has a different velocity and temperature from the free stream combustion flow, yielding a flow field with high turbulence and large temperature differences. These thin film cooling flows provide a good test case for evaluating computational model prediction capabilities. The goal of this work is to provide a database of flow field measurements for validating computational flow prediction models applied to turbulent heat transfer flows. In this work we describe the application of a Dual-Plane Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique in a thin film cooling wind tunnel facility where the injection air stream velocity and temperatures are varied in order to provide benchmark turbulent heat transfer flow field measurements. The Dual-Plane PIV data collected include all three components of velocity and all three components of vorticity, spanning the width of the tunnel at multiple axial measurement planes.

Turbulent heat transfer↗

Task 28: Web Accessible APIs in the Cloud Trade Study

This study explored three candidate architectures for serving NASA Earth Science Hierarchical Data Format Version 5 (HDF5) data via Hyrax running on Amazon Web Services (AWS). We studied the cost and performance for each architecture using several representative Use-Cases. The objectives of the project are: Conduct a trade study to identify one or more high performance integrated solutions for storing and retrieving NASA HDF5 and Network Common Data Format Version 4 (netCDF4) data in a cloud (web object store) environment. The target environment is Amazon Web Services (AWS) Simple Storage Service (S3).Conduct needed level of software development to properly evaluate solutions in the trade study and to obtain required benchmarking metrics for input into government decision of potential follow-on prototyping. Develop a cloud cost model for the preferred data storage solution (or solutions) that accounts for different granulation and aggregation schemes as well as cost and performance trades.

cost model↗

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact investigations will be an important aspect of the InSight mission. One of the scientific goals of the mission is a measurement of the current impact rate at Mars. Impacts will additionally inform the major goal of investigating the interior structure of Mars. In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge about seismic signals from impacts on the Earth, Moon, and laboratory experiments. We describe the generalized physical models that can be used to explain these signals. A discussion of the appropriate source time function for impacts is presented, along with spectral characteristics including the cutoff frequency and its dependence on impact momentum. Estimates of the seismic efficiency (ratio between seismic and impact energies) vary widely. Our preferred value for the seismic efficiency at Mars is 5 × 10−4, which we recommend using until we can measure it during the InSight mission, when seismic moments are not used directly. Effects of the material properties at the impact point and at the seismometer location are considered. We also discuss the processes by which airbursts and acoustic waves emanate from bolides, and the feasibility of detecting such signals. We then consider the case of impacts on Mars. A review is given of the current knowledge of present-day cratering on Mars: the current impact rate, characteristics of those impactors such as velocity and directions, and the morphologies of the craters those impactors create. Several methods of scaling crater size to impact energy are presented. The Martian atmosphere, although thin, will cause fragmentation of impactors, with implications for the resulting seismic signals. We also benchmark several different seismic modeling codes to be used in analysis of impact detections, and those codes are used to explore the seismic amplitude of impactinduced signals as a function of distance from the impact site. We predict a measurement of the current impact flux will be possible within the timeframe of the prime mission (one Mars year) with the detection of ∼ a few to several tens of impacts. However, the error bars on these predictions are large. Specific to the InSight mission, we list discriminators of seismic signals from impacts that will be used to distinguish them from marsquakes. We describe the role of the InSight Impacts Science Theme Group during mission operations, including a plan for possible night-time meteor imaging. The impacts detected by these methods during the InSight mission will be used to improve interior structure models, measure the seismic efficiency, and calculate the size frequency distribution of current impacts.

Ingrid Daubar↗

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

Collins, W. D.↗

Variability in the Propagation Phase of CFD-Based Noise Prediction: Summary of Results From Category 8 of the BANC-III Workshop

The usage of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in noise prediction typically has been a two part process: accurately predicting the flow conditions in the near-field and then propagating the noise from the near-field to the observer. Due to the increase in computing power and the cost benefit when weighed against wind tunnel testing, the usage of CFD to estimate the local flow field of complex geometrical structures has become more routine. Recently, the Benchmark problems in Airframe Noise Computation (BANC) workshops have provided a community focus on accurately simulating the local flow field near the body with various CFD approaches. However, to date, little effort has been given into assessing the impact of the propagation phase of noise prediction. This paper includes results from the BANC-III workshop which explores variability in the propagation phase of CFD-based noise prediction. This includes two test cases: an analytical solution of a quadrupole source near a sphere and a computational solution around a nose landing gear. Agreement between three codes was very good for the analytic test case, but CFD-based noise predictions indicate that the propagation phase can introduce 3dB or more of variability in noise predictions.

Lopes, Leonard↗

Modeling and new equipment definition for the vibration isolation box equipment system

Our MSAD-funded research project is to provide numerical modeling support for the VIBES (Vibration Isolation Box Experiment System) which is an IML2 flight experiment being built by the Japanese research team of Dr. H. Azuma of the Japanese National Aerospace Laboratory. During this reporting period, the following have been accomplished: A semi-consistent mass finite element projection algorithm for 2D and 3D Boussinesq flows has been implemented on Sun, HP And Cray Platforms. The algorithm has better phase speed accuracy than similar finite difference or lumped mass finite element algorithms, an attribute which is essential for addressing realistic g-jitter effects as well as convectively-dominated transient systems. The projection algorithm has been benchmarked against solutions generated via the commercial code FIDAP. The algorithm appears to be accurate as well as computationally efficient. Optimization and potential parallelization studies are underway. Our implementation to date has focused on execution of the basic algorithm with at most a concern for vectorization. The initial time-varying gravity Boussinesq flow simulation is being set up. The mesh is being designed and the input file is being generated. Some preliminary 'small mesh' cases will be attempted on our HP9000/735 while our request to MSAD for supercomputing resources is being addressed. The Japanese research team for VIBES was visited, the current set up and status of the physical experiment was obtained and ongoing E-Mail communication link was established.

Sani, Robert L.↗

SSME LOX post flow analysis/fluid structure interaction. Volume 2: Fluid structure interaction

The progress made in resolving the computational issues associated with modeling high temperature and pressure viscous flows in advanced propulsion systems is documented. An overview of adaptive computational methods for various classes of fluid-structure interaction problems is presented. The key features associated with several approaches are outlined and the advantages/disadvantages of each are summarized. A mathematical formulation is presented for general fluid-structure interaction problems with a moving domain. The two adaptive approaches are discussed used in solving the benchmark problems. The first scheme is a user interactive scheme which is quite versatile and easy to implement but requires an excessive amount of monitoring by the operator and is computationally inefficient. The second method is a new, local remeshing method for handling a general class of fluid-structure interaction problems. This method couples many of the attractive features of other approaches into a computationally efficient and versatile method. The results obtained for two test cases are presented. Results from both the user interactive and local remeshing procedure are described. The current status of the project and future goals to be completed are summarized.

Source record↗

The Ten Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical Challenges: Formalized, Analyzed, and Explained

Capturing and analyzing requirements of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) can be challenging, since CPS models typically involve time-varying and real-valued variables, physical system dynamics, or even adaptive behavior. MATLAB/Simulinkis a development and simulation framework that is widely used in industry to capture such systems. In this paper, we report on the application of NASA Ames tools to perform end-to-end analysis of the Ten Lockheed Martin Challenge Problems (LMCPS). LMCPS is a set of industrial Simulink model benchmarks and natural language requirements developed by domain experts. Our framework, which integrates the tools FRET and COCOSIM, is used to: 1) elicit, explain, and formalize the semantics of the given natural language requirements; 2) generate verification code and monitors that can be automatically attached to the Simulink models; 3) perform verification by using SMT-based model checkers. FRET and COCOSIM are open source, and can be used by other researchers and practitioners to replicate our case study. We provide a categorization of recurring patterns in the formalization of the requirements and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our automated verification approach.

Anastasia Mavridou↗

A Combination of Traditional and Novel Methods Used to Evaluate the Impact of an EVA Glove on Hand Performance

The gloved hand is an astronaut s primary means of interacting with the environment, so performance on an EVA is strongly impacted by any restrictions imposed by the glove. As a result, these restrictions have been the subject of study for decades. However, previous studies have generally been unsuccessful in quantifying glove mobility and tactility. Instead, studies have tended to focus on the dexterity, strength and functional performance of the gloved hand. Therefore, it has been difficult to judge the impact of each type of restriction on the glove s overall capability. The lack of basic information on glove mobility in particular, is related to the difficulty in instrumenting a gloved hand to allow an accurate evaluation. However, the current study aims at developing novel technological capabilities to provide metrics for mobility and tactility that can be used to assess the performance of a glove in a way that could enable designers and engineers to improve upon their current designs. A series of evaluations were performed in ungloved, unpressurized and pressurized (4.3 psi) conditions, to allow a comparison across pressures and to the baseline barehanded condition. In addition, a subset of the testing was also performed with the Thermal Micrometeoroid Garment (TMG) removed. This test case in particular provided some interesting insight into how much of an impact the TMG has on gloved mobility -- in some cases, as much as pressurization of the glove. Previous rule-of-thumb estimates had assumed that the TMG would have a much lower impact on mobility, while these results suggest that an improvement in the TMG could actually have a significant impact on glove performance. Similarly, tactility testing illustrated the impact of glove pressurization on tactility and provided insight on the design of interfaces to the glove. The metrics described in this paper have been used to benchmark the Phase VI EVA glove and to develop requirements for the next generation glove for the Constellation program.

Rajulu, Sudhakar↗

Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE) of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) Tool

BACKGROUND Objective Structured Clinical Evaluations (OSCEs) have long been established as a robust methodology for summative assessment of clinical skills and decision-making during medical education. The recent integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into clinical decision-making processes has prompted the need for novel evaluation frameworks to assess the efficacy and reliability of AI clinical decision support system (CDSS) tools. This abstract outlines the process of quantitatively evaluating a novel CDSS (“Doc in a Box” Google 2024) trained on curated medical spaceflight data in the psychomotor domain as it interfaces with a human volunteer acting as the crew medical officer (CMO). PURPOSE The AI CDSS under review was developed as part of the Lunar Command and Control Interoperability (LuCCI) project, which is intended to address a gap in how Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) would interoperate across multiple programs, commercial partners, and international partners. The project objective is to define, prototype, integrate, and evaluate an interoperable lunar command, control, data, and software reference architecture to enable autonomy and informatics capability through common standards across LSS. A multi-modal AI-based CDSS compatible with Federated LSS will assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing complex medical conditions by providing evidence-based recommendations through predictive analytics. Given the critical role of decision-support as NASA continues to evolve its Earth-independent medical operations (EIMO), it is imperative to ensure that such AI tools perform reliably and align with clinical standards during progressive lunar and Martian exploration class missions. METHODS The OSCE framework, traditionally used for evaluating human clinicians, was adapted to assess the AI tool's decision-making capabilities in simulated clinical scenarios. In this adapted OSCE, the AI CDSS was tested across a series of structured clinical scenarios designed to mimic real-life spaceflight patient cases. These scenarios included a range of conditions and complexities, allowing for comprehensive assessment of the tool's performance. Key evaluation metrics included accuracy of diagnosis, timeliness of decision-making, and appropriate recommendations for therapies. The OSCE was scored by human physician evaluators who assessed the AI's recommendations in comparison with expert clinicians' medical decision making to ensure alignment with best practices and the standard of care. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that the AI CDSS demonstrated high accuracy in diagnostic recommendations and decision support across various scenarios. However, certain limitations were noted, such as occasional discrepancies in handling complex or nuanced cases that required a more contextual understanding. Additionally, the tool scored higher on the diagnostic portion of the rubric, with lower scores in the therapeutic recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of continuous refinement and validation of AI tools through rigorous evaluation frameworks like the OSCE. The adaptation of OSCEs for AI tools presents several advantages, including a structured and reproducible approach to evaluation, the ability to test AI systems in diverse clinical scenarios, and the opportunity to benchmark AI performance against established clinical standards to permit charting of future progress as aerospace medicine evolves as a discipline. Remaining challenges include ensuring that these evaluations capture the full spectrum of clinical decision-making scenarios that will be confronted by CMOs during missions and adequately reflecting real-world variability of the austere spaceflight environment. CONCLUSION Employing OSCEs to evaluate AI clinical decision support tools offers a promising approach to validating their clinical utility and efficacy. This methodology not only provides insights into the tool's performance but also fosters ongoing improvement and alignment with standard of care practices. Future research should focus on refining these evaluation processes and addressing limitations to enhance the integration of AI tools in clinical spaceflight settings. REFERENCES Scott S, Hearns V, Barker MA. Testing Clinical Skills: A Look at the OSCE and USMLE Clinical Skills Exams. S D Med. 2019 Oct;72(10):451-453. Majumder MAA, Kumar A, Krishnamurthy K, Ojeh N, Adams OP, Sa B. An evaluative study of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE): students and examiners perspectives. Adv Med Educ Pract. 2019 Jun 5;10:387-397. Karam VY, Park YS, Tekian A, Youssef N. Evaluating the validity evidence of an OSCE: results from a new medical school. BMC Med Educ. 2018 Dec 20;18(1):313.

Ariana M Nelson↗

Experimental/Analytical Characterization of the RBCC Rocket-Ejector Mode

The experimental/analytical research work described here addresses the rocket-ejector mode (Mach 0-2 operational range) of the RBCC engine. The experimental phase of the program includes studying the mixing and combustion characteristics of the rocket-ejector system utilizing state-of-the-art diagnostic techniques. A two-dimensional variable geometry rocket-ejector system with enhanced optical access was utilized as the experimental platform. The goals of the experimental phase of the research being conducted at Penn State are to: (a) systematically increase the range of rocket-ejector understanding over a wide range of flow/geometry parameters and (b) provide a comprehensive data base for evaluating and anchoring CFD codes. Concurrent with the experimental activities, a CFD code benchmarking effort at Marshall Space Flight Center is also being used to further investigate the RBCC rocket-ejector mode. Experiments involving the single rocket based optically-accessible rocket-ejector system have been conducted for Diffusion and Afterburning (DAB) as well as Simultaneous Mixing and Combustion configurations. For the DAB configuration, air is introduced (direct-connect) or ejected (sea-level static) into a constant area mixer section with a centrally located gaseous oxygen (GO2)/gaseous hydrogen (GH2) rocket combustor. The downstream flowpath for this configuration includes a diffuser, an afterburner and a final converging nozzle. For the SMC configuration, the rocket is centrally located in a slightly divergent duct. For all tested configurations, global measurements of the axial pressure and heat transfer profiles as well as the overall engine thrust were made. Detailed measurements include major species concentration (H2 O2 N2 and H2O) profiles at various mixer locations made using Raman spectroscopy. Complementary CFD calculations of the flowfield at the experimental conditions also provide additional information on the physics of the problem. These calculations are being conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center to benchmark the FDNS code for RBCC engine operations for such configurations. The primary fluid physics of interests are the mixing and interaction of the rocket plume and secondary flow, subsequent combustion of the fuel rich rocket exhaust with the secondary flow and combustion of the injected afterburner flow. The CFD results are compared to static pressure along the RBCC duct walls, Raman Spectroscopy specie distribution data at several axial locations, net engine thrust and entrained air for the SLS cases. The CFD results compare reasonably well with the experimental results.

Ruf, J. H.↗

Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit is conducting an evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for operations at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the Kennedy Space Center in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The prognostic data from RAMS is available to ERDAS for display and is used to initialize the 45th Range Safety (45 SW/SE) dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the 45 SW/SE dispersion model is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation task consists of an objective and subjective component for the Florida warm and cool seasons of 1999-2000. The objective evaluation includes gridded and point error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, a comparison of the model errors to a coarser grid configuration of RAMS, and a benchmark of RAMS against the widely accepted Eta model. The warm-season subjective evaluation involves a verification of the onset and movement of the Florida east coast sea breeze and RAMS forecast precipitation. This interim report provides a summary of the RAMS objective and subjective evaluation for the 1999 Florida warm season only.

Case, Jonathan↗

Numerical approach of collision avoidance and optimal control on robotic manipulators

Collision-free optimal motion and trajectory planning for robotic manipulators are solved by a method of sequential gradient restoration algorithm. Numerical examples of a two degree-of-freedom (DOF) robotic manipulator are demonstrated to show the excellence of the optimization technique and obstacle avoidance scheme. The obstacle is put on the midway, or even further inward on purpose, of the previous no-obstacle optimal trajectory. For the minimum-time purpose, the trajectory grazes by the obstacle and the minimum-time motion successfully avoids the obstacle. The minimum-time is longer for the obstacle avoidance cases than the one without obstacle. The obstacle avoidance scheme can deal with multiple obstacles in any ellipsoid forms by using artificial potential fields as penalty functions via distance functions. The method is promising in solving collision-free optimal control problems for robotics and can be applied to any DOF robotic manipulators with any performance indices and mobile robots as well. Since this method generates optimum solution based on Pontryagin Extremum Principle, rather than based on assumptions, the results provide a benchmark against which any optimization techniques can be measured.

Wang, Jyhshing Jack↗

A New Analysis Tool Assessment for Rotordynamic Modeling of Gas Foil Bearings

Gas foil bearings offer several advantages over traditional bearing types that make them attractive for use in high-speed turbomachinery. They can operate at very high temperatures, require no lubrication supply (oil pumps, seals, etc.), exhibit very long life with no maintenance, and once operating airborne, have very low power loss. The use of gas foil bearings in high-speed turbomachinery has been accelerating in recent years, although the pace has been slow. One of the contributing factors to the slow growth has been a lack of analysis tools, benchmarked to measurements, to predict gas foil bearing behavior in rotating machinery. To address this shortcoming, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has supported the development of analytical tools to predict gas foil bearing performance. One of the codes has the capability to predict rotordynamic coefficients, power loss, film thickness, structural deformation, and more. The current paper presents an assessment of the predictive capability of the code, named XLGFBTH (Texas A&M University). A test rig at GRC is used as a simulated case study to compare rotordynamic analysis using output from the code to actual rotor response as measured in the test rig. The test rig rotor is supported on two gas foil journal bearings manufactured at GRC, with all pertinent geometry disclosed. The resulting comparison shows that the rotordynamic coefficients calculated using XLGFBTH represent the dynamics of the system reasonably well, especially as they pertain to predicting critical speeds.

Howard, Samuel A.↗

Overview of the Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

The AIAA Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW) was held in April, 2012, bringing together communities of aeroelasticians and computational fluid dynamicists. The objective in conducting this workshop on aeroelastic prediction was to assess state-of-the-art computational aeroelasticity methods as practical tools for the prediction of static and dynamic aeroelastic phenomena. No comprehensive aeroelastic benchmarking validation standard currently exists, greatly hindering validation and state-of-the-art assessment objectives. The workshop was a step towards assessing the state of the art in computational aeroelasticity. This was an opportunity to discuss and evaluate the effectiveness of existing computer codes and modeling techniques for unsteady flow, and to identify computational and experimental areas needing additional research and development. Three configurations served as the basis for the workshop, providing different levels of geometric and flow field complexity. All cases considered involved supercritical airfoils at transonic conditions. The flow fields contained oscillating shocks and in some cases, regions of separation. The computational tools principally employed Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes solutions. The successes and failures of the computations and the experiments are examined in this paper.

Heeg, Jennifer↗

Use of Traditional and Novel Methods to Evaluate the Influence of an EVA Glove on Hand Performance

The gloved hand is one of an astronaut s primary means of interacting with the environment, and any restrictions imposed by the glove can strongly affect performance during extravehicular activity (EVA). Glove restrictions have been the subject of study for decades, yet previous studies have generally been unsuccessful in quantifying glove mobility and tactility. Past studies have tended to focus on the dexterity, strength, and functional performance of the gloved hand; this provides only a circumspect analysis of the impact of each type of restriction on the glove s overall capability. The aim of this study was to develop novel capabilities to provide metrics for mobility and tactility that can be used to assess the performance of a glove in a way that could enable designers and engineers to improve their current designs. A series of evaluations were performed to compare unpressurized and pressurized (4.3 psi) gloved conditions with the ungloved condition. A second series of evaluations were performed with the Thermal Micrometeoroid Garment (TMG) removed. This series of tests provided interesting insight into how much of an effect the TMG has on gloved mobility - in some cases, the presence of the TMG restricted glove mobility as much as pressurization did. Previous hypotheses had assumed that the TMG would have a much lower impact on mobility, but these results suggest that an improvement in the design of the TMG could have a significant impact on glove performance. Tactility testing illustrated the effect of glove pressurization, provided insight into the design of hardware that interfaces with the glove, and highlighted areas of concern. The metrics developed in this study served to benchmark the Phase VI EVA glove and to develop requirements for the next-generation glove for the Constellation program.

Benson, Elizabeth A.↗

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗