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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulation of solvent-dependent cellulose nanofiber interactions

Associations between cellulose are important both in biofuel production and in the use of cellulose for biomaterials. Cellulose nanofibers (CNFs) are sustainable, strong, light-weight alternatives to traditional materials in manufacturing, but are challenging to obtain due to irreversible aggregation in solution during preparative fibrillation. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the underlying factors driving aggregation with a view to designing solvents that can effectively compete with interfiber interactions, hence reducing aggregation. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation at atomic detail can provide useful information on local interactions. However, the length and timescales accessible are too short to fully capture association processes. Here, we provide a method for accessing the longer length and timescales required using coarse-grained (CG) MD simulations with a MARTINI force field to calculate the interaction behavior of CNFs in three selected solvents: NaOH-urea-water, acetone, and neat water. The CG results are consistent with our prior all-atom MD and with previous experimental results. While acetone is found not to be an effective solvent, urea and ionic moieties in NaOH-urea-water not only solvate the fibrils but also improve the confinement of water molecules around them as shown by the solvent residence times and mean-square displacements. Overall, the presence of urea and ions reduces the likelihood of aggregation in multi-CNF systems relative to neat water irrespective of whether the hydrophobic or hydrophilic CNF surfaces are interacting. In conclusion, the CG method shows clear promise for selecting potential high-performance solvents for experimental prioritization in bioenergy and biomaterials research in a relatively fast manner as well as for understanding the aggregation and rheological behavior of CNF-solvent systems.

aggregation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular simulation and artificial intelligence for the circular economy of bioenergy and bioproducts

The concept of the circular bioeconomy is a carbon neutral, sustainable system with zero waste. One vision for such an economy is based upon lignocellulosic biomass. This lignocellulosic circular bioeconomy requires CO 2 absorption from biomass growth and the efficient deconstruction of recalcitrant biomass into solubilized and fractionated biopolymers, which are then used as precursors for the sustainable production of high-quality liquid fuels, chemical bioproducts, and bio-based materials. Here, in this study, we summarize the roles that molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and machine learning (ML) are playing in overcoming several fundamental challenges hindering the adoption of a circular bioeconomy. Specifically, we discuss the role of MD and ML/AI in overcoming lignocellulose recalcitrance by designing biomass pretreatment methods to efficiently produce solubilized cellulose/lignin/hemicellulose and of that in improving energy-intensive manufacturing of biomass-based materials and their structural and mechanical properties. Quantum mechanical methods and MD simulations, in addition to offering a mechanistic understanding of biomass deconstruction and biomaterials design, can provide meaningful structural, energetics, and physiochemical properties as inputs to train AI/ML models. The ML models can guide the experimental prioritization of materials/solvents and process parameters that significantly accelerate the development of biofuel and biomaterial components of the circular bioeconomy.

Smith, Jeremy C. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscale properties and atomic-scale mechanisms of ash removal in low-temperature hydrothermal carbonization

Biogenic ash is a significant impediment to the utilization of agricultural residues in biofuel production. Such challenge can be addressed by various treatments, as demonstrated in this study on the experimental and computational mechanisms involved in the hydrothermal treatment (HT) of wheat straw. A combination of classical (all-atom) molecular dynamics simulations of cellulose carrying silica and calcium species, along with first principles quantum chemical calculations, indicates the dissociation of inorganics from the cellulose with increased HT temperature. Here, this observation is confirmed by experimental evidence of effective ash removal by HT, showing at least 50% removal of sulfur, chlorine, potassium, and calcium, and 12.5% of silica, leading to a reduced total ash content (from 6.7% to 4.2%).Changes in structural features upon HT, such as surface cellular structure and porosity, were revealed, accompanied by an increased specific surface area (from 1.17 to 6.34 m 2 /g). Our simulations suggest that silica binds tightly to the hydrophobic face of cellulose at room temperature, but HT significantly reduces the binding free energy of association with both hydrophobic and hydrophilic surfaces. Most significantly, ash removal leads to an increased calorific value, rising from approximately 16 MJ/kg to about 19 MJ/kg, along with improved thermal behavior. The improved integration combustion index parameter S indicates that the combustion properties improve with ash removal efficiency. The proposed atomic-level mechanism for the observed removal of inorganics during mild HT underscores the potential of such treatment in producing energy-dense wheat straw, a widely available agricultural residue.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing technologies for lignin-based jet fuel production in aqueous phase

Integrating lignin into a cellulosic ethanol plant for the co-production of lignin-based jet fuel (LJF) in aqueous phase offers a significant opportunity to boost operational efficiency, economic viability, carbon conversion, and the overall sustainability of biofuel and chemical production. LJF is lignin-structure-based jet fuel blendstocks primarily composed of alkyl-substituted mono-, bi-, and tri-cyclohexanes. It exhibits high energy density, potential for low emissions, and favourable blend characteristics that comply with drop-in specifications. An overview of lignin feedstock, catalytic processes, LJF chemical compositions, fuel properties tests, and techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) indicate that (1) the reactivity of lignin plays a crucial role in its structure transformation to LJF molecules; (2) catalytic processing of lignin to LJF can occur through a simultaneous depolymerization and hydrodeoxygenation process, bypassing the intermediate step of producing and upgrading lignin-derived oil; (3) LJF's uniqueness molecules making it more promising for high energy content and low emission jet fuel properties for next generation sustainable aviation fuel (SAF); and (4) TEA and LCA demonstrate that LJF is not only potentially cost-effective but also offers favourable carbon footprint compared to other SAFs. In conclusion, this review highlights the most recent advancements in LJF technology, along with the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in fulfilling its potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flame dynamics and kinetic coupling of ammonia and dimethyl-ether in non-premixed cool and warm flames at elevated pressure

Developing advanced low-temperature combustion engines with ammonia-biofuel blends requires a comprehensive understanding of low-temperature flame dynamics and kinetic interactions between ammonia and oxygenated fuels at elevated pressures. This work aims to study the dynamics and kinetics of non-premixed Dimethyl Ether (DME)/Ammonia (NH 3 ) cool and warm flames, and their reignition to hot flames. A counterflow burner is employed to establish DME/NH 3 cool/warm flames at pressures up to 5 atm. The extinction limits of cool flame and the reignition limits of warm flame to hot flame are measured by varying NH 3 concentrations and compared to simulations to quantitatively examine the effects on DME/NH 3 flames. It is found that NH 3 inhibits low-temperature DME oxidation and results in lower cool flame extinction limits. Warm flames in the presence of NH 3 are observed for the first time, revealing a non-monotonic effect of NH 3 addition: a small amount of NH 3 presence enhances warm flame chemistry and promotes reignition to hot flames, while a high NH 3 concentration weakens the warm flame. This trend is further explained by 0-D PSR kinetic simulations and 1-D S-curve flame dynamic calculations. Three flame transition regimes between cool flames (CF), warm flames (WF), and hot flames (HF) by different levels of NH 3 additions at a specific strain rate are identified, namely WFHF reignition, WF-CF transition, and WF extinction. Reaction sensitivity analyses of OH at low temperatures show that NH3 inhibits DME oxidation through OH consumption via H-abstraction and the kinetic couplings of RO 2 /NH 2 , RO 2 /NO x , R/NO x , and O 2 QOOH/NO x further suppress the low-temperature branching. At intermediate-temperatures, NH 2 /NO x /HO 2 coupling promotes warm flames via the pathway NH 2 → H 2 NO → HNO → NO by converting O 2 → HO 2 → OH. At even higher NH₃ concentrations, radical termination reactions of NH 2 + NO/NO 2 and excessive OH consumption via H-abstraction inhibit the flame. The insights into the kinetic coupling between NH 3 and low-temperature chemistry at elevated pressure and its impact on the dynamics of cool-warm-hot flame transitions will contribute to advancing combustion technologies with reduced emissions and improved energy-efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Zymomonas mobilis : bringing an ancient human tool into the genomic era

Zymomonas mobilis is an ethanologenic bacterium that has been used for over 1500 years to produce alcoholic beverages. Recently, this microbe has become a top candidate for biofuel production due to its efficient metabolism. Z. mobilis is being developed to utilize lignocellulosic biomass as a feedstock and synthesize a range of valuable chemicals and fuels. Genetic and metabolic engineering strategies are crucial to reach these goals. Recent advances include genome engineering, CRISPR editing, and CRISPRi knockdown of genes. Metabolic engineering has enabled redirection of carbon from the natural product ethanol to chemicals such as 2,3-butanediol and polyhydroxybutyrate. Finally, the approaches summarized here will streamline the development of Z. mobilis as an industrial chassis for sustainable liquid fuels and chemicals.

Boismier, Emma C. [Michigan State Univ., East Lans↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technoeconomic analysis for near-term scale-up of bioprocesses

Growing the bioeconomy requires products and pathways that are cost-competitive. Technoeconomic analyses (TEAs) aim to predict the long-term economic viability and often use what are known as n th plant cost and performance parameters. However, as TEA is more widely adopted to inform everything from early-stage research to company and investor decision-making, the n th plant approach is inadequate and risks being misused to inform the early stages of scale-up. Some methods exist for conducting first-of-a-kind/pioneer plant cost analyses, but these receive less attention and have not been critically evaluated. This article explores TEA methods for early-stage scale-up, critically evaluates their applicability to biofuels and bioproducts, and recommends strategies for producing TEA results better suited to guiding prioritization and successful scale-up of bioprocesses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent developments of oleaginous yeasts toward sustainable biomanufacturing

Oleaginous yeast are remarkably versatile organisms, distinguished by their natural capacities to accumulate high levels of neutral lipids and broad substrate range. With recent growing interests in engineering non-model organisms as superior biomanufacturing platforms, oleaginous yeasts have emerged as promising chassis for oleochemicals, terpenoids, organic acids, and other valuable products. Advancement in systems biology along with genetic tool development have significantly expanded our understanding of the metabolism in these species and enabled engineering efforts to produce biofuels and bioproducts from diverse feedstocks. This review examines the latest technical advances in oleaginous yeast research toward sustainable biomanufacturing. We cover recent developments in systems biology-enabled metabolism understanding, genetic tools, feedstock utilization, and strain engineering approaches for the production of various valuable chemicals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applications of explainable artificial intelligence in renewable energy research

Researchers in renewable energy are applying deep learning (DL) to a variety of problems from diverse renewable energy domains, such as biofuels, wind, solar, power systems, buildings, vehicles, and transportation systems. Improvements in accuracy may be demonstrated using DL in laboratory settings. However, the lack of interpretability of DL models poses a practical limitation to their utility in advancing scientific knowledge and in the deployment of DL models in safety-critical energy systems. In this article, we discuss explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) as one pathway toward more interpretable DL models. We explore a brief timeline of U.S. national laboratory interest in XAI, an overview and taxonomy of methods in the field of XAI, and a selection of applications across renewable energy research domains. We conclude by highlighting pivotal areas where XAI can accelerate innovation in artificial intelligence for renewable energy research and other essential future directions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the impacts of inorganic species in woody biomass for preprocessing and pyrolysis–A review

Woody biomass represents an abundant resource for sustainable biofuels, biochemicals, and bioproducts. Technologies for converting woody biomass have been established for decades, and research consistently highlights the critical role of inorganic species and ash plays in feedstock handling and conversion processes, including equipment plugging, corrosion, and catalyst deactivation. A thorough understanding of the variability, transport behavior, and downstream impact of inorganic species in woody biomass is essential for defining feedstock quality specifications and developing effective management strategies for conversion processes. This review compiles critical information in five main sections: 1) inorganic species concentration in woody biomass, based on anatomical fractions and their sources of variability; 2) technique features for quantifying inorganic elemental chemical analysis; 3) impacts of inorganic species on biomass preprocessing; 4) impacts of inorganic species on pyrolysis, and 5) mitigation strategies. Additionally, this review explores future challenges and opportunities in addressing the impacts of inorganic species on biomass quality. These insights aim to support the sustainable development of the biomass-to-bioenergy pipeline and ensure high-quality lignocellulosic feedstocks for efficient downstream conversions. The findings offer valuable guidance to policy makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers in developing effective strategies for managing inorganic species in woody biomass and fostering the sustainable processes for lignocellulosic biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rheology and engine performance of very low sulfur fuel oil blended with 10% fast pyrolysis and hydrothermal liquefaction oils in a 2-stroke crosshead engine

The performance and emissions for a downscaled single-cylinder 2-stroke crosshead engine were determined for a very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) when blended with 10 wt.% fast pyrolysis (FP) or hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) bio-intermediates. The FP and HTL oils were derived from biomass and were observed to contain lower molecular weight (MW) hydrocarbons than neat VLSFO (which was evaluated as a baseline comparison). The addition of either biofuel reduced the overall viscosity of the VLSFO. Aging tests at 50, 90, and 120°C showed that the dynamic viscosity of VLSFO increased with exposure time up to two weeks. Similar trends were observed for the FP and HTL blends, but a pronounced spike in viscosity occurred for these fuels during the early period of exposure. None of the viscosity increases exceeded the operational limits of fuel system pumps. Engine performance studies were conducted under low, medium and high load operational settings. The relative performance of the test fuels was highly dependent on operating condition. In general, the engine results for the three test fuels were similar, but modest improvements in brake thermal efficiency and brake specific fuel consumption were observed, which may be attributed to the heightened reactivity of low molecular weight fraction of the FP and HTL oils.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel reid vapor pressure level and ethanol content on stochastic preignition, effects at steady and unsteady engine operation

The present work investigates relations between fuel Reid vapor pressure (RVP) and biofuel (ethanol) content on stochastic preignition (SPI) at both sustained steady-state engine operation and following load transients. This work stems from in-field observations that automotive original equipment manufacturers have observed consistent seasonal increases in United States customer drivability complaints and warranty claims during September and October where SPI is suspected to be responsible. The seasonal timing of these events coincides with the United States seasonal fuel property changeover initiating on September 15 each year, where fuel RVP increases. To explore potential linkage between fuel RVP and SPI the present study employs engine SPI experiments coupled with laboratory spray measurements of fuels with RVPs of 8, 12, and 16 psi in both E10 (10% ethanol) and E25 (25% ethanol) fuels. Engine results are partitioned into fuel RVP and ethanol content effects on SPI in steady-state, sustained high-load engine operation and unsteady-state low- to high-load transitions, where off-engine spray vessel patternation and tip penetration results help to elucidate the observed fuel effects on SPI. A boosted direct-injected, spark-ignition engine was fueled with three market relevant E10 and E25 fuels with RVPs of 8, 12, and 16 to characterize the interplay between winter fuels and abnormal combustion behavior. The steady-state work shows that for high-load, steady-state engine operation, SPI is directly linked to fuel retention, which was found to be dependent on fuel distillation. The unsteady-state engine operation work shows that following low-to high-load transitions, SPI can occur from a memory of fuel property effects at low-load operation. Specifically, the fuel RVP effect on fuel spray collapse at low loads was found to correlate with SPI with a more than 95% confidence interval following low- to high-engine-load transitions. Results suggest that fuel-wall impingement at low-load operation could carry over into high-load transitions and generate SPI events following low- to high-load transitions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The crystal structure of Grindelia robusta 7,13-copalyl diphosphate synthase reveals active site features controlling catalytic specificity

Diterpenoid natural products serve critical functions in plant development and ecological adaptation and many diterpenoids have economic value as bioproducts. The family of class II diterpene synthases catalyzes the committed reactions in diterpenoid biosynthesis, converting a common geranylgeranyl diphosphate precursor into different bicyclic prenyl diphosphate scaffolds. Enzymatic rearrangement and modification of these precursors generate the diversity of bioactive diterpenoids. We report the crystal structure of Grindelia robusta 7,13-copalyl diphosphate synthase, GrTPS2, at 2.1 Å of resolution. GrTPS2 catalyzes the committed reaction in the biosynthesis of grindelic acid, which represents the signature metabolite in species of gumweed (Grindelia spp., Asteraceae). Grindelic acid has been explored as a potential source for drug leads and biofuel production. The GrTPS2 crystal structure adopts the conserved three-domain fold of class II diterpene synthases featuring a functional active site in the γβ-domain and a vestigial α-domain. Substrate docking into the active site of the GrTPS2 apo protein structure predicted catalytic amino acids. Biochemical characterization of protein variants identified residues with impact on enzyme activity and catalytic specificity. Specifically, mutagenesis of Y457 provided mechanistic insight into the position-specific deprotonation of the intermediary carbocation to form the characteristic 7,13 double bond of 7,13-copalyl diphosphate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic mass transfer in hollow fiber membrane solvent extraction for bio-based isobutanol

Membrane solvent extraction (MSE) has emerged as a promising method for selectively recovering bioproducts from complex aqueous streams. Bio-isobutanol, a next-generation feedstock for biofuel, remains challenging to recover because of its low concentration and the presence of inhibitory substances. This study explores the potential of hollow fiber (HF) MSE for bio-isobutanol recovery and systematically examines the coupled effects of fiber packing, shell-side flow dynamics, and aqueous chemistry on performance. A resistance-in-series model is applied to understand mass transfer in the HF MSE modules, quantify local resistances, and validate overall performance. The results show that increasing the fiber packing provides a larger interfacial area but induces poor flow distribution and channeling, hindering effective isobutanol transport. Meanwhile, increasing the shell-side velocity improves isobutanol recovery due to reductions in the boundary layer thickness. The presence of salts, added to mimic fermentation broth, increases the partition coefficient through salting-out effects, further improving isobutanol flux. A modified correlation for the shell-side mass transfer coefficient (k s,ϕ+v ), integrating geometric and hydrodynamic effects, was developed and validated. The proposed model achieves highly predictive accuracy (r 2 = 0.9808) across a wide range of conditions, outperforming previous models. The findings provide mechanistic insight into the interaction of geometric packing, hydrodynamics, and chemistry in governing mass transfer in HF MSE. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of HF MSE for efficient bio-isobutanol recovery and also provides practical guidelines on critical factors (packing fraction, partition coefficient, and shell-side velocity), aiding in the design and scaling of MSE systems for resource recovery.

Aqueous chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emergence of deep eutectic solvents (DES): chemistry, preparation, properties, and applications in biorefineries and critical materials

The emergence of renewable deep eutectic solvents (DES) as clean and efficient catalysts and solvents has created new opportunities for lignocellulosic biorefineries and critical material sectors, including chemical, energy, pharmaceutical, textile, and hydrometallurgical industries. This review provides an in-depth overview of DES, covering their chemistry, classifications, preparation methods, processing characteristics, and recyclability, while highlighting their unique attributes and industry relevant applications. Emphasis is placed on the integration of DES into advanced biorefinery systems, focusing on their tunable physicochemical and thermodynamic properties for biomass pretreatment and the production of value-added products. The review explores how DES can be tuned for selective dissolution of biomass components and evaluates production and valorization of DES-derived biochemicals, with attention to lignin extraction mechanisms and conversion of biomass into bioproducts and biofuels. Beyond biorefineries, the scope extends to DES applications in electrochemical energy devices, where they serve as electrolytes, synthesis media for electrode materials, and leaching agents in battery recycling. The multifunctional roles of DES in pharmaceutical, hydrometallurgical, and textile sectors are also explored for contributions to sustainable processing. Finally, the review identifies future research directions, outlining benefits, challenges, and knowledge gaps, for continued industrial development.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Engineering acid-base active sites on an N-doped biochar catalyst for microwave-assisted biodiesel production from waste cooking oil

Acid-base bifunctional catalysts play a crucial role in converting high-free fatty acid (FFA) feedstocks into biodiesel by enabling the simultaneous esterification and transesterification of triglycerides in a single step, thereby minimizing saponification and streamlining the process. In this study, we report the design and development of a novel N-doped acid-base bifunctional biochar catalyst synthesized from renewable biomass precursors- glucose and chitosan. The catalyst’s acidic sites were introduced via surface functionalization with o-sulfobenzoic acid cyclic anhydride, grafting -SO₃H groups onto the carbon framework, while basic sites were generated from amine functionalities (-NH) derived from chitosan, yielding a robust and truly bifunctional surface. The catalyst was characterized and used for the microwave-assisted transesterification of waste cooking oil, and process optimization using response surface methodology (RSM-CCD) yielding a maximum biodiesel yield of 98.8 ± 0.4% under optimal conditions (methanol-to-oil molar ratio 20:1, catalyst loading 5.7 wt%, temperature 99 °C, and reaction time 46.6 min). The catalyst demonstrated good stability, maintaining a yield of 92.2 ± 0.4% after eight reuse cycles. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) conducted for 1 kg of biodiesel production revealed a global warming potential of 0.85 kg CO 2 eq and human toxicity potential of 1.59 kg 1,4-DB eq, with the largest environmental contributions arising from catalyst preparation and reuse. In conclusion, this work highlights a green and circular approach to biodiesel production, combining renewable catalyst design, waste feedstock utilization, and quantitative sustainability assessment to guide future developments in sustainable catalysis and biofuel engineering.

Bifunctional catalyst↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing

Cellulosic biofuels offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels and a means to mitigate climate change. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) featuring engineered thermophilic bacteria, combined with mechanical disruption during fermentation (cotreatment), has potential to lower production costs compared to featuring thermochemical pretreatment and added cellulase. A techno-economic analysis was conducted (230 million L ethanol/year) from sugarcane bagasse and straw at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. Three scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term CBP, relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment. Results for these scenarios in this order were: fixed capital investment (CapEx) $\$$589M, $\$$658M, and $\$$472M; net annual revenue (EBITDA) $\$$56M, $\$$96M, and $\$$94M; and minimum ethanol selling price 0.73, 0.61, and 0.48 US$\$$/L. Payback periods were 10.5, 6.9, and 5.1 years, while all scenarios showed <5 years at European prices for scales >100M L/year. Sensitivity and risk analysis highlighted ethanol price as the most critical variable. It is notable that Mid-term CBP had shorter payback times and better overall economic feasibility compared to Conventional. Our results underscore opportunities for research-driven innovation on low-cost cellulosic ethanol technologies in Brazil and elsewhere.

Consolidated bioprocessing↗