Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “CLIMATIC CHANGE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

Abstract The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation

Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change alters slug abundance but not herbivory in a temperate grassland

Climate change will significantly impact the world’s ecosystems, in part by altering species interactions and ecological processes, such as herbivory and plant community dynamics, which may impact forage quality and ecosystem production. Yet relatively few field experimental manipulations assessing all of these parameters have been performed to date. To help fill this knowledge gap, we evaluated the effects of increased temperature (+3°C day and night, year-round) and precipitation (+30% of mean annual rainfall) on slug herbivory and abundance and plant community dynamics biweekly in a pasture located in central Kentucky, U.S.A. Warming increased slug abundance once during the winter, likely due to improving conditions for foraging, whereas warming reduced slug abundance at times in late spring, mid-summer, and early fall (from 62–95% reduction depending on month). We found that warming and increased precipitation did not significantly modify slug herbivory at our site, despite altering slug abundance and affecting plant community composition and forage quality. Climate change will alter seasonal patterns of slug abundance through both direct effects on slug biology and indirect effects mediated by changes in the plant community, suggesting that pasture management practices may have to adapt.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil Microbiomes Under Climate Change and Implications for Carbon Cycling

Communities of soil microorganisms (soil microbiomes) play a major role in biogeochemical cycles and support of plant growth. Here we focus primarily on the roles that the soil microbiome plays in cycling soil organic carbon and the impact of climate change on the soil carbon cycle. We first discuss current challenges in understanding the roles carried out by highly diverse and heterogeneous soil microbiomes and review existing knowledge gaps in understanding how climate change will impact soil carbon cycling by the soil microbiome. Because soil microbiome stability is a key metric to understand as the climate changes, we discuss different aspects of stability, including resistance, resilience, and functional redundancy. We then review recent research pertaining to the impact of major climate perturbations on the soil microbiome and the functions that they carry out. Finally, we review new experimental methodologies and modeling approaches under development that should facilitate our understanding of the complex nature of the soil microbiome to better predict its future responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Embedding Climate Change in Urban Planning and Urban Design in New York City

Confronting the challenges of a rapidly urbanizing world threatened by climate change requires expanding the traditional influence and capabilities of urban planning and urban design, integrating climate science, natural systems and compact urban form to configure dynamic, desirable and healthy communities. Cost-effective planning and design measures that help mitigate emissions while bringing adaptive benefits should be prioritized. The chapter draws from the publication Climate Change and Cities (Cambridge University Press 2018) by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN). The two-phase New York City case study by the Urban Design Climate Lab at the New York Institute of Technology and a team of international urban design climate experts illustrates how this emerging expertise can be replicated and implemented worldwide. Its focus on configuring people-centered public spaces that enhance energy efficiency and improve public health draws from four urban climate factors: improving efficiency of urban systems, both in energy and transportation; optimizing the form and layout of urban districts to enhance ventilation; promoting appropriate building materials with high reflectivity; and increasing green and blue urban infrastructure. The chapter highlights a set of tools and methods to measure success.

Resiliency↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought

This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC3) chapter builds on the projections developed by the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) (Horton et al., 2015). It confirms NPCC2 projections as those of record for the City of New York, presents new methodology related to climate extremes, and describes new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. These may be used by the City of New York as it continues to develop flexible adaptation pathways to cope with climate change. The main topics of the climate science chapter are: (1) Comparison of observed temperature and precipitation trends to NPCC2 2015 projections. (2) New methodology for analysis of historical and future projections of heatwaves, humidity, and cold snaps. (3) Improved characterization of observed heavy downpours. (4) Characterization of observed drought using paleoclimate data. (5) Suggested methods for next generation climate risk information.

Gonzalez, Jorge E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions

Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial–estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the delta approach (+ 19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+ 9% and + 11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2024

Global Nitrogen Needs to Improve Wheat Yield Under Climate Change

Increasing global food demand will require more food production without further exceeding the planetary boundaries, while at the same time adapting to climate change. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models, with improved yield traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes to quantify potential yield gains and associated N requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved yield traits increased yield by 16% with current N fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential, a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil N availability and N use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Nitrogen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental microbiome engineering for the mitigation of climate change

Abstract Environmental microbiome engineering is emerging as a potential avenue for climate change mitigation. In this process, microbial inocula are introduced to natural microbial communities to tune activities that regulate the long‐term stabilization of carbon in ecosystems. In this review, we outline the process of environmental engineering and synthesize key considerations about ecosystem functions to target, means of sourcing microorganisms, strategies for designing microbial inocula, methods to deliver inocula, and the factors that enable inocula to establish within a resident community and modify an ecosystem function target. Recent work, enabled by high‐throughput technologies and modeling approaches, indicate that microbial inocula designed from the top‐down, particularly through directed evolution, may generally have a higher chance of establishing within existing microbial communities than other historical approaches to microbiome engineering. We address outstanding questions about the determinants of inocula establishment and provide suggestions for further research about the possibilities and challenges of environmental microbiome engineering as a tool to combat climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microorganisms, climate change, and the Sustainable Development Goals: progress and challenges

The forthcoming UN summit marks the halfway point to 2030 and presents an important milestone in global efforts to address various challenges, including those related to climate change and environmental preservation. The UN SDGs include several related to microorganisms and climate change. Importantly, microbiology research is key to understanding and mitigating climate change, and in maintaining the health of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (SDGs 13, 14 and 15).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Role of the ocean in climate changes

The present program aimed at the study of ocean climate change is prepared by a group of scientists from State Oceanographic Institute, Academy of Science of Russia, Academy of Science of Ukraine and Moscow State University. It appears to be a natural evolution of ideas and achievements that have been developed under national and international ocean research projects such as SECTIONS, WOCE, TOGA, JGOFS and others. The two primary goals are set in the program ROCC. (1) Quantitative description of the global interoceanic 'conveyor' and it's role in formation of the large scale anomalies in the North Atlantic. The objectives on the way to this goal are: to get the reliable estimates of year-to-year variations of heat and water exchange between the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere; to establish and understand the physics of long period variations in meridianal heat and fresh water transport (MHT and MFWT) in the Atlantic Ocean; to analyze the general mechanisms, that form the MHT and MFWT in low latitudes (Ekman flux), middle latitudes (western boundary currents) and high latitudes (deep convection) of the North Atlantic; to establish and to give quantitative description of the realization of global changes in SST, surface salinity, sea level and sea ice data. (2) Development of the observational system pointed at tracing the climate changes in the North Atlantic. This goal merges the following objectives: to find the proper sites that form the inter annual variations of MHT; to study the deep circulation in the 'key' points; to develop the circulation models reflecting the principle features of interoceanic circulation; and to define global and local response of the atmosphere circulation to large scale processes in the Atlantic Ocean.

Gulev, Sergey K.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Power system planning aims at ensuring that sufficient supply- and demand-side assets exist to meet electricity demand at all times. For a Texas electric power system with high wind and solar penetrations, we quantify how climate change will affect supply and demand during three types of high stress periods for the power grid: high demand hours, high net demand hours, and high system ramp hours. We specifically quantify effects on demand, reductions in available thermal capacity (i.e. thermal deratings), wind and solar generation, and net demand. We estimate each using meteorological variables from five climate change projections (2041-2050) assuming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and from a reference period (1996-2005). All five projections indicate that climate change will increase demand by up to 2 GWh during high demand hours (4% of demand in the reference period) and increase net demand by up to 3 GWh during high net demand periods (6% of net demand in the reference period). All five projections also indicate thermal deratings will increase during high demand and net demand periods by up to 2 GWh and high net demand ramps will increase by up to 2 GW. Overall, our results indicate compounding effects of climate change in Texas will necessitate greater investment in peak and flexible capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗