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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
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NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America

Over the last two decades, southwestern North America (SWNA) has been in the grip of one of the most severe droughts of the last 1,200 years, with one third to nearly one half of its severity attributable to climate change. We analyze how the risk of extreme soil moisture droughts in SWNA, analogous to the most severe 21-year (≥ in magnitude to 2000–2020) and single-year (≥ in magnitude to 2002) events of the last several decades, changes in projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By the end of the 21st century, SWNA experiences robust (R ≥ 0.80) soil moisture drying and substantial increases in extreme single-year drought risk that scale strongly with warming, spanning an 8%–26% probability of occurrence across +2–4 K. Notably, our results show that 21-year droughts analogous to 2000–2020 are up to 5 times more likely than extreme single-year droughts under all levels of warming (≈50%). These high levels of 21-year drought risk are largely invariant across scenarios because of large spring precipitation declines in half the models, shifting SWNA into a drier mean state. Despite projections of this sweeping and ostensibly inevitable increase in 21-year drought risk, climate mitigation reduces their severity by reducing the magnitude of extreme single-year droughts during these events. Our results emphasize both the importance of preparing SWNA for imminent increases in persistent drought events and constraining projected precipitation uncertainty to better resolve future long-term drought risk.

drought↗
NASA NTRS1980

The astronomical theory of climatic change on Mars

The response of Martian climate to changes in solar energy deposition caused by variations of the Martian orbit and obliquity is examined. A systematic study is presented of the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide, water, and dust to provide a complete picture of the climate for various orbital configurations. A new theory for the formation of the polar laminae is developed on the basis of this systematic examination. For the present orbital configuration and climate of Mars, it is shown that regolith damping of the seasonal CO2 cycle is unlikely; the mean atmospheric pressure is probably in equilibrium with the regolith; the low albedo of the north H2O polar cap can be explained by an admixture of 85% ice and 15% dust; and the albedo of the polar caps and the polar heat budget are very sensitive to small variations in dust deposition.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Use of Sage Water Vapor Data for Investigating Climate Change Issues

SAGE water vapor data has proven valuable for addressing several of the important issues in climate change research. It has been used to investigate how the upper troposphere water vapor responds to warming and convection, a key question in understanding the water vapor feedback to anthropogenic global warming. In the case of summer versus winter differences, SAGE results showed that the upper tropospheric relative humidity remained approximately constant; this result was in general agreement with how a GCM handled the seasonal difference, and gave credence to the argument that the GCM was not overestimating the water vapor feedback associated with convection. In addition, the convection-water vapor relationship was investigated further using SAGE water vapor and ISCCP cloud data. The results showed that upper tropospheric drying did appear to occur simultaneously with deep convective events in the tropics, only to be replaced by moistening a few hours later, associated (most likely) with the reevaporation of moisture from anvil clouds. The total effect was, again, a moistening of the upper troposphere associated with convection. Calculation of the actual trends in upper tropospheric moisture is a potential goal for SAGE data usage; trends calculated with radiosonde data, or instruments calibrated with radiosonde data have the problem of the effect of changing radiosonde instruments. SAGE data have in effect been used to compare different radiosondes through comparisons, and could continue to do so. SAGE 3 should also help clarify the absolute accuracy of SAGE retrievals in the troposphere. and its consequences. Model results show that water vapor increases can help explain the observations of stratospheric cooling, along with increasing C02 and ozone reduction. SAGE has been shown to provide trends similar to those of some other satellite and in situ retrievals, with increasing water vapor over time. However, SAGE is impacted by aerosol contamination which must be removed from the data; approaches used in the past will be reviewed. The SAGE water vapor errors, if taken literally, would make it hard to justify using SAGE data for such trends, and the error bars must be investigated. Stratospheric water vapor increases, like tropospheric increases, would lead to noticeable warming at the surface, and their changes must be quantified.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

Antarctic↗
NASA NTRS2014

Erratum To: Indigenous Frameworks for Observing and Responding to Climate Change in Alaska

In section 5, item 1 of this article it is stated that: A recent shift in decision-making authority from the politically appointed Board of Game to the Subsistence Division of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game should make these decisions about hunting regulations more responsive to local observations and needs. We now recognize that this shift in regulatory authority to ADF&G never occurred. We hereby correct this error so that wildlife users in Alaska do not come to ADF&G with expectations that this agency has authority to adjust hunting regulations to accommodate climate change.

Alaska↗
NASA NTRS2011

Analyzing the Effects of Climate Change on Sea Surface Temperature in Monitoring Coral Reef Health in the Florida Keys Using Sea Surface Temperature Data

This presentation discusses use of 4 kilometer satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) data to monitor and assess coral reef areas of the Florida Keys. There are growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on coral reef systems throughout the world. Satellite remote sensing technology is being used for monitoring coral reef areas with the goal of understanding the climatic and oceanic changes that can lead to coral bleaching events. Elevated SST is a well-documented cause of coral bleaching events. Some coral monitoring studies have used 50 km data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to study the relationships of sea surface temperature anomalies to bleaching events. In partnership with NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries and the University of South Florida's Institute for Marine Remote Sensing, this project utilized higher resolution SST data from the Terra's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and AVHRR. SST data for 2000-2010 was employed to compute sea surface temperature anomalies within the study area. The 4 km SST anomaly products enabled visualization of SST levels for known coral bleaching events from 2000-2010.

Jones, Jason↗
NASA NTRS1999

Predicting Decade-to-Century Climate Change: Prospects for Improving Models

Recent research has led to a greatly increased understanding of the uncertainties in today's climate models. In attempting to predict the climate of the 21st century, we must confront not only computer limitations on the affordable resolution of global models, but also a lack of physical realism in attempting to model key processes. Until we are able to incorporate adequate treatments of critical elements of the entire biogeophysical climate system, our models will remain subject to these uncertainties, and our scenarios of future climate change, both anthropogenic and natural, will not fully meet the requirements of either policymakers or the public. The areas of most-needed model improvements are thought to include air-sea exchanges, land surface processes, ice and snow physics, hydrologic cycle elements, and especially the role of aerosols and cloud-radiation interactions. Of these areas, cloud-radiation interactions are known to be responsible for much of the inter-model differences in sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Recently, we have diagnostically evaluated several current and proposed model cloud-radiation treatments against extensive field observations. Satellite remote sensing provides an indispensable component of the observational resources. Cloud-radiation parameterizations display a strong sensitivity to vertical resolution, and we find that vertical resolutions typically used in global models are far from convergence. We also find that newly developed advanced parameterization schemes with explicit cloud water budgets and interactive cloud radiative properties are potentially capable of matching observational data closely. However, it is difficult to evaluate the realism of model-produced fields of cloud extinction, cloud emittance, cloud liquid water content and effective cloud droplet radius until high-quality measurements of these quantities become more widely available. Thus, further progress will require a combination of theoretical and modeling research, together with intensified emphasis on both in situ and space-based remote sensing observations.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: II. Spatial and Temporal Homogeneity of Satellite Data Retrieval Due to Systematic Effects in Atmospheric Correction Processors

The established procedure to access the quality of atmospheric correction processors and their underlying algorithms is the comparison of satellite data products with related in-situ measurements. Although this approach addresses the accuracy of derived geophysical properties in a straight forward fashion, it is also limited in its ability to catch systematic sensor and processor dependent behaviour of satellite products along the scan-line, which might impair the usefulness of the data in spatial analyses. The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) aims to create an ocean colour dataset on a global scale to meet the demands of the ecosystem modelling community. The need for products with increasing spatial and temporal resolution that also show as little systematic and random errors as possible, increases. Due to cloud cover, even temporal means can be influenced by along-scanline artefacts if the observations are not balanced and effects cannot be cancelled out mutually. These effects can arise from a multitude of results which are not easily separated, if at all. Among the sources of artefacts, there are some sensor-specific calibration issues which should lead to similar responses in all processors, as well as processor-specific features which correspond with the individual choices in the algorithms. A set of methods is proposed and applied to MERIS data over two regions of interest in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific Gyre. The normalised water leaving reflectance products of four atmospheric correction processors, which have also been evaluated in match-up analysis, is analysed in order to find and interpret systematic effects across track. These results are summed up with a semi-objective ranking and are used as a complement to the match-up analysis in the decision for the best Atmospheric Correction (AC) processor. Although the need for discussion remains concerning the absolutes by which to judge an AC processor, this example demonstrates clearly, that relying on the match-up analysis alone can lead to misjudgement.

Ocean Colour↗
NASA NTRS1992

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Koblinsky, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases - An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change

Many mechanisms, including variations in solar radiation and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, compete with anthropogenic greenhouse gases as causes of global climate change. Comparisons of available data show that solar variability will not counteract greenhouse warming and that future observations will need to be made to quantify the role of tropospheric aerosols, for example.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Progressive Climate Change on Titan: Implications for Habitability

Titan's landscape is profoundly shaped by its atmosphere and comparable in magnitude perhaps with only the Earth and Mars amongst the worlds of the Solar System. Like the Earth, climate dictates the intensity and relative roles of fluvial and aeolian activity from place to place and over geologic time. Thus Titan's landscape is the record of climate change. We have investigated three broad classes of Titan climate evolution hypotheses (Steady State, Progressive, and Cyclic), regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We favor the Progressive hypotheses, which we will outline here, then discuss their implication for habitability.

implication for habitability↗
NASA NTRS2013

Emerging and Reemeriging Human Bunyavirus Infections and Climate Change

The Bunyaviridae family includes a growing number of viruses that have contributed to the burden of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases around the globe. Many of these viruses cause severe clinical outcomes in human and animal populations, the results of which can be detrimental to public health and the economies of affected communities. The threat to endemic and non-native regions is particularly high, and national and international public health agencies are often on alert. Many of the bunyaviruses cause severe clinical disease including hemorrhage, organ failure, and death leading to their high-risk classification. Hantaviruses and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) (genus Phlebovirus) are National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Category A priority pathogens in the United States. Viral hemorrhagic fevers, a classification that includes many bunyaviruses, are immediately notifiable in the European Union. The emergence of new and reemerging bunyaviruses has resulted in numerous human and animal fatalities. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in East Africa (1997/1998, 2006/2007), Sudan (2007), Southern Africa (2008-2010), Kenya (1997/1998, 2006/2007) (Anyamba et al., 2009, 2010; Breiman et al., 2010; Grobbelaar et al., 2011; Woods et al., 2002) and Saudi Arabia & Yemen (2000, 2010) (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2000; Hjelle and Glass, 2000; Madani et al., 2003) and the emergence of Sin Nombre virus (1993) (Hjelle and Glass, 2000) and most recently Schmallenberg virus (2011) (DEFRA, 2012) are prime examples of the devastating and worldwide toll bunyaviruses have on health and economies. Climate variability (precipitation and temperature in particular) greatly influence the ecological conditions that drive arboviral disease outbreaks across the globe. Several human and animal disease outbreaks have been influenced by changes in climate associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon including the bunyaviruses RVFV and Sin Nombre (an etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS)), as well as Murray Valley encephalitis, chikungunya, and malaria to name but a few (Anyamba et al., 2009; Bouma and Dye, 1997; Chretien et al., 2007; Engelthaler et al., 1999; Kovats et al., 2003; Linthicum et al., 1999; Nicholls, 1986). Most bunyaviruses exhibit episodic outbreak patterns with seasonal or annual trends dependent upon climate conditions, vector abundance, and the proximity of a susceptible population. The implications for continued climate change are dire, especially with regard to vector-borne diseases, many of which can cause severe morbidity, sequelae, and death. Increased rainfall and widening endemicity as a result of climate change, compounded by the emergence of new viruses, poses a serious threat to a greater geographic range beyond the regions of endemicity.

Bunyavirus↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ground Water and Climate Change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

Johnson, Donald R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Oceanic Tidal Mixing As a Contributor to Milankovitch-scale Climate Change

We propose that changes in the magnitude of oceanic tidal mixing on long time scales is an important, but previously unrecognized, contributor to global climate change. it is well known that Earth's orbital and rotational state changes significantly on 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) year time scales, and that this influences the spatial and temporal pattern of incident radiation. It is widely supposed that climatic variations on these same time scales are, in large part, a response of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system to this radiative forcing. Our proposal is that variations in the luni-solar tidal potential, induced by these same orbital and rotational variations, influences oceanic mixing and thus modulates meridional heat transport, by amounts which are competitive with the radiative forcing. There are some obvious differences between tidal potential and insolation. First is that the Sun and Moon both contribute to tides, whereas the radiation is entirely of solar origin. Second is that the Earth is transparent to gravity but opaque to radiation. Clipping associated with this opacity makes the radiation pattern temporal spectrum rather more complex than the tidal spectrum. A third point is that solar radiation directly delivers energy to Earth's surface whereas tidal mixing will only expedite lateral transport of heat in association with oceanic thermohaline circulation. The diurnal average insolation pattern is best parameterized via a Fourier series in time of year and Legendre polynomials in sine of latitude. Our present focus will be on the annual average terms. The Legendre degree n=0 term describes the global average insolation, and is nearly constant. The degree n=l term describes differences between northern and southern hemispheres, and the annual mean is zero. The degree n=2 term is the main contributor to the equator to pole variations, and varies with obliquity and orbital eccentricity, with the obliquity variation dominating. The lowest order decomposition of the tidal potential recognizes 3 constituents: semi-diurnal, diurnal, and long period, with solar and lunar contributions to each. Our present focus will be on long term variations in the mean square amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent, with averaging over all the short period variations. For the solar tide that includes the day and year. For the lunar tide it includes the day, month, year, and the apsidal (8.85 year) and nodal (18.6 year) periods. We present calculations of the variations in radiative and tidal forcing for the past 3 million years. The two signals are quite similar. Both vary by approximately 1% of their respective mean values, are dominated by obliquity variations, and exhibit only secondary influence from orbital eccentricity.

Munk, Walter↗