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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Support Tool for Risk Assessment & Maneuver Planning in Collision Avoidance

As the quantity of orbital debris continues to grow, so too does the rate of conjunction messages that suggest possible collisions between high value payloads and debris. The abundance of these conjunction messages, and eventual misses, has led to a culture of ignored alerts, and an increase in satellite operation costs as a result of the frequent need to plan resources for maneuver planning and execution. The loss of “trust” in conjunction alerts is due to the poorly characterized evolution in probability of collision (Pc) as time approaches the time of closest approach (TCA) between two objects, as well as the interpretation of Pc in the context of maneuver planning. To address these problems, and in collaboration with the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program, the Industrial Sciences Group has developed a novel Maneuver Decision Support System (MDSS) to assist satellite operations in conjunction assessment and Maneuver planning. It provides a meaningful and intuitive Urgency metric for actionable maneuver decisions, based on the physical dynamics of conjunctions. It is based on a forecast of the evolution of Pc over time and represents an advance over current methods that are in use for satellite conjunction monitoring and planning. The result is to give satellite operators a validated decision support systems to plan for maneuver execution or mitigation or monitoring up to 3 days before TCA.

Decision Support Tool↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

NASA NTRS2017

Collision Avoidance Short Course Part I: Theory

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2017

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA Role in Changing Space Flight Environment

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner/operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to "avoid the avoidable"â€”namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

avoidance↗

NASA NTRS1994

DE 1 VLF observations during Activny wave injection experiments

We report on coordinated high-altitude satellite observations in support of one of the first space-based very low frequency (VLF) wave injection experiments, namely the USSR Aktivny mission. The Aktivny satellite (A) was designed to carry a VLF transmitter (nominal frequency approximately 10 kHz, transmitter power approximately 10 kW) coupled to a 20-m-diameter loop antenna in a nearly polar orbit (83 deg inclination, apogee approximately 2500 km, perigee approximately 500 km). We focus our attention on conjunction experiments between the Aktivny and DE 1 satellites. Because of problems in the deployment of the loop antenna, the radiated power capability of the antenna was significantly reduced. Although this substantially reduced the expectation of receiving detectable signal levels on the satellite, the DE 1/Aktivny conjunction experiments were nevertheless carried out as a means of possibly placing an upper limit on the radiated power. During the period November 1989 through April 1990, a total of 10 DE 1/Aktivny wave injection sessions were conducted. During each session the Aktivny transmitter operated at 10.537 kHz with 1 s On - 1 s Off format, for a period of 6 min centered around the conjunction time. During three conjunction periods (December 12, 26, and 27, 1989) both DE 1 and Aktivny were in the southern hemisphere, and DE 1 was at relatively low altitudes (ranging from 6211 to 14,810 km), thus providing the best conjunction possibilities according to the ray tracing criteria developed above. On most days, Omega transmitter signals as well as commonly occuring natural wave phenomena such as whistlers (0(+)) and hiss were clearly seen well above the background level, but there was no evidence of the Aktivny 1 s On/ 1 s Off pattern. Though no Aktivny signals were detected by the LWR on the DE 1 satellite, the experimental constraints allow us to place an upper limit on the total power radiated by the Aktivny transmitter in the whistler-mode. Using experimental parameters, and the minimum detectable signal level of 0.05 muV/m for LWR, we find the upper limit on the total power radiated by the Aktivny satellite in the whistler-mode to be approximately 10 mW. Several recommendations for future space-based wave injection experiments are presented.

Sonwalkar, V. S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

USA Space Debris Environment, Operations, and Research Updates

Space Missions in 2017 Earth Satellite Population Collision Avoidance Maneuvers Post mission Disposal of U.S.A. Spacecraft Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) A total of 86 space launches placed more than 400 spacecraft into Earth orbits during 2017, following the trend of increase over the past decade NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 The 2014-15 NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) study on the micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) assessment for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) provided the following findings - Millimeter-sized orbital debris pose the highest penetration risk to most operational spacecraft in LEO - The most effective means to collect direct measurement data on millimetersized debris above 600 km altitude is to conduct in situ measurements - There is currently no in situ data on such small debris above 600 km altitude Since the orbital debris population follows a power-law size distribution, there are many more millimeter-sized debris than the large tracked objects - Current conjunction assessments and collision avoidance maneuvers against the tracked objects (which are typically 10 cm and larger) only address a small fraction (<1%) of the mission-ending risk from orbital debris To address the millimeter-sized debris data gap above 600 km, NASA has recently developed an innovative in situ measurement instrument - the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS

Liou, J.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner/operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to "avoid the avoidable" namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

Newman, Lauri↗

NASA NTRS2014

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Updated Efficiency Analysis Utilizing a Highly Parallel Simulation Approach

This paper provides an updated efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme. LightForce aims to prevent collisions on warning by utilizing photon pressure from ground based, commercial off the shelf lasers. Past research has shown that a few ground-based systems consisting of 10 kilowatt class lasers directed by 1.5 meter telescopes with adaptive optics could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. Our simulation approach utilizes the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue in LEO for a given day as initial input. Least-squares fitting of a TLE time series is used for an improved orbit estimate. We then calculate the probability of collision for all LEO objects in the catalogue for a time step of the simulation. The conjunctions that exceed a threshold probability of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the probability of collision and evaluate the efficiency of the system. This paper describes new simulations with three updated aspects: 1) By utilizing a highly parallel simulation approach employing hundreds of processors, we have extended our analysis to a much broader dataset. The simulation time is extended to one year. 2) We analyze not only the efficiency of LightForce on conjunctions that naturally occur, but also take into account conjunctions caused by orbit perturbations due to LightForce engagements. 3) We use a new simulation approach that is regularly updating the LightForce engagement strategy, as it would be during actual operations. In this paper we present our simulation approach to parallelize the efficiency analysis, its computational performance and the resulting expected efficiency of the LightForce collision avoidance system. Results indicate that utilizing a network of four LightForce stations with 20 kilowatt lasers, 85% of all conjunctions with a probability of collision Pc > 10 (sup -6) can be mitigated.

conjunction analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

LightForce Photon-pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 10kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planed simulation approach for that effort.

conjunction analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

To date, satellite conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis has largely embraced the probability of collision (Pc) as the omnibus metric to evaluate collision likelihood, and its use in such assessments has mostly been straightforward: at the point at which a conjunction mitigation decision is required, the calculated Pc is compared to a threshold; and if the calculated Pc exceeds that threshold, then a mitigation action is warranted. With only minor variation, this approach is employed by major CA risk assessment centers (e.g., NASA, EUSST, CNES, JAXA) and is advanced as the preferred method in the published CA best practices handbooks. Despite this near unanimity of operational practice, there is a major strain of secondary literature critical of the Pc and willing to propose alternatives. Alfano (2005) pointed out the ability of the Pc to underrepresent the risk in certain situations and counselled a maximum Pc construct. Carpenter (2017, 2019) reiterated this criticism and proposed using instead a confidence interval on the miss distance. Balch et al. (2019) identified what they argued was a defect in the entire Bayesian Pc construct and believed that the use of a more conservative methodology based on covariance ellipsoid overlap was necessary. Delande (2022) introduced the framework of collision “plausibility” to the risk assessment process and sketched out how this might be used operationally. Elkantassi (2022) published a full development of the miss distance confidence interval approach and applied it to several worked examples. While these different approaches to collision risk assessment do differ in their details, they all converge on two central points: first, the Pc’s failure to give an adequate expression of the risk in dilution region situations is a fatal flaw; and second, a conjunction should be presumed risky and in need of mitigation until the evidence of the situation can establish otherwise. These criticisms, if correct, would counsel a number of modifications to current CA operational practice; as such, they force a re-examination of fundamental aspects of the CA problem, including the following: 1. Is the CA risk assessment a probability problem, a statistics problem, or something else? 2. If it is a statistics problem, does it lend itself naturally to a hypothesis test construction? 3. If it can be construed as a hypothesis test, what form should the null hypothesis take, to wit: what constraints exist on the choice of the null hypothesis, what selections are in best alignment with all of the attendant parameters of the problem, and what is implied philosophically by different choices? 4. What are the implications of using the different proposed risk assessment parameters for CA? This question should be answered both in determining how frequently the dilution region situation cited by the critics of the Pc actually appears in an operationally significant manner and the missed detection and false alarm rates of all of the proposed risk assessment metrics, compared both to the Pc and to each other. This paper explores and offers preliminary answers to the above questions, presenting a researched treatment of the philosophical nature of the CA problem and the null hypothesis choice that achieves the greatest consistency with all of the different aspects of operational CA conduct. It then profiles all of the different proposed risk assessment metrics enumerated in the earlier paragraph against an extremely large database of conjunction events at both the 550km and 700km altitudes. The combination of the philosophical exploration of the CA problem and the results of the profiling activity articulates what a risk assessment metric will need to demonstrate, in terms of both innate construction and performance, in order to be a true competitor to the Pc.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS1989

Mechano-caloric cooling device

The mechano-caloric effect is potentially useful in the He II temperature range. Aside from demonstration work, little quantification effort appears to have been known since other refrigeration possibilities have been available for some time. Successful He II use-related system examples are as follows: in space, the utilization of the latent heat of vaporization has been quite successful in vapor-liquid phase separation (VLPS) in conjunction with thermomechanical force application in plugs. In magnet cooling systems, the possibility of using the mechano-caloric cooling effect in conjunction with thermo-mechanical circulation pump schemes, has been assessed (but not quantified yet to the extent desirable). A third example is quoted in conjunction with superfluid wind tunnel studies and liquid helium tow tank for surface vessels respectively. In all of these (partially future) R and D areas, the question of refrigerator effectiveness using the mechano-caloric effect appears to be relevant, possibly in conjunction with questions of reliability and simplicity. The present work is concerned with quantification of phenomena including simplified thermodynamic cycle calculations.

Frederking, T. H. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Effect of Earth and Mars departure delays on human missions to Mars

This study determines the impact on the initial mass in low-Earth orbit (IMLEO) for delaying departure from Mars and Earth by 5, 15, and 30 days, once a nominal mission to Mars has been selected. Additionally, the use of a deep space maneuver (DSM) is attempted to alleviate the IMLEO penalties. Three different classes of missions are analyzed using chemical and nuclear thermal propulsion systems in the 2000-2025 time-frame: opposition, conjunction, and fast-transfer conjunction. The results indicate that Mars and Earth delays can lead to large IMLEO penalties. Opposition and fast-transfer conjunction class missions have the highest IMLEO penalties, upwards of 432.4 mt and 1977.3 mt, respectively. Conjunction class missions, on the other hand, tend to be insensitive to Mars and Earth delays having IMLEO penalties under 103.5 mt. As expected, nuclear thermal propulsion had significantly lower IMLEO penalties as compared to chemical propulsion. The use of a DSM is found not to have a significant impact on reducing the IMLEO penalties. Through this investigation, the effect of off-nominal departure conditions on the overall mission (i.e., IMLEO) can be gained, enabling mission designers to incorporate the influence of off-nominal departure conditions of the interplanetary trajectory in the overall conceptual design process of a Mars transfer vehicle.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An expert system for integrated structural analysis and design optimization for aerospace structures

The results of a research study on the development of an expert system for integrated structural analysis and design optimization is presented. An Object Representation Language (ORL) was developed first in conjunction with a rule-based system. This ORL/AI shell was then used to develop expert systems to provide assistance with a variety of structural analysis and design optimization tasks, in conjunction with procedural modules for finite element structural analysis and design optimization. The main goal of the research study was to provide expertise, judgment, and reasoning capabilities in the aerospace structural design process. This will allow engineers performing structural analysis and design, even without extensive experience in the field, to develop error-free, efficient and reliable structural designs very rapidly and cost-effectively. This would not only improve the productivity of design engineers and analysts, but also significantly reduce time to completion of structural design. An extensive literature survey in the field of structural analysis, design optimization, artificial intelligence, and database management systems and their application to the structural design process was first performed. A feasibility study was then performed, and the architecture and the conceptual design for the integrated 'intelligent' structural analysis and design optimization software was then developed. An Object Representation Language (ORL), in conjunction with a rule-based system, was then developed using C++. Such an approach would improve the expressiveness for knowledge representation (especially for structural analysis and design applications), provide ability to build very large and practical expert systems, and provide an efficient way for storing knowledge. Functional specifications for the expert systems were then developed. The ORL/AI shell was then used to develop a variety of modules of expert systems for a variety of modeling, finite element analysis, and design optimization tasks in the integrated aerospace structural design process. These expert systems were developed to work in conjunction with procedural finite element structural analysis and design optimization modules (developed in-house at SAT, Inc.). The complete software, AutoDesign, so developed, can be used for integrated 'intelligent' structural analysis and design optimization. The software was beta-tested at a variety of companies, used by a range of engineers with different levels of background and expertise. Based on the feedback obtained by such users, conclusions were developed and are provided.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1995

Effect of Departure Delays on Manned Mars Mission Selection

This study determines the effect on the initial mass in low Earth orbit (IMLEO) of delaying departure from Mars and Earth by 5, 15, and 30 days, once a nominal mission to Mars has been selected. Additionally, the use of a deep-space maneuver (DSM) is considered in order to alleviate the IMLEO penalties. Three different classes of missions are analyzed, using chemical and nuclear thermal propulsion systems in the 2000-2025 time frame: opposition, conjunction, and fast-transfer conjunction. The results indicate that Mars and Earth delays can lead to large IMLEO penalties. Opposition and fast-transfer conjunction-class missions have the highest IMLEO penalties, upwards of 432.4 and 1977.3 metric tons (mt), respectively. Conjunction-class missions, on the other hand, tend to be insensitive to Mars and Earth delays, having IMLEO penalties under 103.5 mt. As expected, nuclear thermal propulsion had significantly lower IMLEO penalties than chemical propulsion. The use of a DSM does not significantly reduce the penalties. The results of this study can enable mission designers to incorporate the influence of off-nominal departure conditions of the interplanetary trajectory in the overall conceptual design of a Mars transfer vehicle.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Nonlinear Probability of Collision Tool for the Earth Observing System

The Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft Terra, Aqua, and Aura fly in constellation with several other spacecraft in 705-kilometer mean altitude sun-synchronous orbits. All three spacecraft are operated by the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In 2004, the ESMO project began assessing the probability of collision of the EOS spacecraft with other space objects. In addition to conjunctions with high relative velocities, the collision assessment method for the EOS spacecraft must address conjunctions with low relative velocities during potential collisions between constellation members. Probability of Collision algorithms that are based on assumptions of high relative velocities and linear relative trajectories are not suitable for these situations; therefore an algorithm for handling the nonlinear relative trajectories was developed. This paper describes this algorithm and presents results from its validation for operational use. The probability of collision is typically calculated by integrating a Gaussian probability distribution over the volume swept out by a sphere representing the size of the space objects involved in the conjunction. This sphere is defined as the Hard Body Radius. With the assumption of linear relative trajectories, this volume is a cylinder, which translates into simple limits of integration for the probability calculation. For the case of nonlinear relative trajectories, the volume becomes a complex geometry. However, with an appropriate choice of coordinate systems, the new algorithm breaks down the complex geometry into a series of simple cylinders that have simple limits of integration. This nonlinear algorithm will be discussed in detail in the paper. The nonlinear Probability of Collision algorithm was first verified by showing that, when used in high relative velocity cases, it yields similar answers to existing high relative velocity linear relative trajectory algorithms. The comparison with the existing high velocity/linear theory will also be used to determine at what relative velocity the analysis should use the new nonlinear theory in place of the existing linear theory. The nonlinear algorithm was also compared to a known exact solution for the probability of collision between two objects when the relative motion is strictly circular and the error covariance is spherically symmetric. Figure I shows preliminary results from this comparison by plotting the probabilities calculated from the new algorithm and those from the exact solution versus the Hard Body Radius to Covariance ratio. These results show about 5% error when the Hard Body Radius is equal to one half the spherical covariance magnitude. The algorithm was then combined with a high fidelity orbit state and error covariance propagator into a useful tool for analyzing low relative velocity nonlinear relative trajectories. The high fidelity propagator is capable of using atmospheric drag, central body gravitational, solar radiation, and third body forces to provide accurate prediction of the relative trajectories and covariance evolution. The covariance propagator also includes a process noise model to ensure realistic evolutions of the error covariance. This paper will describe the integration of the nonlinear probability algorithm and the propagators into a useful collision assessment tool. Finally, a hypothetical case study involving a low relative velocity conjunction between members of the Earth Observation System constellation will be presented.

McKinley, David P.↗