Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Capacity Expansion”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climate-Water-Electricity Interactions in the U.S. Under Alternative Decarbonized Futures

The U.S. electric sector is rapidly evolving, with widespread renewable energy deployment, building and transport electrification, and nuanced decarbonization policies. Climate change influences the supply and demand for electricity by altering water resources for cooling and hydropower, thermal plant efficiencies, and heating and cooling demand. This research combines global climate model data, asset-level water and streamflow modeling, and electric sector capacity expansion modeling to study climate-water-electricity interactions across myriad future climate and electricity scenarios that consider electrification and decarbonization using renewable, hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear technologies. Multi-model integration leads to insights into power-water sector interactions and their impacts on grid economics and environmental outcomes.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This, in turn, is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study, we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in enhanced geothermal system binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data, we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost. These results make a case for the inclusion of location-based weather data as inputs to supply curves that are used in capacity expansion models for the prediction of future geothermal deployment scenarios.

ambient temperature↗
DOE OSTI2024

ReEDS Performance Improvement

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is an open-source, spatially explicit, long-term capacity expansion model for the bulk electric power system of the contiguous United States, encompassing multiple scenarios with technological and political assumptions (see https://github.com/NREL/ReEDS-2.0). With the increased needs for capabilities, higher temporal and spatial resolutions to model the evolution of the power system with modern technologies and low-carbon pathways, ReEDS' model solution times have increased significantly from 4-6 hours in 2018 to 18-48+ hours in 2023 . Also, the model size for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios reached 22 and 28 million equations and variables, respectively. These runtimes can be especially challenging under certain scenario settings (e.g., very high temporal or spatial resolution) or with limited computational power. In this presentation, we will discuss several methods we used to improve model runtime, including data preparation, model modification, and solver tuning. The implementation of these methods shrank the model size to 7.2 and 7.3 million equations and variables, respectively. Furthermore, this led to a 77% reduction in the model's run time for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios. We will discuss the process of identifying areas for solve time improvements and how the specific enhancements for the ReEDS model might be applied to other similar large-scale models.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Cooling and Water Treatment for Resilient, Water-Self-Sufficient Data Centers

The continued growth of data center infrastructure is intensifying demand for freshwater resources, particularly in water-stressed regions, and is increasingly limiting sustainable capacity expansion. This work investigates a conceptual hybrid system that integrates freeze desalination with ultrasonic-assisted ice separation to enable on-site production of pure water from diverse sources, including seawater, brackish groundwater, and reclaimed industrial or agricultural wastewater. Simultaneously, the system produces low-temperature cooling streams that enhance heat removal in high power density computing environments. A process-level thermodynamic analysis is performed across a range of boundary and operating conditions, including variations in feed concentration, freezing temperature, and mass flow rate. The results are presented as performance curves relating feedwater concentration and target purified water output to the corresponding intake flow requirements, enabling estimation of source water demand per unit of Information Technology Equipment (ITE) energy consumption (kWh) across varying data center scales and operational scenarios. The corresponding electrical energy consumption for integrated cooling and water treatment is also evaluated as a function of system operating parameters and target water production levels. These results provide a basis for evaluating system feasibility across different conditions and for identifying parameter ranges in which integrated water treatment and cooling improve resource efficiency, thermal performance, and operational flexibility in data centers.

Elhefny, Aly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000284907923)↗
DOE OSTI2023

County-Level Hourly Renewable Capacity Factor Dataset for the ReEDS Model

This dataset contains hourly capacity factors for each renewable resource class and region (in this case, county). Technologies like large-scale utility PV (UPV), onshore wind, offshore wind, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are included. The dataset contains 7 years of hourly weather data (2007-2013) for different sites across the US and is used as one of the inputs to the ReEDS-2.0 model (see the "ReEDS 2.0 GitHub Repository" resource link below), developed by NREL. The weather profiles apply to any capacity that exists or is built in each region and class. This helps calculate the generation that can be provided using these resources. Open, reference, and limited are 3 scenarios based on land-use allowance, derived from the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model developed by NREL, which helps generate supply curves for renewable technologies and assess the maximum potential of renewable resources in a designated area. Each zipped file in this dataset corresponds to a technology and contains the respective land-use scenario files required to run that technology in ReEDS. To use this dataset, download and place the extracted files in the locally cloned ReEDS repository inside one of the folders (inputs/variability/multi_year). After completing this copy, upon running the ReEDS model at the county-level spatial resolution for respective analysis purposes, the program will detect the presence of these files and will not fail.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Market Design to Support Resource Adequacy

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

agent based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System

As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Infrastructure and resource development needs to support a significant expansion of US nuclear capacity

In December 2023, the United States pledged at a United Nations conference to triple nuclear energy by 2050. In May of 2025 a new administration announced plans to quadruple nuclear energy by 2025, setting a new target that requires understanding the key infrastructure and resources needed to achieve large-scale deployment. This study attempts to quantify “what it takes” to deploy an additional 200 GWe of nuclear capacity. It projects demand levels for workforce, fuel, uranium mining and enrichment, waste management, supply chain, land, licensing, and water. Demand growth is also contextualized. For example, the peak number of construction workers required is approximately 215,000, a 37 % increase in the current US utility construction workforce. Up to 80,000 MT/year of mined uranium will be needed, necessitating a 60-fold increase in US mining production or a doubling of global mining if sourced externally. Advanced reactor fuels, uranium mining, and nuclear-grade equipment production would need substantial expansion. Operational workforce, enrichment needs, and licensing submissions also face significant increases. Although water consumption may see relatively lower increases, securing water rights poses unique challenges. This study consolidates various demand metrics in a broad context, highlighting the necessity of early preparations, such as workforce training, to support a tripling of nuclear energy. While it outlines the demand-side requirements, it does not assess the difficulties of ramping up or other supply-side issues. The findings also shed light on the impact of reactor size and reactor technology on various demand metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1979

An illustrative analysis of technological alternatives for satellite communications

The demand for satellite communications services in the domestic market is discussed. Two approaches to increasing system capacity are the expansion of service into frequencies presently allocated but not used for satellite communications, and the development of technologies that provide a greater level of service within the currently used frequency bands. The development of economic models and analytic techniques for evaluating capacity expansion alternatives such as these are presented. The satellite orbit spectrum problem, and also outlines of some suitable analytic approaches are examined. Illustrative analysis of domestic communications satellite technology options for providing increased levels of service are also examined. The analysis illustrates the use of probabilities and decision trees in analyzing alternatives, and provides insight into the important aspects of the orbit spectrum problem that would warrant inclusion in a larger scale analysis.

Metcalfe, M. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Peaking Potential of Long-Duration Energy Storage in the United States Power System

In this work, we investigated the peaking potential for storage with durations of 4 h up to durations of 168 h (1 week). The peaking potential for a given storage duration is the amount of storage that can be added to a power system before that storage can no longer serve the peak net demand period at full rated capacity. We found that for the United States, 168 h of storage would be sufficient to serve about 27 % of peak demand, or about 215 GW in the current system. However, more than one-half of this amount could be served by storage with 12 h or less of capacity. As deployment of wind and solar grows, the peaking potential increases significantly, and under decarbonization scenarios, approximately one-half of the peak demand could be served by storage of up to 168 h; but again, the majority of this storage could be with durations of up to 12 h. The potential is also driven by the mix of wind and solar, and by storage efficiency, with the deployment of solar having the largest impact for both storage peaking potential and the mix of durations.

capacity expansion↗
NASA NTRS1989

Lunar power system summary of studies for the lunar enterprise task force NASA-office of exploration

The capacity of global power systems must be increased by a factor of ten to provide the predicted power needs of electric power by the year 2050. The Lunar Power System (LPS) would collect solar energy at power bases located on opposing limbs of the moon as seen from Earth. LPS can provide dependable, economic, renewable, and environmentally benign solar energy to Earth. A preliminary engineering and cash flow model of the LPS was developed. Results are shown for a system scaled to a peak capacity of 355 GWe on Earth and to provide 13,600 GWe-Yrs of energy over a 70 year life cycle of construction and full operation. The growth in capacity of the reference system from start of installation on the moon in 2005 to completion of its nominal life cycle in the year 2070 is shown. World needs for power could be accommodated by expansion in capacity of the reference LPS beyond 344 GWe. This would be done by steadily incorporating newer technology during full operation and by establishing additional bases. The results presented encourage consideration of a faster paced program than is assumed herein.

Criswell, David R.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Stresses, strains, and surface pressures in the lung caused by its weight.

In an effort to understand how the lung is deformed by its own weight, we have analyzed the distribution of regional expansion, stresses, and surface pressures in a theoretical elastic lung-shaped model using the technique of finite elements. In the upright position, the parenchyma was most expanded at the apex and least at the base. Stresses in both the vertical and lateral directions were maximal at the apex. As the lung was inflated from very low volumes to total lung capacity, parenchymal expansion and stress at the apex first decreased, then increased. This behavior can be explained by the increasing rigidity of the expanded lung which enabled it to resist distortion by its own weight. At functional residual capacity, the stress at the apex was near its minimum. The differences in intrapleural pressure down the lung were volume dependent, increasing at very low volumes. In the inverted lung, the regional differences in stress, strain, and surface pressures were less marked because of the shape of the chest.

West, J. B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

DFT Calculation of Thermal Expansion within Debye-Grüneisen Framework Made Simple and Accurate

The density functional theory (DFT) based Debye-Grüneisen approach is a computational method used to calculate the thermodynamic properties of materials by relating the volume dependence of the Debye frequency to the Grüneisen parameter. In this study, we propose a new model to describe the volume dependence of the Grüneisen parameter. This model offers a simple yet accurate approach to predict the thermal expansion of materials within the framework of the Debye-Grüneisen theory. Specifically, for pure elements or species used as a reference system, we calibrated the parameters to reproduce the experimental coefficient of thermal expansion, heat capacity, and entropy. For compounds with arbitrary compositions, the parameters are determined by taking the arithmetic or geometric average of those obtained from the pure elements or species based on their composition. We then compared the model prediction with experiments. This allowed for a comprehensive characterization of the thermal expansion behavior of various materials.

Wang, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ab-Initio molecular dynamics simulations of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 and ternary NaCl-ThCl 4 -UCl 3 molten salts

Molten salt reactor (MSR) with Thorium (Th) fuel cycle has attracted growing attention due to its merits such as safety, low radioactive waste production, and non-proliferation. The design and safe operation of MSR rely on a thorough understanding of the thermophysical properties of molten salts over a wide range of composition and temperature. However, experimental data of Th-based molten salts are limited due to the inherent challenges of dealing with corrosive molten salts and the radioactive nature of actinides. Here, in this work, thermophysical properties including density, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficient, and mixing energy of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 and ternary NaCl-ThCl 4 -UCl 3 molten salts are explored using ab-initio molecular dynamic simulations (AIMD) with the dDsC dispersion correction. The calculated mixing energy of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 exhibits a minimum close to the eutectic composition. The heat capacity of the mixtures is linearly dependent on the mole fraction of each component. 7-fold and 6-fold coordinated Th complexes are dominant in the mixtures. 8-fold coordinated Th complex increases with ThCl 4 fraction due to the formation of network structures. The average coordination number of Th exhibits a minimum near the eutectic composition. The minimum mixing energy for the ternary mixtures is observed in systems with a composition close to [NaCl] 0.5 [ThCl 4 ] 0.25 [UCl 3 ] 0.25 . The density positively deviates from the ideal solution in mixtures near this composition. These results are important to fill the data and knowledge gap of ThCl 4 molten salts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

How the Availability and Cost of Water Could Influence the Future Buildout of the Electric Grid in the U.S.

The power sector is the largest water withdrawer in the U.S., and water availability can drive both its investment and operating decisions. Given a range of uncertain trends in the power sector, it's important to consider how water demands might evolve from both generation and load change and how the cost and availability of water might impact water source decisions. Doing so requires a detailed consideration of technology-specific water needs, water availability characterization, and scenario exploration. This presentation describes capabilities to do so in unprecedented detail and some preliminary findings about how water constraints could influence power sector expansion.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗