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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intercomparison of flood inundation models across land use types and hydrological flood stages

Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) model selection is a key operational decision because accurate, rapid mapping underpins early warning and resource allocation. FIM performance is context-dependent and can vary with hydrograph phase, land-use/land-cover (LULC), and the evaluation benchmark. Intercomparison studies typically assess a single near-peak snapshot against one reference dataset. Here, we provide a context-stratified intercomparison across (i) multiple hydrograph phases, (ii) LULC classes, and (iii) benchmark types, for five FIM approaches spanning a wide range of physical complexity and operational cost (TRITON, LISFLOOD-FP, HEC-RAS 2D, ARC-Curve2Flood, and OWP HAND-FIM). We use the Hurricane Matthew flood (2016) in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA, as a case study. Using high-resolution remote sensing-derived flood inundation maps, hand-labeled points, and building footprints, we assess model skill across two rising and two falling hydrograph limbs and across major LULC types. Results show that model rankings shift systematically across contexts: LISFLOOD-FP ranks highest in three of four flood phases, while TRITON leads during one rising limb phase; LISFLOOD-FP performs best in vegetated areas, whereas HEC-RAS improves relative performance in agricultural and urban areas; and benchmark choice influences conclusions, with LISFLOOD-FP performing best for flooded-building detection in the late falling limb, while TRITON ranks highest against hand-labeled points. We also report representative wall-clock runtimes for each workflow to provide use-case context for operational feasibility. Together, these results offer transferable guidance for model selection and for designing large-scale, benchmark-aware FIM intercomparison studies.

Nikrou, Parvaneh [University of Alabama]↗
DOE OSTI2025

One Galaxy Sample to Rule Them All: Halo Occupation Distribution Modeling of DES Year 3 Source Galaxies

Abstract For the joint analysis of second-order weak-lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called 3 × 2 analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes the uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a “lens-equal-source” analysis significantly improves the self-calibration of photo- z systematics, leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim of enabling a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales, we investigate the halo–galaxy connection of DES Year 3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry to U niverse M achine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, nontrivial central incompleteness, and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the U niverse M achine posterior, with added uncertainties in the measured Dark Energy Survey photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy–halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to ∼2% accuracy from redshift z = 0.1−1.3 that models the dependence of this HOD on (1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry and (2) uncertainties in the U niverse M achine predictions.

Salcedo, Andrés N. (ORCID:000000031420527X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the factors influencing accuracy, interpretability, and reproducibility in the use of machine learning classifiers in biology to enable standardization

The complexity and variability of biological data has promoted the increased use of machine learning methods to understand processes and predict outcomes. These same features complicate reliable, reproducible, interpretable, and responsible use of such methods, resulting in questionable relevance of the derived. outcomes. Here we systematically explore challenges associated with applying machine learning to predict and understand biological processes using a well- characterized in vitro experimental system. We evaluated factors that vary while applying machine learning classifers: (1) type of biochemical signature (transcripts vs. proteins), (2) data curation methods (pre- and post-processing), and (3) choice of machine learning classifier. Using accuracy, generalizability, interpretability, and reproducibility as metrics, we found that the above factors significantly mod- ulate outcomes even within a simple model system. Our results caution against the unregulated use of machine learning methods in the biological sciences, and strongly advocate the need for data standards and validation tool-kits for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing Condensed-Phase Structure and Dynamics in Hierarchical Zeolites and Nanosheets for Catalytic Upgradation of Biomass (Final Report)

Understanding complex reaction pathways in systems governed by multi-scale collective interactions across time and length scales remains a central scientific challenge. This project was guided by the hypothesis that the interplay among oligomers, solvents, and active sites can be tuned by a suitable choice of solvation environment and pore architecture in solid-acid catalysts to direct chemical transformations relevant to biomass conversion. Zeolites and zeolite nanosheets were used as model platforms, allowing for the interaction of macromolecules with the surface of the zeolite nanosheets and with smaller pores that host catalytically active sites. To investigate these coupled phenomena, we employ a multi-scale computational framework that integrates molecular-level descriptions with advanced sampling approaches to capture key physical and chemical interactions. Our work through this project improved fundamental understanding of how reactants and solid-acid catalysts interact in solvent-rich environments, thereby enabling the rational design of catalytic systems that upgrade biomass with enhanced selectivity and energy efficiency. In addition, the project developed advanced sampling methodologies critical for disentangling complex, reactive processes in multi-component catalytic environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Ion Dynamics with Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory: Towards Predictive Solar Cell Modeling

This project focussed on two aspects of computational modeling with a view toward application for photovoltaic design: (i) increased reliability of exchange-correlation functionals in time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) (a method of choice of the calculation of electronic spectra and dynamics), especially for time-resolved non-perturbative dynamics, and (ii) the development of a practical but rigorously-based method for coupling electronic and nuclear motion via the exact-factorization (EF) approach (a relatively new framework for developing approximations).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial Data Workflow Orchestration and Architecture

In an era characterized by explosive growth in geospatial data, the selection of appropriate technologies for data storage, processing, and orchestration is critical for organizations aiming to maintain competitive advantages. This white paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has effectively employed various cloud technologies, including containerized applications, container orchestrators, and workflow orchestrators, to develop robust geospatial data processing solutions. We explore the fundamental concepts behind these technologies and compare multiple deployment models tailored to diverse use cases. Our findings conclude that while Kubernetes has emerged as the preferred platform for truly scalable and fault-tolerant production workflows, the choice of workflow orchestration tool requires careful consideration of team needs, pipeline complexity, and deployment environments. This paper aims to serve as a strategic guide for organizations leveraging geospatial data, articulating the balance between technology choices and practical implementation to enhance workflow efficacy and scalability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Universal Model of Cation Effects in Electrocatalysis

Electrolyte cations are conventionally viewed as inert spectators in electrocatalysis. However, a wealth of observations show that catalytic rates are often highly sensitive to cation identity. Despite their prevalence, these cation effects have resisted a unified mechanistic explanation, with different physical phenomena implicated across reaction chemistries, catalyst compositions, and choice of solvent. In this perspective, we describe a general framework for understanding cation effects in electrocatalysis based on electrostatics. We argue that cations influence reaction rates by modifying the strength of the electric field present at the catalyst surface, which alters the energetics of adsorbed intermediates and transition states according to their dipole moments and polarizabilities. The magnitude of this field depends on how cations arrange at the electrode surface, controlled by their size, shape, solvation, and packing efficiency. Cations that can arrange more densely result in a steeper potential drop at the electrode surface and consequently a stronger electric field. Our model further identifies two criteria for observing cation effects: (1) the operating potential must be negative of the electrode’s potential of zero total charge, ensuring that cations accumulate at the interface, and (2) the energetics of the kinetically relevant elementary step must be field sensitive. This framework reconciles previously inconsistent trends, including why cation effects appear only for some catalysts, why reaction selectivity is sensitive to cation identity, and why activity can increase with cation size on certain metals but decrease on others. Supported by kinetic measurements, spectroscopy, and atomistic simulations, the model provides both conceptual value for building intuition about catalysis at charged interfaces and predictive value for anticipating trends for new reactions, catalysts, and electrolytes. We conclude by highlighting the importance of electric fields across electrochemical, thermochemical, and biological catalysis and propose that considering the electrostatic environment around active sites offers new opportunities for improving activity and selectivity.

cation effects↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multiscale model of immune surveillance in micrometastases gives insights on cancer patient digital twins

Abstract Metastasis is the leading cause of death in patients with cancer, driving considerable scientific and clinical interest in immunosurveillance of micrometastases. We investigated this process by creating a multiscale mathematical model to study the interactions between the immune system and the progression of micrometastases in general epithelial tissue. We analyzed the parameter space of the model using high-throughput computing resources to generate over 100,000 virtual patient trajectories. We demonstrated that the model could recapitulate a wide variety of virtual patient trajectories, including uncontrolled growth, partial response, and complete immune response to tumor growth. We classified the virtual patients and identified key patient parameters with the greatest effect on the simulated immunosurveillance. We highlight the lessons derived from this analysis and their impact on the nascent field of cancer patient digital twins (CPDTs). While CPDTs could enable clinicians to systematically dissect the complexity of cancer in each individual patient and inform treatment choices, our work shows that key challenges remain before we can reach this vision. In particular, we show that there remain considerable uncertainties in immune responses, unreliable patient stratification, and unpredictable personalized treatment. Nonetheless, we also show that in spite of these challenges, patient-specific models suggest strategies to increase control of clinically undetectable micrometastases even without complete parameter certainty.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bringing the Peccei-Quinn mechanism down to Earth

It is conventionally assumed that the physics underlying the Peccei-Quinn (PQ) mechanism for addressing the strong C P problem is at very high energies, orders of magnitude above the weak scale. However, this may not be the case in general and the associated PQ boson ϕ , besides the signature state, i.e., the ultralight axion a , may emerge well below the weak scale. We consider this possibility and examine some of the conditions for its viability. The example model proposed here may also provide the requisite Standard Model Higgs mass parameter, without invoking new scalars above the giga-electron-volt (GeV) scale. The corresponding parameter space can maintain against quantum corrections. This scenario, depending on the choice of parameters, can potentially be constrained by flavor data. We point out that the current mild excess in B + → K + ν ν ¯ , reported by the Belle II experiment, could in principle be explained in this setup as B + → K + ϕ and B + → K + a , with both ϕ and a escaping the detector as missing energy. For a sufficiently heavy PQ boson, in the GeV regime (as the preferred explanation of the Belle II excess), one can separate these two contributions, due to the difference in K + momenta. In this case, the axion may also affect lighter meson, e.g., kaon, decays while ϕ would not be a kinematically allowed final state. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Updated constraints from electric dipole moments in the MSSM with R-parity violation

We revisit the electric dipole moments (EDMs) of quarks and leptons in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with trilinear R-parity violation (RPV). In this framework, EDMs are induced at the two-loop level via RPV interactions. We perform a comprehensive recalculation of several classes of Barr-Zee type diagrams in a general Rξ gauge. While we find general agreement with previous analytic results in the literature, our work provides a valuable independent cross-check of the complicated calculations. We also point out some subtleties in the intermediate steps and in the choice of the flavor basis for the numerical evaluation of the expressions. By confronting the theoretical predictions with the latest experimental limits on EDMs, we derive updated constraints on combinations of RPV couplings. We highlight an approximate, testable correlation between the proton and neutron EDM that emerges within the considered class of RPV models, offering a distinctive signature for future EDM experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling stochastic fluctuations in relativistic kinetic theory

Using the information current, we develop a Lorentz-covariant framework for modeling equilibrium fluctuations in relativistic kinetic theory in the grand-canonical ensemble. The resulting stochastic theory is proven to be causal and covariantly stable, and its predictions do not depend on the choice of spacetime foliation used to define the grand-canonical probabilities. As expected, in a box containing N > 5 particles, Boltzmann’s molecular chaos postulate is broken with (almost exact) probability N -1/2 , leading to a breakdown of the Boltzmann equation in small systems. Here, we also verify that, in ultrarelativistic gases, transient hydrodynamics already accounts for at least 80% of the equilibrium fluctuations of the stress-energy tensor at a given time. Finally, we compute the correlators at nonequal times for two selected collision kernels: that of a chemically active diluted solution, and that of ultrarelativistic scalar particles self-interacting via a quartic potential. For the former, we compute the density-density correlators analytically in real space, and dehydrodynamization of the stochastic theory is proven to occur whenever the mean free path diverges at high energy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗