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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress in US hybrid maize

Global climate change is increasing both average temperatures and the frequencies of extreme high temperatures. Past studies have documented a strong negative effect of exposures to temperatures >30°C on hybrid maize yields. However, these studies could not disentangle genetic adaptation via artificial selection from changes in agronomic practices. Because most of the earliest maize hybrids are no longer available, side-by-side comparisons with modern hybrids under current field conditions are generally impossible. Here, we report on the collection and curation of 81 years of public yield trial records covering 4,730 maize hybrids, which enabled us to model genetic variation for temperature responses among maize hybrids. We show that selection may have indirectly and inconsistently contributed to the genetic adaptation of maize to moderate heat stress over this time period while preserving genetic variance for continued adaptation. However, our results reveal the existence of a genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress, leading to a decrease in tolerance to severe heat stress over the same time period. Both trends are particularly conspicuous since the mid-1970s. Such a tradeoff poses challenges to the continued adaptation of maize to warming climates due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Nevertheless, given recent advances in phenomics, enviromics, and physiological modeling, our results offer a degree of optimism for the capacity of plant breeders to adapt maize to warming climates, assuming appropriate levels of R&D investment.

Kusmec, Aaron (ORCID:000000032295385X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biogeochemical Changes in Estuaries

The biogeochemical composition of materials suspended and dissolved in estuarine waters is substantially transformed by biological and abiotic processes as water from rivers and subterranean aquifers travels through estuaries to the coastal ocean, influencing the rate of storage and/or exchange of carbon with the atmosphere. Biogeochemical signatures in the upper reaches of estuaries (e.g., low salinity) generally reflect characteristics of the rivers and groundwater draining into the estuary. The composition of organic matter (OM) where rivers meet estuaries is a mixture of terrigenous signatures dependent on watershed landscape features, aquatic signatures dependent on the prominence of freshwater primary productivity, and intermediate metabolites (i.e., byproducts of in situ transformation) of these terrigenous and aquatic OM sources. The prominence of aquatic primary production-derived OM and products of microbial decomposition generally increases towards the lower reaches of estuaries where they meet the coastal ocean (i.e.., continental shelf). The nature of biogeochemical transformations occurring along estuarine gradients is closely coupled with factors that are poised to change under multiple compounding disturbances and stress factors related to both climate change and other anthropogenic global changes. This chapter describes the fundamental mechanisms that drive the transport, transformation, and storage of OM in estuaries and how these dynamics have and may continue to change in response to key disturbances and stressors related to climate change and other anthropogenic global changes including warming, intensifying hydrological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods), sea level rise, and acidification.

Ward, Nicholas D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Correlation between Cold Weather Meteorological Variables and Electricity Outages

The significance of the impact of weather on the electric grid has grown as climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In recent years (2021-2022) in particular, extreme winter weather has affected the grid in locations in the US rarely exposed to extreme low temperatures, snow and icing conditions. Here we analyze the correlation between cold weather meteorological variables and electricity outages during two large winter storm events, Uri (February 2021) and Landon (February 2022) using Random Forest machine learning and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Our geographical focus across the two storms is the state of Texas. Extrapolation of the method to winter weather impacts over other years and additional locations is proposed.

Dumas, Melissa↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

An unprecedented heatwave impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large-scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near-melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interdisciplinary Workshop on the Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics (Final Report)

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) convened a week-long interdisciplinary science workshop from September 15-20, 2019 entitled, “Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics.” The purpose of the workshop was to advance research on the impacts of land use and land management on climate, carbon emissions, and extremes, as well as the impact of land-use change on important societal issues such as food, water, and energy security. The workshop was co-chaired by Kate Calvin (PNNL), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), and Dave Lawrence (National Center for Atmospheric Research). Co-funders of the workshop included NASA, NOAA, and travel support for European colleagues through CRESCENDO. This workshop brought together 31 professionals with expertise across biogeochemistry, climate impacts, mitigation, land use datasets, and societal impacts to coordinate on upcoming research and publications on the role of biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface and their implications for climate, as conducted through the Land Use model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), which is part of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A primary outcome of the meeting was the definition and planning of a series of LUMIP papers that will rely on the LUMIP and CMIP6 simulations. By the end of the meeting more than twenty papers and paper lead authors had been identified and scoped out. Around ten of these papers were submitted by the December 31, 2019 IPCC deadline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, for this work, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980–2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilience framework and metrics for energy master planning of communities

Changes in the nature, intensity, and frequency of climate-related extreme events have imposed a higher risk of failure on energy systems, especially those at the community level. Furthermore, the evolving energy demand patterns and transition towards renewable and localised energy supply can affect energy system resilience. How can an energy system be planned and reconfigured to address these challenges without compromising the system's resilience against chronic stresses and extreme events? Unlike energy system reliability, resilience is neither a common nor an explicit consideration in energy master planning at the community level. In addition, there is no universally agreed-upon method or metrics for measuring or estimating resilience and defining mitigation strategies. This paper introduces a multi-layered energy resilience framework and set of metrics for energy master planning of communities, including the new generation of district energy systems. The potential system disturbances and their short and long-term impacts on various components of the energy system are discussed for commonly expected and extreme events. Three layers of energy resilience are discussed: engineering-designed resilience, operational resilience, and community-societal resilience. A starting set of energy resilience metrics to support engineering design and energy master planning for communities is identified. Implications for future research and practice are noted.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Data Synergy Effects of Time-Series Deep Learning Models in Hydrology

When fitting statistical models to variables in geoscientific disciplines such as hydrology, it is a customary practice to stratify a large domain into multiple regions (or regimes) and study each region separately. Traditional wisdom suggests that models built for each region separately will have higher performance because of homogeneity within each region. However, each stratified model has access to fewer and less diverse data points. Here, through two hydrologic examples (soil moisture and streamflow), we show that conventional wisdom may no longer hold in the era of big data and deep learning (DL). We systematically examined an effect we call data synergy, where the results of the DL models improved when data were pooled together from characteristically different regions. The performance of the DL models benefited from modest diversity in the training data compared to a homogeneous training set, even with similar data quantity. Moreover, allowing heterogeneous training data makes eligible much larger training datasets, which is an inherent advantage of DL. A large, diverse data set is advantageous in terms of representing extreme events and future scenarios, which has strong implications for climate change impact assessment. The results here suggest the research community should place greater emphasis on data sharing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses of soil organic carbon to climate extremes under warming across global biomes

The impact of more extreme climate conditions under global warming on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we estimate the response of SOC to climate extreme shifts under 1.5 °C warming by combining a space-for-time substitution approach and global SOC measurements (0–30 cm soil). Most extremes (22 out of 33 assessed extreme types) exacerbate SOC loss under warming globally, but their effects vary among ecosystems. Only decreasing duration of cold spells exerts consistent positive effects, and increasing extreme wet days exerts negative effects in all ecosystems. Temperate grasslands and croplands negatively respond to most extremes, while positive responses are dominant in temperate and boreal forests and deserts. In tundra, 21 extremes show neutral effects, but 11 extremes show negative effects with stronger magnitude than in other ecosystems. Our results reveal distinct, biome-specific effects of climate extremes on SOC dynamics, promoting more reliable SOC projection under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Distribution Designing For Resilience Application

The number of power outages have been on the rise as extreme weather patterns have been occurring more frequently due to climate change. These outages have an economic impact in the billions of dollar. The modernization of the power grid and adoption of high penetration of distributed generation such as wind and solar have the potential to reduce the number and length of time of these power outages. However, planners and operators need a way to value the resilience the distributed assets provide to the grid. PowDDeR is a tool that allows them to evaluate the resilience each asset provides as well as how they provide resilience over the connected network.

Phillips, TylerB↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report from the first phase of a project that changed institutions. The grant was titled “Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks.” The overall objectives of this project were to (1) provide model‐compatible datasets of key plant hydraulic traits and status for model evaluation, parameterization and validation and (2) use these data to pinpoint ecosystem responses to a changing hydroclimate by addressing both long‐term climatic drying and episodic extreme droughts. We planned to address the objectives with three research activities to quantify plant responses to chronic water stress and episodic drought: (1) generate high frequency observations of soil and plant hydraulic data across different landscape positions at multiple sites, (2) quantify plant hydraulic trait plasticity in response to experimental soil moisture reduction in situ in two central hardwood forests, and (3) simulate the carbon consequences of incorporating plant hydrodynamics and plant acclimation to water stress in the DOE‐sponsored plant hydrodynamics model FATES‐HYDRO. As of the transfer of this project to another institution, we had made substantial progress on activities 1 and 2, and started activity 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An ML-based terrestrial data fusion and augmentation framework to enable advanced understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water interactions

Soil moisture is essential to the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and land–atmosphere interactions. There are various types of soil moisture data, and each type has the distinct spatiotemporal strengths and limitations, depending on the diverse applications and retrieval methodologies of different data types (Li et al., in review; The PNNL-82151 FY23 Report). However, the limitations of different soil moisture data in terms of accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage hinder our ability to further understand the soil moisture dynamics across scales. To have a gap free soil moisture data product with a fine spatiotemporal coverage and vertical profiles, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models by using (1) in-situ soil moisture measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), (2) soil moisture from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) at the 9 km and sub-daily spatiotemporal resolution, (3) the Daymet meteorological fields, and (4) data products that characterize surface conditions, including soil texture, organic content, topography, vegetation type, and rooting depth. We use the trained XGBoost models that have consistent performance across seven soil layers, i.e., 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–40 cm, 40–60 cm, 60–100 cm, and 100–200 cm, and the gridded model predictors to generate a soil moisture data at the 1 km and daily spatiotemporal resolution for the Continental United States (CONUS) from 2001–2020. This dataset can be broadly used for Earth system model benchmark, monitoring extreme weathers, making informed decisions regarding agriculture, water resource management, climate change mitigation, and ecosystem preservation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate

Global wildfire events have had increasingly severe impacts in recent years, particularly in the western USA, driven by extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel accumulation and multiple ignition sources. Wildfires sparked by power lines tend to be larger and more destructive, as they often occur during high winds, which accelerate the spread of fires. Moreover, efforts to contain wildfires frequently result in power outages, causing considerable economic disruption. Here, in this Review, we examine wildfire risks related to power-line-induced ignitions, infrastructure damage, climate-induced environmental impacts, grid operational risks, real-time grid management risks, vegetation management risks, and financial and funding risks in the context of a changing climate and their interdependence with power grid infrastructures. We then explore the resilience of power grids under wildfire threats, looking at risk analysis, prediction and mitigation strategies. The Review also shares practical insights and experiences in the USA to inform researchers, policymakers and industry professionals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗