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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Seasonal changes in soil respiration linked to soil moisture and phosphorus availability along a tropical rainfall gradient

Humid tropical forests contain some of the largest soil carbon (C) stocks on Earth, yet there is uncertainty about how carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes will respond to climate change in this biome. The magnitude of change in soil respiration over seasonal wetting and drying cycles can provide insight to how CO 2 fluxes might respond to precipitation changes. We measured soil respiration in 15 distinct forests across rainfall and soil fertility gradients in lowland Panama to assess spatial variation in seasonal patterns. We predicted that seasonal changes in soil respiration would be related to soil moisture, and that the ratio of wet to dry season CO 2 fluxes across landscape gradients would be regulated by soil organic C and nutrient availability. We found that soil respiration during the dry season was relatively stable across the rainfall gradient, averaging 4.3 ± 0.3 lmol CO 2 m -2 s -1 . In contrast, wet season respiration varied markedly, ranging among sites from a decline of 19% to an increase of 360% in comparison to dry season values. Soil moisture, air temperature, and rainfall were the best predictors of instantaneous soil respiration (R 2 = 0.18). Meanwhile, ratios of wet to dry season CO 2 fluxes were best predicted by sitescale resin-extractable phosphorus (P; R 2 = 0.48). That is, soil respiration in P-rich sites increased more during the wet season relative to respiration in P-poor sites. Also, sites with Wet:Dry season CO 2 flux ratios\1 were all poor in soil P, defined as resin P concentrations < 2 mg P kg -1 . Although soil organic C was not related to instantaneous soil respiration rates, forest floor biomass accumulation during the dry season was positively correlated with soil respiration during the wet season (R 2 = 0.26), indicating the contribution of microbial decomposition to wet season soil respiration. Altogether, nutrient availability regulated soil respiration responses to increased moisture during the wet season, while low soil moisture uniformly suppressed soil respiration across sites during the dry season. Phosphorus availability might therefore regulate feedbacks to climate change among humid tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of Seawater Oxygen Isotopes to Climatic and Tectonic Boundary Conditions in an Early Paleogene Simulation with GISS ModelE-R

An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE -R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta O-18(sub sw), where delta is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45.65 Ma). Understanding the response of delta O-18(sub sw) to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate delta O-18 document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice -volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE -R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean delta O-18(sub sw) during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE -R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate delta O-18 signatures by more than +/-2 C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in d18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE -R are in direct contrast with those from another d18O ]tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in delta O-18(sub sw) between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of d18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/ Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate delta O-18 alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

Roberts, Christopher D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nutrient limitation shapes functional traits of mycorrhizal fungi and phosphorus-cycling bacteria across an elevation gradient

In nutrient-limited high-elevation ecosystems, plants rely on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi to provide mineral phosphorus (P) in the form of phosphate (PO43-). AM fungi gather these nutrients from phosphorus-cycling bacteria (PCBs) that can mineralize PO43- from organic matter and solubilize mineral-bound P. How climate, soil factors, and nutrient limitation influence AM fungi and PCB assembly remains unclear. We collected soil from montane meadows across a 1,000-m elevation gradient on three replicate mountainsides and analyzed AM fungal marker genes, P-cycling genes from shotgun metagenomes, and edaphic measurements. High-elevation soils had nearly 50-fold less soil PO₄³⁻ and 60% more AM fungal hyphae than low-elevation soils. AM fungal turnover was linked to changes in pH, organic carbon, and PO₄³-. The composition of 198 P-cycling genes was influenced by the AM fungal community structure. Drivers of individual PCB functional genes, including pH and organic carbon, varied with gene phylogeny. We found a trade-off in P-cycling strategies across elevation: P-rich, low-elevation soils supported root-colonizing AM fungi and organic P-mineralizing bacteria. P-poor, high-elevation soils were dominated by stress-tolerant AM fungi and mineral P-solubilizing bacteria. Our results suggest that AM fungi and PCB community turnover across elevation are both shaped by pH, organic carbon, and P availability. With continued climate warming, the structure and function of mountaintop ecosystems might shift to resemble lower elevations, disrupting long-established and specialized microbial assemblages, with consequences for P-cycling dynamics and the total P available to plant communities.IMPORTANCEPhosphorus (P) limits plant productivity in high-elevation ecosystems, yet the microbial networks that mobilize P, including arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and phosphorus-cycling bacteria (PCBs), remain under-characterized in these nutrient-poor soils. We show that across a 10,00-m elevation gradient, AM fungi and P-cycling gene assemblages shift predictably with pH, organic carbon, and phosphate availability. Higher elevations, with less available P, select for stress-tolerant AM fungal taxa and PCB strategies geared toward mineral solubilization, while low-elevation sites favor root colonization by AM fungi and organic P mineralization. These results suggest that nutrient limitation can constrain microbial community assembly in consistent ways across landscapes. High mountain soils are low in P and rely on a network of underground AM fungi and PCB to deliver nutrients to plants. This study shows how those underground relationships reorganize with elevation and how climate change could collapse long-standing microbial strategies by pushing high-elevation ecosystems toward lowland conditions. As soils warm and dry, the microbial scaffolding that supports alpine plant life may become increasingly unstable.

arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Downscaled hyper-resolution (400 m) gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature (2008–2019) for the East–Taylor subbasin (western United States)

Abstract. High-resolution gridded datasets of meteorological variables are needed in order to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in complex mountainous terrain. Across the United States, the highest available spatial resolution of gridded datasets of daily meteorological records is approximately 800 m. This work presents gridded datasets of daily precipitation and mean temperature for the East–Taylor subbasin (in the western United States) covering a 12-year period (2008–2019) at a high spatial resolution (400 m). The datasets are generated using a downscaling framework that uses data-driven models to learn relationships between climate variables and topography. We observe that downscaled datasets of precipitation and mean temperature exhibit smoother spatial gradients (while preserving the spatial variability) when compared to their coarser counterparts. Additionally, we also observe that when downscaled datasets are upscaled to the original resolution (800 m), the mean residual error is almost zero, ensuring no bias when compared with the original data. Furthermore, the downscaled datasets are observed to be linearly related to elevation, which is consistent with the methodology underlying the original 800 m product. Finally, we validate the spatial patterns exhibited by downscaled datasets via an example use case that models lidar-derived estimates of snowpack. The presented dataset constitutes a valuable resource to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in the mountainous terrain of the East–Taylor subbasin, which is an important study area in the context of water security for the southwestern United States and Mexico. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.15485/1822259 (Mital et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A More La Niña–Like Response to Radiative Forcing after Flux Adjustment in CESM2

Abstract In response to greenhouse gas forcing, most coupled global climate models project the tropical Pacific SST trend toward an “El Niño–like” state, with a reduced zonal SST gradient and a weakened Walker circulation. However, observations over the last five decades reveal a trend toward a more “La Niña–like” state with a strengthening zonal SST gradient. Recent research indicates that the identified trend differences are unlikely to be entirely due to internal variability and probably result, at least in part, from systematic model biases. In this study, Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), is used to explore how mean-state biases within the model may influence its forced response to radiative forcing in the tropical Pacific. The results show that using flux adjustment to reduce the mean-state bias in CESM2 over the tropical regions results in a more La Niña–like trend pattern in the tropical Pacific, with a strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient and a relatively enhanced Walker circulation, as hypothesized to occur if the ocean thermostat mechanism is stronger than the atmospheric mechanisms which by themselves would weaken the Walker circulation. We also find that the historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal gradient is transient but persists into the near term in a high-emissions future warming scenario. These results suggest the potential of flux adjustment as a method for developing alternative projections that represent a wider range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, especially for a better understanding of regional patterns of climate risk in the near term.

Zhuo, Jing-Yi [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, C↗
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding coastal wetland hydrology with a new regional‐scale, process‐based hydrological model

Abstract Coastal wetlands represent an ecotone between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, providing important services, including flood mitigation, fresh water supply, erosion control, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. The environmental setting of a wetland and the hydrological connectivity between a wetland and adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems together determine wetland hydrology. Yet little is known about regional‐scale hydrological interactions among uplands, coastal wetlands, and coastal processes, such as tides, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion, which together control the dynamics of wetland hydrology. This study presents a new regional‐scale, physically based, distributed wetland hydrological model, PIHM‐Wetland, which integrates the surface and subsurface hydrology with coastal processes and accounts for the influence of wetland inundation on energy budgets and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was validated using in situ hydro‐meteorological measurements and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET data for a forested and herbaceous wetland in North Carolina, USA, which confirmed that the model accurately represents the major wetland hydrological behaviours. Modelling results indicate that topographic gradient is a primary control of groundwater flow direction in adjacent uplands. However, seasonal climate patterns become the dominant control of groundwater flow at lower coastal plain and land–ocean interface. We found that coastal processes largely influence groundwater table (GWT) dynamics in the coastal zone, 300 to 800 m from the coastline in our study area. Among all the coastal processes, tides are the dominant control on GWT variation. Because of inundation, forested and herbaceous wetlands absorb an additional 6% and 10%, respectively, of shortwave radiation annually, resulting in a significant increase in ET. Inundation alters ET partitioning through canopy evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation, the effect of which is stronger in cool seasons than in warm seasons. The PIHM‐Wetland model provides a new tool that improves the understanding of wetland hydrological processes on a regional scale. Insights from this modelling study provide benchmarks for future research on the effects of sea level rise and climate change on coastal wetland functions and services.

Zhang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Weakening of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in Solar Geoengineering Scenarios

Solar geoengineering that aims to offset global warming could nonetheless alter atmospheric temperature gradients and humidity and thus affect the extratropical storm tracks. Here, we first analyze climate model simulations from experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which a reduction in incoming solar radiation balances a quadrupling of CO 2 . The Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm track weakens by a comparable amount in G1 as it does for increased CO2 only. The Southern Hemisphere storm track also weakens in G1, in contrast to a strengthening and poleward shift for increased CO 2 . Using mean available potential energy, we show that the changes in zonal-mean temperature and humidity are sufficient to explain the different responses of storm-track intensity. We also demonstrate similar weakening in a more complex geoengineering scenario. Here, our results offer insight into how geoengineering affects storm tracks, highlighting the potential for geoengineering to induce novel climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Latitudinal gradient in the respiration quotient and the implications for ocean oxygen availability

Significance The loss of ocean oxygen caused by climate warming is a serious environmental issue and could lead to major declines in animal habitats. However, current Earth system models struggle in explaining observed trends in global ocean oxygen. Using a model, we demonstrate that marine oxygen concentrations depend sensitively on a rarely considered quantity known as the respiration quotient to prescribe the oxygen consumed per mole of organic carbon respired. Using a combination of direct chemical measurements across major biomes in the eastern Pacific Ocean plus changes in the global distribution of oxygen and carbon, we show how the respiration quotient increases systematically with temperature. The findings imply that we can experience more intense declines in ocean oxygen with warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Low-frequency variability and wavenumber selection in models with zonally symmetric forcing

The authors consider a two-layer quasigeostrophic model with linear surface drag and forcing that relaxes to a zonal baroclinically unstable equilibrium state consisting of a meridionally confined temperature gradient. It is observed that the most energetic wave in the time-mean climate has near zero frequency and is not driven by upscale nonlinear energy transfers. This wave has a zonal scale near the long-wave cutoff of the equilibrium state, and its energy balance is mainly between baroclinic generation and dissipation. This maintenance mechanism is different from that suggested by beta-plane, two-dimensional, and quasigeostrophic turbulence arguments and may be relevant to the dynamics of zonally asymmetric low-frequency variability in the atmosphere, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Monitoring Atmospheric CO2 From Space: Challenge & Approach

Atmospheric CO2 is the key radiative forcing for the Earth's climate and may contribute a major part of the Earth's warming during the past 150 years. Advanced knowledge on the CO2 distributions and changes can lead considerable model improvements in predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions have been found for decades owing to limited CO2 observations. To obtain precise measurements of atmospheric CO2, certain challenges have to be overcome. For an example, global annual means of the CO2 are rather stable, but, have a very small increasing trend that is significant for multi-decadal long-term climate. At short time scales (a second to a few hours), regional and subcontinental gradients in the CO2 concentration are very small and only in an order of a few parts per million (ppm) compared to the mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 400 ppm, which requires atmospheric CO2 space monitoring systems with extremely high accuracy and precision (about 0.5 ppm or 0.125%) in spatiotemporal scales around 75 km and 10-s. It also requires a decadal-scale system stability. Furthermore, rapid changes in high latitude environments such as melting ice, snow and frozen soil, persistent thin cirrus clouds in Amazon and other tropical areas, and harsh weather conditions over Southern Ocean all increase difficulties in satellite atmospheric CO2 observations. Space lidar approaches using Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) technique are considered to be capable of obtaining precise CO2 measurements and, thus, have been proposed by various studies including the 2007 Decadal Survey (DS) of the U.S. National Research Council. This study considers to use the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar to monitor global atmospheric CO2 distribution and variability from space. Development and demonstration of space lidar for atmospheric CO2 measurements have been made through joint adventure of NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis, Inc. As prototype space IPDA lidars, airborne laser absorption lidar systems operating in 1.57 CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested through lab, ground-based range, and flight campaigns. Very encouraging results have been obtained. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for clear sky IPDA measurements of CO2 differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) for a 10-s integration over vegetated areas with about 10 km range was found to be as high as 1300, resulting in an error 0.077% or equivalent CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) column precision of ~0.3 ppm. Precise range measurements using the IM-CW lidar approach were also achieved, and the uncertainties have been shown to be at sub meter level. Based on the airborne lidar development, space lidar and atmospheric CO2 observations are simulated. It shows that with the IM-CW approach, accurate atmospheric CO2 measurements can be achieved from space, and a space mission such as that proposed by the DS will meet science goals of atmospheric CO2 monitoring.

Lin, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2019

Black Carbon Increases Frequency of Extreme ENSO Events

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of Earth’s climate variability at interannual time scales with profound ecological and societal impacts, and it is projected to intensify in many climate models as the climate warms under the forcing of increasing CO 2 concentration. Since the preindustrial era, black carbon (BC) emissions have substantially increased in the Northern Hemisphere. But how BC aerosol forcing may influence the occurrence of the extreme ENSO events has rarely been investigated. In this study, using simulations of a global climate model, we show that increases in BC emissions from both the midlatitudes and Arctic weaken latitudinal temperature gradients and northward heat transport, decrease tropical energy divergence, and increase sea surface temperature over the tropical oceans, with a surprising consequential increase in the frequency of extreme ENSO events. A corollary of this study is that reducing BC emissions might serve to mitigate the possible increasing frequency of extreme ENSO events under greenhouse warming, if the modeling result can be translated into the climate in reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes - 2

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).

Smith, Eric A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: "Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range"

This data package contains data that were used for analysis in “Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range”, by Moyes et al. 2013. All data collection and field research were completed on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.This data package contains nine comma-separated-values (.csv) files, one text (.txt) file, and two zipped seedling folders that were used for leaf area analysis. One zipped folder contains 468 .jpg photographs of seedlings, and the second contains 468 corresponding Image J-processed .jpg images that include silhouette leaf area values. .csv and .txt files can be opened using any compatible simple text-editor software such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows); .csv’s can also be opened using R and Microsoft Excel. Image files can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). In addition, there are a total of 31 Microsoft Excel files: three .xlsx files, and 28 raw Li-Cor output .xls files. This data user’s guide is available in .pdf format, and can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible file viewing software. Geospatial data showing field site locations are also included in the archive for use and reference. There are two geospatial formats in this archive: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and keyhole markup-language (.kml) files. Both file types contain bounding box information, with the former being polygons, and the latter containing corner coordinates for each site. ESRI shapefiles can be opened using any geospatial software compatible with the file type (such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS), and .kml files are compatible with Google Earth and Google Maps.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Continued changes in climate are projected to alter the geographic distributions of plant species, in part by affecting where individuals can establish from seed. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes uphill redistribution of subalpine tree populations by reducing cold limitation at high elevation and enhancing drought stress at low elevation. We seeded limber pine (Pinus flexilis) into plots with combinations of infrared heating and water addition treatments, at sites positioned in lower subalpine forest, the treeline ecotone, and alpine tundra. In 2010, first-year seedlings were assessed for physiological performance and survival over the snow-free growing season. Seedlings emerged in midsummer, about 5–8 weeks after snowmelt. Low temperature was not observed to limit seedling photosynthesis or respiration between emergence and October, and thus experimental warming did not appear to reduce cold limitation at high elevation. Instead, gas exchange and water potential from all sites indicated a prevailing effect of summer moisture stress on photosynthesis and carbon balance. Infrared heaters raised soil growing degree days (base 5 °C, p < 0.001) and August–September mean soil temperature (p < 0.001). Despite marked differences in vegetation cover and meteorological conditions across sites, volumetric soil moisture content (θ) at 5–10 cm below 0.16 and 0.08 m^3 m^(−3) consistently corresponded with moderate and severe indications of drought stress in midday stem water potential, stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and respiration. Seedling survival was greater in watered plots than in heated plots (p = 0.01), and negatively related to soil growing degree days and duration of exposure to θ < 0.08 m^3 m^(−3) in a stepwise linear regression model (p < 0.0001). We concluded that seasonal moisture stress and high soil surface temperature imposed a strong limitation to limber pine seedling establishment across a broad elevation gradient, including at treeline, and that these limitations are likely to be enhanced by further climate warming.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Maintenance log:Amended file name error in Data User's Guide May 19 2022

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spatial variation in oak ( Quercus spp.) radial growth responses to drought stress in eastern North America

Dendroecology provides a means to evaluate how mature trees have responded to climate stresses in the recent past and provides one approach for projecting how existing forests will respond to future climate change. This study documented spatial variation in the strength of growth–climate associations for six oak (Quercus) species at 284 sites in eastern North America that span substantial gradients of temperature and site water balance. Radial growth of oaks was more strongly related to growing-season precipitation and the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration at sites in the western part of the study region where drought conditions occur more frequently. Growth was more strongly related to growing-season mean maximum temperature in the warmer, southern part of the study region. Growth of oaks was not strongly related to site water balance or temperature in the northeastern part of the study region. These results indicate that if climate change results in increased growing-season drought stress, this will adversely affect mature oak trees growing in the southern and western parts of eastern North America, but oaks growing in northeastern North America have more safe space for change before they will suffer reduced growth and vigor.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Changes in the MJO under Greenhouse Gas–Induced Warming in CMIP5 Models

This study investigates changes to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in response to greenhouse gas–induced warming during the twenty-first century. Changes in the MJO’s amplitude, phase speed, and zonal scale are examined in five models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that demonstrate superior MJO characteristics. Under warming, the CMIP5 models exhibit a robust increase in the spectral power of planetary-scale, intraseasonal, eastward-propagating (MJO) precipitation anomalies (~10.9% K −1 ). The amplification of MJO variability is accompanied by an increase of the spectral power of the corresponding westward-traveling waves at a similar rate. This suggests that enhanced MJO variability in a warmer climate is likely caused by enhanced background tropical precipitation variability, not by changes in the MJO’s stability. All models examined show an increase in the MJO’s phase speed (1.8% K –1 –4.5% K −1 ) and a decrease in the MJO’s zonal wavenumber (1.0% K –1 –3.8% K −1 ). Using a linear moisture mode framework, this study tests the theory-predicted phase speed changes against the simulated phase speed changes. It is found that the MJO’s acceleration in a warmer climate is a result of enhanced horizontal moisture advection by the steepening of the mean meridional moisture gradient and the decrease in zonal wavenumber, which is partially offset by the lengthening of the convective moisture adjustment time scale and the increase in gross dry stability. While the ability of the linear moisture mode framework to explain MJO phase speed changes is model dependent, the theory can accurately predict the phase speed changes in the model ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine"

This archive contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine”, by Reinhardt et al., 2011. Data were collected over one summer season in plots within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), before climate manipulations began. The experiment was located on Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. This data package includes five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, five Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf file, and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editing software (such as Notepad and TextEdit), R, and Microsoft Excel. .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .pdf file can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader or any other compatible file viewing software. The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and shapefiles can be opened using any software compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS.Data archived contain gas exchange and plant physiology measurements, non-structural carbohydrate data, among others. Geospatial files are also provided for additional locational context. The files and their contents in this data package are summarized under "Data Summary" in the included Data User's Guide. All files (excluding geospatial) are available in both Microsoft Excel and in .csv format, and are indicated in the Data Summary list as well.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Climate change is predicted to cause upward shifts in forest tree distributions, which will require seedling recruitment beyond current forest boundaries. However, predicting the likelihood of successful plant establishment beyond current species’ ranges under changing climate is complicated by the interaction of genetic and environmental controls on seedling establishment. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone and examined differences in physiology and morphology between provenances and among sites. Plant dry mass, projected leaf area and shoot:root ratios were 12–40% greater in LO compared with HI seedlings at each elevation. There were no significant changes in these variables among sites except for decreased dry mass of LO seedlings in the alpine site. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration) and conductance increased >2× with elevation for both provenances, and were 35–77% greater in LO seedlings compared with HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. Our results suggest that for P. flexilis seedlings, provenances selected for above-ground growth may outperform those selected for stress resistance in the absence of harsh climatic conditions, even well above the species’ range limits in the alpine zone. This indicates that forest genetics may be important to understanding and managing species’ range adjustments due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗