Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Covariance Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Indra: a public computationally accessible suite of cosmological N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Indra is a suite of large-volume cosmological N-body simulations with the goal of providing excellent statistics of the large-scale features of the distribution of dark matter. Each of the 384 simulations is computed with the same cosmological parameters and different initial phases, with 10243 dark matter particles in a box of length 1 h−1 Gpc, 64 snapshots of particle data and halo catalogues, and 505 time-steps of the Fourier modes of the density field, amounting to almost a petabyte of data. All of the Indra data are immediately available for analysis via the SciServer science platform, which provides interactive and batch computing modes, personal data storage, and other hosted data sets such as the Millennium simulations and many astronomical surveys. We present the Indra simulations, describe the data products and how to access them, and measure ensemble averages, variances, and covariances of the matter power spectrum, the matter correlation function, and the halo mass function to demonstrate the types of computations that Indra enables. We hope that Indra will be both a resource for large-scale structure research and a demonstration of how to make very large data sets public and computationally accessible.

Falck, Bridget↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lost and Found Opportunities Around the Chlorine Worth Study

Los Alamos National Laboratory performed a series of critical experiments in 2021 to examine the worth of chlorine in plutonium-fueled systems. This series of experiments has been dubbed the “Chlorine Worth Study,” and the evaluation of the experiments was presented to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Technical Review Group in April, 2023. The primary purpose of these experiments was to enable validation of aqueous solutions crediting neutron absorption in 35 Cl. An external, independent view of the events leading up to the design and execution of these experiments indicates a missed opportunity to leverage sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis to assert validation without the experiments by taking an additional margin for the lack of direct validation of chlorine. On the other hand, the execution of these experiments also presents a rare opportunity to examine the efficacy of the S/U approach and extract useful information about the evaluated chlorine covariance data. TSUNAMI-1D models of representative application solutions were created and used to generate sensitivity data. Varying plutonium and chlorine concentrations were considered to examine the impact of these differences on the chlorine sensitivities and uncertainties. The data-induced uncertainty in k eff resulting from chlorine was calculated directly from uncertainty information calculated in the TSUNAMI-1D sequence. In all cases, this uncertainty was less than 0.1 %Δk. This result could potentially be used to justify a reactivity margin to account for the validation gap related to chlorine in the validation set. On the other hand, given that the experiments were performed, the community should endeavor to extract as much value from them and their results as possible. The results can be used to examine the actual bias associated with chlorine in these systems once the evaluations have been released. These data can be compared with the data-induced uncertainty margin discussed above to test the sufficiency of the validation gap penalty. This result will provide an indication of the performance of the chlorine covariance data specifically and the S/U validation approach generally. More advanced S/U techniques may also be employed to determine reactivity sensitivities associated with the chlorine in the experiments, potentially generating a more robust test of the chlorine covariance data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Charge radii in covariant density functional theory: A global view

A systematic global investigation of differential charge radii has been performed within the CDFT framework for the first time. Theoretical results obtained with conventional covariant energy density functionals and the separable pairing interaction of Tian et al. [Phys. Lett. B 676, 44 (2009)] are compared with experimental differential charge radii in the regions of the nuclear chart in which available experimental data crosses the neutron shell closures at N=28,50,82, and 126. The analysis of absolute differential radii of different isotopic chains and their relative properties indicate clearly that such properties are reasonably well described in model calculations in the cases when the mean-field approximation is justified. However, while the observed clusterization of differential charge radii of different isotopic chains is well described above the N=50 and N=126 shell closures, it is more difficult to reproduce it above the N=28 and N=82 shell closures because of possible deficiencies in the underlying single-particle structure. The impact of the latter has been evaluated for spherical shapes and it was shown that the relative energies of the single-particle states and the patterns of their occupation with increasing neutron number have an appreciable impact on the evolution of the δ$\langle$r2$\rangle$N,N' values. These factors also limit the predictive power of model calculations in the regions of high densities of the single-particle states of different origin. It is shown that the kinks in the charge radii at neutron shell closures are due to the underlying single-particle structure and due to weakening or collapse of pairing at these closures. The regions of the nuclear chart in which the correlations beyond mean field are expected to have an impact on charge radii are indicated; the analysis shows that the assignment of a calculated excited prolate minimum to the experimental ground state allows us to understand the trends of the evolution of differential charge radii with neutron number in many cases of shape coexistence even at the mean-field level. It is usually assumed that pairing is a dominant contributor to odd-even staggering (OES) in charge radii. Our analysis paints a more complicated picture. It suggests a new mechanism in which the fragmentation of the single-particle content of the ground state in odd-mass nuclei due to particle-vibration coupling provides a significant contribution to OES in charge radii.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Establishing Validation Sites for Field-Level Emissions Quantification from Grain Sorghum in Southern Great Plains

Establish publicly available open-source, high-resolution datasets of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, meteorology, soil, and vegetation to support testing and validation of emerging biofuel production monitoring technologies. The project team deployed latest technologies to collect “Gold Standard” data for field- level fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 and H 2 O in grain sorghum production systems in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The Oklahoma State University led SMARTFARM was initiated on Oct 1, 2020, due to COVID-19 pandemic delay. We installed closed-path dual laser Eddy Covariance (EC) flux measurement system along with a well-established open-path EC system for simultaneously measuring field-level fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 , and H2O. The eddy flux data are combined with sub-acre soil moisture and temperature measurements, plant and soil analysis data (nutrient, composition, carbon, growth, and phenology), spatial surveys of soil EC, and pH. Grain sorghum crop was managed including planting and harvesting by producers. All teams recruited postdocs and students for the project and submitted purchase orders for field equipment. The team has developed a draft impact sheet and finalized the advisory board for the project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Albedo susceptibility of northeastern Pacific stratocumulus: the role of covarying meteorological conditions

Abstract. Quantification of the radiative adjustment of marine low clouds to aerosol perturbations, regionally and globally, remains the largest source of uncertainty in assessing current and future climate. One of the important steps towards quantifying the role of aerosol in modifying cloud radiative properties is to quantify the susceptibility of cloud albedo and liquid water path (LWP) to perturbations in cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We use 10 years of spaceborne observations from the polar-orbiting Aqua satellite to quantify the albedo susceptibility of marine low clouds to Nd perturbations over the northeast (NE) Pacific stratocumulus (Sc) region. Mutual information analysis reveals a dominating control of cloud state (e.g., LWP and Nd) on low-cloud albedo susceptibility, relative to the meteorological states that drive these cloud states. Through a LWP–Nd space decomposition of albedo susceptibilities, we show clear separation among susceptibility regimes (brightening or darkening), consistent with previously established mechanisms through which aerosol modulates cloud properties. These regimes include (i) thin non-precipitating clouds (LWP < 55 g m−2) that exhibit brightening (occurring 37 % of the time), corresponding to the Twomey effect; (ii) thicker non-precipitating clouds, corresponding to entrainment-driven negative LWP adjustments that manifest as a darkening regime (36 % of the time); and (iii) another brightening regime (22 % of the time) consisting of mostly precipitating clouds, corresponding to precipitation-suppression LWP positive adjustments. Overall, we find an annual-mean regional low-cloud brightening potential of 20.8±2.68 W m−2 ln(Nd)−1, despite an overall negative LWP adjustment for non-precipitating marine stratocumulus, owing to the high occurrence of the Twomey–brightening regime. Over the NE Pacific, clear seasonal covariabilities among meteorological factors related to the large-scale circulation are found to play an important role in grouping conditions favorable for each susceptibility regime. When considering the covarying meteorological conditions, our results indicate that for the northeastern Pacific stratocumulus, clouds that exhibit the strongest brightening potential occur most frequently within shallow marine boundary layers over a cool ocean surface with a stable atmosphere and a dry free troposphere above. Clouds that exhibit a darkening potential associated with negative LWP adjustments occur most frequently within deep marine boundary layers in which the atmospheric instability and the ocean surface are not strong and warm enough to produce frequent precipitation. Cloud brightening associated with warm-rain suppression is found to preferably occur either under unstable atmospheric conditions or humid free-tropospheric conditions that co-occur with a warm ocean surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical Particle Measurements during EPCAPE Field Campaign Report

This campaign requested the deployment of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility optical particle counter (OPC) at the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) located at the Scripps Pier in La Jolla, California during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE). The addition of the OPC was requested for two reasons. (1) Close the gap between the scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) size distribution from the Aerosol Observing System (AOS) measurements. (2) Principal investigator Petters has been working with Tracking Aerosol Convection Interaction Experiment (TRACER) data to compute particle fluxes from Doppler lidar (Petters et al. 2024). Briefly, backscatter flux is obtained using the eddy covariance technique using the Doppler vertical velocity and attenuated backscatter. Building upon prior studies, we were able to relate backscatter to particle number concentration by calibrating the lidar retrievals against optical particle counter-measured ground-based aerosol size distribution and radiosonde-interpolated relative humidity at lidar sample height. Performing similar analysis was of interest to EPCAPE to better understand the emissions and vertical transport of large particles into the overlying stratus clouds. However, as stated above, this analysis requires an optical size distribution that covers the 0.3-30-μm-diameter size range. The OPC was deployed between 2023-04-14 and 2024-02-14. The deployment, data quality analysis, and data archiving was handled by the DOE ARM instrument mentor team without additional involvement by the principal investigator. Data quality was marked as “routine” for the majority of the campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gross primary production (GPP) and red solar induced fluorescence (SIF) respond differently to light and seasonal environmental conditions in a subalpine conifer forest

The phenology of montane conifer forests is likely to shift in response to climate change and altered seasonal dynamics of light, temperature, and moisture. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is expected to provide substantial improvement for mapping temporal changes in evergreen gross primary production (GPP) over greenness-based remote sensing indices. The utility of SIF to monitor seasonal changes in the phenology of conifer photosynthesis depends on the degree to which GPP and SIF respond in synchrony to key environmental drivers. However, to what extent SIF and GPP become decoupled by responding differently to the combined effects of light and other environmental conditions remains unknown. The goal of this study was to characterize the responses of GPP and SIFred to a suite of environmental drivers at the half-hour time scale and determine how these relationships change across seasons. We analyzed one year of tower-based SIFred and eddy covariance-derived GPP data from a conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado. We compared the light responses of GPP and SIFred across the year, finding that SIFred increased in response to light earlier in the year than did GPP. The light response of GPP had a positive temperature dependence in spring, and this dependency reversed in summer due to increased evaporative demand, while the light response of SIFred was less temperature dependent. Using artificial neural network ensemble analysis, we found that from spring to summer, SIFred did not exhibit a parallel response to the seasonally dynamic temperature and moisture controls on GPP. In summer SIFred was not correlated with canopy conductance, suggesting that SIF is less sensitive to stomatal control than GPP. Furthermore, our results suggest that, in conifers, photosystems begin to activate in spring prior to when water becomes available for photosynthesis, presenting a challenge for the use of SIF as a phenological indicator in conifer forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust PCA-Deep Belief Network Surrogate Model for Distribution System Topology Identification with DERs

With the expansion of distribution networks and increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate distribution network topology in real-time. In this paper, a robust principal component analysis coupled deep belief network (PCA-DBN) surrogate model is proposed for distribution system topology identification. It integrates the benefits of robust feature extraction from PCA to deal with data quality issues and filter out noise, and the strength of DBN in capturing the nonlinear relationship between voltage amplitudes and the binary states of switchable connections. This also significantly reduces the DBN training complexity without loss of accuracy. It is shown that the widely used standard deviation of voltage drop and the voltage covariance matrix features yield less accuracy as compared to that of the voltage amplitudes in presence of high penetration of DERs and ZIP loads. Comparison results with other alternatives, such as the random forest (RF), multi-output regression (MOR) and the traditional DBN methods demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve a much higher topology identification accuracy while maintaining robustness to missing data and measurement noise under various penetration levels of DERs.

deep belief network↗
DOE OSTI2020

Covariant spectator theory of n p scattering: Deuteron form factors

The deuteron form factors are calculated using two model wave functions obtained from the 2007 CST high precision fits to $np$ scattering data. Included in the calculation are a new class of isoscalar $np$ interaction currents which are automatically generated by the nuclear force model used in these fits. If the nuclear model WJC2 is used, a precision fit ($\chi^2$/datum $\eqsim1$) to the Sick Global Analysis (GA) of all $ed$ elastic scattering data can be obtained by adjusting the unknown off-shell nucleon form factors $F_3(Q^2)$ (discussed before) and $F_4(Q^2)$ (introduced in this paper), and predicting the high $Q^2$ behavior of the neutron charge form factor $G_{En}(Q^2)$ well beyond the region where it has been measured directly. Relativistic corrections, isoscalar interaction currents, and off-shell effects are defined, discussed, and their size displayed. A rationale for extending $ed$ elastic scattering measurements to higher $Q^2$ is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advances in constraining intrinsic alignment models with hydrodynamic simulations

We use galaxies from the illustristng, massiveblack-ii, and illustris-1 hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the behaviour of large scale galaxy intrinsic alignments. Our analysis spans four redshift slices over the approximate range of contemporary lensing surveys z = 0–1. We construct comparable weighted samples from the three simulations, which we then analyse using an alignment model that includes both linear and quadratic alignment contributions. Our data vector includes galaxy–galaxy, galaxy–shape, and shape–shape projected correlations, with the joint covariance matrix estimated analytically. In all of the simulations, we report non-zero IAs at the level of several σ. For a fixed lower mass threshold, we find a relatively strong redshift dependence in all three simulations, with the linear IA amplitude increasing by a factor of ~2 between redshifts z = 0 and z = 1. We report no significant evidence for non-zero values of the tidal torquing amplitude, A 2 , in TNG, above statistical uncertainties, although MBII favours a moderately negative A 2 ~ –2. Examining the properties of the TATT model as a function of colour, luminosity and galaxy type (satellite or central), our findings are consistent with the most recent measurements on real data. We also outline a novel method for constraining the TATT model parameters directly from the pixelized tidal field, alongside a proof-of-concept exercise using TNG. This technique is shown to be promising, although comparison with previous results obtained via other methods is non-trivial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Review of TSUNAMI Applications

The TSUNAMI-1D and TSUNAMI-3D sequences for generating k eff sensitivity coefficients were first released in SCALE 5 in 2004. Several other tools were introduced in the same release, including primarily the TSUNAMI-IP code for uncertainty analysis and similarity assessments. The TSUNAMI sequences added capabilities for identifying important reactions and data for systems using sensitivity coefficients and also introduced new quantitative tools for rigorously assessing the similarity of systems. Over time, the capabilities of these tools have grown, and their use has expanded into other areas such as nuclear data assessment and nuclear covariance data testing. This paper discusses applications of the TSUNAMI tools for sensitivity calculations, sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U)-based validation, and nuclear data testing. This paper is one of a series of papers at this conference on the development and use of TSUNAMI tools. The other papers address the development of the TSUNAMI methods and the use of TSUNAMI for critical experiment design and optimization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing the ΛCDM Cosmological Model with Forthcoming Measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background with SPT-3G

We forecast constraints on cosmological parameters enabled by three surveys conducted with SPT-3G, the third-generation camera on the South Pole Telescope. The surveys cover separate regions of 1500, 2650, and 6000 deg$^{2}$ to different depths, in total observing 25% of the sky. These regions will be measured to white noise levels of roughly 2.5, 9, and 12μK-armin, respectively, in cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature units at 150 GHz by the end of 2024. The survey also includes measurements at 95 and 220 GHz, which have noise levels a factor of ∼1.2 and 3.5 times higher than 150 GHz, respectively, with each band having a polarization noise level ∼2times higher than the temperature noise. We use a novel approach to obtain the covariance matrices for jointly and optimally estimated gravitational lensing potential band powers and unlensed CMB temperature and polarization band powers. We demonstrate the ability to test the ΛCDM model via the consistency of cosmological parameters constrained independently from SPT-3G and Planck data, and consider the improvement in constraints on ΛCDM extension parameters from a joint analysis of SPT-3G and Planck data. The ΛCDM cosmological parameters are typically constrained with uncertainties up to ∼2 times smaller with SPT-3G data, compared to Planck, with the two data sets measuring significantly different angular scales and polarization levels, providing additional tests of the standard cosmological model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote quantification of Cm(III) and HNO 3 by fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometrics

A unique approach to remotely quantify Cm(III) (0–100 µg mL −1 ) in HNO 3 (1–12 M) using steady-state laser fluorescence spectroscopy and multivariate regression models was developed. Photoluminescence is amenable to remote measurements using fiber-optic cables and is sensitive to numerous lanthanide and actinide species. In-line measurements can provide feedback to support complex processing in harsh environments (e.g., hot cells) to help guide and optimize radiochemical separations. In this work, Cm(III) spectra were acquired remotely in a glove box as a function of HNO 3 concentration to better understand spectral characteristics and evaluate the utility of multivariate regression models in this system. Furthermore, the Cm(III) fluorescence peak shape, width, position, and intensity changed significantly as a function of HNO 3 concentration, likely because of the displacement of emission quenching inner-sphere water molecules and complexation with nitrate ions. Despite significant covariance and nonlinearity in the data, a D-optimal design strategy successfully minimized training set sample size and was used to build effective partial least squares regression models for Cm(III) and HNO 3 concentrations without a priori knowledge of solution conditions. Chemometrics for modeling complex fluorescence spectra are promising and may find widespread applicability for online analysis in numerous chemical systems found in the nuclear field.

Actinide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Soil Thermal Inertia Profiles From the Passive Equilibration of a Temperature Probe

Knowledge of the distribution of soil thermal properties is important for understanding subsurface hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This study describes and evaluates quick thermal profiling (QTP), a new measurement technique aimed at providing rapid, depth-resolved measurements of soil thermal inertia at numerous locations across the landscape. A cylindrical probe with temperature sensors at multiple depths is quickly inserted into the ground, and soil thermal inertia is estimated from how quickly the probe temperature equilibrates with the soil. To this end, a finite volume heat transfer model is used to generate temperature equilibration time series across combinations of controlling factors, and a gridded search inversion approach is applied to infer soil thermal inertia. Field tests in the Arctic indicate that QTP measurements have a minimum uncertainty of 0.14 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 and covary with dual-probe heat pulse thermal analyzer measurements (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.56) with a root-mean-square error of 0.40 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 . Besides demonstrating the value of QTP for estimating thermal inertia, this study identifies various sources of measurement uncertainty, particularly probe-soil contact resistance and frictional heating. Further, analysis of soil samples indicates that thermal inertia can be used to estimate thermal conductivity and dry bulk density in the studied area, although such inferences are highly site-specific. Overall, the QTP method holds promise to generate thermal inertia data products and to complement other characterization approaches for advancing understanding of soil properties across far more locations than is currently possible.

Lamb, J. R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative radiography for determining density fluctuations in HED experiments

We have developed a method to extract density fluctuation measurements from x-ray radiographs of high-energy density (HED) instability growth and turbulence experiments. We use this information to calculate density fluctuation statistics for constraining the performance of turbulent mix models in HED systems. The density calculation combines image filtering, removal of systemic effects such as backlighter variation, calculation of transmission across multiple materials, and use of tracer materials to generate an approximate single-material density field. From the density map, we calculate both average density and a variance-like moment b (density-specific-volume covariance), which we compare to our models. We infer both quantities from a single image, which is significantly more information than the historic single scalar mix width measurements. We also develop a method of analyzing simulation outputs that incorporate both the density fluctuation metric from a turbulence model and the bulk material maps from the hydrodynamic code. This analysis helps address the question of how to initialize the simulations for best comparison to data from systems with large separations of scale in the mixing perturbation initial condition. We find that our data analysis method yields 1D average density and b curves with similar morphology and amplitudes as those from preliminary simulation comparisons.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performing k eff Validation of As-Loaded Criticality Safety Calculations Using UNF-ST&DARDS: Applicable Experiment Selection

The general method for performing validation of as loaded criticality safety calculations using UNF ST&DARDS is presented in a paper by Clarity, which includes a description of the UNF-ST&DARDS system. Proof-of-principle analyses were performed in the summer of 2019 for MPC-32 dual purpose canisters (DPCs) containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assemblies. Summaries of these results are presented in this and a companion paper for this conference. The current paper describes the TSUNAMI-IP calculations performed to select applicable experiments for validation of 11 MPC-32 DPCs. The companion paper discusses the TSUNAMI-3D calculations used to generate sensitivity data to support the experiment selections discussed here. Experiment selection is based on the sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods used to validate criticality safety calculations of as-loaded DPCs containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent nuclear fuel (SNF). This process has been demonstrated and is summarized in this paper. The approach is similar to that used in NUREG/CR-7109, which provides an approach for validation of PWR burnup credit (BUC), including major and minor actinides and major fission products. The premise of S/U-based validation is that applicable experiments—those having a similar bias to a given application system—will have similar sensitivities for each isotope and reaction in the two systems. It is assumed that cross sections with larger uncertainties are more likely to contain data errors which contribute to the bias. The integral index c k thus propagates the system sensitivities with the nuclear covariance data to calculate a correlation coefficient representing the similarity of the two systems. In this work, a c k value of 0.8 or higher is interpreted as identifying an experiment with sufficient similarity for use in validation. This paper presents a brief summary of the characteristics of the 11 MPC-32 DPCs used in the proof of-principle analysis for as-loaded criticality safety calculation validation and an overview of the critical experiment suite with which each of these DPC models was compared. A summary and discussion of c k results is also presented, followed by conclusions and a discussion of future work to be performed for validation of UNF ST&DARDS as-loaded criticality safety calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗