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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

An Update on Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Products and Services at NASA GES DISC

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is home to major NASA satellite precipitation measurement missions including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) as well as other NASA projects. Accurate and timely available global and regional precipitation products play an important role in research and applications around the world. The GES DISC provides near-real-time, near-global precipitation products (e.g.IMERG) to support a wide variety of interdisciplinary research and operational activities including flood modeling, landslides, crop monitoring and assessment, vector-borne diseases, etc. Climate data record products (e.g.GPCP3) are essential for climate research, assessment, model evaluation and applications. To facilitate data access and exploration, the GES DISC has developed data services such asGiovanni, an online visualization and analysis tool for easy access to over 2000 satellite- and model-based variables. Established in the mid 1980s, the GES DISC also distributes data in other disciplines including hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric dynamics, etc. In this presentation, we will present an update on global precipitation products and data services including the new IMERG V06B suite, the latest version of GPCP (Version 3) and value-added data subsetting services (L34RS, L2S).

Liu, Zhong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning-enabled phenotyping for GWAS and TWAS of WUE traits in 869 field-grown sorghum accessions

Abstract Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a model C4 crop made experimentally tractable by extensive genomic and genetic resources. Biomass sorghum is studied as a feedstock for biofuel and forage. Mechanistic modeling suggests that reducing stomatal conductance (gs) could improve sorghum intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and biomass production. Phenotyping to discover genotype-to-phenotype associations remains a bottleneck in understanding the mechanistic basis for natural variation in gs and iWUE. This study addressed multiple methodological limitations. Optical tomography and a machine learning tool were combined to measure stomatal density (SD). This was combined with rapid measurements of leaf photosynthetic gas exchange and specific leaf area (SLA). These traits were the subject of genome-wide association study and transcriptome-wide association study across 869 field-grown biomass sorghum accessions. The ratio of intracellular to ambient CO2 was genetically correlated with SD, SLA, gs, and biomass production. Plasticity in SD and SLA was interrelated with each other and with productivity across wet and dry growing seasons. Moderate-to-high heritability of traits studied across the large mapping population validated associations between DNA sequence variation or RNA transcript abundance and trait variation. A total of 394 unique genes underpinning variation in WUE-related traits are described with higher confidence because they were identified in multiple independent tests. This list was enriched in genes whose Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) putative orthologs have functions related to stomatal or leaf development and leaf gas exchange, as well as genes with nonsynonymous/missense variants. These advances in methodology and knowledge will facilitate improving C4 crop WUE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Research in the application of spectral data to crop identification and assessment, volume 2

The development of spectrometry crop development stage models is discussed with emphasis on models for corn and soybeans. One photothermal and four thermal meteorological models are evaluated. Spectral data were investigated as a source of information for crop yield models. Intercepted solar radiation and soil productivity are identified as factors related to yield which can be estimated from spectral data. Several techniques for machine classification of remotely sensed data for crop inventory were evaluated. Early season estimation, training procedures, the relationship of scene characteristics to classification performance, and full frame classification methods were studied. The optimal level for combining area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans is assessed utilizing current technology: digital analysis of LANDSAT MSS data on sample segments to provide area estimates and regression models to provide yield estimates.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Measurement and Modeling of the Optical Scattering Properties of Crop Canopies

Efforts in measuring, analyzing, and mathematically modeling the specular, polarized, and diffuse light scattering properties of several plant canopies and their component parts (leaves, stems, fruit, soil) as a function of view angle and illumination angle are reported. Specific objectives were: (1) to demonstrate a technique for determining the specular and diffuse components of the reflectance factor of plant canopies; (2) to acquire the measurements and begin assembling a data set for developing and testing canopy reflectance models; (3) to design and build a new optical instrument to measure the light scattering properties of individual leaves; and (4) to use this instrument to survey and investigate the information in the light scattering properties of individual leaves of crops, forests, weeds, and horticulture.

Vanderbilt, V. C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Using knowledge of agricultural practices to enhance through-the-season interpretation of Landsat data

Landsat data contain features that can be interpreted to produce information about crops, in support of crop estimation procedures. This paper considers ways in which detailed knowledge of agricultural practices and events might increase and improve the utilization of Landsat data in both the predictive and observational or measurement components of such procedures. Landsat observables related to agricultural practices and events throughout the cropping season are listed. Agricultural fields are identified as the preferred observational units for incorporating refined agricultural understanding, such as crop rotation patterns, into machine procedures. Uses of Landsat data from both prior seasons and the current season are considered, as is use of predictive models of crop appearance. The investigation of knowledge engineering systems tailored to through-the-season estimation problems is recommended for long range development.

Malila, W. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pest suppression potential varies across 10 bioenergy cropping systems

Abstract Top‐down suppression of herbivores is a fundamental ecological process and a critical service in agricultural landscapes. Adoption of bioenergy cropping systems is likely to become an increasingly important driver causing loss or gain of this service in coming decades. We measured natural pest suppression potential in ten model bioenergy crops in a long‐term experimental array by deploying plasticine sentinel caterpillar mimics, which record imprints from predator attacks. Cropping systems included three intensive annual row crop systems and a range of simple perennial monocultures and more complex polycultures. We compared attack rates across the ten cropping systems and assessed differences over time within a growing season and between the ground level and canopy. We found strong differences in attack rates across cropping systems, usually with more attacks in perennial crops than annuals. However, outcomes varied in space and time, both within and among cropping systems. Birds and small mammals were responsible for most, and sometimes all, attacks in annual crops and were most important early in the season. Chewing arthropod attacks increased over the course of the growing season and were responsible for most attack events in perennial systems. In late summer there were almost no attacks in annual crop canopies, while attack rates in perennial canopies at the same time were quite high and were carried out almost entirely by chewing arthropods. Our results underscore the lack of trophic complexity in annual bioenergy cropping systems relative to perennials. They also illustrate the dramatic changes in predator activity and predation intensity that occur both seasonally and between the ground and plant canopy. Policies and practices that increase the footprint of annual crops for bioenergy are likely to cause a deficit in pest suppression services at local and landscape scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5

Abstract. Irrigated cultivation exerts a significant influence on the local climate and the hydrological cycle. The North China Plain (NCP) is known for its intricate agricultural system, marked by expansive cropland, high productivity, compact rotation, a semi-arid climate, and intensive irrigation practices. As a result, there has been considerable attention on the potential impact of this intensive irrigated agriculture on the local climate. However, studying the irrigation impact in this region has been challenging due to the lack of an accurate simulation of crop phenology and irrigation practices within the climate model. By incorporating double cropping with interactive irrigation, our study extends the capabilities of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, which has previously demonstrated commendable performance in simulating single-cropping scenarios. This allows for two-way feedback between irrigated crops and climate, further enabling the inclusion of irrigation feedback from both ground and vegetation perspectives. The improved crop modeling system shows significant enhancement in capturing vegetation and irrigation patterns, which is evidenced by its ability to identify crop stages, estimate field biomass, predict crop yield, and project monthly leaf area index. The improved simulation of large-scale irrigated crops in the NCP can further enhance our understanding of the intricate relationship between agricultural development and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Food Insecurity and Famine From Reduced Crop, Marine Fishery and Livestock Production Due to Climate Disruption From Nuclear War Soot Injection

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth’s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia—underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Atmospheric soot↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tree Canopy Light Interception Estimates in Almond and a Walnut Orchards Using Ground, Low Flying Aircraft, and Satellite Based Methods to Improve Irrigation Scheduling Programs

Canopy light interception is a main driver of water use and crop yield in almond and walnut production. Fractional green canopy cover (Fc) is a good indicator of light interception and can be estimated remotely from satellite using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Satellite-based Fc estimates could be used to inform crop evapotranspiration models, and hence support improvements in irrigation evaluation and management capabilities. Satellite estimates of Fc in almond and walnut orchards, however, need to be verified before incorporating them into irrigation scheduling or other crop water management programs. In this study, Landsat-based NDVI and Fc from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) were compared with four estimates of canopy cover: 1. light bar measurement, 2. in-situ and image-based dimensional tree-crown analyses, 3. high-resolution NDVI data from low flying aircraft, and 4. orchard photos obtained via Google Earth and processed by an Image J thresholding routine. Correlations between the various estimates are discussed.

Satellite↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗
NASA NTRS1991

A model of regional primary production for use with coarse resolution satellite data

A model of crop primary production, which was originally developed to relate the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) to net production in field studies, is discussed in the context of coarse resolution regional remote sensing of primary production. The model depends on an approximately linear relationship between APAR and the normalized difference vegetation index. A more comprehensive form of the conventional model is shown to be necessary when different physiological types of plants or heterogeneous vegetation types occur within the study area. The predicted variable in the new model is total assimilation (net production plus respiration) rather than net production alone or harvest yield.

Prince, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies

Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.

Bauer, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS1982

Development of visible/infrared/microwave agriculture classification and biomass estimation algorithms

Agricultural crop classification models using two or more spectral regions (visible through microwave) are considered in an effort to estimate biomass at Guymon, Oklahoma Dalhart, Texas. Both grounds truth and aerial data were used. Results indicate that inclusion of C, L, and P band active microwave data, from look angles greater than 35 deg from nadir, with visible and infrared data improve crop discrimination and biomass estimates compared to results using only visible and infrared data. The microwave frequencies were sensitive to different biomass levels. The K and C band were sensitive to differences at low biomass levels, while P band was sensitive to differences at high biomass levels. Two indices, one using only active microwave data and the other using data from the middle and near infrared bands, were well correlated to total biomass. It is implied that inclusion of active microwave sensors with visible and infrared sensors on future satellites could aid in crop discrimination and biomass estimation.

Rosenthal, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

exhaust gases↗
NASA NTRS1984

Automatic corn-soybean classification using Landsat MSS data. I - Near-harvest crop proportion estimation. II - Early season crop proportion estimation

The techniques used initially for the identification of cultivated crops from Landsat imagery depended greatly on the iterpretation of film products by a human analyst. This approach was not very effective and objective. Since 1978, new methods for crop identification are being developed. Badhwar et al. (1982) showed that multitemporal-multispectral data could be reduced to a simple feature space of alpha and beta and that these features would separate corn and soybean very well. However, there are disadvantages related to the use of alpha and beta parameters. The present investigation is concerned with a suitable method for extracting the required features. Attention is given to a profile model for crop discrimination, corn-soybean separation using profile parameters, and an automatic labeling (target recognition) method. The developed technique is extended to obtain a procedure which makes it possible to estimate the crop proportion of corn and soybean from Landsat data early in the growing season.

Badhwar, G. D.↗