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DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Constraints on mantle viscosity from relative sea level variations in Hudson Bay

Frechet kernels for the RSL data in Hunson Bay are computed to determine the detailed depth-dependent sensitivity of the data to variations in a viscosity profile which is consistent with the past inferences. The RSL data provide a robust constraint on the average viscosity in the top half of the lower mantle only (the average must be near 10 exp 21 Pa s). The data admit models whose average viscosity in the deep mantle (below 1800 km depth) and in the upper mantle can differ significantly from the value (near 10 exp 21 Pa s) estimated for the top half of the lower mantle. The total variation in the viscosity from the surface to the CMB can exceed an order of magnitude or more and still satisfy the constraint provided by the Hudson Bay RSL data set. The necessity of invoking an isoviscous mantle model in previous studies is a consequence of the limited class of viscosity model solutions employed in those studies.

Mitrovica, J. X.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Recent advances in radar remote sensing of forest

On a global scale, forests represent most of the terrestrial standing biomass (80 to 90 percent). Thus, natural and anthropogenic change in forest covers can have major impacts not only on local ecosystems but also on global hydrologic, climatic, and biogeochemical cycles that involve exchange of energy, water, carbon, and other elements between the earth and atmosphere. Quantitative information on the state and dynamics of forest ecosystems and their interactions with the global cycles appear necessary to understand how the earth works as a natural system. The information required includes the lateral and vertical distribution of forest cover, the estimates of standing biomass (woody and foliar volume), the phenological and environmental variations and disturbances (clearcutting, fires, flood), and the longer term variations following deforestation (regeneration, successional stages). To this end, seasonal, annual, and decadal information is necessary in order to separate the long term effects in the global ecosystem from short term seasonal and interannual variations. Optical remote sensing has been used until now to study the forest cover at local, regional, and global scales. Radar remote sensing, which provides recent SAR data from space on a regular basis, represents an unique means of consistently monitoring different time scales, at all latitudes and in any atmospheric conditions. Also, SAR data have shown the potential to detect several forest parameters that cannot be inferred from optical data. The differences--and complementarity--lie in the penetration capabilities of SAR data and their sensitivity to dielectric and geometric properties of the canopy volume, whereas optical data are sensitive to the chemical composition of the external foliar layer of the vegetation canopy.

Letoan, Thuy↗

NASA NTRS1985

Curie isotherm surfaces inferred from high-altitude magnetic anomaly data

Two-dimensional Curie depth models along two sections across the western United States are derived using an equivalent layer magnetization model derived from Magsat data, and the results are used to constrain finite element thermal models developed by Mayhew and Majer (1980). Regional heat flow variations predicted by the models compare favorably with those inferred from direct measurements. The methodology is applied to upward-continued aeromagnetic data, and the results are found to be in good agreement with previous Curie depth estimates and average measured heat flow.

Mayhew, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Transient medium-scale wave activity in the summer stratosphere

Observations of medium-scale transient wave activity in the middle-latitude Southern Hemisphere summer stratosphere are interpreted using isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) distributions inferred from temperature data from the Nimbus-7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument. Despite problems with errors in reference-level synoptic height information, the derived IPV distributions clearly exhibit dynamically coherent signatures of eddy mixing due to medium-scale disturbances in the lower-middle stratosphere during early January 1979. The IPV distributions are shown to be strongly correlated with those of a contemporaneous set of isentropic maps of quasi-conservative tracers such as ozone and nitric acid. The results suggest that IPV maps inferred from satellite temperature data provide a useful diagnostic for studies of large-scale dynamics and/or transport in the extratropical stratosphere. Furthermore, the comparatively high vertical resolution of the LIMS data has enabled the vertical attenuation of Southern Hemisphere wave activity to be diagnosed in greater detail than could be achieved from nadir-viewing satellite information.

Miles, T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analyzing spacecraft configurations through specialization and default reasoning

For an intelligent system to describe a real-world situation using as few statements as possible, it is necessary to make inferences based on observed data and to incorporate general knowledge of the reasoning domain into the description. These reasoning processes must reduce several levels of specific descriptions into only those few that most precisely describe the situation. Moreover, the system must be able to generate descriptions in the absence of data, as instructed by certain rules of inference. The deductions applied by the system, then, generate a high-level description from the low-level evidence provided by the real and default data sources. An implementation of these ideas in a real-world situation is described. The application concerns evaluation of Space Shuttle electromechanical system configurations by console operators in the Mission Control Center. A production system provides the reasoning mechanism through which the default assignments and specializations occur. Examples are provided within this domain for each type of inference, and the suitability is discussed of each toward achieving the goal of describing a situation in the fewest statements possible. Finally, several enhancements are suggested that will further increase the intelligence of similar spacecraft monitoring applications.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Metadata Action Language

The data management problem comprises data processing and data tracking. Data processing is the creation of new data based on existing data sources. Data tracking consists of storing metadata descriptions of available data. This paper addresses the data management problem by casting it as an AI planning problem. Actions are data-processing commands, plans are dataflow programs and goals are metadata descriptions of desired data products. Data manipulation is simply plan generation and execution, and a key component of data tracking is inferring the effects of an observed plan. We introduce a new action language for data management domains, called ADILM. We discuss the connection between data processing and information integration and show how a language for the latter must be modified to support the former. The paper also discusses information gathering within a data-processing framework, and show how ADILM metadata expressions are a generalization of Local Completeness.

Golden, Keith↗

NASA NTRS1980

Geologic application of thermal inertia imaging using HCMM data

The feasibility of using thermal inertia, inferred from remotely sensed temperature data, to complement LANDSAT reflectivity data for reconnaissance geologic mapping and mineral exploration is under investigation. The bulk of HCMM data tapes was received and processed, and a thermal inertia image of one data set was made. Additional areas of interest were identified on the HCMM photographic products and data tapes were ordered for these areas. During analysis of selected subareas, various sedimentary rock units were distinguished in the Death Valley, California test site and areas of altered rock were identified in the Cuprite/Goldifield, Nevada test site.

Paley, H. N.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Concentrations and uncertainties of stratospheric trace species inferred from limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere data. I - Methodology and application to OH and HO2. II - Monthly averaged OH, HO2, H2O2, and HO2NO2

Difficulties arise in connection with the verification of multidimensional chemical models of the stratosphere. The present study shows that LIMS data, together with a photochemical equilibrium model, may be used to infer concentrations of a variety of zonally averaged trace Ox, OHx, and NOx species over much of the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, where the photochemical equilibrium assumption for HOx species breaks down, inferred concentrations should still be accurate to about a factor of 2 for OH and 2.5 for HO2. The algebraic nature of the considered model makes it possible to see easily to the first order the effect of variation of any model input parameter or its uncertainty on the inferred concontration of the HOx species and their uncertainties.

Kaye, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Application of remotely sensed multispectral data to automated analysis of marshland vegetation. Inference to the location of breeding habitats of the salt marsh mosquito (Aedes Sollicitans)

The techniques used for the automated classification of marshland vegetation and for the color-coded display of remotely acquired data to facilitate the control of mosquito breeding are presented. A multispectral scanner system and its mode of operation are described, and the computer processing techniques are discussed. The procedures for the selection of calibration sites are explained. Three methods for displaying color-coded classification data are presented.

Cibula, W. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Size-density relations in dark clouds: Non-LTE effects

One of the major goals of molecular astronomy has been to understand the physics and dynamics of dense interstellar clouds. Because the interpretation of observations of giant molecular clouds is complicated by their very complex structure and the dynamical effects of star formation, a number of studies have concentrated on dark clouds. Leung, Kutner and Mead (1982) (hereafter LKM) and Myers (1983), in studies of CO and NH3 emission, concluded that dark clouds exhibit significant correlations between linewidth and cloud radius of the form delta v varies as R(0.5) and between mean density and radius of the form n varies as R(-1), as originally suggested by Larson (1981). This result suggests that these objects are in virial equilibrium. However, the mean densities inferred from the CO data of LKM are based on an local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) analysis of their 13CO data. At the very low mean densities inferred by LKM for the larger clouds in their samples, the assumption of LTE becomes very questionable. As most of the range in R in the density-size correlation comes from the clouds observed in CO, it seems worthwhile to examine how non-LTE effects will influence the derived densities. One way to assess the validity of LTE-derived densities is to construct cloud models and then to interpret them in the same way as the observed data. Microturbulent models of inhomogeneous clouds of varying central concentration with the linewidth-size and mean density-size relations found by Myers show sub-thermal excitation of the 13CO line in the larger clouds, with the result that LTE analysis considerbly underestimates the actual column density. A more general approach which doesn't require detailed modeling of the clouds is to consider whether the observed T sub R*(13CO)/T sub R*(12CO) ratios in the clouds studied by LKM are in the range where the LTE-derived optical depths (and hence column densities) can be seriously in error due to sub-thermal excitation of the 13CO molecule.

Maloney, P.↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Determination of tropical cyclone surface pressure and winds from satellite microwave data

An approach to the problem of deducing wind speed and pressure around tropical cyclones is presented. The technique, called the Surface Wind Inference from Microwave data (SWIM technique, uses satellites microwave sounder data to measure upper tropospheric temperature anomalies which may then be related to surface pressure anomalies through the hydrostatic and radiative transfer equations. Surface pressure gradients outside of the radius of maximum wind are estimated for the first time. Future instruments may be able to estimate central pressure with + or - 0/1 kPa accuracy.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

Prabhakara, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Precipitating electron energy flux and auroral zone conductances - An empirical model

Data from the low energy electron (LEE) experiments on the Atmosphere Explorer C and D satellites have been used to determine the average global distribution of the energy flux of precipitating auroral electrons and their average energy for different levels of geomagnetic activity. Measurements from the Atmosphere Explorer unified abstract file (15-s resolution) have been binned according to invariant latitude (in the range 50-90 deg), magnetic local time, and geomagnetic activity as measured by the Kp and auroral electrojet (AE) indices, separately. Bin-averaged values of precipitating energy flux and average energy have been calculated, and a smoothing algorithm used to reduce stochastic variations in the raw data. The results indicate that, for the parameters studied, the AE inces does a superior job of ordering the data with regard to geomagnetic activity. The global distribution of the auroral enhancement porition of the Pedersen and Hall conductances were inferred from the data by means of an empirical fit to detailed energy deposition calculations.

Spiro, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An improved algorithm for retrieval of snow wetness using C-band AIRSAR

This study shows recent results of our efforts to develop and verify an algorithm for snow wetness retrieval from a polarimetric SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). Our algorithm is based on the first-order scattering model with consideration of both surface and volume scattering. It operates at C-band and requires only rough information about the ice volume fraction in snowpack. Comparing ground measurements and inferred from JPL AIRSAR data, the results showed that the relative error inferred from SAR imagery was within 25 percent. The inferred snow wetness from different looking geometries (two flight passes) provided consistent results within 2 percent. Both regional and point measurement comparisons between the ground and SAR derived snow wetness indicates that the inversion algorithm performs well using AIRSAR (Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar) data and should prove useful for routine and large-area snow wetness (in top layer of a snowpack) measurements.

Shi, Jiancheng↗