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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Interlayer Delay on the Heat Accumulation, Microstructures, and Properties in Laser Hot Wire Directed Energy Deposition of Ti-6Al-4V Single-Wall

Laser hot wire directed energy deposition (LHW-DED) is a layer-by-layer additive manufacturing technique that permits the fabrication of large-scale Ti-6Al-4V (Ti64) components with a high deposition rate and has gained traction in the aerospace sector in recent years. However, one of the major challenges in LHW-DED Ti64 is heat accumulation, which affects the part quality, microstructure, and properties of as-built specimens. These issues require a comprehensive understanding of the layerwise heat-accumulation-driven process–structure–property relationship in as-deposited samples. In this study, a systematic investigation was performed by fabricating three Ti-6Al-4V single-wall specimens with distinct interlayer delays, i.e., 0, 120, and 300 s. The real-time acquisition of high-fidelity thermal data and high-resolution melt pool images were utilized to demonstrate a direct correlation between layerwise heat accumulation and melt pool dimensions. The results revealed that the maximum heat buildup temperature of the topmost layer decreased from 660 °C to 263 °C with an increase to a 300 s interlayer delay, allowing for better control of the melt pool dimensions, which then resulted in improved part accuracy. Furthermore, the investigation of the location-specific composition, microstructure, and mechanical properties demonstrated that heat buildup resulted in the coarsening of microstructures and, consequently, the reduction of micro-hardness with increasing height. Extending the delay by 120 s resulted in a 5% improvement in the mechanical properties, including an increase in the yield strength from 817 MPa to 859 MPa and the ultimate tensile strength from 914 MPa to 959 MPa. Cooling rates estimated at 900 °C using a one-dimensional thermal model based on a numerical method allowed us to establish the process–structure–property relationship for the wall specimens. The study provides deeper insight into the effect of heat buildup in LHW-DED and serves as a guide for tailoring the properties of as-deposited specimens by regulating interlayer delay.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Models: Methodologies, Applications, and New Directions

As climate models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need to comprehensively and systematically assess model performance with respect to observations. Given the increasing number and diversity of climate model simulations in use, the community has moved beyond simple model intercomparison and toward developing methods capable of benchmarking a large number of simulations against a suite of climate metrics. Here, we present a detailed review of evaluation and benchmarking methods and approaches developed in the last decade, focusing primarily on scientific implications for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations and CMIP6 results that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Based on this review, we explain the resulting contemporary philosophy of model benchmarking, and provide clear distinctions and definitions of the terms model verification, process validation, evaluation, and benchmarking. While significant progress has been made in model development based on systematic evaluation and benchmarking efforts, some climate system biases still remain. The development of open‐source community software packages has played a fundamental role in identifying areas of significant model improvement and bias reduction. We review the key features of several software packages that have been commonly used over the past decade to evaluate and benchmark global and regional climate models. Additionally, we discuss best practices for the selection of evaluation and benchmarking metrics and for interpreting the obtained results, the importance of selecting suitable sources of reference data and accurate uncertainty quantification.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cathodic Decomposition Electrodes as Standard Reference Electrodes for Molten Salts: Example of the Lithium Eutectic Electrode for the LiCl-KCl Eutectic

Alternatives to the widely-used standard anodic decomposition reference electrodes in molten salts are necessary to enable more easily reproduced thermochemical and electrochemical data in molten salt electrolytes. The class of standard reference electrodes called cathodic decomposition electrodes (CDEs) are easily constructed and can be used to make thermochemical measurements in molten salts more directly compared to anodic decomposition electrodes. The lithium eutectic electrode (LEE) was chosen as a sample test case for validation and was applied to thermochemical measurements of electroactive species in molten LiCl-KCl eutectic. Transient measurements were made to measure the Li + /Li reduction potential at zero current in pure LiCl-KCl eutectic relative to a Li-alloy reference electrode to validate the reference potential of the LEE. Literature-reported electromotive force measurements against Li-alloy reference electrodes were used to generate a relationship between the LEE and the standard chlorine electrode and this relationship was used to evaluate measured and reported formal potential measurements for the LiCl-KCl-GdCl 3 system. This work demonstrates the general framework for defining CDEs for any molten salt system and a method for calibrating external reference electrodes against a CDE standard reference electrode, improving the ease of obtaining thermochemical and electrochemical measurements in any molten salt system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving constraints on inflation with CMB delensing

Abstract The delensing of cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps will be increasingly valuable for extracting as much information as possible from future CMB surveys. Delensing provides many general benefits, including sharpening of the acoustic peaks, more accurate recovery of the damping tail, and reduction of lensing-inducedB-mode power. In this paper we present several applications of delensing focused on testing theories of early-universe inflation with observations of the CMB. We find that delensing the CMB results in improved parameter constraints for reconstructing the spectrum of primordial curvature fluctuations, probing oscillatory features in the primordial curvature spectrum, measuring the spatial curvature of the universe, and constraining several different models of isocurvature perturbations. In some cases we find that delensing can recover almost all of the constraining power contained in unlensed spectra, and it will be a particularly valuable analysis technique to achieve further improvements in constraints for model parameters whose measurements are not expected to improve significantly when utilizing only lensed CMB maps from next-generation CMB surveys. We also quantify the prospects of testing the single-field inflation tensor consistency condition using delensed CMB data; we find it to be out of reach of current and proposed experimental technology and advocate for alternative detection methods.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

A rapid embodied carbon assessment tool for priority materials

Embodied carbon limits within building materials are a driving factor in global trade, generating new research and analysis tools in industry. These product assessments, which require utilizing life-cycle assessment (LCA) across broad supply chains, can be expensive, time and data-intensive, and subject to significant variations. Existing methods and tools, such as specific environmental product declarations, typically do not capture these variations and dynamics in supply and manufacturing. Moreover, models and tools must enable stakeholders to assess customized supply chains and future scenarios. In this study, we present the Rapid Embodied Carbon Assessment and Target-setting for Emissions-intensive Materials (REDuCE) tool for building materials. We developed a tool that allows users to select production technologies, transportation mode and distances, concrete carbonation, fuel sources, and regional electricity mixes to supply customization for cement and concrete produced and consumed in California. We generated and integrated a material demand model using residential building stock projections. We provide the user with a wide range of mitigation alternatives through low-carbon production pathways, material use efficiency, transportation modes, and projected electricity grid mixes. In a case study application through four mitigation scenarios, we find emission savings up to 80% by maximizing user mitigation alternatives, primarily driven by reductions in material use intensities. This work represents a foundation for expanding LCA and embodied carbon tools to better enable stakeholders to rapidly and accurately assess customized supply chains while meeting trade requirements.

building materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Radiation-Induced Plutonium Redox Chemistry using Multi-scale Modeling Methods

Over the the last 70 years plutonium (Pu) has been integral in the development of several technologies that have changed the world, yet our fundamental understanding of its chemistry is still far from complete. This is a testament to this element’s unique and complex properties, such as its ability to coexist as multiple oxidation states in aqueous solution. Careful manipulation of plutonium oxidation states is essential in the study and utilization of its rich chemistry. To achieve this level of control, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry is critical due to the unavoidable exposure of plutonium to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. For this reason, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multi-scale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu(IV) redox chemistry in concentrated nitric acid solutions (1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 M). Under these acidic, aqueous solution conditions, cobalt-60 gamma irradiation afforded negligible net change in the steady-state oxidation state distribution of Pu(IV). Multi-scale calculations, which are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicate that this observation is due to radiation-induced redox cycling between Pu(IV) and Pu(III), as achieved by the reduction of Pu(IV) by radiolytic nitrous acid and hydrogen peroxide, and the oxidation of Pu(III) by nitrate and hydroxyl radicals. These radiation-induced redox processes are augmented by plutonium’s inherent disproportionation reactions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from Stewart et al. 2026 "Organic Colloid Composition in Variable-Redox Porewaters within a Mountainous Floodplain"

Redox gradients, often driven by changes in sediment moisture levels in porous, heterogeneous groundwater systems, create dynamic conditions that may promote the production and transport of colloids within natural waters. While much research has focused on the inorganic composition of colloids, the organic composition remains less well understood. Organic matter (OM) in colloids may associate with minerals, complex metal ions, and serve as an electron donor for microbial respiration; therefore, its composition is of high interest. We examined the composition of porewater OM along a redox gradient in a riparian soil located along the Slate River in Crested Butte, Colorado, USA as a function of depth (90, 130, 200, and 350 cm below ground surface). All depths were oxic to suboxic, except 200 cm, where the products of iron and sulfate reduction were observed concomitant with an increase in dissolved and/or colloidal OM, pH, alkalinity, and conductivity. We investigated the composition of porewater using correlated scanning transmission X-ray microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. We observed a change in the OM chemistry from carboxylate-rich at the 200 cm depth (where it was also enmeshed with non-crystalline iron) to phenol- and substituted-aromatic-rich at other depths. Radiocarbon dating revealed carbon in porewater at 200 cm was younger than depths above and below. Soil porewater can flow down into the underlaying gravel bed during baseflow conditions, thus we speculate whether riparian porewater could transport iron- and carboxylate-rich organic colloids into surrounding surface waters through the gravel bed conduit. This data package includes geochemical data (.csv) as a function of depth from porewaters in OBJ1. Measurements included are pH, conductivity, TOC, Fe concentration, sulfate concentration, dissolved oxygen. Additionally radiocarbon dating age of carbon in samples is provided. Additionally, this dataset contains metadata files (.csv) describing the methods, file contents, and column headers.

alpine floodplain↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microwave-Assisted Gasification of Biochar: Effect of Operational Parameters and Biochar Composition on Syngas Production

The utilization of microwave-assisted gasification for biomass/plastic is a promising route toward clean energy production, contributing to a reduction in carbon footprint. This method facilitates the conversion of biomass into syngas with enhanced hydrogen (H2) yield, surpassing conventional heating approaches. However, the gasification of biochar, a byproduct resulting from the initial rapid pyrolysis of biomass, appears as a rate-determining step in biomass gasification. To ensure high conversion efficiency, particularly in pilot or larger scales, the maintenance of high biochar reactivity is essential, which can be achieved by introducing catalysts to minimize biochar formation. Furthermore, given the susceptibility of biochar to microwave heating, gaining a comprehensive understanding of its behavior in the presence of microwave-active catalysts under microwave conditions is crucial to obtain valuable insights into the underlying mechanisms, thereby improving overall biomass gasification efficiency. In the previous study, magnetite (Fe3O4) was selected for microwave-assisted gasification for biomass/plastic due to its dual role as a catalyst and microwave absorber and demonstrated considerably enhanced hydrogen production. Herein, Fe3O4 is rationally modified with metal promoters and their synergistic effect toward biochar gasification performance is investigated. The data shows that metal promoted Fe3O4 shows a higher syngas yield than that of pristine Fe3O4 in biochar.

Mai, Duy Hien↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Block encoding of the three-dimensional heterogeneous Poisson equation with application to fracture flow

Quantum linear system (QLS) algorithms offer the potential to solve large-scale linear systems exponentially faster than classical methods. However, applying QLS algorithms to real-world problems remains challenging due to issues such as state preparation, data loading, and efficient information extraction. In this work, we study the feasibility of applying QLS algorithms to solve discretized three-dimensional (3D) heterogeneous Poisson equations, with specific examples relating to groundwater flow through geologic fracture networks. We explicitly construct a block encoding for the 3D heterogeneous Poisson matrix by leveraging the sparse local structure of the discretized operator. While classical solvers benefit from preconditioning, we show that block encoding the system matrix and preconditioner separately does not improve the effective condition number that dominates the QLS run-time. This differs from classical approaches where the preconditioner and the system matrix can often be implemented independently. Nevertheless, due to the structure of the problem in three dimensions, the quantum algorithm achieves a run-time of 𝑂⁡(𝑁 2/3 polylog 𝑁 ⋅log (1/𝜖)), outperforming the best classical methods (with run times of 𝑂⁡(𝑁⁢log 𝑁 ⋅log (1/𝜖))) and offering exponential memory savings. These results highlight both the promise and limitations of QLS algorithms for practical scientific computing, and point to effective condition-number reduction as a key barrier in achieving quantum advantages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Accelerated Clip Algorithm for Unstructured Meshes: A Batch-Driven Approach

The clip technique is a popular method for visualizing complex structures and phenomena within 3D unstructured meshes. Meshes can be clipped by specifying a scalar isovalue to produce an output unstructured mesh with its external surface as the isovalue. Similar to isocontouring, the clipping process relies on scalar data associated with the mesh points, including scalar data generated by implicit functions such as planes, boxes, and spheres, which facilitates the visualization of results interior to the grid. In this paper, we introduce a novel batch-driven parallel algorithm based on a sequential clip algorithm designed for high-quality results in partial volume extraction. Our algorithm comprises five passes, each progressively processing data to generate the resulting clipped unstructured mesh. The novelty lies in the use of fixed-size batches of points and cells, which enable rapid workload trimming and parallel processing, leading to a significantly improved memory footprint and run-time performance compared to the original version. On a 32-core CPU, the proposed batch-driven parallel algorithm demonstrates a run-time speed-up of up to 32.6x and a memory footprint reduction of up to 4.37x compared to the existing sequential algorithm. The software is currently available under an open-source license in the VTK visualization system.

Tsalikis, Spiros↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-Resolved X-ray Emission Spectroscopy and Synthetic High-Spin Model Complexes Resolve Ambiguities in Excited-State Assignments of Transition-Metal Chromophores: A Case Study of Fe-Amido Complexes

To fully harness the potential of abundant metal coordination complex photosensitizers, a detailed understanding of the molecular properties that dictate and control the electronic excited-state population dynamics initiated by light absorption is critical. In the absence of detectable luminescence, optical transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy is the most widely employed method for interpreting electron redistribution in such excited states, particularly for those with a charge-transfer character. The assignment of excited-state TA spectral features often relies on spectroelectrochemical measurements, where the transient absorption spectrum generated by a metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) electronic excited state, for instance, can be approximated using steady-state spectra generated by electrochemical ligand reduction and metal oxidation and accounting for the loss of absorptions by the electronic ground state. However, the reliability of this approach can be clouded when multiple electronic configurations have similar optical signatures. Using a case study of Fe(II) complexes supported by benzannulated diarylamido ligands, we highlight an example of such an ambiguity and show how time-resolved X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) measurements can reliably assign excited states from the perspective of the metal, particularly in conjunction with accurate synthetic models of ligand-field electronic excited states, leading to a reinterpretation of the long-lived excited state as a ligand-field metal-centered quintet state. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the XES data on the long-lived excited state is presented, along with a discussion of the ultrafast dynamics following the photoexcitation of low-spin Fe(II)-N amido complexes using a high-spin ground-state analogue as a spectral model for the 5 T 2 excited state.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing and Exploring Untapped Micro-Hydro Hybrid Systems: a Multi-Objective Approach for Crystal Lake as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution

Increasing electricity demand and concerns about climate change and fossil fuel consumption have highlighted the importance of renewable energy resources and storage systems. This paper proposes a method for exploring untapped pumped hydro storage potentials to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation profiles. Hourly measured data from 2022 in Benzie County, Michigan, United States, were gathered for system sizing and a thorough, realistic analysis. By employing the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm, we formulated optimal sizing and energy-management strategies for three different scenarios. Unlike similar studies, the 3rd with triple objective functions (OFs) scenario aims to maximize both reliability and ecological OFs while minimizing the cost OF. It has shown promising results with multiple solutions, considering economic, environmental, and reliability factors. A case study conducted in Crystal Lake, Michigan, revealed that although Crystal Lake would function only as a micro-hydro power facility, it is a promising and huge storage unit with a substantial storage capacity of around 14.9734GWh. The system investigated is significant in the USA due to its rapid deployment capabilities, minimal construction requirements, and ease of integration with the distribution grid. The fuzzy logic method was employed to identify the best non-dominant solution among the other solutions. Furthermore, these outcomes include a notably low levelized cost of energy at 0.046147$/kWh, a robust index of reliability of 99.705%, and a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions amounting to 7.9142×10 3 tons/year, when considering the triple OFs. The paper’s methodology provides valuable insights for regions aiming to utilize renewable energy from untapped storage sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Imaging of Cobalt Phthalocyanine Distribution on Carbon Nanotubes: A Deep Learning Approach to Catalyst Characterization

Electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) offers a pathway to valuable products, with catalysts playing a crucial role. This study investigates the distribution of cobalt tetraaminophthalocyanine (CoPc-NH 2 ) immobilized on carbon nanotubes (CNTs), utilizing high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy (HAADF-STEM) to characterize CoPc-NH 2 distribution. A challenge in the quantitative HAADF-STEM analysis is the introduction of bias from manual Co atom identification. To address this, we developed and trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) using a data set generated from images of CoPc-NH 2 /CNT samples with varying Co loadings. The CNN, implemented in TensorFlow and Keras, facilitated Co atom detections. Analysis of the CNN-generated data confirmed a correlation between Co loading and surface density, consistent with findings from UV–vis spectroscopy. Furthermore, the application of Ripley’s L(d) function highlighted the presence of slight Co atom clustering. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the utility of the combined HAADF-STEM and CNN approach for providing spatially resolved information about catalyst distribution on nonplanar supports, revealing structural details that are typically lost through other characterization methods.

HAADF-STEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗