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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-33992-DND

The CERES Science Team integrates and fuses observations from 6 CERES instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua, S-NPP, and NOAA-20 missions with data from more than 20 other unique data sources. Following the November 2017 launch of CERES Flight Model 6 (FM6) onboard NOAA20, CERES has now amassed over 80 instrument-years of valuable Earth radiation budget data. The rapidly growing volume of CERES data coupled with the introduction of new data products alongside improvements to existing science algorithms fosters the requirement for faster, more flexible, and scalable data production and orchestration. New virtualized, cloud-centric compute hardware hosted by the NASA Langley Research Center’s (LaRC) Atmospheric Sciences Data Center (ASDC) provides an ideal environment for these ever-increasing data production demands for CERES. This poster discusses updates to the implementation of the CERES Data Management Team’s (DMT) CERES AuTomAted job Loading sYSTem (CATALYST), a custom data processing workflow engine for CERES, to use on-demand computing resources to perform automated CERES data production processing in a Linux-based container environment. Linux containers provide CERES the flexibility to build multiple production environments in containers tailored for specific workloads and allow effortless provisioning of resources based on the CERES Science Team’s data production requirements.

Thomas N. Hillyer↗
NASA NTRS2026

Hyperspectral Detail Meets Radiometric Accuracy: A Foundational Reflected Solar Capability for the Coming Decade

Hyperspectral Earth-reflected solar measurements contain rich, detailed information about clouds, aerosols, and the atmosphere. This information compounds when paired with high, SI-traceable radiometric accuracy. Unlike spectral resolution, which can be resampled to coarser spectral resolutions, radiometric accuracy cannot be recovered once a measurement is made, making the choice to invest in this capability now a decision with lasting consequences for the climate record. CLARREO Pathfinder is demonstrating that this combination of hyperspectral sampling and benchmark-quality accuracy is achievable today, but no follow-on mission is currently planned within NASA's Earth Science Division portfolio, and the recent cancellation of the European Space Agency TRUTHS mission has heightened the urgency of sustaining this capability. We recommend prioritizing investment in a follow-on to CLARREO Pathfinder, along with dedicated support for the science community to fully exploit these measurements. This capability would reduce long-standing uncertainties in cloud feedback, aerosol forcing, and global energy imbalance, while providing a degradation-resistant, gap-resilient calibration foundation for the broader Earth observing system. Building on flight-proven technology and an engaged science community, this is a near-term, fiscally realistic opportunity to secure a foundational Earth observation capability for the coming decade.

satellite↗
DOE OSTI2024

SAIL Supermicron Bioaerosol (SSB) Field Campaign Report

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Supermicron Bioaerosol (SSB) study was designed to complement the larger Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) SAIL science goals to understand aerosol processes and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Colorado River’s East River Watershed Basin. Supermicron aerosol, particles larger than one micron in diameter, and bioaerosols, primary particles containing biological material, are important for understanding atmospheric processes and sources within high mountainous terrain. For example, they can interact with clouds and the water cycle such as by serving as nuclei for cloud droplets and ice crystals that can eventually result in precipitation events. These particles can also be recycled back to the surface via wet and dry deposition, where they can alter plant and microbial growth and/or be reemitted again, forming a positive feedback loop within the Earth system known as bioprecipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Atmospheric environment for Space Shuttle (STS-27) launch

Selected articles on atmospheric conditions observed near Space Shuttle STS-27 launch time on December 2, 1988, at Kennedy Space Center, Florida are summarized. STS-27 carried a Department of Defense payload and the flight azimuth in this report will be denoted by reference flight azimuth, since the actual flight azimuth is not known. Values of ambient pressure, temperature, moisture, ground winds, visual observations (cloud), and winds aloft are included. The sequence of pre-launch Jimsphere-measured vertical wind profiles is given. The final atmospheric tape, which consists of wind and thermodynamic parameters versus altitude, for STS-27 vehicle ascent was constructed. The STS-27 ascent atmospheric data tape was constructed by Marshall Space Flight Center's Earth Science and Applications Division to provide an internally consistent data set for use in post-flight performance assessments.

Jasper, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosols Based on PARASOL and OMI Satellite Observations

Accurate portrayal of the aerosol characteristics is crucial to determine aerosol contribution to the Earth's radiation budget. We employ novel satellite retrievals to make a new measurement-based estimate of the shortwave direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA), both over land and ocean. Global satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth, single-scattering albedo (SSA), and phase function from PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) are used in synergy with OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) SSA. Aerosol information is combined with land-surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function and cloud characteristics from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite products. Eventual gaps in observations are filled with the state-of-the-art global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM2. It is found that our estimate of DREA is largely insensitive to model choice. Radiative transfer calculations show that DREA at top-of-atmosphere is −4.6 +/- 1.5 W/sq m for cloud-free and −2.1 +/- 0.7 W/sq m for all-sky conditions, during year 2006. These fluxes are consistent with, albeit generally less negative over ocean than, former assessments. Unlike previous studies, our estimate is constrained by retrievals of global coverage SSA, which may justify different DREA values. Remarkable consistency is found in comparison with DREA based on CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) and MODIS observations.

Globalsatellite measurements↗
NASA NTRS2017

Overview of SPRITE: Saturn Probe Interior and aTmosphere Explorer Concept

The Saturn PRobe Interior and aTmosphere Explorer (SPRITE) mission concept targets high-priority Planetary Science Decadal Survey science objectives. This mission concept would deliver the SPRITE entry probe into the Saturn atmosphere to obtain in situ measurements of elemental abundances and isotopic ratios, which would help distinguish the role Saturn played in the solar system formation and co-evolution of other planets. An Atmospheric Structure Investigation sensor package on the entry probe would provide in situ measurements of the pressure/temperature and wind structure below the cloud-tops, and a Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer and Tunable Laser Spectrometer suite would determine the composition of Saturn’s atmosphere. The SPRITE mission concept described in this paper uses a solar-powered carrier-relay spacecraft to deliver the battery-powered entry probe to Saturn after a 10-year Venus-Earth-Earth gravity-assist trajectory, and then relays the probe data back to Earth during the carrier-relay spacecraft Saturn flyby. A high-heritage design approach is implemented for the flight elements to minimize technical risk and enable successful return of this high-value science data.

Cuddy, Cavan↗
NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of GEOS-5 Aerosol and CO Distributions Forecast During TC4

The NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) Mission was based out San Jose, Costa Rica during July and August 2007. During TC4 the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) ran twice-daily 0.5 x 0.666 global 5-day forecasts of the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5). This implementation of GEOS-5 contained an aerosol and carbon monoxide (CO) model to provide online forecast tropospheric distributions of dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols and CO for both the planning of flights and for science. Here we provide a description of the aerosol and CO modeling system and give a preliminary evaluation of forecast tracer distributions. Our comparisons to satellite observations of aerosol and CO show qualitatively similar simulated distributions of tracers to those observed. During TC4 copious amounts of dust were observed in the Caribbean. The model generally reproduced the observations of the timing of dust events and the vertical structure in the lower atmosphere. However, the model simulations had too much aerosol at high altitudes relative to airborne Cloud Physics Lidar observations. The results were similar for biomass burning aerosol and CO tracers, where the model showed higher simulated concentrations of these tracers at aircraft flight altitude than observations.

Colarco, Peter R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Atmospheric environment for space shuttle (STS-26) launch

A summary of selected atmospheric conditions observed near Space Shuttle STS-26 launch time on September 29, 1988, at Kennedy Space Center, Florida is given. Values of ambient pressure, temperature, moisture, ground winds, visual observations (cloud), and winds aloft are included. The sequence of pre-launch Jimsphere measured vertical wind profiles is given. The final atmospheric tape, which consists of wind and thermodynamic parameters versus altitude, for STS-26 vehicle ascent has been constructed. The STS-26 ascent atmospheric data tape has been constructed by Marshall Space Flight Center's Earth Science and Applications Division to provide an internally consistent data set for use in post-flight performance assessments.

Jasper, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Venus Flagship Mission Concept: A Decadal Survey Study

More than any other known planet, Venus is essential to our understanding of the evolution and habitability of Earth-size planets throughout the galaxy. We address two critical questions for planetary science: 1) How, if at all, did Venus evolve through a habitable phase? 2) What circumstances affect how volatiles shape habitable worlds? More than any other group, volatile elements have a strong influence on the evolutionary paths of rocky bodies and are critical to understanding solar system evolution. It is clear that Venus experienced a different volatile element history from the Earth and provides the only accessible example of one end-state of habitable Earth-size planets. Venus will allow us to identify the mechanisms that operate together to produce and maintain habitable worlds like our own.The (VFM) concept architecture relies on five collaborative platforms: an Orbiter, Lander, variable-altitude Aerobot and two Small Satellites (SmallSats) delivered via a single launch on a Falcon 9 heavy expendable. The platforms would use multiple instruments to measure the exosphere, atmosphere and surface at multiple scales with high precision and over time. VFM would provide the first measurements of mineralogy and geochemistry of tessera terrain to examine rocks considered to be among the most likely to have formed in a habitable climate regime. Landed, descent, aerial and orbital platforms would work synergistically to measure the chemical composition of the atmosphere including the Aerobot operating for 60 days in the Venus clouds. Loss mechanisms would be constrained by the SmallSats in two key orbits. The baseline payload for VFM includes instruments to make the first measurements of seismicity and remanent magnetism, the first long-lived (60 day) surface platform and the first life detection instrument at Venus to interrogate what could be an inhabited world.The VFM concept directly addresses each of the three Venus Exploration Analysis Group (VEXAG) goals as well as several of the strategic objectives of the 2020 NASA Science Plan, Planetary Science Division, Heliophysics and Astrophysics. The simultaneous, synergistic measurements of the solid body, surface, atmosphere and space environment provided by the VFM would allow us to target the most accessible Earth-size planet in our galaxy, and gain a profound new understanding of the evolution of our solar system and habitable worlds.

Segura, Marcia↗
NASA NTRS2003

When Earth Songs Filled the Void of Space

Before the late 50's we had the planets, our Sun, the stars, galaxies, spectacular clouds of dust and very little else in our universe. There was evidence for a highly tenuous "sea" of dust in interstellar space, but little else. Space was empty above the ionized gases of our upper atmosphere, a little like there was no color in the world before the 40's. The clues were there to think otherwise, however, and in the late 50's and early 60's a few researchers dared to challenge the conventional ideas about space. It was a time of discovery and, with our new ability to fly in space, a time that launched a new science. Today that science makes it possible to literally see some of the plasmas that populate near-Earth space, which are now known to exist everywhere.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

PM Science Working Group Meeting on Spacecraft Maneuvers

The EOS PM Science Working Group met on May 6, 1997, to examine the issue of spacecraft maneuvers. The meeting was held at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and was attended by the Team Leaders of all four instrument science teams with instruments on the PM-1 spacecraft, additional representatives from each of the four teams, the PM Project management, and random others. The meeting was chaired by the PM Project Scientist and open to all. The meeting was called in order to untangle some of the concerns raised over the past several months regarding whether or not the PM-1 spacecraft should undergo spacecraft maneuvers to allow the instruments to obtain deep-space views. Two of the Science Teams, those for the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), had strongly expressed the need for deep-space views in order to calibrate their instruments properly and conveniently. The other two teams, those for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), and the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB), had expressed concerns that the maneuvers involve risks to the instruments and undesired gaps in the data sets.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stereoscopic Retrieval of Smoke Plume Heights and Motion from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging, Using the MISR INteractive eXplorer(MINX)

Airborne particles desert dust, wildfire smoke, volcanic effluent, urban pollution affect Earth's climate as well as air quality and health. They are found in the atmosphere all over the planet, but vary immensely in amount and properties with season and location. Most aerosol particles are injected into the near-surface boundary layer, but some, especially wildfire smoke, desert dust and volcanic ash, can be injected higher into the atmosphere, where they can stay aloft longer, travel farther, produce larger climate effects, and possibly affect human and ecosystem health far downwind. So monitoring aerosol injection height globally can make important contributions to climate science and air quality studies. The Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) is a space borne instrument designed to study Earths clouds, aerosols, and surface. Since late February 2000 it has been retrieving aerosol particle amount and properties, as well as cloud height and wind data, globally, about once per week. The MINX visualization and analysis tool complements the operational MISR data products, enabling users to retrieve heights and winds locally for detailed studies of smoke plumes, at higher spatial resolution and with greater precision than the operational product and other space-based, passive remote sensing techniques. MINX software is being used to provide plume height statistics for climatological studies as well as to investigate the dynamics of individual plumes, and to provide parameterizations for climate modeling.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2017

North Polar Radiative Flux Variability from 2002 Through 2014

NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces the SYN1Deg data product. SYN1deg provides global, 1deg gridded, hourly estimates of Top of Atmosphere (TOA) (CERES observations and calculations) and atmospheric and surface radiative flux (calculations). Examples of 12 year North Polar averages of some variables are shown to the right. Given recent interest in polar science we focus here on TOA and Surface validation of calculated irradiant fluxes. TOA upward longwave irradiance calculations match the CERES observations well both spatially and temporally with correlations remaining strong through PC 6. Compare SYN1Deg Calculations & Meteorological Teleconnections. TOA reflected shortwave irradiance calculations match the CERES observations well both spatially and temporally with correlations remaining string through PC 7. Comparing SYN1Deg calculations to teleconnection patterns requires expanding the area to 30N for EOF analyses. Correlating the Principal Components of various variables to teleconnection time series indicates which variable is most highly correlated with which teleconnection signal. The tables indicate the Pacific North American Oscillation is most correlated to the OLR EOF 1, and the North American Oscillation is correlated most closely to surface LW flux down EOF 1.

Rutan, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS): Final Report of the ASCENDS Ad Hoc Science Definition Team

Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback

Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗