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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999–2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3-6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Winter precipitation changes in California under global warming: Contributions of CO2, uniform SST warming, and SST change patterns

Climate models project a wetting winter over California, distinct from the drying in all other Mediterranean climate regions under warming. Dynamic effect via an eastward extension of the westerly jet stream over the North Pacific is the root cause for the wetting California. Utilizing four sets of prescribed-SST (sea surface temperature) simulations, the relative effects of direct CO2 radiative forcing, uniform SST warming, and SST change pattern are investigated. The wetting winter is dominated by uniform SST warming mainly through its effect on the jet extension. As a fundamental response to the enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the tropics, the jet extension in coupled simulations is well reproduced under uniform SST warming and robust among models. An El Niño-like SST warming pattern has a secondary contribution to the jet extension via atmospheric teleconnection, but with large inter-model spread. Relative to the SST forcing, the direct CO2 radiative effect is negligible.

Dong, Lu↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Breakdown of ENSO's Relationship With Thermocline Depth in the Central-Equatorial Pacific

Recent classification of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into two types, Eastern (EP) and Central (CP) events, has highlighted the importance of the central Pacific. We show here that the local correlation between ENSO subsurface temperatures (T sub ) in the upper 100-m and thermocline depth anomalies breaks down in the central equatorial Pacific, whereas T sub remains well correlated with sea surface height anomalies. This observed difference in the central equatorial Pacific is simulated by almost all climate models. It arises from a vertically slanted Tsub anomaly structure that is unique to the central equatorial Pacific. We show that this feature is an adiabatic response to wind-driving that is even present in a linear dynamic model, as long as the model has enough baroclinic modes to adequately represent the observed vertical complexity. Our findings have implications for better understanding the different importance of thermocline feedback in CP and EP events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Lifecycles by Detection Algorithms: Climatology and Variability

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow filaments of vapor transport that are responsible for most poleward moisture transport outside of the tropics. Many AR detection algorithms have been developed to automatically identify ARs in climate data. The diversity of these algorithms has introduced appreciable uncertainties in quantitative measures of AR properties and thereby impedes the construction of a unified and internally consistent climatology of ARs. This paper compares nine global AR detection algorithms from the perspective of AR lifecycles following the propagation of ARs from origin to termination in the MERRA2 reanalysis over the period 1980–2017. Uncertainties in AR lifecycle characteristics, including event number, lifetime, intensity, and frequency distribution are discussed. Notably, the number of AR events per year in the Northern Hemisphere can vary by a factor of 5 with different algorithms. Although all algorithms show that the maximum AR origin (termination) frequency is located over the western (eastern) portion of ocean basins, significant disagreements appear in regional distribution. Spreads are large in AR lifetime and intensity. Here, the number of landfalling AR events produced by the algorithms can vary from 16 to 80 events per year, although the agreement improves for stronger ARs. By examining the ARs' connections with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find that the overall responses of ARs (such as changes in AR frequency, origin, and landfall activity) to climate variability are consistent among algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Here, inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Lead Times of Warm Water Volumes to ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and western equatorial Pacific WWV (WWV w ) are two important long-lead time El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event precursors. Here, for this work, we utilize the recharge-discharge oscillator framework to obtain the analytical solution of WWV and WWV w lead times to ENSO sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Both WWV and WWVw lead times show a strong dependence on the inherent ENSO periodicity, whereas WWV lead time is further modulated by the air-sea coupling strength and ENSO SST spatial pattern. The derived solution is able to explain observed decadal variations in lead times of WWV to SST in terms of variations in ENSO periodicity and air-sea coupling strength.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting Climate Teleconnections With Granger Causality

Abstract Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.

Silva, Filipi N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?

Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model's ability to capture observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package (Planton et al., 2021). Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics of ENSO Phase–Locking and Its Biases in Climate Models

Here, the contributions of different oceanic feedbacks to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking are examined by deriving ENSO dynamics based on the recharge-discharge framework. In observations, the significant winter preference of the ENSO peak is determined by a strong seasonal modulation of SST growth rate, which is controlled by the zonal advective and thermodynamic feedbacks. However, the majority of climate models fail to simulate ENSO phase-locking because the contribution of zonal advective feedback to the seasonal modulation of the SST growth rate is much smaller compared to observations. The weak annual cycle of the SST-current coupling coefficient and small annual mean of the negative climatological zonal SST gradient are two factors contributing to the weak-biased seasonality of zonal advective feedback. Further analysis shows that the Niño3.4 SSTA has better phase-locking performance than Niño3 SSTA in the climate models due to the better simulation of zonal advection feedback in the Niño3.4 region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-Two-Day and Diurnal Cloud Variation Timescales over Convectively Active Regions

Climatological features of the cloud variability on quasi-two-day (Q2D) and diurnal cycle (DC) timescales are investigated by utilizing the high-resolution satellite infrared brightness temperature (IRBT) observations from January 1998 to December 2019. A distinct land-sea contrast between the distributions of Q2D and DC signals is evident. Diurnally driven cloud activity mainly occurs over land and mountainous regions, and the Q2D timescale is more prominent over tropical ocean basins and land where organized convection is usually observed, e.g., Congo and Amazon Rainforests, the U.S. and subtropical South America during warm seasons. The long-term relationship between the Q2D variability and sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the clouds are more active on Q2D timescales over higher SST environments. The Q2D variability correlates well with both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from 1998 to 2019. The cloud variability associated with a range of convective available potential energy (CAPE) values is analyzed. The result over land shows that increased Q2D cloud variability emerges with higher CAPE, suggesting the coincidence of Q2D and organized convection, particularly given that this effect is strongest over regions with frequent mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) around the world. The cloud variability and the Q2D timescale analyses provide an alternative perspective to understand the global features of mesoscale convective systems. Overall, this study objectively examines the global variability of convective timescales related to the diurnal cycle and longer-lived convective systems to provide a greater understanding of how the global convection population varies in space and time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Uncertainty and Modes of Variability for Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers

Abstract Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are driven by their synoptic environments and lead to profound and varying impacts along the coastlines and over the continent. The definition and detection of ARs over Antarctica accounts for large uncertainty in AR metrics, and consequently, impacts quantification. We find that Antarctic‐specific detection tools consistently capture the AR footprint inland over ice sheets, whereas most global detection tools do not. Large‐scale synoptic environments and associated ARs, however, are broadly consistent across detection tools. Using data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and global reanalyses, we quantify the uncertainty in Antarctic AR metrics and evaluate large‐scale environments in the context of decadal and interannual modes of variability. The Antarctic western hemisphere has stronger connections to both decadal and interannual modes of variability compared to East Antarctica, and the Indian Ocean Dipole’s influence on Antarctic ARs is stronger while in phase with El Nino Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Simulations of Atmospheric River Climatology and Variability in High-Resolution CESM

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can trigger extreme rainfall and snowfall events, causing high risk of flooding. Meanwhile, they are sometimes responsible for the occurrence and break of drought events. So, it is of great importance for weather and climate forecast models to accurately represent ARs. Studies have shown that AR variability is linked to various climate modes, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific-North America pattern, providing the potential for predicting ARs at subseasonal-to-decadal timescales. In this study, we examine the impact of climate model resolution on AR simulations and their relationship with major climate modes by comparing a pair of high-resolution and a low-resolution (LR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations against the observations. The results reveal major deficiencies in LR that include underestimated climatological AR strength and associated precipitation, and inaccurate representations of ARs relationships with climate modes. Significant improvements are observed by increasing CESM horizontal resolution, suggesting a path for more accurate prediction of ARs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate Models

Understanding and forecasting Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) strongly rely on climate model simulations. Using a Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) diagnostic approach, we reveal Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models have significant challenges in reproducing the spatial structure and dominant mechanisms of TPDV. Specifically, while the models' ensemble mean pattern of TPDV resembles that of observations, the spread across models is very large and most models show significant differences from observations. In observations, removing the coupling between extratropics and tropics reduces TPDV by ~60%–70%, and removing the tropical thermocline variability makes the central tropical Pacific a key center of action for TPDV and El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. These characteristics are only confirmed in a subset of models. Differences between observations and simulations are outside the range of natural internal TPDV noise and pose important questions regarding our ability to model the impacts of natural internal low-frequency variability superimposed on long-term climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗