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At least 253 records · Page 14

Trends and meteorological drivers of extreme daily reservoir evaporation events in the western United States

Extreme daily evaporation from reservoir surfaces can lead to significant short-term water losses, affecting water quality, water supply, and reservoir operation strategies. Historical trends in daily reservoir evaporation events have eluded the scientific and operational communities, largely due to a lack of long-term, consistent data record. This study quantifies trends in extreme daily reservoir evaporation events at 165 major reservoirs located in the western U.S. Here, we use the place-based energy balance and aerodynamic Daily Lake Evaporation Model (DLEM) driven by multiple meteorological data products (RTMA, gridMET, Daymet) to estimate daily evaporation rates at these reservoirs from 1981 to 2022. The results—while are based on different meteorological forcing datasets—consistently indicate that the California, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande hydrologic regions are more prone to higher daily evaporation extremes. Compared to the rest of western U.S, these three regions also experience a more pronounced increasing trend in the annual maximum daily evaporation rate, at about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 during 1981-2022. The results show that heat and dryness are the main drivers to the increasing trend of extreme evaporation, while extreme wind speed is the primary contributor to exceptionally high daily evaporation events across all regions. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the arid Lower Colorado region, but less significant in the cold and humid Pacific Northwest region. We also find that the correlation between extreme wind speed and extreme evaporation degrades as the time scale increases from daily, to monthly and seasonal. Our findings have strong implications for the pattern and distribution of extreme evaporation events at the western U.S. reservoirs, and illustrate how various drivers influence extreme evaporation across different time scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hole-Trapping-Induced Stabilization of Ni 4+ in SrNiO 3 /LaFeO 3 Superlattices

Creating new functionality in materials containing transition metals is predicated on our ability to control the associated charge states. For a given metal, forming lower oxidation states is typically easier than generating higher values, and there is an upper limit on valence that is not exceeded under normal conditions. Here we demonstrate that we can exceed the normal upper limit of 3+ for Ni and Fe via synthesis of (SrNiO 3 )m/(LaFeO 3 )n superlattices by tuning n and m. The Goldschmidt tolerance constraints are lifted and SrNi 4+ O 3 with holes on adjacent O anions can be stabilized as a perovskite at the single unit cell level (m = 1). Spectroscopy reveals that the n = 1 superlattice contains Ni 3+ and Fe 4+ , whereas Ni 4+ and Fe 3+ are observed in the n = 5 superlattice. Here, our results show that the B-site cation valences can be tuned by controlling the magnitude of the FeO6 octahedral rotations which in turn drive the energy balance between Ni 3+ /Fe 4+ and Ni 4+ /Fe 3+ , thus controlling emergent electrical properties such as the band alignment and resulting hole confinement. We suggest that this approach may be generally useful for synthesizing novel, metastable layered structures with new functionalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design, scaling and cost evaluations of circulating fluidized-bed systems for biomass pyrolysis

To generate updated and transparent capital cost estimates for biomass fast pyrolysis equipment, refinery fluidized catalytic cracking design and sizing principles are examined and extended to pyrolysis of woody biomass. Capital costs for the sized equipment are estimated with process-industry software. A one-dimensional flow simulation with pyrolysis kinetics is leveraged to validate the fluidization conditions and thermal energy balance. After successful sizing and a system cost estimate of $\$$2.8 M (in 2016 US$\$$) at the biorefinery scale of 1000 metric tons per day (MTD), these methods were exercised for even smaller equipment at the distributed pyrolysis scale with modifications to the process design constraints, and not directly comparable with the 1000 MTD case, arriving at capital cost estimates of $\$$1.2 M for a 500 ton/day system and $\$$0.9 M for a 200 ton/day system. Here in this work, It is noted that this work only estimates purchased equipment costs at the ±50% accuracy level; there are significant other custom factors applicable to each installation based on location, maturity, scale, complexities during installation, engineering and licensing costs, etc. that need to be added on to these estimates to derive investment costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Simulating competition in the US bioeconomy to produce hard‐to‐electrify transportation fuels using limited biomass resources

This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno-economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost-optimized scenarios, while low-carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas-minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Hydrogen Bonding Optimizes Singlet Fission in Carboxylic Acid Functionalized Anthradithiophene Films

The rate of singlet fission, the process of generating two triplet excitons with photoexcitation of one singlet exciton, depends on a combination of singlet/triplet energy balance and intermolecular coupling. In this work, we perform carboxylic acid functionalization of anthradithiophene (ADT) derivatives that result in hydrogen bonds that drive molecular orientation and strong electronic coupling of polycrystalline ADT thin films, leading to ultrafast singlet fission without significant enthalpic driving force. ADT with a single carboxylic acid group exhibits weak intermolecular coupling and slow and inefficient singlet fission, much like the parent ADT, and substitution of different alkylsilyl solubilizing groups has little effect. However, the addition of two carboxylic acid groups on either end of the long axis favors significant coupling and crystallinity in as-deposited thin films that increase the effective singlet fission rate by roughly three orders of magnitude. The properties of the triplet pair, particularly its propensity to form long-lived independent triplets, are also influenced by the degree of long-range intermolecular coupling. The enhancement of intermolecular coupling specific to singlet fission using the ubiquitous cyclic hydrogen bonding motif could impact triplet pair utilization schemes in a variety of contexts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Implementation and verification of a user-defined element (UEL) for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in saturated geological media

Efficient and accurate modeling of the coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in various rock formations is indispensable for designing energy geo-structures such as underground repositories for high-level nuclear wastes. Here, this work focuses on developing and verifying an implicit finite element solver for generic coupled THMC problems in geological settings. Starting from the mass, momentum, and energy balance laws, a specialized set of governing equations and a thermoporoelastic constitutive model is derived. This system is then solved by an implicit finite element (FE) scheme. Specifically, the residuals and the Jacobians are scripted in a user-defined element (UEL) subroutine which is then combined with the general-purpose FE software Abaqus Standard to solve initial-boundary value problems. Considering the complexity of the system, the UEL development follows a stepwise manner by first solving the coupled hydraulic-mechanical (HM) and thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) equations before moving on to the full THMC problem. Each implementation step consists of at least one verification test by comparing computed results with closed-form analytical solutions to ensure that the various coupling effects are correctly realized. To demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm and to validate the UEL, a three-dimensional case study is performed with reference to the in-situ heating test of ATLAS at Belgium in 1980s. A hypothetical radionuclide leakage event is then simulated by activating the chemical-concentration degree of freedom and prescribing a constant high concentration at the heater's surface. The model predicts a limited contaminated regime after six years considering both diffusion and advection effects on species transport.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO<:sub>2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of vapor-liquid interactions in condensing ejectors

Ejectors are compact mechanical devices that utilize the expansion of a high-pressure primary fluid to entrain and compress a low-pressure secondary fluid by means of momentum transfer between the two streams of fluid. Condensing ejectors feature both momentum and heat transfer through the interaction between the vapor and liquid streams. The goal of this paper is to develop and validate a one-dimensional slug flow model to simulate the vapor–liquid interactions in two types of condensing ejectors – one with primary liquid and secondary vapor flows (Type I), and the other with primary vapor and secondary liquid flows (Type II). Control volume analysis of the mass, momentum, and energy balance in each phase and across the interface was conducted for the ejectors. The slug flow models for both types of ejectors are validated with published results in the literature. The friction coefficient on the inner wall of the ejectors and the interfacial heat transfer coefficient are identified as controlling parameters for the ejector performance in terms of pressure and temperature distributions along the axis. The detailed parametric study shows that the liquid inlet velocity and mixing tube diameter have a significant impact on the performance of the Type I ejectors, and the performance of the Type II ejectors is mainly controlled by the secondary liquid flow inlet temperature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evapotranspiration of advanced perennial bioenergy grasses produced on marginal land in the U.S. Midwest

The production of dedicated energy crops for biofuel and co-products can help develop a sustainable and viable bioeconomy under a changing climate. The co-production of perennial bioenergy and commodity crops in an agricultural landscape has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide numerous ecosystem services. However, as production of advanced, higher-yielding cultivars occurs, their impact on water resources needs to be considered. Estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) of perennial grasses compared to commodity crops are not always consistent in the literature. In this study, ET was estimated using an energy-balance model with Landsat satellite imagery and ground-based weather data to compare the large-scale production of advanced switchgrass cultivars (‘Independence’, ‘Liberty’, and ‘Carthage’), predecessor cultivars (‘Shawnee’ and ‘Sunburst’), and other perennial grasses (big bluestem and a low-diversity mixture) to corn grown continuously on marginal soils in the U.S. Midwest. Results showed significant differences in ET between corn and perennial grass treatments at four of the five field sites. However, differences between crop treatments were not consistent across sites, nor were the differences between advanced and predecessor switchgrass varieties. Production year played a large role in daily and cumulative ET across all sites. Differences in crop biomass yield between establishment and post-establishment years may contribute to these interannual differences. Site and interannual variations in precipitation and temperature may also be major contributing factors. Overall, the results of this study indicate that differences in ET between perennial bioenergy grasses and corn are likely dependent upon location of production and weather conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Machine learning for surrogate process models of bioproduction pathways

Technoeconomic analysis and life-cycle assessment are critical to guiding and prioritizing bench-scale experiments and to evaluating economic and environmental performance of biofuel or biochemical production processes at scale. Traditionally, commercial process simulation tools have been used to develop detailed models for these purposes. However, developing and running such models can be costly and computationally intensive, which limits the degree to which they can be shared and reproduced in the broader research community. This study evaluates the potential of an automated machine learning approach to develop surrogate models based on conventional process simulation models. The analysis focuses on several high-value biofuels and bioproducts for which pathways of production from biomass feedstocks have been well-established. The results demonstrate that surrogate models can be an accurate and effective tool for approximating the cost, mass and energy balance outputs of more complex process simulations at a fraction of the computational expense.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Expanding the horizon of bio-naphtha beyond gasoline blend: property characterization and conversion opportunity assessment through technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses

Bio-naphtha, a common by-product of biorefineries, is expected to experience substantial growth in supply due to increasing demands for renewable diesel and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). However, demand for bio-naphtha itself as a gasoline blendstock is limited because of the electrification of light-duty vehicles. This work investigated valorization opportunities for bio-naphtha from catalytic fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathways. These opportunities include producing polymer-grade olefin via steam cracking, SAF via steam cracking followed by olefin oligomerization, and renewable aromatics benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) and hydrogen via catalytic reforming. Process models were developed in Aspen Plus V14 and Aspen HYSYS V14 to calculate the mass and energy balances for each conversion step. Technoeconomic assessment and life-cycle analysis were conducted to evaluate the minimum fuel/product selling price, conversion cost, and life-cycle CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction. Technoeconomic assessment results suggest a minimum fuel/product selling price as low as $1.9/kg of olefins, $6.30/gal of gasoline-equivalent SAF, and $1.2/kg of BTX without any incentives. For all pathways, these prices are dominated by bio-naphtha feedstock costs, which account for at least 76% of the total cost. Compared with petroleum baselines, bio-naphtha-derived SAF, olefins, and BTX can achieve significant CO2e emission reductions from the use of renewable carbon resources. The results of life-cycle analysis and subsequent technoeconomic assessment, incorporating carbon credits, indicate the economic viability of using bio-naphtha for polymer-grade olefin and BTX production, with product costs comparable to market prices.

Xu, Shuang↗

Topology optimization of compliant mechanisms under transient thermal conditions

This work considers multi-material topology optimization of compliant mechanisms under transient thermal and quasi-static mechanical conditions wherein thermally actuated devices are optimized for different operating conditions. The materials are modeled using finite strain thermo-hyperelasticity and a two way coupling between the energy balance and equilibrium equations is investigated. The design updates are generated from the gradient-based method of moving asymptotes optimizer and the sensitivities are computed using the time dependent adjoint sensitivity analysis. Results show the impact of designing for short versus long actuation times.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A simple and practical process modeling methodology for pressure swing adsorption

Although many dynamic models exist for the design and simulation of pressure swing adsorption (PSA) processes, these models involve the solution of a complex system of coupled partial differential equations. Process engineers need a simple, practical, and yet robust short-cut model that helps decide whether to implement a PSA system in a process flowsheet. This work presents a “virtual” moving bed modeling methodology that considers only mass and energy balances and adsorption isotherms to describe the cyclic steady state behavior of PSA systems. Similar to tray efficiencies in distillation calculations, adsorption efficiencies are further introduced to account for system “non-ideality.” Finally, a lab-scale air separation system is used to illustrate the application of this modeling methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A review of black carbon in snow and ice and its impact on the cryosphere

Black carbon (BC) has emerged as an important short-lived climate forcer. Due to its light absorption properties, BC can darken the snow/ice surface, affect the energy balance, and further lead to acceleration of the cryospheric melting. By reviewing the recent published literatures, we present an overview of the historical changes, spatial distribution of BC in snow/ice, and how these changes are related to the melting of the cryosphere (e.g., glaciers, snow cover, and sea ice). Ice core records show an abrupt increase of BC concentrations that began in the 1850s and continued throughout the 20th century, which is consistent with an increase in BC emissions owing to industrialization. A decrease in the amount of BC since 1970s in Arctic and European ice cores has been partially attributed to the Clean Air Act. However, in the Himalayas, BC records show a continuous increase during this period. BC concentrations in snow and ice in the mid-latitude regions are one to two orders of magnitude higher than those in the polar regions. In particular, BC concentrations in aged snow and granular ice in ablation areas of mountain glaciers are one to three orders of magnitude higher than those in fresh snow or snowpits in the glacier accumulation areas due to BC accumulation during melting season. BC in the surface snow/ice is responsible for about 20% of the albedo reduction in the Tibetan Plateau during glacier melt season. Globally, observations and modeling results indicate that radiative forcing (RF) induced by BC in snow and ice is highest in the mid-latitudes, ranging from several W m–2 in fresh snow to hundreds of W m–2 in aged snow and granular ice in glacier ablation areas. The large BC-in-snow RF and associated snow albedo feedback lead to an acceleration in the total glacier melt (approximately 20%) and/or a reduction in the duration of the snow cover by several days, resulting in an increase of glacier discharge. Given our limited understanding of the role of BC in cryospheric melting, it is important to synthesize the existing research on the multi-scale processes related to BC in snow and ice to identify the gaps in our understanding of these processes and to propose a path forward to improve the quality of our observations of the aforementioned phenomena to fill these gaps.

Kang, Shichang↗

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗

Regulation of the central safety factor and normalized beta under low NBI torque in DIII-D

An algorithm has been designed to simultaneously control the central safety factor (q 0 ) and normalized beta (β N ) while ensuring near-zero torque from the neutral beam injection in DIII-D. Feedback control of q 0 and β N in tokamaks can be beneficial due to the close relationship that these variables have with plasma performance and magneto-hydrodynamic stability. In addition, low neutral-beam-torque conditions are of special interest in present devices because future burning-plasma tokamaks such as ITER will most likely operate at very low plasma rotation. The control synthesis of the algorithm presented in this work is based on a linearized, one-dimensional (1D) model of the current-profile dynamics coupled with a zero-dimensional (0D) plasma-energy balance. The actuators considered are neutral beam injection and electron-cyclotron heating and current drive, and discrete logic determines the neutral-beam injection powers that deliver near-zero torque. Here, the algorithm has been tested in nonlinear, 1D simulations using COTSIM (Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator) and in DIII-D experiments, demonstrating satisfactory performance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗