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General Purpose Data-Driven System Monitoring for Space Operations

Modern space propulsion and exploration system designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems using traditional methods is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grows. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or for analysis of archived events. Ongoing and developing IMS space operations applications include International Space Station flight control, satellite vehicle system health management, launch vehicle ground operations, and fleet supportability. As a common thread of discussion this paper will employ the evolution of the IMS data-driven technique as related to several Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) elements. Thematically, the projects listed will be used as case studies. The maturation of IMS via projects where it has been deployed, or is currently being integrated to aid in fault detection will be described. The paper will also explain how IMS can be used to complement a suite of other ISHM tools, providing initial fault detection support for diagnosis and recovery.

Satellites

A SIMULINK Environment for Flight Dynamics and Control Analysis - Application to the DHC-2 'Beaver', Part 1. Implementation of a Model Library in SIMULINK

The design of advanced Automatic Aircraft Control Systems (AACS's) can be improved upon considerably if the designer can access all models and tools required for control system design and analysis through a graphical user-interface, from within one software environment. This MSc-thesis presents the first step in the development of such an environment, which is currently being done at the Section for Stability and Control of Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. The environment is implemented within the commercially available software package MATLAB/SIMULINK. The report consists of two parts. Part I gives a detailed description of the AACS design environment. The heart of this environment is formed by the SIMULINK implementation of a nonlinear aircraft model in block-diagram format. The model has been worked out for the old laboratory aircraft of the Faculty, the De Havilland DHC-2 'Beaver', but due to its modular structure, it can easily be adapted for other aircraft. Part I also describes MATLAB programs which can be applied for finding steady-state trimmed-flight conditions and for linearization of the aircraft model, and it shows how the built-in simulation routines of SIMULINK have been used for open-loop analysis of the aircraft dynamics. Apart from the implementation of the models and tools, a thorough treatment of the theoretical backgrounds is presented. Part II of this report presents a part of an autopilot design process for the 'Beaver' aircraft, which clearly demonstrates the power and flexibility of the AACS design environment from part I. Evaluations of all longitudinal and lateral control laws by means of nonlinear simulations are treated in detail. The AACS design environment from part I proved to be a very useful tool for designing the control laws of the 'Beaver' autopilot within a very tight time-schedule. The autopilot design process itself will be used as a guideline for future AACS research at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. Flight tests of the 'Beaver' autopilot, done after evaluating the control laws in the SIMULINK package, proved to be quite successful. In the future, the AACS design package will evolve into a standardized, integrated design environment which can be applied to virtually any type of aircraft. The AACS design cycle will be shortened further by developing tools for automatically porting control laws from the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment to a piloted real-time flight simulator and the Flight Control Computers of the aircraft.

Aircraft Modelling

Analytical Model for Atomic Relaxation in Twisted Moiré Materials

By virtue of being atomically thin, the electronic properties of heterostructures built from two-dimensional materials are strongly influenced by atomic relaxation. The atomic layers behave as flexible membranes rather than rigid crystals. Here we develop an analytical theory of lattice relaxation in twisted moiré materials. We obtain analytical results for the lattice displacements and corresponding pseudo gauge fields, as a function of twist angle. We benchmark our results for twisted bilayer graphene and twisted WSe 2 bilayers using large-scale molecular dynamics simulations. Our single-parameter theory is valid in graphene bilayers for twist angles 𝜃 ≳ 0.7°, and in twisted WSe 2 for 𝜃 ≳ 1.6°. Furthermore, we also investigate how relaxation alters the electronic structure in twisted bilayer graphene, providing a simple extension to the continuum model to account for lattice relaxation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Echo state network for coarsening dynamics of charge density waves

An echo state network (ESN) is a type of reservoir computer that uses a recurrent neural network with a sparsely connected hidden layer. Compared with other recurrent neural networks, one great advantage of ESN is the simplicity of its training process. Yet, despite the seemingly restricted learnable parameters, ESN has been shown to successfully capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of complex patterns. Here we build an ESN to model the coarsening dynamics of charge-density waves (CDWs) in a semiclassical Holstein model, which exhibits a checkerboard electron density modulation at half-filling stabilized by a commensurate lattice distortion. The inputs to the ESN are local CDW order parameters in a finite neighborhood centered around a given site, while the output is the predicted CDW order of the center site at the next time step. Special care is taken in the design of couplings between hidden layer and input nodes to ensure lattice symmetries are properly incorporated into the ESN model. Since the model predictions depend only on CDW configurations of a finite domain, the ESN is scalable and transferrable in the sense that a model trained on dataset from a small system can be directly applied to dynamical simulations on larger lattices. Furthermore, our work opens avenues for efficient dynamical modeling of pattern formations in functional electron materials.

2-dimensional systems

A Parametric Battery Model for the Conceptual Design of Electric Aircraft

Electric aircraft conceptual designs usually have an assumed specific power and specific energy for the aircraft’s energy storage system that dictates the total capacity and the peak power available. The specific energy and power are inherently linked to the state-of-charge and discharge rate from which they were derived; therefore, they will not directly correspond to the diverse circumstances encountered in various aircraft missions and flight segments. These parameters turn the battery system into a black box, disregard potential electrical restrictions, and disallow the aircraft and battery to be optimized as a system. Peering into this box, this study highlights the importance of incorporating a parametric battery model into the conceptual design workflow by splitting high-level terms such as power into voltage and current and investigating their variability during the discharge process. Through the modeling of these more detailed parameters, this methodology shows the feasibility of using low states-of-charge for contingency operations, including the end of the reserve mission, expanding the amount of usable capacity for electric aircraft. Stark differences in aircraft capabilities can arise between varying fidelity battery models due to late-mission, high-power flight operations. This parametric battery model effectively captures these differences by evaluating the limitations that arise within the individual battery cells and the aircraft powertrain. This paper shows that the unusable charge of a battery is set by the balked landing power requirement and can realistically range from 5% to 44% based on assumptions. This sets the analog to unusable fuel capacity in aircraft with liquid fuel systems. Needing only aircraft- and mission-level inputs and only seconds of run time, this model is a prime fit for the fast, accurate exploration of the electric aircraft conceptual design space.

Battery

VII. Plasma Effects

Radio communication with space probes requires sending signals through the Earth's ionosphere and usually the solar wind. During planetary flybys, the signal may also pass through the ionosphere of another planet. These ionized media can perturb the radio signal in a variety of ways. Examples of these perturbations are variations in the electrical length between the spacecraft and the ground station, Faraday rotation of linearly polarized signals, amplitude and phase scintillations, and spectral and angular broadening. These plasma effects can have undesirable influences on telemetry performance and thus need to be understood from a communications engineering viewpoint. The plasma effects are, however, useful from a scientific viewpoint, since the effects on the communications link can often be inverted to estimate the physical conditions in the plasma.

John W Armstrong

Integrated Neutronics Modeling for Inertial Fusion Energy Systems: Development and Application to LD-FIRST

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is proposing a new Laser Driven Fusion Integration Research and Science Test Facility (LD-FIRST) with the goal of providing an experimental testbed for future Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) systems. However, IFE systems require detailed and accurate multiphysics modeling to quantify material damage, thermal loading, and tritium breeding within complex chamber environments. This article presents the first step in an integrated multiphysics framework that couples meshed CAD-based geometry within Monte Carlo neutronic simulations to enable high-fidelity analysis of IFE chamber concepts, with future coupling to external codes. The neutronics workflow utilizes OpenMC and its third-party capability to use CAD-based geometries through DAGMC and tally on unstructured meshes with Libmesh to evaluate neutron transport behavior, geometric fidelity, and material performance under reactor-relevant conditions. The use of tailored tallies on unstructured meshes in this framework allows direct transfer without interpolating to CFD simulation tools. Two IFE chambers were evaluated, both conceived by LLNL: HYLIFE-II and Laser IFE (LIFE). This work produced high-fidelity conformal surface and volumetric meshes of the HYLIFE-II and LIFE chambers with mapped spatial insight into material damage, thermal loading, and tritium breeding. The HYLIFE-II model was built utilizing available resources and used as a test case to verify that the neutronics framework can handle complex geometries. The LIFE chamber CAD was provided by LLNL and was the main focus of this work. This work analyzes multiple ternary alloy breeding materials for the LIFE chamber, across different 6 Li enrichments to produce data relevant to the LD-FIRST project. This work also investigates the level of model fidelity for the LIFE chamber, and results show that inclusion of detailed first wall and coolant structures increased the predicted tritium breeding ratio (TBR) by ~30%, highlighting the sensitivity of tritium breeding and the need for a high-fidelity simulation framework for IFE chambers. These developments provide a scalable toolset for the design and optimization of next-generation IFE chambers, forming a solid foundation for future coupled multiphysics analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

Room temperature vulcanizing (RTV) silicone is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between heatshield tiles in numerous entry missions. Its propensity to intumesce, or swell upon exposure to heat, is a well-known effect that needs to be carefully quantified during design. At tile interfaces of charring ablators, intumescence, combined with differential recession, could cause the gap filler to protrude past the ablator outer mold line, forming a “fence”. Fencing can in turn cause transition to turbulence of the flow wetting the heat shield, leading to augmented surface heating. Recent experiments conducted at the Plasmatron X facility, the high enthalpy wind tunnel of the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies, have shown prominent fencing of RTV gap fillers in PICA, under both nitrogen and air plasmas. Similar observations are well known in the arcjet literature. Further experiments under controlled environment, performed using in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), have shown heating rate-dependent swelling and shrinkage of RTV during pyrolysis. To simulate RTV intumescence, a novel model was introduced in the Porous Materials Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM, PATO, to account for pore-pressure buildup within both closed- and open-pores. The governing equation for the thermo-poro-mechanical response were developed, assuming linear elasticity for the charring silicone. A new multi-pyrolysis model that tracks non-monotonic advancement of material properties with pyrolysis was proposed. This model addresses the limitations of state-of-the-art ablator models to capture the different stages of thermal degradation and coupled thermomechanics. Swelling of RTV was simulated using the new thermo-poro-mechanical model and compared against in situ micro-CT data. Results showed good agreement in intumescence height and temperature profiles at all heating rates, indicating that the key factor contributing to RTV swelling is the internal pressure build-up within closed- and open-pores. As RTV is cured into a soft (rubbery) compound with low-porosity and permeability, initial temperature increase and pyrolysis gas production cause a significant increase of internal pressure, causing a pronounced volume growth. As thermal degradation progresses, rigidization of the silicone occurs due to char hardening which counteract volume shrinkage after gas pressure relief. Overall, our model shows that accounting for changes in properties such porosity, permeability and key thermomechanical coefficients is crucial for capturing the RTV volume change during ablation and enable a predictive capability for heatshield tile interface response. A plan for future calibration of thermomechanical properties evolution during degradation is discussed, as a key next step to close the new model.

RTV

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

Room temperature vulcanizing (RTV) silicone is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between heatshield tiles in numerous entry missions. Its propensity to intumesce, or swell upon exposure to heat, is a well-known effect that needs to be carefully quantified during design. At tile interfaces of charring ablators, intumescence, combined with differential recession, could cause the gap filler to protrude past the ablator outer mold line, forming a “fence”. Fencing can in turn cause transition to turbulence of the flow wetting the heat shield, leading to augmented surface heating. Recent experiments conducted at the Plasmatron X facility, the high enthalpy wind tunnel of the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies, have shown prominent fencing of RTV gap fillers in PICA, under both nitrogen and air plasmas. Similar observations are well known in the arcjet literature. Further experiments under controlled environment, performed using in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), have shown heating rate-dependent swelling and shrinkage of RTV during pyrolysis. To simulate RTV intumescence, a novel model was introduced in the Porous Materials Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM, PATO, to account for pore-pressure buildup within both closed- and open-pores. The governing equation for the thermo-poro-mechanical response were developed, assuming linear elasticity for the charring silicone. A new multi-pyrolysis model that tracks non-monotonic advancement of material properties with pyrolysis was proposed. This model addresses the limitations of state-of-the-art ablator models to capture the different stages of thermal degradation and coupled thermomechanics. Swelling of RTV was simulated using the new thermo-poro-mechanical model and compared against in situ micro-CT data. Results showed good agreement in intumescence height and temperature profiles at all heating rates, indicating that the key factor contributing to RTV swelling is the internal pressure build-up within closed- and open-pores. As RTV is cured into a soft (rubbery) compound with low-porosity and permeability, initial temperature increase and pyrolysis gas production cause a significant increase of internal pressure, causing a pronounced volume growth. As thermal degradation progresses, rigidization of the silicone occurs due to char hardening which counteract volume shrinkage after gas pressure relief. Overall, our model shows that accounting for changes in properties such porosity, permeability and key thermomechanical coefficients is crucial for capturing the RTV volume change during ablation and enable a predictive capability for heatshield tile interface response. A plan for future calibration of thermomechanical properties evolution during degradation is discussed, as a key next step to close the new model.

silicone intumescence

Strong Thermoset Regolith UV-Curable Composite Technology (STRUCT) Overview

Future lunar surface missions require construction materials that can be manufactured in situ using lo-cal resources while operating under extreme environmental conditions. Many Lunar material demands can be solved solely with regolith by compacting or sintering. And yet past Lunar missions rely on polymeric materials, and sustained Lunar missions must reduce Earth-supplied polymers dependence. Dual-cure (Ultraviolet (UV) and thermal) polymer-regolith composites offer a promising pathway by leveraging solar UV radiation, moderate thermal in-put, and regolith. Mission mass limits, power availability and energy constraints on the lunar surface further motivate low-energy processing and curing strategies for surface construction materials. The Strong Thermoset Regolith UV-Curable Composite Technology (STRUCT) project has successfully synthesized and demonstrated dual-cure photopolymer resins derivable from in-situ resources [3]. Morphological, thermal, and mechanical characterization show that the newly formulated UV curable resin systems integrates well with lunar regolith simulants. Processing and chemistry changes, and computational analysis advanced the composite design. X-ray CT scanned and computational analysis demonstrate that resin, regolith and additives are well incorporated. The large fraction of regolith, 95% by mass, large char yield (82% mass), low thermal conductivity (0.26 W/m/K), confirm this material as a promising high-performance thermal and structural material.

thermal conductivity

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods

High-Order Methods in NASA’s Next Generation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Tools

The missions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) routinely produce unique requirements and challenges for development and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods. NASA presently embodies four distinct Mission Directorates: Aeronautics Research, Exploration Systems, Science, and Space Operations. These missions generate requirements for systems that operate in a wide variety of environments. They range from the high-speed flight of aerodynamically optimized vehicles operating in the earth’s atmosphere to spacecraft designed for missions that don’t favor aerodynamic optimization, some operating in the atmosphere of planets and planetary moons such as Mars and Venus or Saturn’s moon Titan. Systems supporting these vehicles, such as rocket and jet propulsion, reaction control systems, fluid and thermal transfer systems, etc. can also generate their own unique set of flow phenomena that challenge today’s CFD methodology. Through the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), NASA annually conducts state-of-the-discipline assessments in fifteen distinct engineering disciplines. These assessments are performed by the NASA Technical Fellows that lead Technical Discipline Teams (TDT) of recognized experts in these fifteen areas. In the Aerosciences discipline, three topics have been identified as the top challenges for the discipline: aero-plume interaction prediction, unsteady separated flows, and aerothermodynamic prediction. These challenge areas are defined by the Agency’s high-risk projects and problems on which the NESC is requested to perform independent testing, analysis, and assessments. When viewed as a whole, these tests, analyses, and assessments provide a clear view of the recurring technical challenges facing Agency engineers and researchers and can be used to guide future research and technology development. The present state-of-the-art in the application of CFD at NASA is the use of Reynolds-Averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solvers, primarily executed in a steady-state mode of operation. In isolated cases, Unsteady RANS (URANS) solvers have been employed when steady RANS solutions produce poorly converging or oscillating results or in cases, such as aeroelastic analysis, which require unsteady aerodynamic simulation. For most traditional external and internal aerodynamic flows, structured overset grids or unstructured grids are employed to minimize geometric modeling and grid generation times. Grid adaptation, primarily as a series of coarse-grain intermediate processing steps is also seeing use on particularly complex flow problems and configurations. In the case of aerothermodynamic flows, engineers have been forced to continue to employ structured grid techniques as the present unstructured grid methodology has proven inadequate in the prediction of surface heating. In the area of aero-plume interaction modeling, two-gas, frozen chemistry simulation is generally the state-of-the- art, with some production solvers capable of predicting flows with only a single gas component. Prediction of flows falling into the afore-mentioned top Aerosciences technical challenges have severely stressed the present state-of-the-art in CFD prediction and for some problems, such as unsteady separated flows and aero-plume interaction cases, engineers have begun employing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Hybrid RANS/LES techniques. In some isolated aero-propulsion interaction cases, chemically reacting flow simulations have been applied. These methods are highly evolutionary and engineers have little experience in their application, so they cannot be heavily relied upon in today’s application environment. Therefore, this leads one to muse over which numerical technologies will be included in the CFD tools that will be employed 30 years in the future. This presentation will describe specific technical problems that have stressed NASA’s traditional CFD methods to their breaking point and will link these issues to the Agency’s top Aerosciences technical challenges. The discussion will then shift to the characteristics of future CFD solvers that will be required to attack these challenges and how these characteristics differ from the present state-of-the- art. High-order methods certainly appear to have a place in the development of future CFD tools and some of the physical characteristics of our most challenging problems suggest that high-order methods are the only way to effectively solve them. But there are some relatively severe implementation issues that face these methods, particularly in the area of general applicability and robust operation as an engineering tool. Desired characteristics of next-generation CFD solvers will be discussed and the author’s view of which emerging numerical technologies might be employed to address these attributes will also be presented

David M Schuster

NASA Talks: Harsh Lunar Environments

NASA Talks - Exploration drives technology, and as NASA works toward sustained operations on the lunar surface for a permanent moonbase, it is critical to understand how the location drives what’s needed to accomplish these goals. This is especially important as we land on the lunar South Pole, which will be different and riskier than the previous Apollo landing sites. The thermal conditions will be much colder, the lighting environment is challenged with low sun angles, the regolith holds a charge in the plasma sheath, and the radiation is significantly higher than in low Earth orbit (LEO). Stephanie Sipila, Deputy Manager of Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility Program (EHP) Technology, Integration and Partnerships Office, provided knowledge and insight into the game-changing technologies NASA is exploring to mitigate these risks.

Stephanie Sipila

Giant Exfoliation Induced Magnetic Coercivity in Fe 3 GaTe 2

Permanent magnets with strong anisotropy and high coercivity underpin modern information and energy technologies, yet rare-earth-free alternatives remain limited. Here, we show that thickness engineering via mechanical exfoliation induces hard magnetic behavior in the van der Waals ferromagnet Fe 3 GaTe 2 . Bulk crystals exhibit Curie temperatures above 350 K but negligible room-temperature coercivity. When thinned below ∼100 nm, the coercive field is dramatically enhanced, reaching nearly 1 T at room temperature for in-plane fields—comparable to conventional hard magnets. Micromagnetic analysis reveals a crossover in magnetization reversal from domain-mediated processes in bulk samples to quasi-coherent rotation in thin flakes, driven by increased effective anisotropy and suppressed domain formation. This thickness-dependent transition enables tuning of magnetic hardness without chemical modification. Combined with high saturation magnetization and robust room-temperature performance, Fe 3 GaTe 2 emerges as a promising rare-earth-free material for spintronic applications. Its layered structure further allows integration into van der Waals heterostructures, where large in-plane coercivity can stabilize magnetic states against perturbations and interlayer coupling, offering potential for high-density nonvolatile memory and domain-wall-based devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.

Design and Modeling of the Charge Readout of a SiMOS Quantum Dot with a Single Electron Transistor and CryoCMOS

Single electron spin qubits trapped in SiMOS quantum dots are a promising technology for scaling to thousand- or million-qubit systems due to their compatibility with mature CMOS manufacturing processes. A readout system that combines a single electron transistor with a custom cryogenic CMOS amplification and digitization chain offers key advantages by avoiding the use of bulky RF components or room-temperature interconnects. We present design techniques and simulation results for an optimized qubit-SET cryoCMOS interface, culminating in the design of the QNDR1 ASIC, the first cryogenic readout ASIC designed under the Quandarum project, which targets the development of a many-channel spin qubit based detector for use in high energy physics.

Quinn, Adam [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000605056371)

CFD-Assisted Nodal Modeling of Sloshing in a Cryogenic Propellant Tank

During autogenous pressurization, tank sloshing causes a significant increase in pressurant consumption to maintain constant ullage pressure during draining of the tank. This increase in pressurant consumption is caused by a significant increase in condensation at the liquid-vapor interface. Sloshing strongly affects the liquid side heat transfer coefficient and thereby the condensation rate. Traditionally, sloshing is modeled by CFD code using the VOF (Volume of Fluid) method to track the liquid vapor interface during sloshing. CFD calculations require a very fine grid to accurately compute the heat and mass transfer at the interface. Therefore, computations are time consuming and prohibit performing many parametric studies often needed during the design of a new system. This paper describes an alternative approach by developing a CFD-assisted nodal model to predict system parameters more economically with reasonable accuracy. In this approach, a multi-node model of tank pressurization was developed using GFSSP. A multi-node model was needed to account for stratification. The model computes heat and mass transfer at the interface to calculate the condensation rate. The liquid side heat transfer is computed using the parameters of sloshing dynamics such as frequency, wave amplitude, and interface area. The parameters of sloshing dynamics are computed by the CFD code LOCI-Stream. The model predictions were compared with test data for several cases.

Cryogenic Tank Sloshing

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL