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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator: Cohort 2 - Asimily Public Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) sponsors the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator (TM) (CECA) to expedite the deployment of emerging security technologies that address the most urgent security concerns facing modern and future electric grids. CECA Cohort 2 assessed solutions focused on hidden risks due to incomplete system visibility and device security and configuration. Improving visibility can be achieved through operational technology (OT) asset identification solutions, including capabilities like automatic discovery, vulnerability reporting, and configuration monitoring. Solutions that monitor and identify assets in information technology (IT) networks in other domains are widely used; however, there is far less adoption of monitoring solutions for operational technology environments. Wider adoption may increase with increased confidence in the ability for these solutions to understand and respond to the specific requirements of OT environments. CECA Cohort 2 evaluated the active and passive asset discovery capabilities of market-ready solutions, documented and analyzed results, and identified gaps in functionality or capabilities. This report and describes how these results can help advance the adoption of these and similar solutions in the electric sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A census of fish passage facilities at US hydropower developments across the conterminous United States

Hydropower provides reliable and secure electricity and contributes significantly to the flexibility and stability of the US electricity grid. Hydropower dams generally are aquatic barriers and hazards to migratory fish in rivers. Fish passage facilities mitigate risks from hydropower to migratory fish, but information on these facilities is incomplete for the conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we present the first CONUS-scale dataset of fish passage facilities at US hydropower developments in over 30 years. The existence of fish passage facilities (presence or absence) was specified for 1909 hydropower features, 390 of which had at least one facility. Most features had a single passage facility that provided passage in only one direction, with downstream being more common than upstream passage. Bypasses and ladders accounted for 60 % of the fish passage facility types. While we documented 659 fish passage facilities across CONUS, facilities were most common in the New England, Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes regions. In general, fish passage facilities were more common at features that were closer to the ocean, at lower elevations, and at shorter dams, but not related to installed electrical generation capacity. Hydrologic sub-basins containing salmonids also contained the largest number of hydropower features, but the proportion of features with passage was generally higher in sub-basins containing multiple migratory taxa. This census provides valuable information on existing fish passage mitigation and is a benchmark to gauge progress toward a modernized hydropower fleet that provides affordable, reliable energy while protecting fishery resources and river ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space Electronic Test Engineering

The Space Power and Propulsion Test Engineering Branch at NASA Glenn Research center has the important duty of controlling electronic test engineering services. These services include test planning and early assessment of Space projects, management and/or technical support required to safely and effectively prepare the article and facility for testing, operation of test facilities, and validation/delivery of data to customer. The Space Electronic Test Engineering Branch is assigned electronic test engineering responsibility for the GRC Space Simulation, Microgravity, Cryogenic, and Combustion Test Facilities. While working with the Space Power and Propulsion Test Engineering Branch I am working on several different assignments. My primary assignment deals with an electrical hardware unit known as Sunny Boy. Sunny Boy is a DC load Bank that is designed for solar arrays in which it is used to convert DC power form the solar arrays into AC power at 60 hertz to pump back into the electricity grid. However, there are some researchers who decided that they would like to use the Sunny Boy unit in a space simulation as a DC load bank for a space shuttle or even the International Space Station hardware. In order to do so I must create a communication link between a computer and the Sunny Boy unit so that I can preset a few of the limits (such power, set & constant voltage levels) that Sunny Boy will need to operate using the applied DC load. Apart from this assignment I am also working on a hi-tech circuit that I need to have built at a researcher s request. This is a high voltage analog to digital circuit that will be used to record data from space ion propulsion rocket booster tests. The problem that makes building this circuit so difficult is that it contains high voltage we must find a way to lower the voltage signal before the data is transferred into the computer to be read. The solution to this problem was to transport the signal using infrared light which will lower the voltage signal down low enough so that it is harmless to a computer. Along with my involvement in the Space Power and Propulsion Test Engineering Branch, I am obligated to assist all other members of the branch in their work. This will help me to strengthen and extend my knowledge of Electrical Engineering.

Chambers, Rodney D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intelligently Partitioned Phasor-EMT Hybrid Simulations of Large-Scale, High-IBR Power Systems

As the penetration level of power electronics-interfaced renewables such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind has surged in modern electric grids, new operational risks caused by the dynamics of those inverter-based resources (IBRs) are emerging in parallel. Lessons learned from various grid events include that the impact of IBRs on system-level grid stability will become prominent along with the increase of renewables and that the short-timescale dynamic impacts of IBRs on grid stability are not fully captured by current commercial dynamic simulation tools [1] [2]. For example, IBRs can be controlled to mitigate those destabilizing interactions, but conventional phasor-domain tools (e.g. PSS/E, PSLF) often cannot capture that; likewise, the existing electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tools (e.g. PSCAD, EMTP) can simulate detailed IBR controls, but for large power systems with many IBRs, slow simulation speeds severely impede the ability to study dynamic events [3] [4]. Massively paralleling simulations using high-performance computing (HPC) can help address this, especially now that cloud-based HPC capability is widely available, but today s EMT tools are not HPC-compatible, and parallelization of dynamic simulation solvers is not trivial because each region can dynamically affect the others. Thus, dynamic simulation of grids with very large numbers of IBRs potentially poses a barrier to the ongoing energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Crewed Mission to Apophis Using a Hybrid Bimodal Nuclear Thermal Electric Propulsion (BNTEP) System

A BNTEP system is a dual propellant, hybrid propulsion concept that utilizes Bimodal Nuclear Thermal Rocket (BNTR) propulsion during high thrust operations, providing 10's of kilo-Newtons of thrust per engine at a high specific impulse (Isp) of 900 s, and an Electric Propulsion (EP) system during low thrust operations at even higher Isp of around 3000 s. Electrical power for the EP system is provided by the BNTR engines in combination with a Brayton Power Conversion (BPC) closed loop system, which can provide electrical power on the order of 100's of kWe. High thrust BNTR operation uses liquid hydrogen (LH2) as reactor coolant propellant expelled out a nozzle, while low thrust EP uses high pressure xenon expelled by an electric grid. By utilizing an optimized combination of low and high thrust propulsion, significant mass savings over a conventional NTR vehicle can be realized. Low thrust mission events, such as midcourse corrections (MCC), tank settling burns, some reaction control system (RCS) burns, and even a small portion at the end of the departure burn can be performed with EP. Crewed and robotic deep space missions to a near Earth asteroid (NEA) are best suited for this hybrid propulsion approach. For these mission scenarios, the Earth return V is typically small enough that EP alone is sufficient. A crewed mission to the NEA Apophis in the year 2028 with an expendable BNTEP transfer vehicle is presented. Assembly operations, launch element masses, and other key characteristics of the vehicle are described. A comparison with a conventional NTR vehicle performing the same mission is also provided. Finally, reusability of the BNTEP transfer vehicle is explored.

Electric Propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technical, economic, and load-following capabilities assessment of grid-connected geothermal and geothermal-solar hybrid systems

The technical and economic performance as well as the load-following capabilities of grid-connected geothermal hybrid systems were assessed in this work. The analyzed geothermal hybrid configuration is composed of a binary geothermal plant integrated with a concentrating solar-thermal system and underground thermal energy storage (UTES) through a primary heat exchanger. Physics-based models for the hybrid system for plant generation capacities of 1, 25, and 50 MW were developed from validated models for each subsystem. Also, an economic model was developed that accounts for different hybrid system capabilities, solar field sizes, and thermal storage duration. The advantage of the geothermal hybrid system was assessed by comparing the performance with the baseline benchmark geothermal plant with a similar configuration and generation capacity. It was found that hybridizing geothermal plants with concentrating solar and thermal energy storage not only improves the thermal efficiency by up to 8 percentage points when additional heat from the solar-UTES loop rises the evaporator temperatures from 70 to 125 °C, but also enhances the load-following capability for the geothermal plant, which can meet a typical residential load profile with a power rate of change 0.25 kW/s with an absolute error under 13 kW for a 1 MW plant. Other benefits of hybridization include resource preservation and a potential LCOE reduction of up to 56% for a 50 MW geothermal hybrid plant having a 50% solar share, a 1.4 solar multiple, and 24-h storage capacity. The results presented in this work demonstrate that hybridizing geothermal systems transforms them into a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing the dynamic requirements of modern electric grids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor Lifetime With Bipolar Voltage Cycling

Enhancing the lifetime of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) is critical in many aerospace, naval, or electrical grid applications, where device failure could lead to catastrophic consequences. The migration of oxygen vacancies from the ceramic to the electrode interface under constant bias is known to reduce the lifetime of oxide-based MLCCs. Bias cycling presents an opportunity to enhance MLCC lifetime by reducing oxygen vacancy migration. The ideal frequency range is expected to lie between frequencies low enough to avoid self-heating but high enough to avoid interfacial defect formation. However, the impact of low-frequency bipolar voltage cycling (BVC) on MLCC degradation mechanisms has not been well studied. This work investigates the impact of periodic BVC on the degradation of MLCCs through highly accelerated lifetime testing (HALT) on X7R capacitors. HALT tests were conducted at 255 °C and 60 V using different switching frequencies: 0 (dc), 0.1, 2.5, and 10 Hz. BVC was found to improve the lifetime of MLCCs compared to dc test conditions. MLCCs tested at 10-Hz BVC showed a 311% increase in average time to failure compared to the dc case. Impedance spectroscopy shows that BVC decreases the rate of resistance degradation within MLCCs, indicating that oxygen vacancy migration to the electrodes is mitigated. The impedance spectra taken on BVC samples highlight how grain boundaries play a vital role in trapping oxygen vacancies. Periodic cycling causes oxygen vacancies to become trapped at grain boundaries, resulting in oxygen vacancies taking longer to reach the electrode interface and thus increasing MLCC lifetime. This work highlights not only how BVC can be used to increase MLCC lifetime but also how periodically cycling MLCCs could increase lifetime in extreme environments, such as at elevated temperatures and electric fields.

Chuong, Kayla Y.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset of U.S. School Bus Depots

A large body of public health literature describes how undesirable or dangerous facilities, such as truck depots and industrial plants, located in or near communities can lead to health harms. Research also describes the high levels of traffic-related air and noise pollution that is linked to health harms and may be disproportionately distributed near many schools. Therefore, a primary use case for this dataset is to analyze the location of school bus depots and to create an evidence base that would better enable the work of community members, advocates, and other stakeholders toward improving air quality and public health. Other possible uses for this school bus depot dataset include electricity grid planning and reliability, given recent momentum toward school bus electrification. This dataset was created using an object-based approach with remote sensing data. The primary source of aerial imagery was the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset. NAIP imagery was analyzed to locate individual school buses based on their color and size, and then classified clusters of school buses as potential depots, which were then verified visually. The resulting dataset contains 11,309 depots across the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Washington, D.C. Fifty-one percent (5,730 depots) are at schools, defined as being 350 meters or less from the nearest school. The accuracy of the dataset was assessed by comparing it with independent reference datasets containing 506 depots from the records of two school transportation companies. We found good agreement, with an omission error rate of 15.2% (77 depots). This dataset represents one of the only remote sensing projects to conduct object detection using data at the sub-meter to 1-meter resolution for a continental-scale application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher Efficiency, Demand Flexible Refrigerator with On-Demand Micro-Vibrational De-icing Technology

Refrigerator technology has advanced significantly over the last couple of decades. Today’s refrigerators use only about 25% of the energy that was required to power models built in 1975. Even as they continually improve efficiency to meet standards, refrigerators have increased in size by almost 20%, added energy-consuming features such as through-the-door ice, and provide more benefits than ever before. However, a few challenges and technology gaps are preventing further improvement of the demand responsiveness and efficiency of the refrigerators. One of the major technology gaps in existing refrigerators is their outdated de-icing process. When the evaporator generates frost, an old-fashioned resistive heating element melts the ice. Most refrigerators have a timed defrost cycle, rather than an active system that could monitor the state of the frost. In these systems, not only is the precious electricity used at its least efficient form of conversion (direct conversion of electricity to heat), but also all the latent heat associated with the ice is wasted during the melting process. On top of that, the refrigerator needs to work harder to pull the temperature down after defrosting, and, last but not least, the food quality is severely impacted by the temperature swings during the defrost cycle. According to a study, the EU alone wastes 89 million tons of food in the supply chain every year. Any temperature swing during defrosting (about 6F according to Emerson for low-temperature cases) can negatively impact the shelf life of meat and other products for multiple days. All these issues can happen during the peak demand time of the electric grid. Unlike the conventional systems, the proposed novel advanced micro-vibrational deicing process uses no heat for defrosting. Instead, it uses the micro vibrations generated by a piezoelectric or vibration-generating module to mechanically break ice from the heat exchanger almost instantaneously. The project titled “Higher Efficiency, Demand Flexible Refrigerator with On-Demand Micro-Vibrational De-icing Technology, performed by Ultrasonic Technology Solutions, LLC (UTS) of Knoxville, TN, in collaboration with Emerson (now Copeland), represents the final phase of a multi-year effort funded under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) BENEFIT FOA 2020. Initiated on October 1, 2021, and completed after a nine-month no-cost extension ending September 30, 2025, this project aimed to develop and validate a novel micro-vibrational mechanical defrosting system, achieving more than 25% improvement in defrosting energy efficiency over conventional baseline defrosting technologies. Over sixteen quarters, the project advanced from fundamental ice-mechanical characterization and prototype development to full-scale system integration and validation. Initial efforts established project management infrastructure and characterized ice adhesion properties, followed by the design and fabrication of early aluminum-based prototypes for resonance frequency testing. Subsequent quarters saw rapid technical progression, including the identification of optimal piezoelectric and motor-based vibration mechanisms, the demonstration of effective de-icing over 6x6-inch aluminum surfaces. The team achieved its Go/No-Go milestone by exceeding the 25% energy-efficiency improvement target—reaching up to 3,340% under optimized conditions—and later confirmed that motor-driven systems offered superior performance and energy efficiency compared to piezoelectric alternatives. Continued refinement led to the development of amplifier systems on printed circuit boards, improved control and instrumentation hardware, and integration into full-scale heat exchanger (HX) prototypes at both UTS and Copeland facilities. Multiple vibration-mounting studies and frost-growth experiments guided mechanical optimization and noise-mitigation strategies, achieving a 17.5 dB reduction in sound pressure level and verifying robust mechanical performance. Advanced analyses, including modal and harmonic simulations, established a quantitative understanding of vibrational behavior and de-icing efficiency across >1000 cm² systems. The final project phase successfully demonstrated scalable integration within reach-in and chest freezer prototypes, confirmed >25% efficiency improvements in large-area systems, and completed a comprehensive business model and scale-up strategy identifying electric defrost systems as the primary beachhead market. The culmination of this DOE-supported effort establishes micro-vibrational defrosting as a viable, high-efficiency, low-noise, and demand-flexible de-icing technology, paving the way for commercial deployment and broader application in next-generation refrigeration systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Underground hydrogen storage resource assessment for the Cook Inlet, Alaska

Underground hydrogen storage will be essential to a hydrogen economy. This work focuses on the challenge of identifying and screening candidate storage systems, given the unique behavior of hydrogen in the subsurface. Here, we describe a resource assessment methodology and apply it to Alaska’s Cook Inlet region. Alaska provides an interesting case study because of its abundant renewable energy resources, relatively low energy demand, and isolated electrical grid. The assessment framework considers each site’s ability to (1) store a specific volume, (2) physically-contain the stored gas, and (3) limit biogeochemical activity. We estimate that reservoirs in the Cook Inlet area could theoretically store a total of 286 TWh (or 8.6 million tonnes [Mt]) in hydrogen working gas in 92 pools. This is likely sufficient to meet both local hydrogen demand and support an array of exportable products. We further identify seven pools that may be especially well-suited for hydrogen storage. Broadly, this work demonstrates a framework for regional resource assessments. On a finer scale, this work supports an early demonstration of porous–media hydrogen storage in the United States.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing peak electricity demand for U.S. households: an assessment of end-use loads and demand factors

Understanding household peak electricity demand is critical to evaluate the technical need for electrical infrastructure upgrades. This study characterizes peak loads for existing and new equipment using metered data from a convenience sample of 11,940 U.S. dwellings from four sources, including 911 from two sources with end-use metering. After standardized data cleaning and labeling, we derived descriptive statistics for key metrics, such as maximum demand and demand factors, and developed predictive models relating 60- to 15-min demand for the National Electrical Code (NEC). Mean 15-min maximum demand was 9.7 kW (median 9.0 kW; IQR 7.0–11.5 kW, 95% CI 9.6–9.8 kW), indicating spare capacity in 98% of homes with hypothetical 100 A panels. Maximum demand increased with floor area and number of high-demand loads. Dwelling maximum demand was driven by higher-power, longer-duration heating appliances and vehicle charging, while most user-operated appliances contributed little. Demand factors are used to account for how most devices contribute less than their rated power to maximum demand. Existing load mean demand factors (28%; median 10%; IQR 0–58%; CI 28–29%) were higher than those for new loads (21%; median 7%; IQR 0–35%; CI 20–21%), because new loads changed the timing and magnitude of maximum demand. New high-demand loads had higher than average demand factors (40–60%). Whole dwelling demand factors support the NEC's 40% assumption, but they challenge its conservative 100% treatment of new HVAC. We propose a data-driven 50% demand factor for new equipment, which would align with metered data, improve affordability, and modernize electrical codes.

Appliances↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive assessment of deep reinforcement learning approaches for economic dispatch in nuclear-driven microgrids

As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy impact of heating electrification in mid-rise multifamily buildings in mixed-humid climates

Decarbonizing the electric grid in conjunction with electrifying residential heating is a critical step to combat climate change. Heating in multifamily buildings with the existing natural gas-fired central boiler is a complex process that not only leads to overheating in some apartment units but also results in energy waste and high gas bills. In this study, we consider a multifamily building in New York City, USA, to evaluate the performance of five different heating systems, which represent a step-by-step transition from the conventional to a fully electrified heating system, and determine their impact on the site energy consumption and source CO 2 emissions. Results indicate that overheating in a multifamily building can raise the indoor temperature by as much as 8°C above comfortable limits. Transitioning from conventional steam radiators to cold climate heat pumps can reduce annual site heating energy by up to 70% and source CO 2 emissions by up to 21%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗