Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Energy prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a TRISO assessment case for BISON based on transient experiments in the NSRR

The tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel assessment and validation database currently available in BISON is based mainly on steady-state irradiation and high-temperature furnace testing. Transient assessment cases are needed to support ongoing U.S. industry efforts to design and deploy commercial reactors that utilize TRISO fuels. Most available historical transient tests involving TRISO fuels were characterized by power densities, temperatures, and energy depositions that were highly conservative with respect to typical high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) accident conditions. Nonetheless, assessment of BISON's predictive capabilities, adaptation of material properties toward high-temperature and high-particle-power regimes, and development of a systematic approach to validating BISON for TRISO transient applications now motivate the modeling of historical transient tests. This work describes the development of 1-D thermal models of transient experiments conducted at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan, with BISON predictions of energy deposition, UO2 melting onset, and molten volume fractions being compared against experimental measurements. Melting is accounted for by defining an effective specific heat capacity for UO2—one that leverages the material's heat of melting. BISON's predictions of energy deposition and molten volume fraction are in good agreement with the experimental data from the low-energy-deposition tests; however, BISON tends to overpredict melting at higher energy depositions. Though overly conservative compared to the operating conditions expected for near-term TRISO-fueled reactor applications, these simulations effectively exercise BISON TRISO models over a wider range of conditions than those encompassed by the existing assessment database. Potential contributors to the observed discrepancies are noted and additional future developments proposed.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy and mechanical properties predictions in Fe-Ni binary system by ab initio calculations

Here, the fcc random solid solutions in Fe-Ni binary system were investigated using ab initio calculations. Density functional theory (DFT) was applied along with supercells generated by the Special Quasi-Random Structure (SQS) method to predict the enthalpy of mixing and magnetic and elastic properties. The results were compared with relevant experimental and computational data produced by other groups. The effect of SQS supercell size and relaxation procedure on the predicted properties of the alloys were also studied. Our calculations show that 16-atoms SQS model provides adequate approach to the mixing energy of the alloy. However, calculation of mechanical properties requires larger supercell. Excellent agreement between experimental and calculated elastic properties was found in fcc region of Fe-Ni system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Moving closer to experimental level materials property prediction using AI

Abstract While experiments and DFT-computations have been the primary means for understanding the chemical and physical properties of crystalline materials, experiments are expensive and DFT-computations are time-consuming and have significant discrepancies against experiments. Currently, predictive modeling based on DFT-computations have provided a rapid screening method for materials candidates for further DFT-computations and experiments; however, such models inherit the large discrepancies from the DFT-based training data. Here, we demonstrate how AI can be leveraged together with DFT to compute materials properties more accurately than DFT itself by focusing on the critical materials science task of predicting “formation energy of a material given its structure and composition”. On an experimental hold-out test set containing 137 entries, AI can predict formation energy from materials structure and composition with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.064 eV/atom; comparing this against DFT-computations, we find that AI can significantly outperform DFT computations for the same task (discrepancies of $$>0.076$$ > 0.076 eV/atom) for the first time.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Look Inside the Black Box: Using graph-theoretical descriptors to interpret a Continuous-Filter Convolutional Neural Network (CF-CNN) trained on the global and local minimum energy structures of neutral water clusters

A Continuous Filter Convolutional Neural Network (CF-CNN) was trained to predict the potential energy of water cluster networks \ce{(H2O)_{\textit{N}}}, \textit{N}=10--30, corresponding to local minima lying within 5 kcal/mol from the putative minima taken from a newly published database containing over 5 million unique networks. The chemical sampling space of the database was characterized using chemical descriptors derived from graph theory, which led to the identification of important trends in the topology, connectivity, polygon structures associated with the various networks as a function of cluster size. The resulting graphs are available alongside the original database at \url{https://sites.uw.edu/wdbase/}. The CF-CNN trained on a subset of 500,000 networks for (\textit{N}=10, 30) yielded a mean absolute error of 0.002$\pm$0.002 kcal/mol per water molecule, giving the trained CF-CNN the highest accuracy of any neural network-based surrogate model to date. In addition, clusters of sizes not included in the training set exhibited errors of the same magnitude, indicating that the CF-CNN ptotocol is general enough to accurately predict energies of networks for both smaller and larger sizes than those used during training. The graph-theoretical descriptors were developed in order to analyze the properties of the full database and interpret the predictive power of the CF-CNN. Using topology measures, such as the Wiener index and the average shortest path length along with two similarity measures, we showed that all networks from the test set were within the range of the ones from the training set, suggesting that the training set covered the chemical space of interest quite well. Our graph analysis suggests that the mean degree and number of polygons for networks with larger errors tend to lie further from the mean than those with lower errors. The generality of the used CF-CNN was thus demonstrated, while the use of the graph-theoretical descriptors assisted in interpreting the predicted results.

Bilbrey, Jenna A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mobility Energy Productivity Evaluation of Prediction-Based Vehicle Powertrain Control Combined with Optimal Traffic Management

Transportation vehicle and network system efficiency can be defined in two ways: 1) reduction of travel times across all the vehicles in the system, and 2) reduction in total energy consumed by all the vehicles in the system. The mechanisms to realize these efficiencies are treated as independent (i.e., vehicle and network domains) and, when combined, they have not been adequately studied to date. This research aims to integrate previously developed and published research on Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategies (POEMS) and Intelligent Traffic Systems (ITS), to address the need for quantifying improvement in system efficiency resulting from simultaneous vehicle and network optimization. POEMS and ITS are partially independent methods which do not require each other to function but whose individual effectiveness may be affected by the presence of the other. In order to evaluate the system level efficiency improvements, the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric is used. MEP specifically measures the connectedness of a system while accounting for time and energy externalities of modes that provide mobility in a given location. A SUMO model is developed to reflect real traffic patterns in Fort Collins, Colorado and data is collected by a probe SUMO vehicle which is validated against data collected on a real vehicle driving the same routes through the city. Individual vehicle and system level efficiencies are calculated using SUMO outputs for scenarios which integrate POEMS and ITS independently as well as jointly. Results from application of POEMS and ITS show improvement in energy consumption and travel times respectively when compared to the respective baseline scenarios. Our conclusion is that there are promising synergistic benefits to travel time and energy efficiency when POEMS and ITS are combined.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Efficient Surveillance, Control, and Automation of Geothermal Operations with Advanced Predictive Analytics

Automation and control of geothermal energy production and operations require reliable and efficient predictive tools. While physics-based simulation offers a comprehensive tool for predicting energy production performance in geothermal systems, predicting the behavior of geothermal reservoirs involves complex multi-physics processes with coupling effects, highly uncertain input parameters and subsurface descriptions. Moreover, building, running, and integrating simulation models into standard model calibration and optimization workflows entail significant technical and computational efforts. An emerging alternative to physics-based simulation is data-driven predictive analytics models that have gained popularity in energy industry. In this report, we develop novel predictive models for integration into real-time fault diagnosis and model predictive control algorithms to improve the efficiency of energy production operations in geothermal reservoirs. The report includes two major research Thrust Areas, that is, the surface power plant and the subsurface reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ground State Energy Functional with Hartree–Fock Efficiency and Chemical Accuracy

We introduce the deep post Hartree–Fock (DeePHF) method, a machine learning-based scheme for constructing accurate and transferable models for the ground-state energy of electronic structure problems. DeePHF predicts the energy difference between results of highly accurate models such as the coupled cluster method and low accuracy models such as the Hartree–Fock (HF) method, using the ground-state electronic orbitals as the input. It preserves all the symmetries of the original high accuracy model. The added computational cost is less than that of the reference HF or DFT and scales linearly with respect to system size. We examine the performance of DeePHF on organic molecular systems using publicly available data sets and obtain the state-of-art performance, particularly on large data sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Defects go green: using defects in nanomaterials for renewable energy and environmental sustainability

Induction of point defects in nanomaterials can bestow upon them entirely new physics or augment their pre-existing physical properties, thereby expanding their potential use in green energy technology. Predicting structure-property relationships for defects a priori is challenging, and developing methods for precise control of defect type, density, or structural distribution during synthesis is an even more formidable task. Hence, tuning the defect structure to tailor nanomaterials for enhanced device performance remains an underutilized tool in materials design. We review here the state of nanomaterial design through the lens of computational prediction of defect properties for green energy technology, and synthesis methods to control defect formation for optimal performance. We illustrate the efficacy of defect-focused approaches for refining nanomaterial physics by describing several specific applications where these techniques hold potential. Most notably, we focus on quantum dots for reabsorption-free solar windows and net-zero emission buildings, oxide cathodes for high energy density lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, and transition metal dichalcogenides for electrocatalytic green hydrogen production and carbon-free fuels.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental and Computational Description of the Interaction of H and H – with U

In this work, the results of ab initio correlated molecular orbital theory electronic structure calculations for low-lying electronic states are presented for UH and UH – and compared to photoelectron spectroscopy measurements. The calculations were performed at the CCSD(T)/CBS and multireference CASPT2 including spin–orbit effects by the state interacting approach levels. The ground states of UH and UH – are predicted to be 4 Ι 9/2 and 5 Λ 6 , respectively. The spectroscopic parameters T e , r e , ω e , ω e x e , and Be were obtained, and potential energy curves were calculated for the low energy Ω states of UH. The calculated adiabatic electron affinity is 0.468 eV in excellent agreement with an experimental value of 0.462 ± 0.013 eV. The lowest vertical detachment energy was predicted to be 0.506 eV for the ground state, and the adiabatic ionization energy (IE) is predicted to be 6.116 eV. The bond dissociation energy (BDE) and heat of formation values of UH were obtained using the IE calculated at the Feller–Peterson–Dixon level. For UH, UH – , and UH + , the BDEs were predicted to be 225.5, 197.9, and 235.5 kJ/mol, respectively. The BDE for UH is predicted to be ~20% lower in energy than that for ThH. The analysis of the natural bond orbitals shows a significant U + H – ionic component in the bond of UH.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Superscaling variable and neutrino energy reconstruction from theoretical predictions to experimental limitations

We introduce the novel approach of using the superscaling variable as an observable and an analysis tool in the context of charged current neutrino-nucleus interactions. We study the relation between the superscaling variable and the removal energy, in addition to other fundamental parameters of the neutrino-nucleus interaction models. In the second half of the paper, we discuss the experimental viability of this measurement following a study of neutrino energy and missing momentum reconstruction. We show that the superscaling variable is measurable in neutrino interaction experiments provided that the proton is detected in the final state. We discuss the resolution of this measurement, and the limitation imposed by the proton’s detection threshold. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Prediction of Airborne Wind Energy Systems Using Multivariate Machine Learning

Kites can be used to harvest wind energy at higher altitudes while using only a fraction of the material required for conventional wind turbines. In this work, we present the kite system of Kyushu University and demonstrate how experimental data can be used to train machine learning regression models. The system is designed for 7 kW traction power and comprises an inflatable wing with suspended kite control unit that is either tethered to a fixed ground anchor or to a towing vehicle to produce a controlled relative flow environment. A measurement unit was attached to the kite for data acquisition. To predict the generated tether force, we collected input–output samples from a set of well-designed experimental runs to act as our labeled training data in a supervised machine learning setting. We then identified a set of key input parameters which were found to be consistent with our sensitivity analysis using Pearson input–output correlation metrics. Finally, we designed and tested the accuracy of a neural network, among other multivariate regression models. The quality metrics of our models show great promise in accurately predicting the tether force for new input/feature combinations and potentially guide new designs for optimal power generation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of laser beam spatial profiles in a high-energy laser facility by use of deep learning

We adapt the significant advances achieved recently in the field of generative artificial intelligence/machine-learning to laser performance modeling in multipass, high-energy laser systems with application to high-shot-rate facilities relevant to inertial fusion energy. Advantages of neural-network architectures include rapid prediction capability, data-driven processing, and the possibility to implement such architectures within future low-latency, low-power consumption photonic networks. Four models were investigated that differed in their generator loss functions and utilized the U-Net encoder/decoder architecture with either a reconstruction loss alone or combined with an adversarial network loss. We achieved inference times of 1.3 ms for a 256 × 256 pixel near-field beam with errors in predicted energy of the order of 1% over most of the energy range. It is shown that prediction errors are significantly reduced by ensemble averaging the models with different weight initializations. These results suggest that including the temporal dimension in such models may provide accurate, real-time spatiotemporal predictions of laser performance in high-shot-rate laser systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of efficiency-aware model-predictive control approaches for wave energy devices

In this study, we compare four different formulations of model predictive control that attempt to maximise electrical power generated by a wave energy converter (WEC). Control laws include (1) pure maximisation of mechanical power, (2) maximisation of mechanical power with a control penalty factor, (3) maximisation of electrical power using power conversion efficiency, and (4) maximisation of electrical power using the full electro-mechanical model of a system. For this study, a wave-to-wire model is developed for a floating spherical buoy connected to a permanent magnet synchronous generator. The performance of the controllers, including the mechanical and electrical power outputs, is compared in irregular wave conditions for the unconstrained and force-constrained scenarios. The results demonstrate that the controller designed to maximise mechanical power is not suitable for practical applications and may lead to negative electrical power output due to the non-ideal power take-off efficiency. Moreover, the replacement of the power take-off dynamics by the efficiency coefficient does not guarantee the maximum electrical power production.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Invariant Molecular Representations for Heterogeneous Catalysis

Catalyst screening is a critical step in the discovery and development of heterogeneous catalysts, which are vital for a wide range of chemical processes. In recent years, computational catalyst screening, primarily through density functional theory (DFT), has gained significant attention as a method for identifying promising catalysts. However, the computation of adsorption energies for all likely chemical intermediates present in complex surface chemistries is computationally intensive and costly due to the expensive nature of these calculations and the intrinsic idiosyncrasies of the methods or data sets used. This study introduces a novel machine learning (ML) method to learn adsorption energies from multiple DFT functionals by using invariant molecular representations (IMRs). To do this, we first extract molecular fingerprints for the reaction intermediates and later use a Siamese-neural-network-based training strategy to learn invariant molecular representations or the IMR across all available functionals. Our Siamese network-based representations demonstrate superior performance in predicting adsorption energies compared with other molecular representations. Notably, when considering mean absolute values of adsorption energies as 0.43 eV (PBE-D3), 0.46 eV (BEEF-vdW), 0.81 eV (RPBE), and 0.37 eV (scan+rVV10), our IMR method has achieved the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0.18 0.10, 0.16, and 0.18 eV, respectively. These results emphasize the superior predictive capacity of our Siamese network-based representations. The empirical findings in this study illuminate the efficacy, robustness, and dependability of our proposed ML paradigm in predicting adsorption energies, specifically for propane dehydrogenation on a platinum catalyst surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Model Predictions and Performance Test Data for a Prototype Thermal Energy Storage Module

Although model predictions of thermal energy storage (TES) performance have been explored in previous investigations, relevant test data that enable experimental validation of performance models have been limited. This is particularly true for high-performance TES designs that facilitate fast input and extraction of energy. In this paper, we present a summary of experimental tests of a high-performance TES unit using lithium nitrate trihydrate phase change material as a storage medium. Performance data are presented for complete dual-mode cycles consisting of extraction (melting) followed by charging (freezing). These tests simulate the cyclic operation of a TES unit for asynchronous cooling in a variety of applications. Finally, the model analysis is found to agree reasonably well, within 10%, with the experimental data except for conditions very near the initiation of freezing, a consequence of subcooling that is required to initiate solidification.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-range vehicle speed prediction using vehicle connectivity for enhanced energy efficiency of vehicles

An integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data mining and real-time V2I communications for CAVs. The present framework provides multi-horizon speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The present multi-horizon speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs) as a case study. The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the present data mining strategy over long prediction horizons. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAV speed predictions, the vehicle level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal-driving and conventional BTM strategy.

Amini, Mohammad Reza↗
DOE OSTI2020

CHARMM-GUI Free Energy Calculator for Absolute and Relative Ligand Solvation and Binding Free Energy Simulations

Alchemical free energy simulations have long been utilized to predict free energy changes for binding affinity and solubility of small molecules. However, while the theoretical foundation of these methods is well established, seamlessly handling many of the practical aspects regarding the preparation of the different thermodynamic end states of complex molecular systems and the numerous processing scripts often remains a burden for successful applications. Here, we present CHARMM-GUI Free Energy Calculator (http://www.charmm-gui.org/input/fec) that provides various alchemical free energy perturbation molecular dynamics (FEP/MD) systems with input and post-processing scripts for NAMD and GENESIS. Four submodules are available: Absolute Ligand Binder (for absolute ligand binding FEP/MD), Relative Ligand Binder (for relative ligand binding FEP/MD), Absolute Ligand Solvator (for absolute ligand solvation FEP/MD), and Relative Ligand Solvator (for relative ligand solvation FEP/MD). Each module is designed to build multiple systems of a set of selected ligands at once for high-throughput FEP/MD simulations. The capability of Free Energy Calculator is illustrated by absolute and relative solvation FEP/MD of a set of ligands and absolute and relative binding FEP/MD of a set of ligands for T4-lysozyme in solution and the adenosine A 2A receptor in a membrane. The calculated free energy values are overall consistent with the experimental and published free energy results (within ~1 kcal/mol). We hope that Free Energy Calculator is useful to carry out high-throughput FEP/MD simulations in the field of biomolecular sciences and drug discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF COMPOSITE METHODS: A G4MP2 METHOD WITH G4-LIKE ACCURACY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MACHINE LEARNING

G4MP2 theory has proven to be a reliable and accurate quantum chemical composite method for the calculation of molecular energies using an approximation based on second-order perturbation theory to lower computational costs compared to G4 theory. However, it has been found to have significantly increased errors when applied to larger organic molecules with 10 or more nonhydrogen atoms. We report here on an investigation of the cause of the failure of G4MP2 theory for such larger molecules. One source of error is found to be the "higher-level correction (HLC)", which is meant to correct for deficiencies in correlation contributions to the calculated energies. This is because the HLC assumes that the contribution is independent of the element and the type of bonding involved, both of which become more important with larger molecules. We address this problem by adding an atom-specific correction, dependent on atom type but not bond type, to the higher-level correction. We find that a G4MP2 method that incorporates this modification of the higher-level correction, referred to as G4MP2A, becomes as accurate as G4 theory (for computing enthalpies of formation) for a test set of molecules with less than 10 nonhydrogen atoms as well as a set with 10-14 such atoms, the set of molecules considered here, with a much lower computational cost. The G4MP2A method is also found to significantly improve ionization potentials and electron affinities. Finally, we implemented the G4MP2A energies in a machine learning method to predict molecular energies.

Dandu, Naveen↗