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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Turbulence Representation on the Relationship Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in an E3SMv2 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

Recent studies reveal an anti‐correlation between global cloud feedback (CF) and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interaction (ERFaci) in Earth system models, but the physical mechanisms underlying it remain uncertain. Here we investigate how different turbulence representations contribute to this relationship over the global ocean using an ensemble of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 simulations with perturbed turbulence parameters. The anti‐correlation appears only in the tropical ascent regime. In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high latitude regimes, there is no significant correlation, and in the tropical marine low cloud and Southern Ocean regimes, the correlation is positive. These opposite correlations are primarily driven by opposing CF responses to perturbed parameters. We find that the mean‐state turbulent mixing strength affects both CF and ERFaci, enabling strong correlations in certain regimes. This study highlights the complex linkages between CF and ERFaci through turbulent processes across diverse cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global-mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m −2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. While global-mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol-cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two-moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

Nugent, Jacqueline M. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

DOE OSTI2025

A unified ensemble soil moisture dataset across the continental United States

Abstract A unified ensemble soil moisture (SM) package has been developed over the Continental United States (CONUS). The data package includes 19 products from land surface models, remote sensing, reanalysis, and machine learning models. All datasets are unified to a 0.25-degree and monthly spatiotemporal resolution, providing a comprehensive view of surface SM dynamics. The statistical analysis of the datasets leverages the Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification to explore surface SM’s spatiotemporal variabilities. The extracted SM characteristics highlight distinct patterns, with the western CONUS showing larger coefficient of variation values and the eastern CONUS exhibiting higher SM values. Remote sensing datasets tend to be drier, while reanalysis products present wetter conditions. In-situ SM observations serve as the basis for wavelet power spectrum analyses to explain discrepancies in temporal scales across datasets facilitating daily SM records. This study provides a comprehensive soil moisture data package and an analysis framework that can be used for Earth system model evaluations and uncertainty quantification, quantifying drought impacts and land–atmosphere interactions and making recommendations for drought response planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ni 2 P active site ensembles tune electrocatalytic nitrate reduction selectivity

Here, we demonstrate that active site ensembles on transition metal phosphides tune the selectivity of the nitrate reduction reaction. Using Ni 2 P nanocrystals as a case study, we report a mechanism involving competitive co-adsorption of H* and NO x * intermediates. A near 100% faradaic efficiency for nitrate reduction over hydrogen evolution is observed at -0.4 V, while NH 3 selectivity is maximized at -0.2 V vs. RHE.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revealing the role of redox reaction selectivity and mass transfer in current–voltage predictions for ensembles of photocatalysts

Photocatalysts are conceptually simple reaction units where nanoscale semiconductors integrated with catalysts drive a pair of redox reactions on illumination. However, the proximity of reaction sites performing cathodic and anodic reactions poses dire challenges to realize large light-to-fuel conversion efficiencies. In this study, a powerful, yet straightforward, equivalent-circuit detail-balance modeling framework is developed and applied to evaluate the performance of photocatalytic systems featuring multiple light absorbers. Specifically, low bandgap iridium-doped strontium titanate is modeled as a Z-scheme photocatalyst to achieve desirable hydrogen evolution and iron-based redox shuttle oxidation reactions. Our model has unique capabilities to simulate competing redox reactions and address mass-transfer limitations. In a significant departure from state-of-the-art circuit models, our study develops tools to perform load-line analyses by incorporating a net electrochemical load curve that includes both desired and competing redox reactions. Consequently, reaction selectivity is predicted from equivalent circuit models for photocatalytic and photoelectrochemical systems. Our investigation into ensembles comprised of multiple, semi-transparent light absorbers reveals their potential to outperform a single, optically thick light absorber, particularly when operated under mass-transfer-limited conditions. However, this outcome hinges on minimizing mass-transfer rates of select redox species to prevent undesired reactions of hydrogen oxidation and/or redox shuttle reduction. Our findings demonstrate that reaction selectivity can be achieved by tuning asymmetry in redox species mass-transfer even with perfectly symmetric electrocatalytic charge-transfer coefficients. The influences of various kinetic, mass-transfer, and thermodynamic parameters are explored to offer crucial insights for synthesis of the next-generation of photocatalysts and selective coatings, and reactor designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the unfolded structure of ubiquitin: Combining time-resolved x-ray solution scattering and molecular dynamics to generate unfolded ensembles

The unfolding dynamics of ubiquitin were studied using a combination of x-ray solution scattering (XSS) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The kinetic analysis of the XSS ubiquitin signals showed that the protein unfolds through a two-state process, independent of the presence of destabilizing salts. In order to characterize the ensemble of unfolded states in atomic detail, the experimental XSS results were used as a constraint in the MD simulations through the incorporation of x-ray scattering derived potential to drive the folded ubiquitin structure toward sampling unfolded states consistent with the XSS signals. We detail how biased MD simulations provide insight into unfolded states that are otherwise difficult to resolve and underscore how experimental XSS data can be combined with MD to efficiently sample structures away from the native state. Our results indicate that ubiquitin samples unfolded in states with a high degree of loss in secondary structure yet without a collapse to a molten globule or fully solvated extended chain. Finally, we propose how using biased-MD can significantly decrease the computational time and resources required to sample experimentally relevant nonequilibrium states.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Plasma confinement state classification in fusion power plants: Profile reflectometer and ensemble diagnostics

As Fusion Pilot Plants (FPPs) are increasingly viewed as within reach, many engineering challenges remain. Not many diagnostics are expected to be available in a reactor environment. Survivability, maintainability, and limited port space substantially restrict the number of FPP-relevant diagnostics. One remaining challenge is developing tools and devices to extract plasma state information necessary for controlling an FPP from a limited subset of diagnostics. This work is part of an overarching project to address this challenge. The specific diagnostic subset to be used in FPPs is still under debate. We take the approach of developing machine-learning-based tools for different significant plasma state parameters, using already known FPP-viable diagnostics. Previously we developed a plasma confinement mode classifier utilizing the Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) diagnostic. Here, we expand on this by developing a Profile Reflectometer (PR) based classifier with 97% test accuracy, and an ensemble model that combines the ECE and PR models into a single model, achieving 99% test accuracy.

Clark, Randall [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flavor diagonal nucleon charges using clover fermions on MILC HISQ ensembles

We present lattice results for the flavor diagonal charges of the proton from the analysis of eight ensembles generated using 2+1+1-flavors of highly improved staggered quarks by the MILC Collaboration. The calculation includes all the needed connected and disconnected contributions to nucleon three-point function. For extracting matrix elements using fits to the spectral decomposition of these correlation functions, two strategies to remove excited state contributions are employed and compared. To renormalize these charges, the 2+1-flavor mixing matrix is calculated in the regularization independent symmetric momentum subtraction intermediate scheme on the lattice. The final results are presented in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at scale 2 GeV. The axial charges for the proton are $𝑔$$^{𝑢}_{𝐴}$ = 0.781⁢(25), $𝑔$$^{𝑑}_{𝐴}$ =−0.440⁢(39), and $𝑔$$^{𝑠}_{𝐴}$ = −0.055⁢(9); the tensor charges are $𝑔$$^{𝑢}_{𝑇}$ = 0.782⁢(28), $𝑔$$^{𝑑}_{𝑇}$ = −0.195⁢(16), and $𝑔$$^{𝑠}_{𝑇}$ = −0.0016⁢(12); and the scalar charges are $𝑔$$^{𝑢}_{𝑆}$ = 9.39⁢(88), $𝑔$$^{𝑑}_{𝑆}$ = 8.84⁢(93), and $𝑔$$^{𝑠}_{𝑆}$ = 0.37⁢(14). Results for the neutron are given by the 𝑢 ↔ 𝑑 interchange. Results for the sigma terms are 𝜎 𝜋⁢𝑁 | standard = 42⁢(6) MeV from a “standard” analysis and 𝜎 𝜋⁢𝑁 | 𝑁⁢𝜋 = 61⁢(6) MeV from an “𝑁⁢𝜋” analysis that includes the contributions of multihadron 𝑁⁢𝜋 excited states as motivated by chiral perturbation theory. Our preferred value 𝜎 𝜋⁢𝑁 | 𝑁⁢𝜋 is consistent with the phenomenological extraction from 𝜋 −𝑁 scattering data. The strangeness content of the proton, for which the standard analysis is appropriate, is 𝜎 𝑠 | standard = 35⁢(13) MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

All-optical photoluminescence response of nitrogen-vacancy ensembles in diamond at low magnetic fields

All-optical (AO) microwave-free magnetometry using nitrogen-vacancy (N-𝑉) centers in diamond is attractive due to its broad applicability and reduced experimental complexity. In this work, we investigate room-temperature AO photoluminescence (PL) at low magnetic fields ( <2 mT) using diamonds with N-𝑉 ensembles at parts-per-million (ppm) concentrations. The measured AO-PL contrast features as a function of the applied magnetic field magnitude and direction are correlated with near-degenerate N-𝑉 electronic spin and hyperfine transitions from different N-𝑉 orientations within the diamond host. Reasonable agreement is found between low-field AO-PL measurements and model-based simulations of the effects of resonant dipolar interactions between N-𝑉 centers. The maximum observed AO-PL contrast depends on both the N-𝑉 concentration and the laser-illumination intensity at 532 nm. These results imply different optimal conditions for low-field AO N-𝑉 sensing compared to conventional optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) techniques, suggesting new research and application opportunities using AO measurements with lower system complexity, size, weight, and power.

Dipolar interaction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-Gaussian Generalized Two-Mode Squeezing: Applications to Two-Ensemble Spin Squeezing and Beyond

Bosonic two-mode squeezed states are paradigmatic entangled Gaussian states that have wide utility in quantum information and metrology. Here, in this study, we show that the basic structure of these states can be generalized to arbitrary bipartite quantum systems in a manner that allows simultaneous, Heisenberg-limited estimation of two independent parameters for finite-dimensional systems. Further, we show that these general states can always be stabilized by a relatively simple Markovian dissipative process. In the specific case where the two subsystems are ensembles of two-level atoms or spins, our generalized states define a notion of two-mode spin squeezing that is valid beyond the Gaussian limit and that enables true multiparameter estimation. We discuss how generalized Ramsey measurements allow one to reach the two-parameter quantum Cramér-Rao bound, and how the dissipative preparation scheme is compatible with current experiments.

Mamaev, Mikhail [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Monte Carlo Simulations of Crystal Defects in Open Ensembles

Zero- and two-dimensional crystal defects form in open statistical ensembles, such as the grand canonical, that are usually inaccessible with conventional simulation techniques. This longstanding challenge is overcome with a new Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method that samples energy-biased gradual transformations. In conclusion, the method enables free energy calculations for nonideal point defects and the direct prediction of finite-temperature interface structures.

Grain boundaries↗

DOE OSTI2026

Downscaled Daily 1 km Climate Data (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) for Southeast Texas. Full ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 climate projections at 1 km daily resolution.

For the SETx-UIFL, the daily NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset climate projections were downscaled from approximately 27 km to 1 km. The SETx dataset provides very high-resolution climate data for the historical period (1950–2014) and future scenarios derived from CMIP6 global models under the four Tier 1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1.26, 2.45, 3.70, and 5.85), developed for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. A subset of ten NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models was selected to represent a balance of model families, climate sensitivities, and availability across scenarios, ensuring a diverse and reliable ensemble for regional analysis. Selected models: BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-MM. Daily variables downscaled include tasmax, tasmin, tas, pr, hurs, huss, rsds, rlds, and sfcWind.

Persad, Geeta↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

WTK-LED: The WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

To satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have, we aimed at developing an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, named WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), which is a meteorological dataset providing time series every 5 min and 2 km, including model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point so that users are provided with a range of possible wind speeds every 2 km. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: 1) Numerical simulations covering the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, with high-resolution data being available for 3 years (2018-2020). 2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratories covering the North American continent, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km dataset covering 20 years, from 2001-2020. 3) Specific long-term,high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the US coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set. This report focuses on a description of the land-based WTK-LED for CONUS, Hawaii, and Alaska, for the 3-year 2-km/5-min dataset and the 20-year 4-km/hourly dataset, as well as the uncertainty quantification method. We also provide limited validation results. Based on our results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing ensemble NV − spin properties of fluorescent diamond microparticles by systematic low pressure high temperature annealing

Low pressure high temperature annealing is a means for driving nitrogen and defect diffusion in diamond to reduce internal lattice damage without the need for technically complicated high-pressure cells. Herein, we perform a systematic time (5, 15, and 30 min) and temperature (1200 °C–1800 °C) study of effects of low-pressure high temperature annealing on photoluminescence, spin concentrations, and spin relaxation properties of NV centers in ca. 3 μm synthetic type 1b diamond particles. Annealing in the temperature range of ca. 1400 °C–1700 °C for even 5 min leads to a higher optically detected magnetic resonance contrast as compared to standard annealing at 900 °C for 2 h. Particles annealed at 1700 °C for 5 min exhibit a contrast close to about 13% as compared to about 9% for those annealed at 900 °C for 2 h. A reduction in the zero-field splitting strain parameter from E ≈ 4.5 MHz to ≈ 2.5 MHz and spectral linewidth from Δν ≈ 7 MHz to ≈ 4 MHz are observed even after 5 min annealing at 1700 °C. Improvements in these spectral parameters resulted in a roughly 2-fold reduction in the noise level of temperature monitoring experiment utilizing an ensemble of NV centers in the particles. Annealing in the temperature range of 1600 °C for 15 or 30 min or 1700 °C for 5 min resulted in NV T 1 relaxation times approaching ca. 5 ms typically observed for bulk diamond. Quantitative electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) allowed for estimations of thermal activation energies of paramagnetic center annihilation. Monitoring the primary defect concentration (P1 and other defects with half integer spins) and utilizing second order kinetic modeling, an activation energy of 3.63 ± 0.28 eV was estimated. Alternatively, using the NV half field EPR signal and first order kinetic modeling, a similar activation energy 3.89 ± 0.29 eV was estimated.

NV centers↗