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At least 253 records · Page 14

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DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing qubit control pulses for state preparation

In the burgeoning field of quantum computing, the precise design and optimization of quantum pulses are essential for enhancing qubit operation fidelity. This study focuses on refining the pulse engineering techniques for superconducting qubits, employing a detailed analysis of square and Gaussian pulse envelopes under various approximation schemes. We evaluated the effects of coherent errors induced by naive pulse designs. Furthermore, we identified the sources of these errors in the Hamiltonian model’s approximation level. We mitigated these errors through adjustments to the external driving frequency and pulse durations, thus implementing a pulse scheme with stroboscopic error reduction. Our results demonstrate that these refined pulse strategies improve performance and reduce coherent errors. Moreover, the techniques developed herein are applicable across different quantum architectures, such as ion-trap, atomic, and photonic systems.

Chirp modulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Noise Constraints on Sensitivity Scaling in Quantum Nonlinear Metrology

Quantum-enhanced metrology surpasses classical metrology by improving estimation precision scaling with a resource 𝑁 (e.g., particle number or energy) from 1/√𝑁 to 1/𝑁. Through the use of nonlinear effects, Roy and Braunstein [Exponentially enhanced quantum metrology, Phys. Rev. Lett. 100, 220501 (2008)] derived a 1/𝑁 2 scaling. However, later works argued this exponential improvement is unphysical and that even modest gains, like 1/𝑁 2 , may vanish under noise. We show that, in the presence of small errors, the nonlinear interactions enabling metrological enhancement induce emergent errors. Here, the errors propagate through the sensing protocol and are magnified proportional to any intended nonlinear enhancement. We identify a critical value of the parameter to be estimated, for a fixed error, below which the emergent errors can be avoided.

Quantum Fisher information↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increasing the Measured Effective Quantum Volume with Zero Noise Extrapolation

Quantum volume is a full-stack benchmark for near-term quantum computers. It quantifies the largest size of a square circuit which can be executed on the target device with reasonable fidelity. Error mitigation is a set of techniques intended to remove the effects of noise present in the computation of noisy quantum computers when computing an expectation value of interest. Effective quantum volume is a proposed metric that applies error mitigation to the quantum volume protocol to evaluate the effectiveness not only of the target device but also of the error mitigation algorithm. Digital zero-noise extrapolation is an error mitigation technique that estimates the noiseless expectation value using circuit folding to amplify errors by known scale factors and then extrapolating computed expectation values to the zero-noise limit. Here we demonstrate that zero-noise extrapolation, with global and local unitary folding with fractional scale factors, in conjunction with dynamical decoupling, can increase the effective quantum volume over the vendor-measured quantum volume. Specifically, we measure the effective quantum volume of four IBM Quantum superconducting processor units, obtaining values that are larger than the vendor-measured quantum volume on each device. This is the first such increase reported.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recommendations for Minimum Required Diagnostics Information

The rapid growth of electrified transportation, including light- and medium-duty electric vehicles (EVs) as a mobility solution requires a reliable EV-charging infrastructure. To advance charging reliability, the ChargeX Consortium reports “Recommendations for Minimum Required Error Codes for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure” and “Implementation Guide for Minimum Required Error Codes in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure” provided recommendations for a set of minimum required error codes (MRECs), their functional and responsibility classifications, and a guide for their implementation, using Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP) versions 1.6J4 and 2.0.1.5 These reports outline a recommended practice for consistent error reporting and interpretation, which is essential for communicating issues uniformly across the complex and diverse EV-charging ecosystem. However, MRECs are just one part of diagnosing issues; another critical part is obtaining enough information about the current state and performance of the various charging components to identify root causes for each of the error codes. This additional diagnostics data can be used by technicians or automated systems to understand the context around an issue, allowing for timely resolution, decreased maintenance costs, and increased charging reliability. During everyday operations, data are regularly collected and analyzed across the ecosystem. Although sharing of all that available data would be great for diagnostics, concerns on data ownership, privacy, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) intellectual property pose a challenge. To overcome this obstacle, this report proposes a set of minimum required diagnostic information (MRDI) and recommends that the industry implement these uniformly across the North American EV charging ecosystem. MRDI provides a means to exchange only data deemed necessary for root cause determination.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced MPM framework with multipatch isogeometric analysis for geotechnical applications

Achieving stable stress solutions at large strains using the Material Point Method (MPM) is challenging due to the accumulation of errors associated with geometry discretization, cell-crossing noise, and volumetric locking. Several simplified attempts exist in the literature to mitigate these errors, including higher-order frameworks. However, the stability of the MPM solution in such frameworks has been limited to simple geometries and the single-phase formulation (i.e., neglecting pore fluid). Although never explored, multipatch isogeometric analysis offers desirable qualities to simulate complex geometries while mitigating errors in the MPM. The degree of required high-order spatial integration has also never been investigated to infer a minimum limit for the stability of the stress solution in MPM. This paper presents a general-purpose numerical framework for simulating stable stresses in porous media, capturing both near incompressibility and multiphase interactions. First, the numerical framework is presented considering Non-Uniform Rational B-splines (NURBS) to perform isogeometric analysis (IGA) in MPM. Additionally, a volumetric strain smoothing algorithm is used to alleviate errors associated with volumetric locking. Second, the manifestation of cell-crossing errors is assessed via a series of problems with orders ranging from linear to cubic interpolation functions. Third, the use of NURBS is investigated and verified for problems with circular geometries. Finally, multipatch analysis is deployed to simulate plane strain and 3D penetration in soils, considering nearly incompressible elastoplastic (total stress) analysis and fully-coupled hydro-mechanical (effective stress) analysis. The stability of the solution is also analyzed for different constitutive models. From the results, it can be concluded that the framework using cubic interpolation functions with strain smoothing is the most convenient, presenting stable stress solutions for a broad range of multiphase geotechnical applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ARC physics basis–magnetohydrodynamics

ARC is designed to produce 400 ⁢MW of net electricity and prove the commercial feasibility of a fusion power plant. In order to achieve this goal ARC has to operate with optimal core performance in a stationary scenario that minimises wear on the first wall and divertor. This requires avoiding or mitigating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities which have the potential to not only degrade the plasma core but also lead to deleterious transient heat loads on plasma facing components. Therefore, this work aims at characterising the MHD stability of the high performance ARC scenario and inform the design of error field correction coils. Firstly, simulations of vertical displacement events show that an in-vessel coil is not needed and instead the poloidal shaping coils can be used to control vertical stability. These simulations also inform the demands on the corresponding coil power supplies. Stability analysis of the ideal kink mode with or without a conducting wall and kinetic effects suggests that the ARC baseline scenario operates deeply in the stable region. Using RDCON, tearing modes at the 𝑚/𝑛 =2/1 and 3/2 surfaces (with poloidal mode number 𝑚, and toroidal mode number 𝑛) are shown to be linearly stable, and including thermal transport effects in the rational surfaces lead to further stabilisation. However, other transient plasma instabilities can seed neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs). The marginally stable width of NTMs in ARC strongly depends on the internal inductance and can fall below 0.1% of the normalised poloidal flux. Furthermore, an empirical cross-machine model of the 𝑛 =1 error field leading to a disruption predicts a critical error field larger than SPARC but smaller than ITER. Three-dimensional coils can be designed with the Generalised Purturbed Equilbium Code based on a simple model that calculates the maximum correctable error field that is limited by the neoclassical toroidal viscosity torque. Broad scans of different coil geometries identify a set of 2 rows of off-midplane coils to be a suitable solution. It is also determined that such a set of three-dimensional coils is capable of correcting 𝑛 =2 error fields to some degree and creating strong enough 𝑛 =2 or 𝑛 =3 edge resonant perturbation fields for the suppression of edge-localised modes at reasonable coil currents. The final design of the first ARC will be further informed by results from SPARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

How Representative Are Uncrewed Aircraft System Measurements of the Convective Boundary Layer?

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) demonstrate significant potential for filling data gaps in the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the extent to which UAS observations—typically vertical profiles taken over 15 min—are representative of the boundary layer as a whole remains poorly characterized. Using large eddy simulations (LES) of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL), we quantify random errors in UAS measurements that occur due to insufficient statistical convergence of the time average to the true ensemble mean. Random errors in first‐order moments increase as the CBL becomes increasingly unstable, and are largest near the surface for most quantities. Errors are on the order of 2–6 m for wind speed, 15–60 for wind direction, 0.2–3 K for potential temperature, and 0.1–1 g for specific humidity, with errors in turbulent fluxes on the order of 50%–100%. Sampling strategies that mitigate random errors are discussed in light of our results.

Greene, Brian R. [Now at Verisk Extreme Event Solu↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hyperfine interactions for small systems including transition-metal elements using self-interaction corrected density-functional theory

The interactions between the electronic magnetic moment and the nuclear spin moment, i.e., magnetic hyperfine (HF) interactions, play an important role in understanding electronic properties of magnetic systems and in realizing platforms for quantum information science applications. We investigate the HF interactions for atomic systems and small molecules, including Ti or Mn, by using Fermi–Löwdin orbital (FLO) based self-interaction corrected (SIC) density-functional theory. We calculate the Fermi contact (FC) and spin-dipole terms for the systems within the local density approximation (LDA) in the FLO-SIC method and compare them with the corresponding values without SIC within the LDA and generalized-gradient approximation (GGA), as well as experimental data. For the moderately heavy atomic systems (atomic number Z ≤ 25), we find that the mean absolute error of the FLO-SIC FC term is about 27 MHz (percentage error is 6.4%), while that of the LDA and GGA results is almost double that. Therefore, in this case, the FLO-SIC results are in better agreement with the experimental data. For the non-transition-metal molecules, the FLO-SIC FC term has the mean absolute error of 68 MHz, which is comparable to both the LDA and GGA results without SIC. For the seven transition-metal-based molecules, the FLO-SIC mean absolute error is 59 MHz, whereas the corresponding LDA and GGA errors are 101 and 82 MHz, respectively. Therefore, for the transition-metal-based molecules, the FLO-SIC FC term agrees better with experiment than the LDA and GGA results. We observe that the FC term from the FLO-SIC calculation is not necessarily larger than that from the LDA or GGA for all the considered systems due to the core spin polarization, in contrast to the expectation that SIC would increase the spin density near atomic nuclei, leading to larger FC terms.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving discrepancies in bang-time predictions for indirect-drive ICF experiments on the NIF: Insights from the Build-A-Hohlraum campaign

This study investigated discrepancies between measured and simulated x-ray drive in Indirect-Drive Inertial Confinement Fusion (ID-ICF) hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility. Despite advances in radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, a consistent “drive deficit” remains. Experimentally measured ID-ICF capsule bang-times are systematically 400–700 ps later than simulations predict. The Build-A-Hohlraum (BAH) campaign explored potential causes for this discrepancy by systematically varying hohlraum features, including laser entrance hole (LEH) windows, capsules, and gas fills. Overall, the agreement between simulated and experimental x-ray drive was found to be largely unaffected by these changes. The data allow us to exclude some hypotheses put forward to potentially explain the discrepancy. Errors in the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) atomic modeling, errors in the modeling of LEH closure, and errors due to a lack of plasma species mix physics in simulations are shown to be inconsistent with our measurements. Instead, the data support the hypothesis that errors in NLTE emission modeling are a significant contributor to the discrepancy. X-ray emission in the 2–4 keV range is found to be approximately 30% lower than in simulations. This is accompanied by higher than predicted electron temperatures in the gold bubble region, pointing to errors in non-LTE modeling. Introducing an opacity multiplier of 0.87 on energy groups above 1.8 keV improves agreement with experimental data, reducing the bang-time discrepancy from 300 to 100 ps. These results underscore the need for refined NLTE opacity models to enhance the predictive power of hohlraum simulations.

Band emission↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deployment of Traditional and Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction in the CTF Thermal-Hydraulics Code

Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the transition from nucleate to film boiling, where heat transfer to the working fluid can rapidly deteriorate. Accurate CHF prediction is essential for efficiency, safety, and preventing equipment damage, particularly in nuclear reactors. Although widely used, empirical correlations frequently exhibit discrepancies when compared to experimental data, limiting their reliability in diverse operational conditions. Traditional machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated potential for CHF prediction but often suffer from limited interpretability, data scarcity, and insufficient knowledge of physical principles. Hybrid model approaches, which combine data-driven ML with base models, mitigate these concerns by incorporating prior knowledge of the domain. This study integrates an externally trained purely data-driven ML model and two hybrid models (using the Biasi and Bowring CHF correlations) within the CTF subchannel code via a custom Fortran framework. Performance was evaluated using two validation cases: a subset of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CHF database and the Bennett dryout experiments. In both cases, the hybrid models demonstrated significantly lower error metrics compared to conventional empirical correlations, with the best models often reducing relative error by about 5 percentage points. The pure ML model achieved comparable accuracy, outperforming the hybrid Biasi model in the NRC test case (3.3% versus 5.5% relative error) but exhibiting slightly higher error against the hybrid Bowring model in the Bennett test case (7.7% versus 6.1%). Trend analysis of error parity indicated that ML-based models reduced the tendency for CHF overprediction, improving overall accuracy. These results demonstrate that ML-based CHF models can be effectively integrated into subchannel codes and could potentially increase performance compared to conventional methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phase diagram of the three-dimensional subsystem toric code

Subsystem quantum error-correcting codes typically involve measuring a sequence of noncommuting parity check operators. They can sometimes exhibit greater fault tolerance than conventional codes, which use commuting checks. However, unlike subspace codes, it is unclear if subsystem codes—in particular their advantages—can be understood in terms of ground-state properties of a physical Hamiltonian. In this paper, we address this question for the three-dimensional subsystem toric code (3D STC), as recently constructed by Kubica and Vasmer [], which exhibits single-shot error correction. Motivated by a conjectured relation between single-shot properties and thermal stability, we study the zero- and finite-temperature phases of an associated noncommuting Hamiltonian. By mapping the Hamiltonian model to a pair of 3D Z 2 gauge theories coupled by a kinetic constraint, we find various phases at zero temperature, all separated by first-order transitions: There are 3D toric code-like phases with deconfined point-like excitations in the bulk, and there are phases with a confined bulk supporting a 2D toric code on the surface when appropriate boundary conditions are chosen. The latter is similar to the surface topological order present in 3D STC. However, the similarities between the single-shot correction in 3D STC and the confined phases are only partial: they share the same sets of degrees of freedom, but they are governed by different dynamical rules. Instead, we argue that the process of single-shot error correction can more suitably be associated with a path (rather than a point) in the zero-temperature phase diagram, a perspective, which inspires alternative measurement sequences enabling single-shot error correction. Moreover, since none of the above-mentioned phases survives at nonzero temperature, the single-shot error-correction property of the code does not imply thermal stability of the associated Hamiltonian phase. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Li, Yaodong (ORCID:0000000337421944)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diagnostics of Mixed-State Topological Order and Breakdown of Quantum Memory

Topological quantum memory can protect information against local errors up to finite error thresholds. Such thresholds are usually determined based on the success of decoding algorithms rather than the intrinsic properties of the mixed states describing corrupted memories. Here we provide an intrinsic characterization of the breakdown of topological quantum memory, which both gives a bound on the performance of decoding algorithms and provides examples of topologically distinct mixed states. We employ three information-theoretical quantities that can be regarded as generalizations of the diagnostics of ground-state topological order, and serve as a definition for topological order in error-corrupted mixed states. We consider the topological contribution to entanglement negativity and two other metrics based on quantum relative entropy and coherent information. In the concrete example of the two-dimensional (2D) Toric code with local bit-flip and phase errors, we map three quantities to observables in 2D classical spin models and analytically show they all undergo a transition at the same error threshold. This threshold is an upper bound on that achieved in any decoding algorithm and is indeed saturated by that in the optimal decoding algorithm for the Toric code. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking and Fidelity Response Theory of High-Fidelity Rydberg Entangling Gates

The fidelity of entangling operations is a key figure of merit in quantum information processing, especially in the context of quantum error correction. High-fidelity entangling gates in neutral atoms have seen remarkable advancement recently. A full understanding of error sources and their respective contributions to gate infidelity will enable the prediction of fundamental limits on quantum gates in neutral atom platforms with realistic experimental constraints. In this work, we implement the time-optimal Rydberg controlled-Z (CZ) gate, design a circuit to benchmark its fidelity, and achieve a fidelity, averaged over symmetric input states, of 0.9971 ( 5 ) , downward corrected for leakage error, which together with our recent work [Nature 634, 321–327 (2024)] forms a new state of the art for neutral atoms. The remaining infidelity is explained by an error model, consistent with our experimental results over a range of gate speeds, with varying contributions from different error sources. Further, we develop a fidelity response theory to efficiently predict infidelity from laser noise with nontrivial power spectral densities and derive scaling laws of infidelity with gate speed. Besides its capability of predicting gate fidelity, we also utilize the fidelity response theory to compare and optimize gate protocols, to learn laser frequency noise, and to study the noise response for quantum simulation tasks. Finally, we predict that a CZ gate fidelity of ≳ 0.999 is feasible with realistic experimental upgrades. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Tsai, Richard Bing-Shiun (ORCID:0000000286758677)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Shuttling Majorana zero modes in disordered and noisy topological superconductors

The braiding of Majorana zero modes (MZMs) forms the fundamental building block for topological quantum computation. Braiding protocols which involve the physical exchange of MZMs are typically envisioned on a network of topological superconducting wires. An important component of these protocols is the transport of MZMs, which can be performed by using electric gates to locally tune sections of the wire between topologically trivial and nontrivial phases. In this work, we numerically simulate this transport by tuning a single section of a superconducting wire which contains either disorder (uncorrelated and correlated) or noise. We focus on the impact of these additional effects on the diabatic error, which describes unwanted transitions between the ground state and excited states. We show that the behavior of the average diabatic error is predominantly controlled by the statistics of the minimum bulk energy gap which is suppressed in the presence of disorder. The increase in diabatic error can be several orders of magnitude and is most deleterious when the disorder correlation length is a finite fraction of the transport distance and negligible when these lengths are far apart. In the presence of noise, the diabatic error is significantly enhanced due to optical transitions which depend on the minimum bulk energy gap as well as the frequency modes present in the noise. The results presented here serve to further characterize the diabatic error in disordered and noisy settings, which are important considerations in practical implementations of physical braiding schemes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Hybrid Learning Techniques for Scientific Data Compression

Data compression is becoming critical for storing scientific data because many scientific applications need to store large amounts of data and post process this data for scientific discovery. Unlike image and video compression algorithms that limit errors to primary data (PD), scientists require compression techniques that accurately preserve derived quantities of interest (QoIs). Here, this article presents a physics-informed compression technique implemented as an end-to-end, scalable, GPU-based pipeline for data compression that addresses this requirement. Our hybrid compression technique combines machine learning techniques and standard compression methods. Specifically, we combine an autoencoder, an error-bounded lossy compressor to provide guarantees on raw data error, and a constraint satisfaction post-processing step to preserve the QoIs within a minimal error (generally less than floating point error). The effectiveness of the data compression pipeline is demonstrated by compressing nuclear fusion simulation data generated by a large-scale fusion code, XGC, which produces hundreds of terabytes of data in a single day. Our approach works within the ADIOS framework and results in compression by a factor of more than 150 while requiring only a few percent of the computational resources necessary for generating the data, making the overall approach highly effective for practical scenarios.

ITER↗