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Changes in Oculomotor Behavior and PVT Reaction Time During One Night of Sleep Deprivation

INTRODUCTION: The Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) is a widely used objective measure of sustained attention, alertness, and fatigue. Previous studies consistently show that prolonged wakefulness and disrupted sleep patterns lead to increased lapses of attention and slower reaction times. These findings have critical implications for various professions, including healthcare, aviation, transportation safety, and spaceflight. In this study, we employed linear mixed models (LMM) to investigate hourly-measured 5-minute PVT reaction times during one night of total sleep deprivation. Our goal was to characterize the contribution of homeostatic sleep pressure (time awake) and circadian phase (salivary melatonin levels) on the dynamics of PVT reaction time. MATERIALS & METHODS: Data from twelve human participants were used in the analysis. Participants were healthy non-smokers, aged 18 and 40, with normal sleep habits defined as Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index scores < 5, and Morningness – Eveningness Questionnaire scores > 42 and < 58, respectively. Participants followed a constant-routine protocol and arrived at the NASA sleep laboratory approximately 1 to 2 hours after their habitual waking time. Tympanic temperature was measured every 30 min to provide a real-time estimate of circadian phase. Participants were required to stay awake throughout the laboratory experiment, which continued until their tympanic temperature had returned to baseline levels. This approach ensured that we could capture each participant's circadian trough and recovery, typically occurring between 24 and 26 hours after waking. The PVT and saliva melatonin were measured every hour, starting approximately from 3 hours after awakening. More information about the measurement protocol can be found in the publication by Stone et al. We used PVT reaction times between 100 and 10000 ms to calculate Reciprocal Reaction Times (RRTs). LMM models were employed to assess the contribution of time awake and saliva melatonin levels on changes in RRTs. Two models were created: the first model treated time awake as a fixed effect and the second model considered both the salivary melatonin level and time awake as fixed effects. Participants were included as a random effect in both models. We compared the models using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The models were computed using the 'lmer' function from the 'lme4' package in R, and LMM p-values were determined using Satterthwaite's method. RESULTS: We found that time awake had a statistically significant effect on PVT RRTs during one night of sleep deprivation [χ2 = 2132.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. In addition, the model including both saliva melatonin levels and time awake was statistically significantly better than one that uses just time awake [χ2 = 17.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: As expected, these preliminary results suggest that the time awake and circadian phase each contribute to performance reductions as measured by the PVT. Future analyses will explore the contributions of other factors to the model.

sleep deprivation↗
NASA NTRS1994

A preliminary evaluation of ocean topography from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission

We have analyzed 50 ten-day cycles of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data to evaluate the ocean dynamic topography and its temporal variations. We have employed data from both the U.S. and French altimeters along with the NASA precision orbits in this analysis. Errors in the diurnal and semidiurnal components of the Cartwright-Ray tide model have been significantly reduced using a correction developed from a combination of JGM-2 and OSU91A was employed, as well as a geoid model based solely on OSU91A. The long wavelengths of the comparisons to historical data, although geoid error still corrupts the dynamic topography for wavelengths shorter than 2500 km. The root mean square (RMS) variability is similar to previous results from Geosat, with bakground 'noise' approaching 3 cm RMS. The computed annual and semiannual variations are also similar to previous Geosat results, although the hemispheric distribution of the annual heating cycle is much better presented in the T/P results. They also compare reasonably well with the Levitus hydrographic compilation in the northern hemisphere, although the T/P variations generally have larger amplitudes. Ten-day average maps of variations in sea level compare well with simulations measurements at ocean tide gauges, with RMS differences of less than 4 cm and correlations greater than 0.6 for most of the island gauges. Time-longitude plots of these sea level variations at different latitudes in the Pacific clearly show the presence of equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby waves, with the wave speeds agreeing well with theoretical and observed values. Measurement of variations in global sea level over cycles 2-51 have an RMS variability of 6.3 mm and a rate of change of -3.5 +/- 8 mm/yr, the uncertainty primarily due to insufficient averaging of the interannual and periodic sea level variations. These results show that the accuracy of the T/P measurements of sea level has dramatically improved over previous missions, with estimated time variable errors of 4 cm or less. Although geographically correlated orbit errors have also been reduced to the few centimeter level, further improvement in determinations of the mean dynamic topography will be difficult to obtain until a more accurate model of the marine geoid is available.

Nerem, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An encoder–decoder LSTM-based EMPC framework applied to a building HVAC system

Numerous studies have demonstrated the benefit of economic model predictive control (EMPC) applied to building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, the construction and training of predictive models for building HVAC systems are widely recognized as a key technological barrier preventing large-scale adoption of EMPC for buildings. In this work, an encoder–decoder long short-term memory-based EMPC framework is developed. The key advantage of the approach is that a model may be automatically generated from a list of inputs and outputs. From the definition of inputs and outputs, the constructed model may be trained and automatically embedded into the EMPC framework for real-time estimation and control. The overall end-to-end EMPC framework from model training to on-line estimation and control are described. To this end, the encoder–decoder model provides a natural framework for state estimation (encoder), which is required to provide an initial condition for the predictive model of EMPC (decoder). Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated closed-loop system consists of a building zone from a multi-zone building, which is served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. For the HVAC example considered, the trained encoder–decoder model can predict the indoor air temperature and HVAC sensible cooling rate of a building zone over a two-day horizon with high accuracy. Overall, we find that considering a time-of-use electric rate structure, the EMPC, which manipulates the zone temperature setpoint, can reduce the HVAC power consumption cost relative to keeping the zone temperature setpoint at its maximum value (i.e., minimum energy approach).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2015

Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground- based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms as well as tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. This new method analyzes the undelayed delivery accuracy at meter points in order to understand changes of desired flow rates as well as enabling definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at the meter points. This enables aircraft to meet their STAs while performing high precision arrivals. The research presents a possible implementation that would allow delivery performance of current tools to be estimated and delivery accuracy requirements for future tools to be defined, which allows analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and the FAA's Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA is a deployed system that generates scheduled time-of-arrival constraints for en- route air traffic controllers in the US. This new method of automated analysis provides a repeatable evaluation of the delay metrics for current day traffic, new releases of TMA, implementation of different tools, and across different airspace environments. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA-TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TMA systems at all ARTCCs in the nation. The OTTR system generates daily reports concerning ATC status, intent and actions. Due to its availability, ease of use, and vast collection of data across several airspaces it was determined that the OTTR data set would be the best method to utilize moving forward with this analysis. The particular variables needed for further analysis were determined along with the necessary OTTR reports, by working closely with the repository team additional analysis reports were developed that provided key ETA and STA information at the freeze horizon. One major benefit of the OTTR data is that using the correct reports the data across several airports could be analyzed over large periods of time. The OTTR data processes the TBFM data daily and is stored in various formats across several airspaces. This allowed us to develop our own parsing methods and raw data processing that would not rely on other computationally expensive tools that perform more in depth analysis of similar sets of data. The majority of this work consisted of the development of the ability to filter flights to create a subset of flights that could be considered undelayed, which is defined as a flight at the freeze horizon with an ETA and STA difference that was minimal or close to zero. This was a broad method that allowed the consideration of a large data set which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bush Intercontinental, Denver International, Los Angeles International, and Phoenix Sky Harbor.

delivery accuracy↗
NASA NTRS2016

Estimation of Daily PM(sub 10) Concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) Using Finely Resolved Satellite Data, Land Use Variables and Meteorology

Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM10measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM10concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM10=0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM10levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM10concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particulate Matter/analysis↗
NASA NTRS2003

Earth-Space Link Attenuation Estimation via Ground Radar Kdp

A method of predicting attenuation on microwave Earth/spacecraft communication links, over wide areas and under various atmospheric conditions, has been developed. In the area around the ground station locations, a nearly horizontally aimed polarimetric S-band ground radar measures the specific differential phase (Kdp) along the Earth-space path. The specific attenuation along a path of interest is then computed by use of a theoretical model of the relationship between the measured S-band specific differential phase and the specific attenuation at the frequency to be used on the communication link. The model includes effects of rain, wet ice, and other forms of precipitation. The attenuation on the path of interest is then computed by integrating the specific attenuation over the length of the path. This method can be used to determine statistics of signal degradation on Earth/spacecraft communication links. It can also be used to obtain real-time estimates of attenuation along multiple Earth/spacecraft links that are parts of a communication network operating within the radar coverage area, thereby enabling better management of the network through appropriate dynamic routing along the best combination of links.

Bolen, Steven M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

C-AAC Occupancy and Transition Out of CMR [Slides]

This in-depth evaluation was performed in order to gather information for a plan and time estimate of C-AAC space cleanout and handover to the CMR facility once programmatic operations are relocated to other facilities. C-AAC space ownership in CMR wings 1, 5, 7, and 9 have been identified down to the Team level (see subsequent slides and other supporting documentation). This plan assumes that C-AAC activities that support Pu sustainment efforts (Wings 1, 5, and 7) are relocated to PF-4 and RLUOB in mid/end FY24 and current projects in Wing 9 are completed by the end of FY24/mid FY25 (cessation of C-AAC programmatic operations in CMR). This plan assumes that no other programmatic activities are initiated in CMR (e.g. MOX fuel rods). Timing and order of cleanout of programmatic laboratory and office spaces in wings 1, 5, and 7 is dependent upon analytical chemistry operations being established and relocated to RLUOB and PF-4. Timing and order of cleanout of programmatic laboratory and office spaces in wing 9 is dependent upon completion of current projects (MR&R, Thermo Fisher drum, etc.). As C-AAC Teams move out of the CMR building and into other facilities, the spaces occupied by those teams are planned to be targeted for in depth cleanout in the order that teams and capabilities are relocated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Interplanetary Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

Although more than ten thousand coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are produced during each solar cycle at the Sun, only a small fraction hits the Earth. Only a small fraction of the Earth-directed CMEs ultimately arrive at Earth depending on their interaction with the solar wind and other large-scale structures such as coronal holes and CMEs. The interplanetary propagation is essentially controlled by the drag force because the propelling force and the solar gravity are significant only near the Sun. Combined remote-sensing and in situ observations have helped us estimate the influence of the solar wind on the propagation of CMEs. However, these measurements have severe limitations because the remote-sensed and in-situ observations correspond to different portions of the CME. Attempts to overcome this problem are made in two ways: the first is to model the CME and get the space speed of the CME, which can be compared with the in situ speed. The second method is to use stereoscopic observation so that the remote-sensed and in-situ observations make measurements on the Earth-arriving part of CMEs. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission observed several such CMEs, which helped understand the interplanetary evolution of these CMEs and to test earlier model results. This paper discusses some of these issues and updates the CME/shock travel time estimates for a number of CMEs.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization and controllability of radiated power via extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity plasmas in DIII-D

Experiments with extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity shapes in DIII-D achieved radiated power fractions (relative to input power) of up to ≈85% total radiation and ≈55% core radiation in steady-operating conditions. The relationship between core and total radiation was sensitive to impurity species and input power. Attempts to reach higher radiation levels via higher impurity flows resulted in radiative collapse disruptions. Nitrogen, neon, argon, and krypton were tested. Injection was by gas puffing, usually controlled by feeding back real-time estimates for core or total radiating fractions ($P_\textrm{rad} / P_\textrm{input}$). Argon and krypton were controlled by feeding back total radiating fraction, whereas neon was controlled by feeding back the core radiating fraction, due to the lower efficiency of neon as a divertor radiator. Nitrogen flows were pre-programmed. Reasonable total $P_\textrm{rad}$ control target following was achieved with argon or krypton. Control was more challenging with the neon/core radiation configuration, which was more prone to slow response and overshooting of the control target. Poor particle removal contributed to the control challenge: neon particle inventory within the last closed flux surface was roughly constant for up to 1 s (the longest duration tested) after neon injection was halted. However, separate experiments with laser-blow off of non-recycling impurities measured a short impurity confinement time, on the scale of the energy confinement time of ∼100 ms. Modeling with the Aurora impurity transport simulation matched experimental neon density profiles with full recycling (R = 1.0) and weak pumping but predicted rapid decreases in neon inventory if pumping were increased or recycling decreased. This indicates that changes outside the confined plasma (adding a well-placed pump) would improve controllability for all highly recycling species.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Dynamical Evolution of the Earth-Moon Progenitors: Motivation and Methodology - 1

The Giant Impact Hypothesis was introduced in the mid-1970's after consideration of results from the Apollo Moon missions. This hypothesis best explains the similarity in elemental proportions in lunar and terrestrial rocks, the depletion of lunar volatiles, the lack of lunar iron. and the large angular momentum in the Earth-Moon system. Comparison between the radiometric ages of inclusions in the most primitive meteorites and those of inclusions in the oldest lunar rocks and the differentiation age of Earth suggests that the Earth-Moon system formed about 100 Myr after the oldest meteorites. In addition, the age of the famous Martian meteorite ALH84001 and an early solidification time estimated from the Martian crust, suggest that the inner Solar System was fairly clear of large bodies about 10 Myr after the oldest meteorites formed. Thus, the 'standard model' suggests that for a period of several tens of millions of years the terrestrial planet region had few. if any, lunar-sized bodies and there were five terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, the two progenitors of the Earth-Moon system, and Mars. To simulate the dynamics of the Solar System before the hypothesized Moon-forming impact, we are integrating the Solar System with the Earth-Moon system replaced by two bodies in heliocentric orbits between Venus and Mars. The total (orbital) angular momentum of the Earth-Moon progenitors is that of the present Earth-Moon system, and their total mass is that of the Earth-Moon system. We are looking at ranges in mass ratio and initial values for eccentricity, inclination. and semi-major axis. We are using the SYMBA integrator to integrate these systems until a collision occurs or a time of 200 Myr elapses. Results are presented in a companion paper.

Lissuer, Jack↗
NASA NTRS1984

Design of infrasound-detection system via adaptive LMSTDE algorithm

A proposed solution to an aviation safety problem is based on passive detection of turbulent weather phenomena through their infrasonic emission. This thesis describes a system design that is adequate for detection and bearing evaluation of infrasounds. An array of four sensors, with the appropriate hardware, is used for the detection part. Bearing evaluation is based on estimates of time delays between sensor outputs. The generalized cross correlation (GCC), as the conventional time-delay estimation (TDE) method, is first reviewed. An adaptive TDE approach, using the least mean square (LMS) algorithm, is then discussed. A comparison between the two techniques is made and the advantages of the adaptive approach are listed. The behavior of the GCC, as a Roth processor, is examined for the anticipated signals. It is shown that the Roth processor has the desired effect of sharpening the peak of the correlation function. It is also shown that the LMSTDE technique is an equivalent implementation of the Roth processor in the time domain. A LMSTDE lead-lag model, with a variable stability coefficient and a convergence criterion, is designed.

Khalaf, C. S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Sea State Estimation for Wave Energy Converter Control via Machine Learning

Wave energy converters (WECs) harness the untapped power of ocean waves to generate renewable energy, offering a promising solution to sustainable energy. An optimal WEC control strategy is essential to maximize power capture that dynamically adjusts system parameters in response to rapidly changing sea states. This study presents a novel control approach that leverages neural networks to estimate sea states from onboard WEC measurements such as position, velocity, and force. Using a point absorber WEC device as a test platform, our proposed approach estimates sea states in real-time and subsequently adjusts PID controller gains to maximize energy extraction. Simulation results across diverse sea conditions demonstrate that our strategy eliminates the need for external wave monitoring equipment while maintaining power capture efficiency. The results show that our neural network-based control technique can improve power capture by 25.6% while significantly reducing system complexity. This approach offers a practical alternative for WEC deployments where direct wave measurements are either infeasible or cost prohibitive.

PIDcontrol↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonunitary Variational Quantum Eigensolver with the Localized Active Space Method and Cost Mitigation

Accurately describing strongly correlated systems with affordable quantum resources remains a central challenge for quantum chemistry applications on near and intermediate term quantum computers. The localized active space self-consistent field (LASSCF) approximates the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) by generating active space-based wave functions within specific fragments while treating interfragment correlation with mean-field approach, hence is computationally less expensive. Hardware-efficient ansatzes (HEA) offer affordable and shallower circuits, yet they often fail to capture the necessary correlation. Previously, Jastrow-factor-inspired nonunitary qubit operators were proposed to use with HEA for variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) calculations (so-called nuVQE), as they do not increase circuit depths and recover correlation beyond the mean-field level for Hartree–Fock initial states. Here, in this study, we explore running nuVQE with LASSCF as the initial state. The method, named LAS-nuVQE, is shown to recover interfragment correlations, reach chemical accuracy with a small number of gates (<70) in both H 4 and square cyclobutadiene (C 4 H 4 ), and produces more accurate energetics than its HEA counterparts at all circuit depths. To further address the inherent symmetry-breaking in HEA, we implemented spin-constrained LAS-nuVQE to extend the capabilities of HEA further and show spin-pure results for square cyclobutadiene. We also mitigate the increased measurement overhead of nuVQE via Pauli grouping and shot-frugal sampling, reducing measurement costs by up to 2 orders of magnitude compared to ungrouped operator, and show that one can achieve better accuracy with a small number of shots (10 3–4 ) per one expectation value calculation compared to noiseless simulations with one or two orders of magnitude more shots. Finally, wall clock time estimates show that, with our measurement mitigation protocols, nuVQE becomes a cheaper and more accurate alternative than vanilla VQE with HEA. Taken together, these developments illustrate a practical pathway toward performing multireference chemical simulations with accuracy and affordable resources on today’s quantum hardware, achieving both accuracy and affordability in challenging correlated systems.

Wang, Qiaohong [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United State↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Unusual Reactivity of the Hydrated Electron with CO 2

Many questions remain about the reactions of the hydrated electron despite decades of study. Of particular note is the fact that they do not appear to follow the Marcus theory of electron transfer reactions, a feature that has yet to be explained. To investigate these issues, we use ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations to investigate a one of the better studied reactions, the hydrated electron reduction of CO 2 . The rate constant for the hydrated electron-CO 2 reaction complex to react to form CO 2 - is, for the first time, estimated from AIMD simulations. Results at 298 and 373 K show the rate constant is insensitive to temperature, consistent with the low measured activation energy for the reaction, and the implications of this behavior are examined. The sampling provided by the simulations yields insight into the reaction mechanism. The reaction is found to involve both solvent reorganization and changes in the carbon dioxide structure. The latter lead to significant vibrational excitation of the bending and symmetric stretch vibrations in the CO 2 - product, indicating the reaction is vibrationally nonadiabatic. The former is estimated from calculation of an approximate collective solvent coordinate and the free energy in this coordinate is determined. Furthermore, these results indicate that AIMD simulations can reasonably estimate hydrated electron reaction activation energies and provide new insight into the mechanism that can help illuminate the features of this unusual chemistry.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Citywide indoor air sampling mirrors wastewater and clinical for environmental surveillance of respiratory viruses

Wastewater surveillance of respiratory pathogens can provide timely estimates of viral activity and disease trends in a population. Indoor air surveillance could be used similarly with some advantages but remains largely unvalidated at the community -scale. Here, an indoor air surveillance program was employed as part of public health environmental surveillance in Chicago, Illinois, USA. Ten air samplers were placed in healthcare and congregate living settings across the city. Weekly air samples were evaluated for influenza A, influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus, and SARS -CoV-2 over two respiratory virus seasons (2023 -2025). Citywide, aggregated air sample positivity and viral load were closely correlated with local clinical case and wastewater surveillance data across all respiratory viruses. Virus trends in air data often preceded clinical and wastewater, although this varied across pathogens and respiratory virus seasons. Further, whole -genome sequencing of SARS -CoV-2 showed close correlation of variant proportions across all datasets. At the building -scale, air samples obtained from a single sampling device provided efficient respiratory virus surveillance, with respiratory pathogen levels mirroring citywide clinical surveillance data. These data demonstrate that air surveillance can provide respiratory virus case and variant trend data at a building or community -scale, serving as an alternative or complementary tool for public health environmental surveillance.

Wilton, Rosemarie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Candidate strongly lensed type Ia supernovae in the Zwicky Transient Facility archive

Gravitationally lensed type Ia supernovae (glSNe Ia) are unique astronomical tools that can be used to study cosmological parameters, distributions of dark matter, the astrophysics of the supernovae, and the intervening lensing galaxies themselves. A small number of highly magnified glSNe Ia have been discovered by ground-based telescopes such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), but simulations predict that a fainter, undetected population may also exist. We present a systematic search for glSNe Ia in the ZTF archive of alerts distributed from June 1 2019 to September 1 2022. Using the AMPEL platform, we developed a pipeline that distinguishes candidate glSNe Ia from other variable sources. Initial cuts were applied to the ZTF alert photometry (with constraints on the peak absolute magnitude and the distance to a catalogue-matched galaxy, as examples) before forced photometry was obtained for the remaining candidates. Additional cuts were applied to refine the candidates based on their light curve colours, lens galaxy colours, and the resulting parameters from fits to the SALT2 SN Ia template. The candidates were also cross-matched with the DESI spectroscopic catalogue. Seven transients were identified that passed all the cuts and had an associated galaxy DESI redshift, which we present as glSN Ia candidates. Although superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) cannot be fully rejected as contaminants, two events, ZTF19abpjicm and ZTF22aahmovu, are significantly different from typical SLSNe and their light curves can be modelled as two-image glSN Ia systems. From this two-image modelling, we estimate time delays of 22 ± 3 and 34 ± 1 days for the two events, respectively, which suggests that we have uncovered a population of glSNe Ia with longer time delays. The pipeline is efficient and sensitive enough to parse full alert streams. It is currently being applied to the live ZTF alert stream to identify and follow-up future candidates while active. This pipeline could be the foundation for glSNe Ia searches in future surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗