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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System

This presentation describes the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.

probability risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS1979

Evaluation Applied to Reliability Analysis of Reconfigurable, Highly Reliable, Fault-Tolerant, Computing Systems for Avionics

Emulation techniques are proposed as a solution to a difficulty arising in the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft. The difficulty, viz., the lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques are established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible, (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance, (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition, and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. The technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. The use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques.

Migneault, G. E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis

Autonomy is an increasingly important technology for robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft. An important motivation for developing onboard autonomy is to enable quick response to dynamic environment and situations, including fault conditions that a spacecraft may encounter. The reliability of such autonomous capabilities depends on the quality of their knowledge of a spacecraft’s health state. Model-based approaches to fault management, i.e. model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD), is one approach to continuously verify correct behavior in addition to diagnosing symptoms to estimate the spacecraft’s health state. The proper functioning of MBFD is dependent on 1) the quality of the model that is analyzed and compared to the outputs of onboard sensors to estimate the system’s health state, and 2) the correct functioning of the diagnosis engine that interrogates the model and compares its analysis to observed system behavior. We are currently developing Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to provide the necessary confidence that MBFD systems are correctly estimating the health of on-board spacecraft components and systems. Our work is intended to narrow the gap between the rapidly maturing field of ModelBased System Engineering (including MBFD) and the less-well understood area of identifying and applying appropriate V&V techniques to MBFD. Our effort is investigating three areas: 1) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic model, 2) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine in isolation, and 3) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine and model in combination. This paper describes the work we have completed in the first area. We describe our approach to selecting a system to be represented by a model, the approach to modeling the system, the verification approach we developed for the model, and the results of the verification activity. We conclude with a description of the work remaining in the last two areas, which will be addressed over the next two years.

Chung, Seung↗

NASA NTRS2012

Designing Fault-Injection Experiments for the Reliability of Embedded Systems

This paper considers the long-standing problem of conducting fault-injections experiments to establish the ultra-reliability of embedded systems. There have been extensive efforts in fault injection, and this paper offers a partial summary of the efforts, but these previous efforts have focused on realism and efficiency. Fault injections have been used to examine diagnostics and to test algorithms, but the literature does not contain any framework that says how to conduct fault-injection experiments to establish ultra-reliability. A solution to this problem integrates field-data, arguments-from-design, and fault-injection into a seamless whole. The solution in this paper is to derive a model reduction theorem for a class of semi-Markov models suitable for describing ultra-reliable embedded systems. The derivation shows that a tight upper bound on the probability of system failure can be obtained using only the means of system-recovery times, thus reducing the experimental effort to estimating a reasonable number of easily-observed parameters. The paper includes an example of a system subject to both permanent and transient faults. There is a discussion of integrating fault-injection with field-data and arguments-from-design.

White, Allan L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Stage Separation Failure: Model Based Diagnostics and Prognostics

Safety of the next-generation space flight vehicles requires development of an in-flight Failure Detection and Prognostic (FD&P) system. Development of such system is challenging task that involves analysis of many hard hitting engineering problems across the board. In this paper we report progress in the development of FD&P for the re-contact fault between upper stage nozzle and the inter-stage caused by the first stage and upper stage separation failure. A high-fidelity models and analytical estimations are applied to analyze the following sequence of events: (i) structural dynamics of the nozzle extension during the impact; (ii) structural stability of the deformed nozzle in the presence of the pressure and temperature loads induced by the hot gas flow during engine start up; and (iii) the fault induced thrust changes in the steady burning regime. The diagnostic is based on the measurements of the impact torque. The prognostic is based on the analysis of the correlation between the actuator signal and fault-induced changes in the nozzle structural stability and thrust.

Luchinsky, Dmitry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Topographic Slant Range Modeling and Fault Detection for Precision Planetary Landing

This work presents a novel landing site relative topographic measurement model for aslant range sensor being utilized for precision planetary landing operations. The measurement model accounts for the local terrain the slant range sensor captures and leverages knowledge of the estimated landing site provided by the navigation filter. Notably, in contrast to previous works, the new model does not rely on surface normal approximation, reducing the model’s sensitivity to noisy digital elevation maps which represent the local topography. In addition to the measurement model, this work introduces a novel fault detection method, denoted the probabilistic inspection of topographic filter altitude likelihood (PITFAL) algorithm, that implements a statistical outlier rejection algorithm. PITFAL is designed for multi-beam slant range sensors, such as the Navigation Doppler LIDAR (NDL), and identifies statistically inconsistent range estimates through a consensus check on the set of apparent altitudes computed for each individual beam. These models are numerically validated by the Safe and Precise Landing Capability Evolution (SPLICE) project’s high-fidelity terrestrial and lunar lander simulations.

Davis W Adams↗

NASA NTRS2025

Topographic Slant Range Modeling and Fault Detection for Precision Planetary Landing

Davis W Adams↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System

This paper presents the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.

probability risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS1989

A performance assessment of a byzantine resilient fault-tolerant computer

This report presents the results of a performance analysis of a quad-redundant Fault-Tolerant Processor (FTP). The FTP is a computing system specifically designed for applications where very high reliability is required. Examples of such applications are flight control systems, nuclear power systems, and spacecraft control systems. The FTP performance was analyzed in a hierarchical manner encompassing the hardware, the operating system, and the application. At the hardware level, the hardware organization and design was assessed in relation to system throughput and response. Analysis at the operating system level revealed that the scheduler took only 3.2 percent of each 40ms frame, while the redundancy management software took 10.4 percent. The application level performance was analyzed via a synthetic workload and a representative flight control model. The estimated throughput for this application was found to be 317.6 KIPS if not exercising the voter. Exercising the voter to ensure fault tolerance will diminish this number linearly as the number of votes is increased. This performance analysis method was proven effective by uncovering undesirable behavior and anomalies in the FTP system.

Young, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The SIFT computer and its development

Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) is an aircraft control computer designed to allow failure probability of less than 10 to the -10th/hour. The system is based on advanced fault-tolerance computing and validation methodology. Since confirmation of reliability by observation is essentially impossible, system reliability is estimated by a Markov model. A mathematical proof is used to justify the validity of the Markov model. System design is represented by a hierarchy of abstract models, and the design proof comprises mathematical proofs that each model is, in fact, an elaboration of the next more abstract model.

Goldberg, J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

Bavuso, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Determination of relative site motions in the western United States using Mark III very long baseline interferometry

Four years of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements involving fixed and mobile stations in the western U.S. are analyzed using weighted least squares. Baseline solution time series are used to estimate rates of change of the vector baseline between pairs of VLBI stations. Horizontal vector motions are determined for 18 sites with respect to a site in the Mojave desert. Six sites west of and two sites just to the east of the San Andreas fault show northwestward motion closely parallel to the San Andreas fault. Their motions range from 18 to 43 mm/yr and are significant at confidence levels greater than 99 percent. Motions in California relative to interior North American plate sites are used to estimate an integrated contribution from Basin and Range spreading to the total relative Pacific plate motion as 9-10 mm/yr. A maximum relative velocity of 50-51 mm/yr is found between the interior North American sites and the western California sites, in close agreement with the NUVEL-1 plate motion model.

Clark, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Geophysical interpretation of satellite laser ranging measurements of crustal movement in California

As determined by satellite laser ranging the rate of contraction of a 900 kilometer baseline between sites located near Quincy in northern California and San Diego in southern California is about 61 to 65 mm/yr with a formal uncertainty of about 10 mm/yr. The measured changes in baseline length are a manifestation of the relative motion between the North America and Pacific tectonic plates. This long baseline result is compared to measurements made by more conventional means on shorter baselines. Additional information based on seismicity, geology, and theoretical modelling is also analyzed. Deformation lying within a few tens of kilometers about the major faults in southern California accounts for most, but not all of the observed motion. Further motion is attributable to a broader scale deformation in southern California. Data suggesting crustal movements north of the Garlock fault, in and near the southern Sierra Nevada and local motion at an observatory are also critically reviewed. The best estimates of overall motion indicated by ground observations lie between 40 and 60 mm/yr. This lies within one or two standard deviations of that deduced by satellite ranging but the possibility of some unresolved deficit cannot be dismissed. The long time scale RM2 plate tectonic model of Minster and Jordan predicts a contraction between 47 and 53 mm/yr depending on the extension rate of the Basin and Range. Thus the ground based observations, satellite laser ranging (SLR) results, and RM2 rates differ at about the 10 mm/yr level and are consistent with one another within the data and model uncertainties.

Cohen, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Sufficiency and necessity in reliability modeling

Limitations of current analytic techniques in estimating the reliability of life-critical electronics systems are discussed. A new framework for specification of recovery and fault-handling submodels is suggested, and is shown through several examples to provide substantially improved modeling accuracy and flexibility. Implementation of the new technique in an X-windows based system, XHARP, is also described. The implementation allows for an automated behavioral decomposition of full system models, heretofore unavailable in such tools.

Geist, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1985

Geometry of miocene extensional deformation, lower Colorado River Region, Southeastern California and Southwestern Arizona: Evidence for the presence of a regional low-angle normal fault

The geometry of Miocene extensional deformation, which changes along a 120 km-long, northeast-trending transect from the southestern Chocolate Mountains, southeastern California, to the Trigo and southern Dome Rock Mountains, southwestern Arizona is discussed. Based upon regional differences in the structural response to extension and estimated extensional strain, the transet can be divided into three northwesterly-trending structural domains. From southwest to northeast, these domains are: (1) southestern Chocolate-southernmost Trigo Mountains; (2) central to northern Trigo Mountains; and (3) Trigo Peaks-southern Dome Rock Mountains. All structures formed during the deformation are brittle in style; fault rocks are composed of gouge, cohesive gouge, and local microbreccia. In each structural domain, exposed lithologic units are composed of Mesozoic crystalline rocks unconformably overlain by Oligocene to Early Miocene volcanic and minor interbedded sedimentary rocks. Breccia, conglomerate, and sandstone deposited synchronously with regional extension locally overlie the volcanic rocks. Extensional deformation largely postdated the main phase of volcanic activity, but rare rhyolitic tuff and flows interbedded with the syndeformational clastic rocks suggest that deformation began during the waning stages of valcanism. K-Ar isotopic ages indicate that deformation occurred in Miocene time, between about 22 and m.y. ago.

Tosdal, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Fault tolerant navigation in a Microwave Landing System environment

This paper describes the failure detection and isolation performance of a sensor fault tolerant system for the NASA Terminal Configured Vehicle (TCV) research aircraft in a Microwave Landing System (MLS) environment. The objective of the fault tolerant system is to detect failures in navigation-aid instruments and on-board sensors and to provide reliable estimates for the aircraft states in the possible presence of these sensor malfunctions. Analytic redundancy, which exists between the various sensor outputs due to the aircraft point mass equations of motion, is used to identify sensor failures. State estimates are used by an automatic guidance and control system to land the aircraft along a prescribed path.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Crustal Dichotomy Boundary West of Tempe Terra: Speculation on Where it Lies Beneath Alba Patera Based on Mola Topography

MOLA gridded data based on profiles collected during the Aerobraking Hiatus and Science Phasing Operations suggest the crustal dichotomy boundary west of Tempe continues beneath Alba volcanics, at least to 105 W at about 50 N. A broad shelf-like region in the Alba units is continuous with a similar region of Tempe in which Hesperian volcanics overlie Noachian cratered terrain. Perspective views show significant changes in the sloping character of the flanks of Alba east and west of 105W, with much more continuous steep topography to the west. We suggest that Alba sits astride the ancient crustal dichotomy boundary, not adjacent to it, and that its eastern half lies on old cratered terrain. If true, this would significantly affect the estimate of Alba volcanics volumes, and might also explain some of the observed asymmetries in the structure and the distribution of faults associated with this immense feature.

Frey, H.↗