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At least 253 records · Page 14

Microbial contribution to post-fire tundra ecosystem recovery over the 21st century

Abstract Tundra ecosystems have experienced an increased frequency of fire, and this trend is predicted to continue throughout the 21 st Century. Post-fire recovery is underpinned by complex interactions between microbial functional groups that drive nutrient cycling. Here we use a mechanistic model to demonstrate an acceleration of the nitrogen cycle post-fire driven by changes in niche space and microbial competitive dynamics. We show that over the first 5-years post-fire, fast-growing bacterial heterotrophs colonize regions of the soil previously occupied by slower-growing saprotrophic fungi. The bacterial heterotrophs mineralize organic matter, releasing nutrients into the soil. This pathway outweighs new sources of nitrogen and facilitates the recovery of plant productivity. We broadly show here that while consideration of distinct microbial metabolisms related to carbon and nutrient cycling remains rare in terrestrial ecosystem models, they are important when considering the rate of ecosystem recovery post-disturbance and the feedback to soil nutrient cycles on centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Free-Flight Tests of 0.11-Scale North American F-100 Airplane Wings to Investigate the Possibility of Flutter in Transonic Speed Range at Varying Angles of Attack

Free-flight tests in the transonic speed range utilizing rocketpropelled models have been made on three pairs of 0.11-scale North American F-100 airplane wings having an aspect ratio of 3.47, a taper ratio of 0.308, 45 degree sweepback at the quarter-chord line, and thickness ratios of 31 and 5 percent to investigate the possibility of flutte r. Data from tests of two other rocket-propelled models which accidentally fluttered during a drag investigation of the North American F-100 airplane are also presented. The first set of wings (5 percent thick) was tested on a model which was disturbed in pitch by a moving tail and reached a maximum Mach number of 0.85. The wings encountered mild oscillations near the first - bending frequency at high lift coefficients. The second set of wings 9 percent thick was tested up to a maximum Mach number of 0.95 at (2) angles of attack provided by small rocket motors installed in the nose of the model. No oscillations resembling flutter were encountered during the coasting flight between separation from the booster and sustainer firing (Mach numbers from 0.86 to 0.82) or during the sustainer firing at accelerations of about 8g up to the maximum Mach number of the test (0.95). The third set of wings was similar to the first set and was tested up to a maximum Mach number of 1.24. A mild flutter at frequencies near the first-bending frequency of the wings was encountered between a Mach number of 1.15 and a Mach number of 1.06 during both accelerating and coasting flight. The two drag models, which were 0.ll-scale models of the North American F-100 airplane configuration, reached a maximum Mach number of 1.77. The wings of these models had bending and torsional frequencies which were 40 and 89 percent, respectively, of the calculated scaled frequencies of the full-scale 7-percent-thick wing. Both models experienced flutter of the same type as that experienced-by the third set of wings.

O'Kelly, Burke R.↗

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) Densities in Coastal Scrub and Slash Pine Flatwoods in Florida

Densities of gopher tortoises were compared with habitat characteristics in scrub and in flatwood habitats on the Kennedy Space Center, Florida. Tortoises were distributed widely among habitat types and did not have higher densities in well-drained (oak-palmetto) than in poorly-drained (saw palmetto) habitats. Fall densities of tortoises ranged from a mean of 2.7 individuals/ha in disturbed habitat to 0.0 individuals/ha in saw palmetto habitat. Spring densities of tortoises ranged from a mean of 2.5 individuals/ha in saw palmetto habitat to 0.7 individuals/ha in oak-palmetto habitat. Densities of tortoises were correlated positively with the percent herbaceous cover, an indicator of food resources. Plots were divided into three burn classes; these were areas burned within three years, burned four to seven years, and unburned for more than seven years prior to the study. Relationships between densities of tortoises and time-since-fire classes were inconsistent.

Breininger, David R.↗

A Unidirectional Two-Compartment Neuron Circuit with On-chip STDP learning

Most neuromorphic chips implement the single-compartment point neuron model where synapse circuits connect directly to a leaky integrate and fire (LIF) soma circuit. However, when using a biologically plausible soma circuit (e.g., Hodgkin-Huxley neuron model), an interface circuitry, such as a current conveyor circuit, is needed to transmit synaptic current to the soma circuit. This is especially true for ultra-low power neuron circuits, where membrane capacitance is on the order of 20 fF. This need for an interface circuit arises because the parasitic capacitance and leakage current caused by fabrication mismatch and second-order effects of the output transistors in the synapse circuits can disturb the spiking dynamics of the soma circuit if connected without an interface. Using an interface circuit to isolate the soma’s membrane capacitor from synapses resolves this issue. We propose to use a unidirectional resistor (a transconductance circuit) to connect the synapse and soma circuits instead of conventional current conveyor circuits. Using a biologically plausible spike pattern detection model, we show that the on-chip spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) learning performance of the proposed unidirectional two-compartment neuron circuit is similar to a single-compartment circuit (with a current conveyor as an interface) and additionally, it is more power-efficient and biologically plausible. The chip is fabricated in the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) 250 nm technology node and comprises a single neuron circuit.

Gautam, Ashish [ORNL]↗

Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2, 2024, affecting all five sites. This dataset provides time series game camera photos, while the broader study includes continuous water quality monitoring, biogeochemical sampling of water and soils, precipitation data, and organic matter analysis. The other data types and additional metadata (include site environmental information) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected photos. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) field protocol; and (6) folders of game camera photos. The game camera photos are organized by site with subfolders by month of collection. The field metadata contains a subset of the information collected that is most relevant to photo-processing. The full set of field metadata can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. All files are .csv, .pdf, or .jpg.

Burn severity↗

From the Fire: A Deeper Look at the Phoenix Stream

We use 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey to perform a detailed photometric characterization of the Phoenix stellar stream, a 15° long, thin, dynamically cold, low-metallicity stellar system in the Southern Hemisphere. We use natural splines, a nonparametric modeling technique, to simultaneously fit the stream track, width, and linear density. This updated stream model allows us to improve measurements of the heliocentric distance (17.4 ± 0.1 (stat.) ±0.8 (sys.) kpc) and distance gradient (−0.009 ± 0.006 kpc deg$^{−1}$) of Phoenix, which corresponds to a small change of 0.13 ± 0.09 kpc in heliocentric distance along the length of the stream. We measure linear intensity variations on degree scales, as well as deviations in the stream track on ∼2° scales, suggesting that the stream may have been disturbed during its formation and/or evolution. We recover three peaks and one gap in linear intensity along with fluctuations in the stream track. Compared to other thin streams, the Phoenix stream shows more fluctuations and, consequently, the study of Phoenix offers a unique perspective on gravitational perturbations of stellar streams. We discuss possible sources of perturbations to Phoenix, including baryonic structures in the Galaxy and dark matter subhalos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

What Has He Done For Me Lately?

I had a boss once who continually asked me what the purpose of my work was, who were my customers, and how was I keeping my customers informed about my team's work. At first I found these questions perplexing, as my customers should have known the answers. I had covered them in my monthly/quarterly reports or in my project meeting notes. Finally, I confronted him about his questions. He acknowledged that my customers had this information, but he was hearing some disturbing comments between when I submitted my reports, comments like, 'What has he done for me lately?' I decided to take this input to heart. My ideas about communications norms needed a major overhaul. The communication norms I was comfortable with were becoming outdated. I realized the written and verbal communications response time was suddenly being measured in days or minutes. People's perception of a project team based on monthly or quarterly meetings was no longer adequate. In the past, once the team's credibility was established it was hard to change. In a rapid-fire communications world, no news causes people to question what the team is doing to move the business/project ahead.

Cameron, W. Scott↗

Development and Testing of Pulse Guns for Combustion Instability Testing

To test liquid rocket engines (LREs) for combustion instabilities, devices such as bombs are often used to create pressure wave disturbances. Bombs, while effective, are inherently dangerous, expensive, and difficult to procure. Over the years, pulse guns have been used as a safer and more cost-effective way to generate controlled pressure disturbances in engine chambers. In anticipation of the need for stability testing of prototype LREs at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), a set of pulse guns have been designed, fabricated, tested, and characterized. The pulse gun program is funded by the RS-25 Engine Program managed out of MSFC and funded by NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) through the MSFC Liquid Engines Office (LEO). A pulse gun is a simple device – like a traditional gun, it has a breech and barrel section. However, unlike a traditional gun, there is no bullet, as the purpose of the pulse gun is strictly to fire a high pressure pulse. Instead of a firing pin and primer that would normally be used in a traditional gun, an initiator is used to activate the gun powder. The initiator is a highly reliable pyrotechnic initiator. For this study, clone versions of the NASA Standard Initiator (NSI) were used. The initiator is used to ignite a pre-measured amount of gun powder loaded into the breech. When the pressure of the burnt gun powder exceeds the set point of a downstream burst disk, the disk ruptures, allowing the high pressure pulse to travel downstream through the barrel section. A ballistic pressure transducer located in the breech section is used to measure the short duration, high pressure pulse. Some configurations of the pulse gun have barrel sections that include one or more additional ballistic pressure transducers. These additional pressure measurements help track the degradation and damping of the pulse as it travels out of the barrel section. The measurements may also be used to determine the velocity of pulse. The objective of this paper is to present the different variants of this newly-developed pulse gun and characterize performance over a range of parameters. The parameters include breech diameter, barrel length, amount of gun powder used, the way the gun powder is packed, and the pressure setting of the burst disk. There are a total of six pulse guns: three with the 0.25 inch breech and three different length barrels, and three with the 0.40 inch breech and three different length barrels. For both breech sizes, the associated barrels are referred to as standard, one-port, and two-port barrels. The standard barrel has no instrumentation and is likely the barrel that will be used for engine stability testing. The one- and two-port barrels were designed specifically for pulse gun component testing to allow measurements of the magnitude and timing of the high pressure pulse as it makes its way through the pulse gun. The burst disks tested were commercially-available burst disks designed to rupture at 8,000, 16,000, and 24,000 psid. Testing was accomplished by firing the pulse gun into a test chamber pressurized with nitrogen at about 2300 psig. A total of four Model 113B23 High frequency ICP® pressure sensors (10k psi) were mounted in the test chamber, in the same plane as the pulse gun. Two of the sensors had “trimmed” adapters, and two did not. Given the symmetrical configuration of the sensors within the test chamber, different amplitudes of pressure measurements are attributed to the use of trimmed versus untrimmed adapters. The untrimmed adapters, with their narrower passages, tended to amplify the pressure amplitudes by as much as 50%. In total, 41 pulse gun tests have been conducted.Data are still being analyzed, but some trends are apparent. For example, measurements taken within the pulse gun are shown in Figures 3 and 4 for Hot-fires (HFs) # 11 and 39, respectively. Both tests were identical in that the 0.40 inch ID breech, two-port barrel, 8,000 psid burst disk, and same amount of gunpowder (6.639 grains for HF# 11, and 6.576 grains for HF# 39) were used, and the back pressure in the nitrogen test chamber was ~2300 psig. Despite keeping all these variables constant, the results from these two tests look quite different. For both tests, the first pressure peak shown in the P2111 trace within the breech is the firing of the initiator. The second peak and any subsequent peaks are from the combustion of the gunpowder. It should be noted that because the sensors are dynamic, the ~2300 psig baseline static pressure is not shown in the figures. For HF# 11, the burst disk clearly ruptured in a little over 0.1 ms from the time the initiator was fired. This is evident from the abrupt rise in pressure for P2112 followed by another abrupt rise in pressure for P2113. The sensors track the movement of the high pressure pulse through the pulse gun. For HF# 39, however, there was nearly 1 ms delay between the initiator firing and the burst disk rupturing. The only difference between these two tests was the way in which the gunpowder was packed within the breech. For HF# 11, the gunpowder was poured directly into the breech, atop the initiator, and held in place with a vegetable fiber wad appropriately sized for the barrel diameter. Once in place, the wad firmly held the gunpowder in place. For HF# 39, the gunpowder was rolled within cigarette paper with the ends of the paper twisted. The rolled gunpowder was gently pushed down into the breech, toward the initiator, and no wad was used. This method of loading the gunpowder consistently produced longer delays in the rupture of the burst disk, presumably because there was a steady, fuller burning of the gunpowder. The burst disk was rated for 8,000 psid, which means that the burst disk should not have opened until the pressure in the breech reached ~10,300 since there was ~2300 psig back pressure in the test chamber. In the case of HF# 11, the breech pressure only reached roughly 4200 psi before there was leakage either through or past the burst disk, but for HF#39, the breech pressure reached 10,600 psi prior to the burst disk opening. The temperature of the burst disk is certainly a factor in determining when the burst disk will rupture. A sharp rise in the burst disk temperature could weaken it and cause it to stray from the designed set point burst pressure. The burst disks are manufactured of Inconel to try to reduce their sensitivity to temperature, but how the burst disks perform above 900°F is not documented. All burst disks were engineered and tested by the manufacturer for ambient temperature conditions. One theory for why rolling the gunpowder in cigarette paper may produce better results is related to a more controlled temperature environment. The cigarette paper may act as a sheath that protects the burst disk from excessive temperatures during the rapid buildup of pressure in the breech. The ultimate benefit of not breeching the burst disk prematurely is shown in Figures 5 and 6, which graphs the resultant pressure pulse produced in the test chamber. For HF #11, the peak pressure on the P2123 trimmed adapter is about 270 psi, while for HF# 39 it is 343 psi, which is about 1.27 times greater in magnitude. In either case, the pressure pulse is ~20 μs in width once it reaches the test chamber. Another pressure rise about 100 μs later can be seen on the sensors located across from the pulse gun port, P2124 and P2121. These pressures are lower due to attenuation of the pressure wave as it moves across the test chamber. After the wave encounters the wall, it reflects back and forth within the chamber until it completely dissipates.

Pulse Gun↗

Stand and environmental conditions drive functional shifts associated with mesophication in eastern US forests

There is a growing body of evidence that mesic tree species are increasing in importance across much of the eastern US. This increase is often observed in tandem with a decrease in the abundance and importance of species considered to be better adapted to disturbance and drier conditions (e.g., Quercus species). Concern over this transition is related to several factors, including the potential that this transition is self-reinforcing (termed “mesophication”), will result in decreased resiliency of forests to a variety of disturbances, and may negatively impact ecosystem functioning, timber value, and wildlife habitat. Evidence for shifts in composition provide broad-scale support for mesophication, but we lack information on the fine-scale factors that drive the associated functional changes. Understanding this variability is particularly important as managers work to develop site-and condition-specific management practices to target stands or portions of the landscape where this transition is occurring or is likely to occur in the future. To address this knowledge gap and identify forests that are most susceptible to mesophication (which we evaluate as a functional shift to less drought or fire tolerant, or more shade tolerant, forests), we used data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program to determine what fine-scale factors impact the rate (change through time) and degree (difference between the overstory and midstory) of change in eastern US forests. We found that mesophication varies along stand and environmental gradients, but this relationship depended on the functional trait examined. For example, shade and drought tolerance suggest mesophication is greatest at sites with more acidic soils, while fire tolerance suggests mesophication increases with soil pH. Mesophication was also generally more pronounced in older stands, stands with more variable diameters, and in wetter sites, but plots categorized as “hydric” were often highly variable. Our results provide evidence that stand-scale conditions impact current and potential future changes in trait conditions and composition across eastern US forests. We provide a starting point for managers looking to prioritize portions of the landscape most at risk and developing treatments to address the compositional and functional changes associated with mesophication.

Woodbridge, Margaret↗

Recovery from an anomalous thruster input during a simulated docking maneuver

An experiment was performed in the Space Station Proximity Operations Simulator at the NASA Ames Research Center. Five test subjects were instructed to perform twenty simulated remote docking maneuvers of an orbital maneuvering vehicle (OMV) to the space station in which they were located. The OMV started from an initial range of 304.8 m (1000 ft) on the space station's negative velocity vector. Anomalous out-of-plane thruster firings of various magnitudes (simulating a faulty thruster) occurred at one of five ranges from the target. Initial velocity, range of anomalous burn, and magnitude of anomalous burn were the factors varied. In addition to whether the trial was successful, time and fuel to return to a nominal trajectory, total mission duration, total fuel consumption, and time histories of commanded burns were recorded. Analysis of the results added support to the hypothesis that slow approach velocities are not inherently safer than their more rapid counterparts. Naive subjects were capable of docking successfully at velocities faster than those prescribed by the 0.1 percent rule even when a simulated faulty thruster disturbed the nominal trajectory. Little to no justification for slow approach velocities remains from a human factors standpoint.

Brody, Adam R.↗

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Multivariable control theory applied to hierarchial attitude control for planetary spacecraft

Multivariable control theory is applied to the design of a hierarchial attitude control system for the CARD space vehicle. The system selected uses reaction control jets (RCJ) and control moment gyros (CMG). The RCJ system uses linear signal mixing and a no-fire region similar to that used on the Skylab program; the y-axis and z-axis systems which are coupled use a sum and difference feedback scheme. The CMG system uses the optimum steering law and the same feedback signals as the RCJ system. When both systems are active the design is such that the torques from each system are never in opposition. A state-space analysis was made of the CMG system to determine the general structure of the input matrices (steering law) and feedback matrices that will decouple the axes. It is shown that the optimum steering law and proportional-plus-rate feedback are special cases. A derivation of the disturbing torques on the space vehicle due to the motion of the on-board television camera is presented. A procedure for computing an upper bound on these torques (given the system parameters) is included.

Boland, J. S., III↗

Profiling overstory survival trends following varying thinning and burning disturbance regimes in a mixed pine-hardwood forest in the US South

Prescribed burning as a silvicultural tool may be effective for achieving various management objectives, yet some practitioners have concerns about inadvertently increasing overstory tree mortality. Using extensive data from a long-term, ongoing study in northcentral Alabama, USA, that systematically applies a variety of thinning and prescribed burning disturbances on mixed pine-hardwood stands, we assess survival trends for different groups of trees. The primary research question is whether more frequent prescribed burns adversely affects overstory survival versus infrequent or no burns; secondary questions explore whether overstory survival trends differ based on thinning level, species group, or size class. Interest is in broad groups of trees, not individual tree survival or mortality; consequently, survival analysis methods are used, including nonparametric Kaplan-Meier (KM) techniques for examining single grouping factors, and parametric accelerated failure time models for analyzing simultaneous effects of multiple covariates. Leveraging relatively recent methodological advances, the statistical techniques are adjusted for interval censored data. KM survival curves showed that more frequent prescribed fires did not result in differing survival trends. Also, trees in unthinned stands had the lowest 14-year survival compared to thinned stands, oaks had the highest survival compared to pines and the others species group, and the smallest size class of overstory trees had the lowest survival. In conclusion, these results support managing transitional mixed pine-hardwoods using thinning and multiple prescribed fires to restore specific species composition and structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Subcritical Coal-Fired Power Plant under Load-Following Conditions

Dynamic models for power plants that capture realistic general process trends and effects of manipulated variables are needed to improve load-following, while minimizing carbon footprint. In this work, a dynamic modeling approach and simulation results for subcritical coal-fired power plant components are presented. These encompass simulation of the dynamics in the fireside, including the effects of fuel, air combustion, and the dynamics of the entire waterside and power generation sections. This model development enables the simulation and analysis of the important short and long-time scale dynamics of components such as heaters, evaporative loop, and power generation units. Furthermore, additional variables in the power generation section are introduced to improve model accuracy, extending the prediction capability of subcritical power plant models and opening new opportunities for research in operator training, optimization, and advanced model-based controller design that are based on these models. The change in process gain for different ramp rates associated with disturbance signals that affect process variables is also explored and a correlation developed. This provides opportunities to study disturbance rejection control implementation and adaptation for scenarios with such variations in ramp rates. The prediction capabilities of selected components are compared to data available in literature, with the obtained root mean squared error ranges that reflect the model performance and quality of predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10 6 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year –1 ), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year –1 ). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. In conclusion, policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗