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At least 253 records · Page 14

Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon over the Maritime Continent and ENSO Variability

Fire emissions from the Maritime Continent (MC) over the western tropical Pacific are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), posing various climate effects to the Earth system. Here, in this study, we show that the historical biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC bb ) aerosol in the dry season from the MC are strengthened in El Niño years due to the dry conditions. The eastern Pacific type of El Niño exerts a stronger modulation in BC bb emissions over the MC region than the central Pacific type of El Niño. Based on simulations using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM), the impacts of increased BC bb emissions on ENSO variability and frequency are also investigated in this study. With BC bb emissions from the MC scaled up by a factor of 10, which enables the identification of climate response from the internal variability, the increased BC bb heats the local atmosphere and changes land–sea thermal contrast, which suppresses the westward transport of the eastern Pacific surface water. It leads to an increase in sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, which further enhances ENSO variability and increases the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events. This study highlights the potential role of BC bb emissions on extreme ENSO frequency, and this role may be increasingly important in the warming future with higher wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization and Stimulation of Selenium Reducing Microbial Consortia from Real Flue Gas Desulfurization Wastewater Biological Treatment System

Selenium is released into the environment via anthropogenic activities such as coal combustion. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Effluent Limitation Guideline (ELG) Rule limits the release of selenium species into U.S. waterways. To meet the ELG limit for selenium, coal-fired power plants must treat the wastewater produced by the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Selenium removal is of interest because small changes of the concentrations of selenium in the environment can cause detrimental ecological consequences. Biological treatment is used to remediate this wastewater, but little is known about the individual species in the microbial consortium that reduce toxic water-soluble selenium oxyanions to insoluble elemental selenium. To optimize current biological treatment capabilities of this water, the selenium-reducing capabilities must be leveraged. In order to do so, the selenium-reducing bacteria (SeRB) in biological treatment systems must be characterized. This study will be the first to characterize the microbial consortia from a real FGD WW biological treatment system and provide insights on how to better achieve selenium removal via biological treatment. This work will provide insights into the microorganisms predominantly responsible for the reduction of selenium oxyanions in FGD wastewater biological treatment systems, which can be used to better optimize more efficient biological treatment strategies of this industrial waste.

geomicrobiology↗

Stewardship Considerations for Nevada FFACO Corrective Action Units Closed through the EM NV Soils Activity based on Monitoring of Radionuclide Transport

This report summarizes the EM NV/DRI work with the intent of conveying this information to the long-term land managers who will assume responsibility as EM NV completes its environmental restoration mission. A brief description of each of the six evaluated Soils Activity sites is provided, which is followed by a discussion of the findings regarding radionuclide transport learned at the sites. The implications of these findings are examined for site management, routine monitoring, and monitoring during potentially adverse events. Possible mitigation actions are also identified. The appendices provide a more detailed examination of the conditions under which radionuclide transport occurs at these sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boosts in leaf-level photosynthetic capacity aid Pinus ponderosa recovery from wildfire

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering massive amounts of carbon, but recent increases in wildfire activity are threatening carbon storage. Currently, our understanding of wildfire impacts on forest resilience and the mechanisms controlling post-fire recovery remains unresolved due to a lack of empirical data on mature trees in natural settings. Here, we quantify the physiological mechanisms controlling carbon uptake immediately following wildfire in mature individuals of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), a wide-spread and canopy-dominant tree species in fire-prone forests. While photosynthetic capacity was lower in burned than unburned trees due to an overall depletion of resources, we show that within the burned trees, photosynthetic capacity increases with the severity of damage. Our data reveal that boosts in the efficiency of carbon uptake at the leaf-level may compensate for whole-tree damage, including the loss of leaf area and roots. We further show that heightened photosynthetic capacity in remaining needles on burned trees may be linked with reduced water stress and leaf nitrogen content, providing pivotal information about post-fire physiological processes. Our results have implications for Earth system modeling efforts because measurements of species-level physiological parameters are used in models to predict ecosystem and landscape-level carbon trajectories. Finally, current land management practices do not account for physiological resilience and recovery of severely burned trees. Our results suggest premature harvest may remove individuals that may otherwise survive, irrevocably altering forest carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral induced polarization (SIP) measurements across a PFAS-contaminated source zone

There is a pressing need for the development of field-scale, in situ screening technologies for assessing variations in aqueous film forming foam (AFFF) concentrations in soils at former fire training and storage sites. Field-scale Spectral Induced Polarization (SIP) geophysical measurements were acquired on a transect crossing an AFFF source zone. Soil samples were acquired from ten locations and used to determine variations in poly- and per-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) concentrations in soils and soil texture. These samples were also used to create triplicate soil columns for laboratory-grade SIP measurements. Field and laboratory observations provide evidence that SIP measurements are sensitive to the concentration of AFFF constituents associated with the pore surface in soils. The phase of the SIP measurements on the laboratory samples was linearly correlated with total soil-sorbed PFAS concentration. The phase from the field SIP measurements was highest over the location of maximum PFAS concentration measured on the laboratory samples, although a significant correlation between field-measured phase and laboratory-measured total PFAS concentration was not established. The sensitivity of the SIP response to the removal of soil PFAS using a methanol wash procedure (total PFAS concentration drop of 366 ppb) adds evidence for the case for SIP characterization of AFFF source zones. The results of these studies suggest that SIP might be developed into a field-scale technology for rapid, indirect assessment of AFFF source zones. Such a technology could improve the effectiveness of AFFF source zone characterization at reduced costs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report on Aerosol Pretreatment Technology Performance and Benchmarking

Solvent-based post-combustion CO 2 capture (PCC) technology remains one of the leading methods to combat global CO 2 emissions produced from large-scale coal-fired power production. Advanced solventbased PCC technology has made significant improvements in design and performance that reduce capital and operating costs to enable its commercial use. Key to low cost, manageable logistics, and environmentally safe operation of solvent-based PCC technology are minimal solvent losses from the process through the treated gas stream exiting PCC plant absorbers. High flue gas aerosol particle concentrations (>10 5 particles/cm 3 ) for particles in the range of 70-200 nm have been shown to cause significant amine solvent losses for solvent-based PCC processes through several mechanisms including absorption of solvent and water into growing aerosol particles. Flue gas aerosol pretreatment technology is the only realistic and economically attractive method to reduce very high aerosol particle concentrations (>10 7 particles/cm 3 ) to enable solvent-based PCC for existing power plants lacking sufficient particle removal systems, such as baghouses. The overall goal of this project was to design, construct, independently test, and evaluate three flue gas aerosol pretreatment technologies identified to significantly reduce high aerosol particle concentrations (>10 7 particles/cm 3 ) in the 70-200 nm particle size range: (1) a novel, high-velocity water injection spray concept developed by RWE and tested by Linde, (2) an innovative electrostatic precipitator (ESP) device with optimized operating conditions developed by Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL), and (3) a non-regenerative sorbent-based filter technology developed by InnoSepra for SO x and NO x removal from coal-fired power plant flue gas. Each technology has been validated with tests on 500-1000 scfm of actual coal-fired flue gas and evaluated in terms of particle removal efficiency (%), cost competitiveness, and environmental impact. Aerosol measurements were performed upstream and downstream of each aerosol reduction unit during independent testing of each technology using advanced instrumentation and analytical methods provided by WUSTL. To perform aerosol measurements, isokinetic probes were inserted into flanged pipes attached to the flue gas piping, and a small suction pump was used to sample gas containing aerosol particles. Aerosol particle number concentrations (# particles/cm 3 ) and size distributions were then measured using a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS, TSI Inc.) for very fine particles (<1,000 nm) and a particle counter manufactured by GRIMM for particles larger than 1,000 nm. This report summarizes the aerosol removal performance results from pilot scale testing of each technology. Performance results have been benchmarked against pre-defined targets and other flue gas aerosol pretreatment technologies with documented performance. Linde Gas North America LLC has been the prime contractor to DOE responsible for overall project management and provided the design for the high-velocity water spray-based aerosol removal technology based on a design concept developed by the German utility company RWE.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Testing the contribution of dispersal to microbial succession following a wildfire

ABSTRACT Given increased wildfire activity, there is growing interest in understanding the drivers of microbial succession after fire. Dispersal may be especially important to post-fire succession as biotic communities can be more susceptible to invasion following a disturbance. Here, we experimentally manipulated dispersal into disturbed leaf litter communities collected following a wildfire and tracked bacterial and fungal dispersal assemblages over time. We show that the identity and source of microbes immigrating into the soil surface post-fire change across time with seasonal shifts and the reemergence of aboveground vegetation. Further, dispersal significantly contributed to the reassembly of leaf litter microbial communities after the fire, producing an increasingly distinct assembly trajectory. The effect of dispersal on α-diversity and β-diversity was ecosystem dependent but, unexpectedly, influenced bacterial and fungal communities in a similar manner within ecosystems. Collectively, these results demonstrate that dispersal explicitly alters the course of microbial community succession following a wildfire and may impact bacteria and fungi in parallel ways, despite differing in traits expected to alter dispersal patterns. IMPORTANCE Identifying the mechanisms underlying microbial community succession is necessary for predicting how microbial communities, and their functioning, will respond to future environmental change. Dispersal is one mechanism expected to affect microbial succession, yet the difficult nature of manipulating microorganisms in the environment has limited our understanding of its contribution. Using a dispersal exclusion experiment, this study isolates the specific effect of environmental dispersal on bacterial and fungal community assembly over time following a wildfire. The work demonstrates the potential to quantify dispersal impacts on soil microbial communities over time and test how dispersal might further interact with other assembly processes in response to environmental change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling Up: Demonstrating Risk Reduction and Cost Compression for Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters - CRADA 625 (Abstract)

Commercial heat pump water heater (CHPWH) systems significantly decarbonize the commercial and multifamily sectors by eliminating the reliance on gas-fired water heating. CHPWH systems are also well suited to include load shift controls that enable load-up and shed commands for supporting grid reliability and time-of-use pricing structure. However, they have not had wide adoption due to factors including price, complexity, and perceived risk. Although CHPWHs have been available in the US for decades, they have not made significant market gains in part because the systems have required significant and costly engineering design expertise and proved lackluster performance. Successful widespread market adoption requires a different approach; a shift from the current custom specialized expertise project design and installation to a repeatable approach that requires little specialized knowledge or expertise and can deliver persistent performance. Using this type of holistic systems approach requires effectively integrating four CHPWH system key components: primary air-to-water heat pumps; primary thermal storage tanks, a temperature maintenance system, and a control system which has capabilities to manage the primary heat pump cycles, any back-up, supplemental, or temperature maintenance heating, alarms, and grid connectivity allowing for demand response (DR), and/or load shifting. The project team has developed and will implement a suite of tools to support faster, less expensive, and more reliable field installations of CHPWH technology and with the resulting data used to further improve the tool set. These tools include: (1) A tool for optimizing system size and costs. (2) A tool that predicts annual energy use and overall system efficiency. (3) The Advanced Water Heater Specification (AWHS 8.0) defining the components of a full CHPWH system addressing performance requirements by climate zone. (4) The Qualified Products List: (QPL) of approved products that meet the specifications requirements. (5) Training materials including online on-demand modules, instructor-led training, and virtual interactive video tours of CHPWH installations in multifamily buildings. Demonstration site identification in low-income buildings in underserved communities is currently underway. Preliminarily, the team anticipates having three demonstrations in the Pacific Northwest and three in the Northeast for a total of six sites. After the demonstration sites are finalized, and M&V instrumentation installations are complete, the team will gather performance data and confirm whether the CHPWH systems perform as predicted and use the data to improve the existing tools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electrically‐Driven Metal‐Insulator Transitions Emerging from Localizing Current Density and Temperature

Negative differential resistance (NDR) is a key electronic response enabling two‐terminal artificial neurons that can be achieved through different physical phenomena, including phase‐homogeneous current density and temperature (electro‐thermal) localizations and spatially‐localized metal‐insulator phase transitions (MITs). These two effects have been observed to occur sequentially in select electrically‐biased transition metal oxides. However, it is unknown why and under what conditions localizing behaviors precede MITs, particularly as a function of device length scale. To this end, the interplay between phase‐homogeneous electro‐thermal localizations and MITs is investigated in a 3D multiphysics simulation of a lateral thin film device, using the material properties of the prototype MIT material VO 2 . These findings demonstrate that the MIT is nucleated through dynamically localizing current density and temperature. A critical device width (≈0.7 µm in this study) is identified, below which both the electrically‐induced electro‐thermal and phase inhomogeneities cease to appear. It is demonstrated that the formation of spatial inhomogeneities directly relates to device dimensions, and demonstrate the decoupling of NDR from the MIT through device scaling relationships. These results provide insight into the material phenomena underlying the material's electrical responses, clarifying conditions under which spatial inhomogeneities form in electrically‐biased MIT materials.

artificial neuron↗

Leak detection in a subcritical boiler

Thermal power plants experience cycling duty leading to the fatigue of the boiler and heat exchanger tubes. As a result, tube failures occur frequently in coal fired fleets leading to forced outages. Furthermore, because the tube leaks have been the major source of unwanted shutdowns and the number of outages is increasing, present work focuses on the detection and isolation of the leak in a subcritical boiler based upon the process data from a commercial coalfired power plant. The mass balance equation around the steam drum was analyzed using timeseries data collected from a 300 MW power plant. The ratio of the feed water mass flow rate to the steam mass flow rate was defined as a key parameter for detecting leaks. The difference in slope between the feedwater and steam mass flow rate during the normal and faulty operations was established as the upper control limit for real time monitoring. To reduce false alarm rates that arise when raw signal is directly compared against the threshold due to common process fluctuations, an optimal filter was derived for smoothing. It was found that the optimal filter reacted much more quickly to process changes than an exponential moving average filter, around 8 h earlier on average. Occurrence of relatively high false alarm rates even in the filtered responses was related to the cycling of the boiler from the base load condition. Variable threshold was established to keep false alarm rates to the minimum while maintaining the leak detection rate. Finally, the leak was located at the economizer and this could readily be isolated by investigating the magnitude of the mass flow rates ratio and the temperature at the economizer outlet.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scoping Thermal Response Calculations of RNS Waste During Transport to and Disposal at the WIPP

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was contracted by the United States Department of Energy Environmental Management (DOE-EM), Los Alamos Field Office to perform mechanical and thermal scoping calculations as part of a study seeking to understand the ignitability risk of the Remediated Nitrate Salts (RNS) waste drums during transportation from the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) facility to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and permanent disposal of the waste at WIPP. The scoping thermal simulations described in this report pertain to thermal calculations performed with a packaging system consisting of one Standard Waste Box (SWB) loaded with drums placed inside a Standard Large Box 2 (SLB2). During transportation, the SLB2 is inside Transuranic Package Transporter Model III (TRUPACT-III), which provides the third layer of the packaging. Once at the WIPP, it is assumed the SLB2 is extracted from the TRUPACT-III and maintained above ground, and then subsequently placed underground for permanent disposal. In these proposed configurations, the space between the SLB2 and the SWB is always filled by a layer of insulation consisting of air-filled glass microbubbles except for the bottom which rests directly on the SLB2. The thermal scoping calculations described in this report specifically address whether the introduction of external heat inputs, combined with the contributions from the internally generated radiolytic decay heat and chemical reactions, lead to an unstable thermal state during the time of its movement and placement in the permanent disposal location. The external heat inputs are of two forms: 1) ambient thermal irradiation (e.g., solar and ambient storage/disposal temperatures) and 2) accident-induced fire. Three scoping calculation scenarios were derived as representative, conservative scenarios: 1A) TRUPACT-III transient transportation, 1B) SLB2 48-hour outdoor storage with solar radiation, and 2) fully-engulfing fire during SLB2 handling or emplacement following a steady-state analysis in a 38 °C environment. All the simulated scenarios are conservative relative to the operational conditions expected for handling the waste package during transportation and placement in the WIPP underground disposal unit. The predictions obtained from simulating the three exposure scenarios revealed that adding the SLB2 and the air-filled glass microbubbles to the transport and storage/disposal configurations provides additional thermal protection of the drums beyond what the SWB provides alone, both during long-term above ground insolation and underground during a fire accident. Under the current transportation/storage/disposal concepts, the degree of protection provided by the packaging concept is sufficient to prevent the waste from being ignitable. The simulation results demonstrate that there is adequate margin to safely transport and place the RNS waste from WCS to the WIPP under the current operational concept.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Depowering of Batteries to Reduce Cost of Ownership

(1) Executive Summary: End of life batteries (EOLBs) present a cost and safety liability for their owners and stakeholders. This is due flammability, energy, and power with EOLBs. Current approaches include cumbersome, expensive packaging, specialized shipping, regulated storage, and they are responsible for over half of the cost of recycling. They all expensively and inadequately address symptoms. OnTo has developed and proven a simple way to resolve the problem systemically, through depowering of lithium-ion batteries (and most any battery other than lead). The low-cost process removes flammability, power, and energy in EOLBs through non-toxic chemical processing. The opportunity for commerce of inert scrap is at least $5 billion greater than the commerce in hazardous scrap, all made possible through OnTo’s technology for efficiency and safety. (2) Depowering Improves Safety and Decreases Cost of Battery Ownership: OnTo’s depowering technology will remove half of the cost of EOLB management and recycling. Without this technology, EOLB recycling will always be a liability. EOLB is hazardous due to inherent flammability of electrolyte and lithium. The shipping and commerce of EOLBs is costly and dangerous all along the chain of custody from owner, dealership/shop, shipper, second-life sorter, (shipper again), and finally to the destination facility recycler. OnTo’s depowering service renders inert most any EOLB packs, modules, and cells. The technology uses a brief, non-toxic treatment applicable to most any chemistry. The industry needs a safe, simple, modular, and inexpensive method to render EOLBs as inert scrap. OnTo’s deactivation system is scalable to the needs of any customer along the EOLB chain of custody. (3) Evidence of Successful Depowering: Untreated batteries will catch fire and explode under abuse conditions such as heat or crush. Slide 2 below shows that untreated batteries will blow-up and expel their internal components with heating, after OnTo’s depowering treatment, the same battery is inert with the same heat treatment (Fig. 7 in the slide). Depowering also removes electrolyte reactivity, eliminating the production of HF and other toxins (Fig 6. in the slide) The depowering process is applicable to large, 26 Ah cells. Fig. 5 in the slide shows the removal of all the electrolyte from whole cells. Removal of flammable material from an EOLB contributes to the inert behavior. OnTo developed this technology through a project supported by the US Department of Energy EERE program, with partners including Seattle King County Metro Transit. While OnTo has generated evidence of successful depowering of batteries, in 2020, a follow-on voucher opportunity for third party analysis of depowered cells and materials was approved through CalTestBed. The expertise of the battery and materials research groups at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory will characterize these depowered cells to provide better understanding of the materials level changes in depowering. (4) Pilot Plant for Depowering EOLBs: Making the spoke work in hub-and-spoke While other companies are marketing the hub-and-spoke approach for recycling EOLBs, they rely on dangerous, expensive shredding methods with flimsy IP protection. OnTo offers the only patented, proven ability to depower EOLBs from most any chemistry – at half of the capital cost required for shredding, while eliminating the liability, danger, and waste streams inherent with shredding. The proposed commercial pilot facility is (5) OnTo Technology LLC Company: OnTo develops advanced battery recycling innovations that produce manufacturing quality electrode materials from recycled batteries. Their patented Cathode-healing™ and Deactivation/Depowering processes improve safety and reduce the cost of recycling. OnTo’s breakthrough technologies produce advanced materials for manufacturing batteries useful in applications from portable power to electric vehicles. Contact: Steve Sloop OnTo Technology LLC, 63221 Service Road, STE F, Bend, OR 97703, ssloop@onto-technology.com , 541-389-7897

deactivation↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geophysical monitoring using active seismic techniques at the Citronelle Alabama CO 2 storage demonstration site

Between August 2012 and September 2014, about 114,000 metric tonnes of CO 2 was captured from the coal-fired Plant Barry Power Station at Bucks Alabama and injected into the Paluxy Formation above the oil pool in the southeast unit of the Citronelle Oilfield. Various monitoring methods were deployed at land surface and in project wells to measure system performance, comply with permit requirements and test new and innovative monitoring tools. The monitoring program relied heavily on active seismic methods for subsurface imaging of geologic structure and time-lapse seismic techniques to track the CO 2 migration in the injection interval. Both conventional geophone/hydrophone and fiber-optic based Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) arrays were deployed and tested, allowing a side by side comparison of the equipment and techniques. Geophysical imaging of the subsurface was successful using DAS in the offset vertical seismic profile (OVSP) survey configuration. A high resolution OVSP image of the subsurface was obtained in 2014 with DAS, which exceeded project expectations in comparison to a lower resolution image obtained in 2012 using a conventional 80-level geophone array. A time-lapse image of the redistribution of CO 2 after injection ended in September 2014 was obtained with two DAS OVSP surveys from June 2014 and December 2015, thus successfully demonstrating its proof-of-concept. Unfortunately, a pre-injection baseline survey with DAS, which was in its initial stage of technology development in 2012, did not have sufficient quality for use, making it difficult to interpret the acquired DAS time-lapse difference. Additional research in this area has since demonstrated the utility of time-lapse DAS OVSP. DAS data were also acquired during a cross-well seismic survey conducted in 2014. Unfortunately, the DAS technique was not success in the cross-well survey configuration because the system noise level was too high in the crosswell frequency output range (100–1200 Hz) of the piezoelectric source (increasing by a factor of ten compared to VSP frequency band). Additionally, the cross-well geometry causes sub-horizontal (broadside) incidence on the vertical DAS fiber cable, which is known to be problematic. Current research is focused on improving the DAS cable response to broadside acoustic energy. Time-lapse seismic surveys using commercially available conventional arrays were also acquired. In contrast to the DAS acquired data, the cross-well seismic results obtained with the conventional array was highly successful and clearly showed the CO 2 remained in zone at the end of injection. Time-lapse differencing of the OSVP surveys acquired with the conventional arrays proved to be inconclusive. Finally, changes in wellbore conditions between surveys and unavoidable changes in equipment (the array used for the baseline survey was retired) affected data quality, making it difficult to interpret the OVSP results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗