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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioNutrients: Microbial on-demand production of short shelf-life micronutrients in space

Long duration deep space missions pose a significant challenge when considering adequate nutrition for human spaceflight. Many micronutrients supplied in pre-packaged foods for low Earth orbit flights have a short shelf life and will degrade over multi-year missions. One strategy to mitigate the risk of micronutrient malnutrition is to grow fresh foods to supplement a pre-packaged diet. The BioNutrients project aims to develop systems for growing edible microorganisms that are genetically engineered to produce short shelf life micronutrients. BioNutrients-1 (BN-1) is a five-year spaceflight project currently underway on the International Space Station (ISS) that tests long-term storage and production of two carotenoids, β-carotene and zeaxanthin, in genetically engineered yeast strains. BN-1 on-orbit and ground control activities indicate that the nutrient production system will be stable for at least two years in ambient storage conditions. BN-1 is also testing the effects of long-term ISS storage on viability and gene expression using “stasis packs” containing a series of microorganisms useful in food and biomanufacturing processes. Stasis pack analysis is distinguishing microorganisms with full viability after two years of storage from other species that lose viability rapidly. In parallel, BioNutrients-2 (BN-2) is being developed as a six-month flight experiment that will expand the range of foods produced on ISS to include yogurt, kefir, and probiotic yeast. BN-2 will improve upon hardware design by transitioning from a hard-shell polycarbonate bioreactor to a flexible fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) bag. This change reduces the mass and volume required to store production packs. The long-term goal of BioNutrients is to develop the capability for rapid and safe delivery of multiple micronutrients in single-use production packs. We expect synthetic biology approaches similar to BioNutrients will play an important role for astronaut health in future NASA missions to the Moon and Mars.

Synthetic Biology↗

DOE OSTI2022

EMPOWER: Accelerating the Transformation of the Global Energy Economy - 2022 JISEA Annual Report

The 2022 JISEA Annual Report describes accomplishments from the past year at the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, which is accelerating the transformation of the global energy economy. 2021 was filled collaboration and high-impact multidisciplinary projects, exploring everything from the energy-water-food nexus, to the cobalt supply chain, to sustainable communities. This year also welcomed the JISEA Catalyzers Initiative that is accelerating research capabilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The Catalyzers are empowering communities and research partners to by bringing together experts working within one space to discuss capabilities and future needs to continue to stay ahead of the research curve.

clean energy↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Discussion of Oxygen Recovery Definitions and Key Performance Parameters for Closed-Loop Atmosphere Revitalization Life Support Technology Development

Over the last 55 years, NASA has evolved life support for crewed space exploration vehicles from simple resupply during Project Mercury to the complex and highly integrated system of systems aboard the International Space Station. As NASA targets exploration destinations farther from low Earth orbit and mission durations of 500 to 1000 days, life support systems must evolve to meet new requirements. In addition to having more robust, reliable, and maintainable hardware, limiting resupply becomes critical for managing mission logistics and cost. Supplying a crew with the basics of food, water, and oxygen become more challenging as the destination ventures further from Earth. Aboard ISS the Atmosphere Revitalization Subsystem (ARS) supplies the crew's oxygen demand by electrolyzing water. This approach makes water a primary logistics commodity that must be managed carefully. Chemical reduction of metabolic carbon dioxide (CO2) provides a method of recycling oxygen thereby reducing the net ARS water demand and therefore minimizing logistics needs. Multiple methods have been proposed to achieve this recovery and have been reported in the literature. However, depending on the architecture and the technology approach, "oxygen recovery" can be defined in various ways. This discontinuity makes it difficult to compare technologies directly. In an effort to clarify community discussions of Oxygen Recovery, we propose specific definitions and describe the methodology used to arrive at those definitions. Additionally, we discuss key performance parameters for Oxygen Recovery technology development including challenges with comparisons to state-of-the-art.

Abney, Morgan B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Separate and Combined Atmospheres in BIO-Plex

We modeled BIO-Plex designs with separate or combined atmospheres and then simulated controlling the atmosphere composition. The BIO-Plex is the Bioregenerative Planetary Life Support Systems Test Complex, a large regenerative life support test facility under development at NASA Johnson Space Center. Although plants grow better at above-normal carbon dioxide levels, humans can tolerate even higher carbon dioxide levels. Incinerator exhaust has very high levels of carbon dioxide. An elaborate BIO-Plex design would maintain different atmospheres in the crew and plant chambers and isolate the incinerator exhaust in the airlock. This design easily controls the crew and plant carbon dioxide levels but it uses many gas processors, buffers, and controllers. If all the crew's food is grown inside BIO-Plex, all the carbon dioxide required by the plants is supplied by crew respiration and the incineration of plant and food waste. Because the oxygen mass flow must balance in a closed loop, the plants supply all the oxygen required by the crew and the incinerator. Using plants for air revitalization allows using fewer gas processors, buffers, and controllers. In the simplest design, a single combined atmosphere was used for the crew, the plant chamber, and the incinerator. All gas processors, buffers, and controllers were eliminated. The carbon dioxide levels were necessarily similar for the crew and plants. If most of the food is grown, carbon dioxide can be controlled at the desired level by scheduling incineration. An intermediate design uses one atmosphere for the crew and incinerator chambers and a second for the plant chamber. This allows different carbon dioxide levels for the crew and plants. Better control of the atmosphere is obtained by varying the incineration rate. Less gas processing storage and control is needed if more food is grown.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Separate and Combined Atmospheres in BIO-Plex

We modeled BIO-Plex designs with separate or combined atmospheres and then simulated controlling the atmosphere composition. The BIO-Plex is the Bioregenerative Planetary Life Support Systems Test Complex, a large regenerative life support test facility under development at NASA Johnson Space Center. Although plants grow better at above-normal carbon dioxide levels, humans can tolerate even higher carbon dioxide levels. incinerator exhaust has very high levels of carbon dioxide. An elaborate BIO-Plex design would maintain different atmospheres in the crew and plant chambers and isolate the incinerator exhaust in the airlock. This design easily controls the crew and plant carbon dioxide levels but it uses many gas processors, buffers, and controllers. If all the crew's food is grown inside BIO-Plex, all the carbon dioxide required by the plants is supplied by crew respiration and the incineration of plant and food waste. Because the oxygen mass flow must balance in a closed loop, the plants supply all the oxygen required by the crew and the incinerator. Using plants for air revitalization allows using fewer gas processors, buffers, and controllers. In the simplest design, a single combined atmosphere was used for the crew, the plant chamber, and the incinerator. All gas processors, buffers, and controllers were eliminated. The carbon dioxide levels were necessarily similar for the crew and plants. If most of the food is grown, carbon dioxide can be controlled at the desired level by scheduling incineration. An intermediate design uses one atmosphere for the crew and incinerator chambers and a second for the plant chamber. This allows different carbon dioxide levels for the crew and plants. Better control of the atmosphere is obtained by varying the incineration rate. Less gas processing, storage, and control is needed if more food is grown.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2017

High-Efficiency Food Production in a Renewable Energy Based Micro-Grid

Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) systems can be used to produce high-quality, desirable food year round, and the fresh produce can positively contribute to the health and well being of residents in communities with difficult supply logistics. While CEA has many positive outcomes for a remote community, the associated high electric demands have prohibited widespread implementation in what is typically already a fully subscribed power generation and distribution system. Recent advances in CEA technologies as well as renewable power generation, storage, and micro-grid management are increasing system efficiency and expanding the possibilities for enhancing community supporting infrastructure without increasing demands for outside supplied fuels. We will present examples of how new lighting, nutrient delivery, and energy management and control systems can enable significant increases in food production efficiency while maintaining high yields in CEA.Examples from Alaskan communities where initial incorporation of renewable power generation, energy storage and grid management techniques have already reduced diesel fuel consumption for electric generation by more than 40 and expanded grid capacity will be presented. We will discuss how renewable power generation, efficient grid management to extract maximum community service per kW, and novel energy storage approaches can expand the food production, water supply, waste treatment, sanitation and other community support services without traditional increases of consumable fuels supplied from outside the community. These capabilities offer communities with a range of choices to enhance their communities. The examples represent a synergy of technology advancement efforts to develop sustainable community support systems for future space-based human habitats and practical implementation of infrastructure components to increase efficiency and enhance health and well-being in remote communities today and tomorrow.

Renewable Energy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Urban agrivoltaics enhance crop resilience and food-energy synergies in a changing climate

Urban agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of solar photovoltaics with urban agriculture, offers a transformative solution to food and energy insecurity, which are major barriers to sustainable urban development, especially in low-income urban areas facing intensified heat and water stress due to climate change. With 70% of the global population projected to live in cities by 2050, maximizing underutilized urban spaces is critical. Our study presents the first evaluation of ground-based agrivoltaics in an urban context, demonstrating that, while early-season yields may decline due to light reduction in temperate climates, productivity rebounds during periods of extreme heat, extending harvest windows and enhancing crop resilience. As cities seek climate-adaptive infrastructure, converting just a fraction of vacant land and rooftops to urban agrivoltaics can yield significant co-benefits such as generating renewable energy for thousands of households while supplying fresh produce to help alleviate food deserts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2016

High-Efficiency Food Production in a Renewable Energy Based Micro-Grid Power System

Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) systems can be used to produce high-quality, desirable food year round, and the fresh produce can positively contribute to the health and well being of residents in communities with difficult supply logistics. While CEA has many positive outcomes for a remote community, the associated high electric demands have prohibited widespread implementation in what is typically already a fully subscribed power generation and distribution system. Recent advances in CEA technologies as well as renewable power generation, storage, and micro-grid management are increasing system efficiency and expanding the possibilities for enhancing community supporting infrastructure without increasing demands for outside supplied fuels. We will present examples of how new lighting, nutrient delivery, and energy management and control systems can enable significant increases in food production efficiency while maintaining high yields in CEA. Examples from Alaskan communities where initial incorporation of renewable power generation, energy storage and grid management techniques have already reduced diesel fuel consumption for electric generation by more than 40% and expanded grid capacity will be presented. We will discuss how renewable power generation, efficient grid management to extract maximum community service per kW, and novel energy storage approaches can expand the food production, water supply, waste treatment, sanitation and other community support services without traditional increases of consumable fuels supplied from outside the community. These capabilities offer communities with a range of choices to enhance their communities. The examples represent a synergy of technology advancement efforts to develop sustainable community support systems for future space-based human habitats and practical implementation of infrastructure components to increase efficiency and enhance health and well being in remote communities today and tomorrow.

Fuel↗

DOE OSTI2024

The circular bioeconomy: a driver for system integration

Background: Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results: The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions: Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO 2 , water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Local Staple Food Price Indices in the Age of Biofuels

In many poor, food insecure regions, agriculture is a primary source of income and farmers are reliant both on their own production and on purchasing food in the market to feed their families. Large local food price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation and may be the consequence of weather-related food production declines, Dr can simply be the result of price transmission from the international commodity market. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets far from the places where the chronically food insecure live. A much better understanding of how local staple food prices in isolated regions such as West Africa that grow most of the food they eat to better understand the impact of global commodity market transformations on sensitive communities at the margin. This information will also enable improved strategies for these farmers who are extraordinarily sensitive to climate change impacts on agricultural growing conditions.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Spacelab flight simulated by two monkeys at CERMA

A semiautomatic module for two monkeys was designed. The module shelters two Rhesus monkeys seated side by side in a compartment, reducing the emotional stresses caused by isolation. Food pellets, water, and air are supplied and body wastes are automatically removed. Physiological and environmental parameters are continually monitored, making possible the performance of experiments concerning the pathophysiological mechanisms of the disorders of weightlessness. A ten day flight of the module in Spacelab was simulated.

Langereux, P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Farming in space: environmental and biophysical concerns

The colonization of space will depend on our ability to routinely provide for the metabolic needs (oxygen, water, and food) of a crew with minimal re-supply from Earth. On Earth, these functions are facilitated by the cultivation of plant crops, thus it is important to develop plant-based food production systems to sustain the presence of mankind in space. Farming practices on earth have evolved for thousands of years to meet both the demands of an ever-increasing population and the availability of scarce resources, and now these practices must adapt to accommodate the effects of global warming. Similar challenges are expected when earth-based agricultural practices are adapted for space-based agriculture. A key variable in space is gravity; planets (e.g. Mars, 1/3 g) and moons (e.g. Earth's moon, 1/6 g) differ from spacecraft orbiting the Earth (e.g. Space stations) or orbital transfer vehicles that are subject to microgravity. The movement of heat, water vapor, CO2 and O2 between plant surfaces and their environment is also affected by gravity. In microgravity, these processes may also be affected by reduced mass transport and thicker boundary layers around plant organs caused by the absence of buoyancy dependent convective transport. Future space farmers will have to adapt their practices to accommodate microgravity, high and low extremes in ambient temperatures, reduced atmospheric pressures, atmospheres containing high volatile organic carbon contents, and elevated to super-elevated CO2 concentrations. Farming in space must also be carried out within power-, volume-, and mass-limited life support systems and must share resources with manned crews. Improved lighting and sensor technologies will have to be developed and tested for use in space. These developments should also help make crop production in terrestrial controlled environments (plant growth chambers and greenhouses) more efficient and, therefore, make these alternative agricultural systems more economically feasible food production systems. c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review↗

NASA NTRS2009

Sensitive, Rapid Detection of Bacterial Spores

A method of sensitive detection of bacterial spores within delays of no more than a few hours has been developed to provide an alternative to a prior three-day NASA standard culture-based assay. A capability for relatively rapid detection of bacterial spores would be beneficial for many endeavors, a few examples being agriculture, medicine, public health, defense against biowarfare, water supply, sanitation, hygiene, and the food-packaging and medical-equipment industries. The method involves the use of a commercial rapid microbial detection system (RMDS) that utilizes a combination of membrane filtration, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) bioluminescence chemistry, and analysis of luminescence images detected by a charge-coupled-device camera. This RMDS has been demonstrated to be highly sensitive in enumerating microbes (it can detect as little as one colony-forming unit per sample) and has been found to yield data in excellent correlation with those of culture-based methods. What makes the present method necessary is that the specific RMDS and the original protocols for its use are not designed for discriminating between bacterial spores and other microbes. In this method, a heat-shock procedure is added prior to an incubation procedure that is specified in the original RMDS protocols. In this heat-shock procedure (which was also described in a prior NASA Tech Briefs article on enumerating sporeforming bacteria), a sample is exposed to a temperature of 80 C for 15 minutes. Spores can survive the heat shock, but nonspore- forming bacteria and spore-forming bacteria that are not in spore form cannot survive. Therefore, any colonies that grow during incubation after the heat shock are deemed to have originated as spores.

Kern, Roger G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Historical International Space Station Logistical Mass Delivery

Crewed space exploration missions are extremely logistics dependent, as cargo requirements shape numerous program elements such as vehicle and habitat size. Logistics mass is the mass of items like food and clothing that are not a part of the vehicle or habitat, yet are required by the crew to complete the mission. Numerous studies, such as the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) and the Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) 20-foot chamber analog, have been conceived to research the rates at which crews consume logistics mass. These analogs can simulate many aspects of life in space, including confinement, isolation, limited supplies, and, in certain experiments, the habitat pressure. However, some aspects of space exploration, such as the effects of low gravity and the use of space-based amenities, cannot currently be tested on the ground. In this paper, International Space Station (ISS) manifest data obtained through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Mission Integration Database Application System (MIDAS) portal is used as a precursor to space-based analogs. The objective of the analysis is determining the breakdown of logistics mass used in space exploration. This identifies potential areas of improvement and highlights the rates at which significant items are supplied, aiding in the weighing of alternative options such as utilizing in space manufacturing for supplies vs. manifesting spares, or cleaning clothing in flight vs. discarding it. Official flight manifests ranging a span of 878 days, just short of the three-year length of a potential human mission to Mars, were analyzed to find the rates at which astronauts consumed various logistics supplies. From this analysis we have found that contrary to our own hypothesis, ‘food’ was not the largest portion of the supplied mass. Instead, ‘Environmental Control and Life Support Systems’ (ECLSS) contributed 34% of the overall supplied mass, followed by ‘Science and Outfitting,’ which contributed 29%. Food totaled less than a quarter (21% of the resupplied mass, while other items of focus in mass reduction efforts such as ‘Hygiene’ (6%), ‘Clothing’ (3%), and ‘Operational Supplies’ (4%) each contributed less than a tenth of the supplied mass. This data suggests that by categorizing and analyzing the data based on an alternative taxonomy and analyzing the full supply manifests rather than handpicked items, we have revealed unexpectedly significant items which had not been previously tracked by exploration logistics efforts. For example, toilet hardware made up 4% of ECLSS mass, and laptop hardware and multi-tools each made up 10% of operational supplies mass. Additionally, the ‘Specialized Clothing’ subcategory containing fire protective equipment, coveralls, and penguin suits made up 15% of the overall clothing mass. By identifying these newly found significant items, we can create more realistic mass estimates for exploration missions and direct mass reduction efforts to new areas, potentially leading to lower future mission masses.

Logistics↗

NASA NTRS2021

Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low and middle income countries

Global food security is threatened by the effects of COVID-19 on international agricultural supply chains and locusts destroying crops and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa and South Asia. We quantify the possible impacts on global supplies and prices of wheat, rice and maize. We show that local production declines have moderate impacts on global prices and supply – but trade restrictions and precautionary purchases by a few key actors could create global food price spikes and severe local food shortages.

Grain export restrictions↗

NASA NTRS2006

Ion-Exclusion Chromatography for Analyzing Organics in Water

A liquid-chromatography technique has been developed for use in the quantitative analysis of urea (and of other nonvolatile organic compounds typically found with urea) dissolved in water. The technique involves the use of a column that contains an ion-exclusion resin; heretofore, this column has been sold for use in analyzing monosaccharides and food softeners, but not for analyzing water supplies. The prior technique commonly used to analyze water for urea content has been one of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), with reliance on hydrophobic interactions between analytes in a water sample and long-chain alkyl groups bonded to an HPLC column. The prior technique has proven inadequate because of a strong tendency toward co-elution of urea with other compounds. Co-elution often causes the urea and other compounds to be crowded into a narrow region of the chromatogram (see left part of figure), thereby giving rise to low chromatographic resolution and misidentification of compounds. It is possible to quantitate urea or another analyte via ultraviolet- and visible-light absorbance measurements, but in order to perform such measurements, it is necessary to dilute the sample, causing a significant loss of sensitivity. The ion-exclusion resin used in the improved technique is sulfonated polystyrene in the calcium form. Whereas the alkyl-chain column used in the prior technique separates compounds on the basis of polarity only, the ion-exclusion-resin column used in the improved technique separates compounds on the basis of both molecular size and electric charge. As a result, the degree of separation is increased: instead of being crowded together into a single chromatographic peak only about 1 to 2 minutes wide as in the prior technique, the chromatographic peaks of different compounds are now separated from each other and spread out over a range about 33 minutes wide (see right part of figure), and the urea peak can readily be distinguished from the other peaks. Although the analysis takes more time in the improved technique, this disadvantage is offset by two important advantages: Sensitivity is increased. The minimum concentration of urea that can be measured is reduced (to between 1/5 and 1/3 of that of the prior technique) because it is not necessary to dilute the sample. The separation of peaks facilitates the identification and quantitation of the various compounds. The resolution of the compounds other than urea makes it possible to identify those compounds by use of mass spectrometry.

Sauer, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1991

Plants for water recycling, oxygen regeneration and food production

During long-duration space missions that require recycling and regeneration of life support materials the major human wastes to be converted to usable forms are CO2, hygiene water, urine and feces. A Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) relies on the air revitalization, water purification and food production capabilities of higher plants to rejuvenate human wastes and replenish the life support materials. The key processes in such a system are photosynthesis, whereby green plants utilize light energy to produce food and oxygen while removing CO2 from the atmosphere, and transpiration, the evaporation of water from the plant. CELSS research has emphasized the food production capacity and efforts to minimize the area/volume of higher plants required to satisfy all human life support needs. Plants are a dynamic system capable of being manipulated to favour the supply of individual products as desired. The size and energy required for a CELSS that provides virtually all human needs are determined by the food production capacity. Growing conditions maximizing food production do not maximize transpiration of water; conditions favoring transpiration and scaling to recycle only water significantly reduces the area, volume, and energy inputs per person. Likewise, system size can be adjusted to satisfy the air regeneration needs. Requirements of a waste management system supplying inputs to maintain maximum plant productivity are clear. The ability of plants to play an active role in waste processing and the consequence in terms of degraded plant performance are not well characterized. Plant-based life support systems represent the only potential for self sufficiency and food production in an extra-terrestrial habitat.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗