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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Multi-cyclone analysis and machine learning model implications of cyclone effects on forests

Past studies of cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones) disturbance showed that meteorological, topographical, and biological factors affect the patterns of forest disturbance intensity but left open the extent to which these findings were representative across different global cyclone regions. Using remote sensing data and machine learning models, we examined how these factors change over spatial scales and assessed their consistency across four major cyclones: Katrina (August 2005), Rita (September 2005), Yasi (February 2011), and María (September 2017). Our results revealed that the factors which best explained forest disturbance intensity pattern varied across these regions. Wind speed and precipitation were the dominant factors contributing to the variation in impacts of Katrina; terrain features, especially elevation, explained most of the variation in disturbance intensity of Rita; pre-disturbance vegetation condition was significant predictors of effects of Yasi; these factors played equal roles in explaining the disturbance intensity variation of María. A 40 m/s (144 km/h) wind speed threshold was proposed to split low- and high-level forest disturbance intensity. Other than wind speed, few generalizations can be made on features across multiple regions. We built several generalized hurricane impact models, which worked well with the test data from cyclones used for model development (R 2 = 0.89). However, these models did not have good predictions on other cyclones, such as Michael (October 2018) and Laura (August 2020). This study showed that each cyclone interacted with the landscape in a unique way and the challenges remained in building a generalized cyclone impact model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation and evaluation of the unified stomatal optimization approach in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES)

Abstract. Stomata play a central role in regulating the exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Their function is represented in land surface models (LSMs) by conductance models. The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is a dynamic vegetation demography model that can simulate both detailed plant demographic and physiological dynamics. To evaluate the effect of stomatal conductance model formulation on forest water and carbon fluxes in FATES, we implemented an optimality-based stomatal conductance model – the Medlyn (MED) model – that simulates the relationship between photosynthesis (A) and stomatal conductance to water vapor (gsw) as an alternative to the FATES default Ball–Woodrow–Berry (BWB) model. To evaluate how the behavior of FATES is affected by stomatal model choice, we conducted a model sensitivity analysis to explore the response of gsw to climate forcing, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit in the air (VPDa). We found that modeled gsw values varied greatly between the BWB and MED formulations due to the different default stomatal slope parameters (g1). After harmonizing g1 and holding the stomatal intercept parameter (g0) constant for both model formulations, we found that the divergence in modeled gsw was limited to conditions when the VPDa exceeded 1.5 kPa. We then evaluated model simulation results against measurements from a wet evergreen forest in Panama. Results showed that both the MED and BWB model formulations were able to capture the magnitude and diurnal changes of measured gsw and A but underestimated both by about 30 % when the soil was predicted to be very dry. Comparison of modeled soil water content from FATES to a reanalysis product showed that FATES captured soil drying well, but translation of drying soil to modeled physiology reduced the models' ability to match observations. Our study suggests that the parameterization of stomatal conductance models and current model response to drought are the critical areas for improving model simulation of CO2 and water fluxes in tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) are widely used in hydrological modelling, which plays a critical role in improving the accuracy of hydrological predictions. However, the trade-off between model performance and computational cost has always been a challenge for hydrologists when selecting a suitable model, particularly for probabilistic post-processing with large ensemble members. This study aims to systematically compare the quantile regression forest (QRF) model and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) model as hydrological probabilistic post-processors. Specifically, we evaluate their ability in dealing with biased streamflow simulations driven by three satellite precipitation products across 522 nested sub-basins of the Yalong River basin in China. Model performance is comprehensively assessed using a series of scoring metrics from both probabilistic and deterministic perspectives. Our results show that the QRF model and the CMAL-LSTM model are comparable in terms of probabilistic prediction, and their performances are closely related to the flow accumulation area (FAA) of the sub-basin. The QRF model outperforms the CMAL-LSTM model in most sub-basins with smaller FAA, while the CMAL-LSTM model has an undebatable advantage in sub-basins with FAA larger than 60 000 km2 in the Yalong River basin. In terms of deterministic predictions, the CMAL-LSTM model is preferred, especially when the raw streamflow is poorly simulated and used as input. However, setting aside the differences in model performance, the QRF model with 100-member quantiles demonstrates a noteworthy advantage by exhibiting a 50 % reduction in computation time compared to the CMAL-LSTM model with the same ensemble members in all experiments. As a result, this study provides insights into model selection in hydrological post-processing and the trade-offs between model performance and computational efficiency. The findings highlight the importance of considering the specific application scenario, such as the catchment size and the required accuracy level, when selecting a suitable model for hydrological post-processing.

Geology↗

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Modeling the effects of carbon payments and forest owner cooperatives on carbon storage and revenue in Pacific Northwest forestlands

The forestlands of the Pacific Northwest store a significant amount of carbon, provide wildlife habitat, generate revenue for forestland owners, and provide for sustainable generation of forest products. Promoting forest carbon storage is increasingly recognized as a key management objective to mitigate climate change. We developed an agent-based model to examine the effectiveness of current land management practices in sustaining forest carbon storage and revenue flows, and the utility of market-based carbon payments in improving carbon storage while also improving revenue generation in the Pacific Northwest. We find that while market based incentives can improve both forest carbon storage and revenue, they are limited in their benefit to small forest owners. Our results highlight the crucial need for additional policy interventions to reduce barriers to market access for small private owners and ensure sustainable forest management in this region. We further show that a forest owners’ cooperative, which aggregates small owners to reduce the costs of participating in a carbon market, can help overcome these barriers and result in both greater carbon storage and a more equitable benefit from carbon payments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. More information in the related references. The dataset is a model (ecosys) output used in a study that examined the potential future shifts in high-latitude vegetation types (PFTs) driven by changes in 21st century climate and fire. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing differences in plant functional traits on current and possible 21st century trajectories of Alaskan PFTs. This dataset package includes 13 files in pdf, csv, and nc formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Use of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Dielectric Strength of Gases

Technological advancements in high voltage systems have pushed sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) to its operational limits. Furthermore, this gas has other drawbacks including a high liquefaction temperature and a high global warming potential. Therefore, there has been an urgent need to find alternative gases with high dielectric strength (DS). In this work, density functional theory (DFT) is used to calculate molecular descriptors that are fed into an artificial neural network (ANN) and a random forest (RF). These machine learning (ML) models are then used to predict the DS for hundreds of molecules. A finite element model (FEM) is also used to calculate the electric field profile of multiple simple electrode geometries as the applied voltage to the system is increased. Results indicate that the random forest model has better generalization to unseen data than the neural network. The highest DS value predicted by the RF was 2.16 relative to the experimental DS of SF6. The results also demonstrate how choosing a gas with a higher DS and a geometry with minimal edges and corners can significantly increase the operating voltage of an electrical system. Due to its superior generalization, the RF represents the most promising path toward an accurate DS predictor once sufficient experimental data are available.

Mileski, Matthew [AFIT]↗

The Significance of Aggregation Methods in Functional Group Modeling

The growth of forests and the feedbacks between forests and environmental changes are central issues in the planetary carbon cycle, global climate change, and basic plant ecology. A challenge to understanding both growth and feedbacks from local to global scales is that many critical metabolic processes vary among species. An innovation in solving this challenge is the recognition that species can be lumped into “functional groups” based on metabolic similarity, and these functional groups can then be studied in computational models that simulate ecosystem function. Despite the vast resources devoted to functional group studies and the progress made by them, an important logical and biological question has not been formally addressed, “How do the groupings alter the results of modeling studies?” To what extent do modeling results depend on the choices made in aggregating taxa into functional groups. Here, we consider the effects of using different aggregation strategies in simulating the carbon dynamics of a deciduous forest. Understanding the impacts that aggregation strategy has on efforts to simulate regional-to-global-scale forest dynamics offers insights into both ecosystem regulation and model function and addresses this central problem in the study of carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formulation of a Consistent Multi‐Species Canopy Description for Hydrodynamic Models Embedded in Large‐Scale Land‐Surface Representations of Mixed‐Forests

Abstract The plant hydrodynamic approach represents a recent advancement to land surface modeling, in which stomatal conductance responds to water availability in the xylem rather than in the soil. To provide a realistic representation of tree hydrodynamics, hydrodynamic models must resolve processes at the level of a single modeled tree, and then scale the resulting fluxes to the canopy and land surface. While this tree‐to‐canopy scaling is trivial in a homogeneous canopy, mixed‐species canopies require careful representation of the species properties and a scaling approach that results in a realistic description of both the canopy and individual‐tree hydrodynamics, as well as leaf‐level fluxes from the canopy and their forcing. Here, we outline advantages and pitfalls of three commonly used approaches for representing mixed forests in land surface models and present a new framework for scaling vegetation characteristics and fluxes in mixed forests. The new formulation scales fluxes from the tree to canopy level in an energy‐ and mass‐conservative way and allows for a consistent multi‐species/multi‐type canopy description by hydrodynamic models.

Bohrer, G.↗

The response of coarse root biomass to long-term CO 2 enrichment and nitrogen application in a maturing Pinus taeda stand with a large broadleaved component

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) typically increases aboveground growth in both growth chamber and free-air carbon enrichment (FACE) studies. We report on the impacts of eCO 2 and nitrogen amendment on coarse root biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) at the Duke FACE study, where half of the eight plots in a 30-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda, L.) plantation, including competing naturally regenerated broadleaved species, were subjected to eCO 2 (ambient, aCO 2 plus 200 ppm) for 15–17 years, combined with annual nitrogen amendments (11.2 g N m -2 ) for 6 years. Allometric equations were developed following harvest to estimate coarse root (>2 mm diameter) biomass. Pine root biomass under eCO 2 increased 32%, 1.80 kg m -2 above the 5.66 kg m -2 observed in aCO 2 , largely accumulating in the top 30 cm of soil. In contrast, eCO2 increased broadleaved root biomass more than twofold (aCO 2 : 0.81, eCO 2 : 2.07 kg m -2 ), primarily accumulating in the 30–60 cm soil depth. Combined, pine and broadleaved root biomass increased 3.08 kg m -2 over aCO 2 of 6.46 kg m -2 , a 48% increase. Elevated CO 2 did not increase pine root:shoot ratio (average 0.24) but increased the ratio from 0.57 to 1.12 in broadleaved species. Averaged over the study (1997–2010), eCO 2 increased pine, broadleaved and total coarse root NPP by 49%, 373% and 86% respectively. Nitrogen amendment had smaller effects on any component, singly or interacting with eCO 2 . A sustained increase in root NPP under eCO 2 over the study period indicates that soil nutrients were sufficient to maintain root growth response to eCO 2 . These responses must be considered in computing coarse root carbon sequestration of the extensive southern pine and similar forests, and in modelling the responses of coarse root biomass of pine–broadleaved forests to CO 2 concentration over a range of soil N availability.

9 allometry↗

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Towards a liana plant functional type for vegetation models

Lianas (woody climbers) are crucial components of tropical forests and they have been increasingly recognized to have profound effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics. Despite their importance, lianas' representation in vegetation models remains limited, partly due to the complexity of liana-tree dynamics and the diversity in liana life history strategies. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advances and challenges for mechanistically representing lianas in forest ecosystem models and a proposed path towards effectively representing lianas in these models. Defining a liana plant functional type is a significant challenge because of the high morphological and physiological diversity amongst liana species, and because of their structural association with trees. Here, we identify critical liana traits that likely should contribute to establishing a liana plant functional type, along with key processes to properly represent lianas in ecosystem models. Subsequently, we discuss a variety of possible liana implementation strategies with their associated strengths, limitations, computational costs and data requirements. A fundamental redesign of the tree-centric demographic vegetation models seems appropriate to accommodate the unique growth and competition strategies of lianas. We illustrate the potential of such models with a single-site case study where we disentangle putative mechanisms of liana increasing abundance. Furthermore, we underscore the critical need for comprehensive liana demographic and functional data (including long-term, physiological, and pantropical observations) for the qualitative implementation and evaluation in the proposed modeling efforts. Currently, there is a scarcity of liana data and the data that do exist have a neotropical bias. We finally introduce a new liana functional trait database that can centralize existing liana trait data, incentivize improved data gathering and thus facilitate model development and scientific analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biotic predictors improve species distribution models for invasive plants in Western U.S. Forests at high but not low spatial resolutions

Invasions by non-native plants threaten forest health and sustainability. The ability to predict areas at greatest risk to invasion is essential for informing both monitoring and management of invasive species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to identify environmental correlates of a species’ occurrence and predict geographic areas that may be suitable for its presence and are commonly constructed using solely abiotic predictors. However, mounting evidence implies that not including biotic predictors in SDMs may yield less accurate models at some resolutions typical of landscape-scale models, although this possibility has rarely been evaluated in invasive plants. In this study, we determined whether including descriptors of the biotic environment improved the accuracy of SDMs built at five decreasing spatial resolutions for infestations of five common invasive plants in forests of California, Oregon, and Washington, USA and described environmental correlates of each species’ presence. Predictors of occurrence often echoed those identified in previous studies of the focal species, indicating that our models accurately identified important environmental drivers of occurrence. Including biotic predictors in the SDMs consistently improved model accuracy only at the highest resolution we examined, which may be due to the spatial scale at which biotic interactions primarily act to constrain species’ distributions, the particular biotic predictors we used in our models, or correlations between attributes of the abiotic and biotic environment. This finding suggests that, while the practice of building SDMs using abiotic predictors alone may generally yield models whose accuracy does not differ substantially from those that also include biotic predictors, the effects of biotic interactions on the distribution of invasive plants in forests may be detectable at larger scales than previously thought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of the high column density systems in the Lyman-Alpha forest

The Lyman-α forests observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars can be used as a tracer of the cosmological matter density to study baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the Alcock-Paczynski effect. Extraction of cosmological information from these studies requires modeling of the forest correlations. While the models depend most importantly on the bias parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM), they also depend on the numbers and characteristics of high-column-density systems (HCDs) ranging from Lyman-limit systems with column densities log N HI /1cm -2 > 17 to damped Lyman-α systems (DLAs) with log N HI /1cm -2 > 20.2. These HCDs introduce broad damped absorption characteristic of a Voigt profile. Consequently they imprint a component on the power spectrum whose modes in the radial direction are suppressed, leading to a scale-dependent bias. Using mock data sets of known HCD content, we test a model that describes this effect in terms of the distribution of column densities of HCDs, the Fourier transforms of their Voigt profiles and the bias of the halos containing the HCDs. Our results show that this physically well-motivated model describes the effects of HCDs with an accuracy comparable to that of the ad-hoc models used in published forest analyses. We also discuss the problems of applying the model to real data, where the HCD content and their bias is uncertain.

Lyman alpha forest↗

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

Abstract Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land‐atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat ( H ), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia—along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry‐season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%–30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%–15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%–0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry‐season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model‐observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation ( R n ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 R n and H ~ 0.15 R n ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy‐related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation–atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Restrepo‐Coupe, Natalia↗

Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Machine Learning and Geospatial-Sentinel-1 SAR Integration for Enhanced Early Warning Systems

This study presents a comprehensive framework for flood susceptibility mapping by integrating geospatial factors with both statistical and machine learning models. Thirteen Flood-related factors, including DEM, slope, TWI, NDVI, etc., are extracted as features of models, and historical flood data derived from Sentinel-1 SAR from 2018 to 2023 are used as the target variables of the models. These datasets are analyzed using a frequency-based statistical model and three machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CNN, to generate flood susceptibility maps. The performance of each model is evaluated through AUC; and SHAP scores are separately generated for Machine learning (ML) models to explain each feature contribution in the ML model. The generated susceptibility maps are validated by high-flood-risk locations monitored by flood sensors, BLE inundation models, and flood-prone areas suggested by the Local Community Task Force. The results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms all other models, with an AUC of 0.92 and demonstrates the highest alignment with recommended high-flood-risk locations, while the frequency-based statistical model showed the weakest performance with an AUC of 0.65. SHAP value graphs highlight the elevation, slope, and TWI as the most influential features across all models. The susceptibility maps generated by the machine learning model show strong agreement with the BLE map and high-flood-risk areas identified by the local Community Task Force.

Google Engine↗