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Pomona College Dreamers and Achievers Profile

As an undergraduate at Pomona, Carol Meyers ’00 enjoyed proofs and pure math, but she also had a hankering to solve real-world problems. This eventually led her to discover the field of operations research, in which she earned a PhD from MIT, and from there onto a career at a national laboratory. “National labs are great because they serve a role between academia and industry,” she says, “solving problems too large or too applied for academia, and insufficiently profitdriven for industry.” Her workplace, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is home to the world’s largest laser, frequent home to the world’s fastest supercomputer, and the namesake to element 116 (Livermorium) on the periodic table. During her 10+ years at the laboratory Carol has worked in the areas of energy grid modernization, nuclear counterterrorism, cyber security, stockpile stewardship, and supercomputing, often as a consultant providing mathematical modeling and optimization expertise. Carol has two young kids and serves as co-chair of the New Moms’ Group at her workplace. “Being in a supportive community of moms has really helped me at work,” she says, “because let’s face it – moms know how to get things done!” “People talk a lot about the importance of networking, but this doesn’t have to mean starting technical discussions with strangers. The ability to bond with and relate to other people is far more important, and many women do this very well. Some of my best work networking connections have come through our employer-affiliated daycare.”

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range in value of all the components of avoided costs across the locations studied. -Of the five energy efficiency measures studied, those targeting residential air conditioning in summer-peaking electric systems have the most significant added value when the total time-varying value is considered. -The increased use of rooftop solar systems, storage, and demand response, and the addition of electric vehicles and other major new electricity-consuming end uses are anticipated to significantly alter the load shape of many utility systems in the future. Data used to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on electric system peak demands will need to be updated periodically to accurately reflect the value of savings as system load shapes change. -Publicly available components of electric system costs avoided through energy efficiency are not uniform across states and utilities. Inclusion or exclusion of these components and differences in their value affect estimates of the time-varying value of energy efficiency. -Publicly available data on end-use load and energy savings shapes are limited, are concentrated regionally, and should be expanded.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

GridAPPS-D Conceptual Design v1.0

The purpose of this document is to provide a conceptual design of the distribution system application development platform being developed for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) Program by the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium project GM0063. The platform will be referred to as GridAPPS-D. This document provides a high level, conceptual view of the platform and provides related background and contextual information. This document is intended to both educate readers about the technical work of the project and to serve as a point of reference for the project team. The document will be updated as the project progresses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-Varying Value of Energy Efficiency in Michigan

Quantifying the time-varying value of energy efficiency is necessary to properly account for all of its benefits and costs and to identify and implement efficiency resources that contribute to a low-cost, reliable electric system. Historically, most quantification of the benefits of efficiency has focused largely on the economic value of annual energy reduction. Due to the lack of statistically representative metered end-use load shape data in Michigan (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings), the ability to confidently characterize the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings in the state, especially for weather-sensitive measures such as central air conditioning, is limited. Still, electric utilities in Michigan can take advantage of opportunities to incorporate the time-varying value of efficiency into their planning. For example, end-use load research and hourly valuation of efficiency savings can be used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service (KEMA 2012). In addition, accurately calculating the time-varying value of efficiency may help energy efficiency program administrators prioritize existing offerings, set incentive or rebate levels that reflect the full value of efficiency, and design new programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Chefornak Energy Configuration Options: Energy Infrastructure Optimization to Reduce Fuel Cost and Dependence in Chefornak, Alaska

The U.S. Department of Energy is funding, through the Grid Modernization Program, the Alaska Microgrid Partnership (AMP), a multi-stakeholder collaborative comprised of national labs and Alaska based partners. The over-arching goal of AMP is to reduce the use of total imported fuel into communities to secure all energy services by at least 50% in Alaska's remote microgrids without increasing system lifecycle costs, while improving overall system reliability, security, and resilience. One goal of AMP is to investigate if a combination of Energy Efficiency (EE) and high contribution (from Renewable Energy (RE)) power systems can reduce total imported energy usage by 50% while lowering Life Cycle Costs (LCC) and improving reliability and resiliency. A techno-economic analysis was conducted for the community of Chefornak to investigate system architectures that could meet the goal of reducing imported fuel consumption by 50% or more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrated Multi Scale Data Analytics and Machine Learning for the Grid; Benchmarking Algorithms and Data Quality Analysis

Machine Learning and Data Analytics are terms which are utilized now ubiquitously throughout grid analytics forums, as a potential solution to the growing big data challenges for the distribution grid. As sensors become inexpensive and common, and communication networks grow, the analytics themselves must adapt and enable consumers and providers to visualize and utilize the data provided effectively. Machine learning is one of the techniques proposed in order to manage this data deluge. This report is a subset of the work in this activity, funded through the DOE Grid Modernization Initiative, to summarize the benchmarking and review of data quality impact on the algorithm sets being developed within each use case area.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Utility Investments in Resilience of Electricity Systems

Recent power outages caused by hurricanes, wildfires and other natural disasters, coupled with evolving cyber and physical threats, have increased interest in the resilience of electricity systems. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) defines resilience as “the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions, including the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents.” In a new report for Berkeley Lab, organizations that represent state regulators, utilities and consumers discuss the level and scope of resilience needed, how to decide what investments are most impactful, and roles of local, state and federal officials.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distribution System Planning - State Examples by Topic

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed a study on how regulators in 16 states have dealt with questions related to distribution system planning (DSP) and distributed energy resource (DER) utilization. During the study, DOE and three of its national laboratories developed a significant amount of information on state-level activities including grid modernization planning; distribution planning; tools for integrating distributed energy resources (DERs) (e.g., hosting capacity analysis and tools for maximizing the value of DERs to the distribution system such as locational value analyses); and linkages between distribution planning and related processes such as cost recovery through general rate cases or rate surcharges. The Oregon Public Utility Commission (Commission) requested assistance from DOE on a list of specific questions related to DSP. The Commission was specifically interested in identifying guidance on the creation of comprehensive and transparent utility distribution system plans; on the linkages between such plans and other utility planning processes such as integrated resource planning; improved forecasting and representation of DERs in distribution system plans and other plans such as integrated resource planning; valuation of DERs; and a roadmap for optimized locational planning for DERs. In response to their interests, we have identified 1) specific topics from the original study that would be of assistance to the Commission and 2) states that could provide potential examples or templates to draw from. In this report, we have summarized and reorganized the pertinent original material by subject. We also developed a matrix that points to specific examples for each topic and provide one or two paragraph summaries of each possible template for each topic area with web links directly to the source documents. For some cases in which states have taken significant steps since the publication of the original DOE study, the original source information has been supplemented to ensure the information provided to the Commission remains current. Finally, we called out a small number of especially pertinent or immediately useful documents and have highlighted these in the introductory section. This report documents the material developed for the Oregon Commission by DOE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling the Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid In California

Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. Typically fueled with natural gas, a CHP system combines a prime mover (such as a reciprocating engine) with a generator and heat recovery equipment, allowing operation at very high efficiencies (65–85%). Traditionally, CHP systems have been configured to serve local electrical and thermal loads at the sites where they are deployed. Units are sized to ensure a high capacity factor for the equipment, and the electricity generated tends to be used on site. CHP units in the United States already generate over 12% of the nation’s electricity. However, CHP’s potential benefits could be much greater if power generated could be used beyond the site, because the analysis was performed under the assumption that sites could use all the thermal output. Analysis of a few key sectors confirmed that this assumption is valid (for more information, see Appendix E). Those benefits could include improved grid reliability and resilience, as well as lower-cost options for providing energy and other grid services. The potential benefits also align well with grid modernization objectives, as shown in Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States., and greater electrification of loads, driven by carbon reduction priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Networked Microgrid Optimal Design and Operations Tool: Regulatory and Business Environment Study

Microgrids aim to increase the resilience of the electric supply to the loads within the microgrid through the ability to disconnect from the distribution utility in the event of a power outage and by supplying power to the microgrid loads from a combination of multiple power generation assets and storage systems. Microgrids can also improve reliability at the distribution level by reducing the load on the system under stress conditions. Networking two or more microgrids has the potential to increase reliability and resilience at a reduced cost by taking advantage of economies of scale and increasing the diversity of the generation assets and loads. This report is part of a collaborative effort among several U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories to develop a networked microgrid (NMG) Optimal Design and Operations (OD&O) tool. This tool addresses the goal defined in the Grid Modernization Multi-Year Program Plan to develop a suite of tools that addresses functional requirements for system optimal design and the operations of NMGs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Multi-Tube Mixer Combustion for 65% Efficiency (Final Report)

This project targeted advanced low NOx combustion for advanced gas turbines capable of 65%, or greater, efficiency in combined cycle application. This technology advancement has further potential to benefit gas turbines used in coal based IGCC applications with pre-combustion carbon capture and hydrogen as the resulting fuel. The program developed and synthesized the most advanced combustion system capable of achieving low NOX emissions up to turbine inlet temperatures of 3100F while also supporting the load-following needs of a modern grid. The combustion system contributes to the overall gas turbine efficiency goal by setting the maximum cycle temperature achievable for a given NOX level and by minimizing the through-combustor air flow pressure drop. Focus areas for this project targeted maximizing the turbine inlet temperature entitlement, as constrained by emissions considerations. The design also minimized parasitic air flow pressure drop by using advanced cooling techniques and performance materials selections and by minimizing hot surface area. These two technology objectives (maximum, emissions-compliant cycle temperature and minimum air flow pressure drop) were integrated into a prototype design. The primarily analytical project sought to identify the most promising technologies to meet these objectives. Additional critical “jugular” data were obtained from multi-tube mixer tests to realize the potential of leveraging “micro flames” for minimizing overall hot surface area. This data was used, in conjunction with an understanding of advanced material and cooling design technologies, to analytically develop multiple design concepts. Phase I focused on in-depth engineering analysis and design, with minimal supporting laboratory testing to enable a selection of the top three combustion architectures for achieving these overall objectives. Phase II of the program developed the selected design through a combination of sub-scale testing and analytical efforts. Early tests included a cold-flow cascade to establish aerodynamic performance characteristics and a sub-scale fired test at GE Global Research in Niskayuna, NY, to establish cooling and heat transfer characteristics in conjunction with combustion performance. The data from these tests validated the analytical models to ultimately design a full-scale, test article to evaluate at prototypical pressure and temperature conditions at GE Gas Power’s Gas Turbine Technology Laboratory in Greenville, SC. GE Gas Power also developed, tested, and recommended a suitable seal design to be applied to the unique features of the combustor. To assess the technology challenges from prospective future production of the combustor from a ceramic matrix composite material, screening tests of Environmental Barrier Coatings were completed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

GMLC 1.5.03: Increasing Distribution System Resiliency using Flexible DER and Microgrid Assets Enabled by OpenFMB (Duke-RDS Final Report)

This is the final project report for the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Resilient Distribution System (RDS) project titled “Increasing Distribution System Resiliency using Flexible DER and Microgrid Assets Enabled by OpenFMB”. The primary goal of this project was to increase the resiliency of distribution systems at utilities around the nation by deploying flexible operating strategies that engage end-use assets as a resource.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integration of Next Generation Critical Infrastructure Sensor Technologies

This project is focused on advancing current protective relaying and control through verifying next generation timing systems and sensors with current commercial off the shelf protective relays. This will further research in the field of advanced grid modernization and demonstrate interoperability between nextgeneration protective relays and voltage and current sensors. These commercial off the shelf (COTS) technologies were tested and integrated with next generation sensor technologies, with the results documented below.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Considerations for Developing a Regulatory Roadmap for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Integration in Colombia

The USAID-NREL Partnership in Colombia, in conjunction with SURE and USEA, selected four action plan teams from the Young Professionals Leadership Program to receive tailored NREL technical assistance to support action plan implementation. The four plans selected represent various aspects associated with planning for the efficient integration of DERs, including electric mobility, residential and commercial energy applications, distributed generation modeling, and regulatory considerations. In response to national grid modernization, decentralization, digitalization, and electrification trends, CREG is looking to update Colombia's electric distribution code, with an emphasis on the integration of electric vehicles and charging stations, but also energy storage systems, non-conventional sources of renewable energy, and other distributed energy resources (DERs). CREG aims to establish the general steps that must be carried out to update the distribution code for the integration of DERs, with a view to the design and development of new markets. The objective of the TA provided to CREG was to support them in identifying and outlining the general processes and approaches to consider when updating Colombia's distribution code for the integration of electric vehicles, distributed renewable energy systems, and energy storage systems, with a view to the design and development of new markets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗