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At least 253 records · Page 14

Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (Rev. 0)

A new, revised three-dimensional (3-D) hydrostratigraphic framework model (HFM) for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units 101 and 102 was completed in 2019. The initial (Phase I) model was completed in 2002 and was documented in A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (BN, 2002). Subsequent flow and transport modeling revealed the need to collect additional data to reduce uncertainties. The Phase II data collection and characterization effort included extensive well drilling and testing activities, and rebuilding of the Phase I 3-D HFM, resulting in the Phase II HFM (NSTec, 2014). Further drilling (Well ER-20-12), data collection, and interpretive work (e.g., Thirsty Canyon Lineament [Wurtz and Day, 2018]) were incorporated into the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) HFM. The PM-OV HFM incorporates the area of interest from the Phase II HFM and adds additional areas, primarily to the north and west with minor additions to the south and east. The new, expanded area matches the PM-OV groundwater basin as defined in Fenelon et al. (2016) and includes Pahute Mesa, a former nuclear testing area at the Nevada National Security Site; and Oasis Valley, a groundwater discharge area downgradient from contaminant source areas on Pahute Mesa. The data and information necessary to build the PM-OV HFM are provided in Navarro (2019). The PM-OV HFM will be used by hydrologic modelers who are tasked with developing a model to determine how contaminants are transported by groundwater flow in an area of complex geology. The model area is large (more than 6,250 square kilometers) and geologically complex, including Paleozoic- to Mesozoic-age structures (e.g., thrust faults, Thirsty Canyon Lineament), at least seven Tertiary-age calderas, several intrusive bodies, and many relatively recent basin-and-range normal faults. Investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey; National Security Technologies, LLC; National Laboratories; and U.S. Department of Energy contractors have organized the more than 300 volcanic units and other rocks in the model area into 77 hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs). The volcanic rocks are subdivided into 42 aquifers, 11 confining units, and 9 composite units (containing both aquifer and confining unit rocks). The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks were divided into 5 HSUs, comprising 2 aquifers and 3 confining units. The model also includes 1 alluvial aquifer unit, 8 intrusive confining units, and 1 granite confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these HSUs (“layers” in the model) along with all the major structural features that control them, including calderas and faults. The most substantive differences between the Phase II HFM and the PM-OVHFM include (1) addition of the new data and resulting revised interpretations from the additional area encompassed by the PM-OV groundwater basin; (2) incorporation of 16 new faults; (3) 12 boreholes from the northern extension; (4) 2 additional caldera-collapse collars; and (5) correlation of the simulated faulting and hydrostratigraphy in the eastern part of the model domain with the delineations represented in the neighboring Rainier Mesa-Shoshone Mountain HFM-Prime and Yucca Flat-Climax Mine HFM. All PM-OV HFM delineations were based on published and unpublished data from geophysical investigations, surface geologic maps, and drill-hole records. Phase II approached model uncertainty using the model-building software to test model configurations and hydrologic consequences using a range of values for parameters such as fault offset amounts and HSU elevations. The PM-OV HFM expands on this approach to encompass the entire PM-OV groundwater basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model Package Report: Geoframework Model of the Hanford Site 100 Area

The purpose of the 100 Area Geoframework Model (GFM) is to provide a reasonable, consistent, and defensible three dimensional representation of the hydrostratigraphic units below the River Corridor at the Hanford Site to support contaminant fate and transport models. The GFM is a three dimensional representation of the subsurface geologic structure. From this, three dimensional geologic model-exported results, in the form of points or surfaces, are used as inputs to populate and assemble the various numerical model architectures. The objective of this report is to define the process used to produce a hydrostratigraphic model for the hydrostratigraphic units beneath the Hanford Site 100 Area. The GFM may support several other CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company project needs and objectives, including providing geologic information to support remedial investigations and actions and as a tool to present River Corridor geology and contaminant extents. The GFM was constructed based on information through 2019 available in the Integrated Data Management System, Hanford Environmental Information System, and the Hanford Site geologic contacts (GeoContacts) datasets. Revisions to the 100 Area GFM may occur to incorporate new data and information. Each version will be maintained in configuration control using date stamps for identifying supporting databases, figures, and interpretations. Supporting data include the final three dimensional geoframework surfaces, two dimensional structure and isopach maps, and all the geologic contact inputs and interpreted geologic log data. These final products provide a supporting set of geologic information that together allow the creation of the GFM. This information is managed, updated, and maintained via CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company under the Environmental Model Management Archive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 2

Geological interpretations, earthquake source inversions and ground motion modeling, among other applications, require models that jointly resolve crustal and mantle structure. With the second generation of the Collaborative Seismic Earth Model (CSEM2), we present a global multi-resolution tomographic Earth model that serves this purpose. The model evolves through successive regional- and global-scale refinements. While the first generation aggregated regional models, with this study, we ensure consistency between all individual submodels, resulting in a model that accurately explains wave propagation across scales. Recent regional tomographic models were incorporated, comprising continental-scale inversions for Asia and Africa, as well as regional inversions for the Western US, Central Andes, Iran, and Southeast Asia. Across all regional refinements, over 793,000 source-receiver pairs contributed. Moreover, the long-wavelength Earth model (LOWE) introduces large-scale structures outside of pre-existing local refinements. A full-waveform inversion for global anisotropic P-and S-wave speed structure over a total of 194 iterations with a minimum period of 50 s on a large data set of 1 hr of waveform data from 2,423 earthquakes and over 6 million source-receiver pairs ensures that regional updates in the crust and uppermost mantle translate into updates of deeper, global-scale structure. To test the performance of CSEM2, we evaluate waveform fits between observed and synthetic seismograms at 50 s for an independent data set on the global scale, and on the regional scale for lower periods. We accurately simulate waveforms within and across regional refinements, maintaining the original resolution of the submodels embedded in the global framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models

Previous analytical and simulation-based analyses suggest that deeper land surface models are needed to realistically simulate the terrestrial thermal state in climate models, with implications for land-atmosphere interactions. Analytical approaches mainly focused on the subsurface propagation of harmonics such as the annual temperature signal, and a direct comparison with climate-change model output has been elusive. Here, this study addresses the propagation of a harmonic pulse fitted to represent the timescale and amplitude of anthropogenic warming. Its comparison to land model simulations with stepwise increased bottom boundary depth leads to an agreement between the simulation-based and analytical frameworks for long-term climate trends. Any depth increase gradually decreases the relative error in the subsurface thermodynamics, and a minimum depth of 170 m is recommended to simulate the ground climate adequately. The approach provides an accurate estimate of the required land-model depth for climate-change simulations and assesses the relative bias in insufficiently deep land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sudbury project (University of Muenster-Ontario Geological Survey): Summary of results - an updated impact model

In 1984 the Ontario Geological Survey initiated a research project on the Sudbury structure (SS) in cooperation with the University of Muenster. The project included field mapping (1984-1989) and petrographic, chemical, and isotope analyses of the major stratigraphic units of the SS. Four diploma theses and four doctoral theses were performed during the project (1984-1992). Specific results of the various investigations are reported. Selected areas of the SS were mapped and sampled: Footwall rocks; Footwall breccia and parts of the sublayer and lower section of the Sudbury Igneous Complex (SIC); Onaping Formation and the upper section of the SIC; and Sudbury breccia and adjacent Footwall rocks along extended profiles up to 55 km from the SIC. All these stratigraphic units of the SS were studied in substantial detail by previous workers. The most important characteristic of the previous research is that it was based either on a volcanic model or on a mixed volcanic-impact model for the origin of the SS. The present project was clearly directed toward a test of the impact origin of the SS without invoking an endogenic component. In general, our results confirm the most widely accepted stratigraphic division of the SS. However, our interpretation of some of the major stratigraphic units is different from most views expressed. The stratigraphy of the SS and its new interpretation is given as a basis for discussion.

Avermann, M.↗

Modeling gamma radiation exposure rates using geologic and remote sensing data to locate radiogenic anomalies

Aerial Gamma-Ray Surveys (GRS) are ideal for tracking anthropogenic gamma radiation releases and transport. The interpretation of a GRS can be complicated by natural gamma-ray sources such as atmospheric radon, cosmic rays, geologic materials, and even the survey equipment itself. Some of these complicating factors can be accounted for or corrected by calibration or mathematic techniques. Real-time algorithms that attempt to enhance potential radiogenic anomalies over background are also in use. However, natural geology is a source of significant background gamma-ray production and neither mathematical corrections nor real-time algorithmic approaches directly account for geology and geochemistry. Here in this study, we advance techniques to predict geologic background exposure rates using rapid and practical methods which can be achieved in the field. In addition we generate models that focus specifically on highlighting radiogenic anomalies for emergency response or further investigation. Predictive models developed in this study were generally able to predict background with medians of ± 1.0 μR/h compared to measured data, and were also able to highlight anomalous areas even where radiation exposure rates were within the range of natural background.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Importance of Modeling Carbon Dioxide Transportation and Geologic Storage in Energy System Planning Tools

Energy system planning tools suggest that the cost and feasibility of climate-stabilizing energy transitions are sensitive to the cost of CO 2 capture and storage processes (CCS), but the representation of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage in these tools is often simple or non-existent. We develop the capability of producing dynamic-reservoir-simulation-based geologic CO 2 storage supply curves with the Sequestration of CO 2 Tool (SCO 2 T) and use it with the ReEDS electric sector planning model to investigate the effects of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage representation on energy system planning tool results. We use a locational case study of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Our results suggest that the cost of geologic CO 2 storage may be as low as $3/tCO 2 and that site-level assumptions may affect this cost by several dollars per tonne. At the grid level, the cost of geologic CO 2 storage has generally smaller effects compared to other assumptions (e.g., natural gas price), but small variations in this cost can change results (e.g., capacity deployment decisions) when policy renders CCS marginally competitive. The cost of CO 2 transportation generally affects the location of geologic CO 2 storage investment more than the quantity of CO 2 captured or the location of electricity generation investment. We conclude with a few recommendations for future energy system researchers when modeling CCS. For example, assuming a cost for geologic CO 2 storage (e.g., $5/tCO 2 ) may be less consequential compared to assuming free storage by excluding it from the model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Viscous flow behavior of four iron-containing silicates with alumina, effects of composition and oxidation condition

The viscosity of a magma is an important parameter in connection with its effect on geologic processes such as melt segregation, magma vesiculation, and crystal fractionation. Though most models of geologic processes assume relatively low values for the magma viscosity less than 10,000 poise, it would be useful to have an empirical model for estimating viscosities when the process occurs during continuous cooling to a temperature region where the viscosity is expected to be very high. The considered work has been carried out to provide the experimental measurements of viscosity at low temperatures which would be used in formulating the empirical model. Ten iron-containing silicate compositions have been investigated by Klein et al. (1981), and four of these compositions have been selected for the present study with alumina. The study involves substitutions of Al2O3 for FeOx at Na2O/Al2O3 moles greater than one. For the four iron-containing silicate glasses with alumina, the viscosity at a given temperature is found to increase with increasing (Fe + Al).

Klein, L. C.↗

Intraplate extensional tectonics of the eastern Basin-Range Inferencess on structural style from seismic reflection data, regional tectonics, and thermal-mechanical models of brittle-ductile deformation

Using 1500 km of industry-released seismic reflection data, surface geology, velocity models from refraction data, and earthquake data, the large extensional structures in the crust of the eastern Basin-Range and its transition into the Middle Rocky Mountains and Colorado Plateau have been studied. It is suggested that the close spatial correlation between normal faults and thrust fault segmentation along the Wasatch Front reflects major east-trending structural and lithological boundaries inherited from tectonic processes associated with the evolution of the cordilleran miogeocline, which began in the Precambrian.

Smith, R. B.↗

Venus steep-sided domes: Relationships between geological associations and possible petrogenetic models

Venus domes are characterized by steep sides, a circular shape, and a relatively flat summit area. In addition, they are orders of magnitude larger in volume and have a lower height/diameter ratio than terrestrial silicic lava domes. The morphology of the domes is consistent with formation by lava with a high apparent viscosity. Twenty percent of the domes are located in or near tessera (highly deformed highlands), while most other (62 percent) are located in and near coronae (circular deformational features thought to represent local mantle upwelling). These geological associations provide evidence for mechanisms of petrogenesis and several of these models are found to be plausible: remelting of basaltic or evolved crust, differentiation of basaltic melts, and volatile enhancement and eruption of basaltic foams. Hess and Head have shown that the full range of magma compositions existing on the Earth is plausible under various environmental conditions on Venus. Most of the Venera and Vego lander compostional data are consistent with tholeiitic basalt; however, evidence for evolved magmas was provided by Venera 8 data consistent with a quartz monzonite composition. Pieters et al. have examined the color of the Venus surface from Venera lander images and interpret the surface there to be oxidized. Preliminary modeling of dome growth has provided some interpretations of lava rheology. Viscosity values obtained from these models range from 10(exp 14) - 10(exp 17) pa*s, and the yield strength has been calculated to be between 10(exp 4) and 10(exp 6) Pa, consistent with terrestrial silicic rocks. The apparent high viscosity of the dome lavas suggests that the domes have a silicic composition or must augment their viscosity with increased visicularity or crystal content. Sixty-two percent of the Venus domes are associated with coronae, circular features that have been proposed as sites of mantle upwelling, and 20 percent of the domes are located near tessera, relatively high areas of complex deformed terrain. We have investigated several models that are consistent with these geologic associations. The first case involves the differentiation of basalt in a magma reservoir in the crust, perhaps produced by partial melting within a mantle plume. The second case is melting at the base of thickened basaltic crust, and the final case is volatile exsolution and enhancement within a basaltic magma reservoir. The association of domes with tessera might be explained by crustal remelting, while the association with coronae may be consistent with chemical differentiation of a magma reservoir or the exsolution and concentration of volatiles in the reservoir before eruption.

Pavri, B.↗

Groundwater Pathway Model for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Area 54, Area G, Revision 1

This report consists of four major sections, including this introductory section. Section 2 provides an overview of previous investigations related to the development of the current sitescale model. The methods and data used to develop the 3-D groundwater model and the techniques used to distill that model into a form suitable for use in the GoldSim models are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results of the model development effort and discusses some of the uncertainties involved. Eight attachments that provide details about the components and data used in this groundwater pathway model are also included with this report. The groundwater modeling effort reported here is a revision of the work that was conducted in 2005 (Stauffer et al., 2005a) in support of the 2008 Area G performance assessment and composite analysis (LANL, 2008). The revision effort was undertaken primarily to incorporate new geologic information that has been collected since 2003 at, and in the vicinity of, Area G. The new data were used to create a more accurate geologic framework model (GFM) that forms the basis of the numerical modeling of the site’s long-term performance. The groundwater modeling uses mean hydrologic properties of the geologic strata underlying Area G; this revision includes an evaluation of the impacts that natural variability in these properties may have on the model projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Influence of an Interlayer on Dual Hydraulic Fractures Propagation

Multi-cluster hydraulic fracturing of long-range horizontal wells is an approach for enhancing the productivity of low-permeability shale reservoirs. In this study, RFPA-Petrol (rock failure process analysis on petroleum problems) is applied for modeling hydraulic fracture propagation in multilayered formations. RFPA-Petrol based on coupled hydraulic-mechanical-damage (HMD) modeling was first tested by modeling a laboratory scale experiment on a physical (cement) model with a single completion. The modeling demonstrated the capability of RFPA-Petrol for simulating hydraulic fracture propagation. Then, we used RFPA-Petrol to investigate how the difference in material properties between oil-bearing layers and interlayers and the fracturing fluid properties influence the propagation of dual fractures in multilayered laboratory-scale models. In this case, the models with geological discontinuities in the vertical direction are strongly heterogeneous and RFPA-Petrol simulations successfully modeled the fracture configurations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inference of geologic surface parameters from polarimetric radar observations and model inversion

The results of inferring geologic parameters such as rms surface height, correlation length, and dielectric constant of rough surfaces by fitting observed polarization signatures with those predicted by the second order Rice model are discussed. The inferred results are compared to measured values of rms height and correlation length. The rms height values inferred are in good agreement with in situ measurements. The inferred correlation lengths generally do not agree with measured values. The results allow the separation of the effects of surface roughness and dielectric constant on the overall backscatter from rough surfaces.

Vanzyl, Jakob J.↗

Carbon Storage in Fold‐and‐Thrust Belts: An Overlooked Gigatonne Storage Opportunity

This study presents numerical investigations of the trapping characteristics of fold-and-thrust belt structures, defining three carbon capture and storage (CCS) play types that could be used to store commercial volumes (millions of tonnes) of CO 2 . Specifically, we present simulations of CO 2 storage in three fold-and-thrust belt models comprising a thrust-ramp, duplex, and thrust-fold geometry. To constrain these play types in realistic geology, each model is based on a study site, including a novel investigation of a greenfield saline reservoir in Virginia, USA, being considered for commercial carbon storage and two well-characterized petroleum fields: the Wilburton field in Oklahoma, USA, and the Incahuasi field in Bolivia. Our results provide insight into several key parameters, such as the long-term security of injected CO 2 in these geologies and injection strategies for maximizing storage efficiency while reducing pressure-related risk. These results improve the understanding of CCS in fold-and-thrust belt storage sites globally by describing general storage parameters that may be applied to site-specific projects. We find that thrust-ramp geometries may securely trap CO 2 through solubility and hydrodynamic trapping under suitable reservoir conditions, duplex structures may store some quantities of CO 2 but are pressure-constrained, and that thrust-ramp structures may store large quantities of CO 2 by maximizing fetch volume, which simultaneously lowers geomechanical risk by reducing pressure buildup along zones of weakness.

42 ENGINEERING↗