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At least 253 records · Page 14

Application of IRTAM to Support ISS Program Safety

The International Space Station (ISS) orbits near the F-peak of the ionosphere (approximately 400 km altitude). Generally, satellites orbiting at this altitude would have a floating potential (FP) of approximately -1 V due to the electron temperature (Te). However, the ISS has 8 large negatively grounded 160 V solar array wings (SAW) that collect a significant electron current from the ionosphere. This current drives the ISS FP much more negative during insolation and is highly dependent on the electron density (Ne). Also, due to the size of the ISS, magnetic inductance caused by the geomagnetic field produces a delta potential up to 40 V across the truss, possibly producing positive potentials. During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) the negative FP can lead to an arcing hazard when it exceeds -45.5 V, and the positive FP can produce a DC current high enough to stimulate the astronaut's muscles and also cause a hazard. Data collected from the Floating Potential Monitoring Unit (FPMU) have shown that the probability of either of these hazards occurring during times with quiet to moderately disturbed geomagnetic activity is low enough to no longer be considered a risk. However, a study of the ionosphere Ne during severe geomagnetic storm activity has shown that the Ne can be enhanced by a factor of 6 in the ISS orbit. As a result, the ISS Safety Review Panel (SRP) requires that ionospheric conditions be monitored using the FPMU in conjunction with the ISS Plasma Interaction Model (PIM) to determine if a severe geomagnetic storm could result in a plasma environment that could produce a hazard. A 'Real-Time' plasma hazard assessment process was developed to support ISS Program real-time decision making providing constraint relief information for EVAs planning and operations. This process incorporates 'real time' ionospheric conditions, ISS solar arrays' orientation, ISS flight attitude, and where the EVA will be performed on the ISS. This assessment requires real time data that is presently provided by the FPMU including ISS floating potential, along with ionospheric Ne and Te, in order to determine the present environment. Once the present environment conditions are known to be either above, below, or near the current IRI values, the IRI is used to forecast what the environment could become in the event of a severe geomagnetic storm. If the FPMU should fail, the Space Environments team needs another source of data which is utilized to support a short-term forecast for EVAs. The IRI Real-Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) model is an ionospheric model that uses real time measurements from approximately 70 digisondes to produce foF2 and hmF2 global maps in 15 minute cadence. The Boeing Space Environments team has used the IRI coefficients produced in IRTAM to calculate the Ne along the ISS orbital track. The results of the IRTAM model have been compared to FPMU measurements and show excellent agreement (figure 1). IRTAM has been identified as a potential FPMU back-up system will be used as a backup for the FPMU to support the ISS Program following completion of an FPMU/IRTAM validation campaign.

Hartman, William A.↗

What Properties of CMEs are Most Important for Space Weather?

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and major geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasmas arriving at Earth. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key players in both these aspects. CMEs traveling at super-Alfv nic speeds drive fast-mode MHD shocks that create the high levels of particle radiation. When a CME arrives at Earth, the CME-associated magnetic fields reconnect with Earth s magnetopause fields resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon CME arrival at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Intense shocks arriving at Earth have additional space weather effects such as sudden impulse that shrinks the magnetosphere often exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to the solar wind and energetic storm particle events. This paper highlights these space weather effects using CME observations space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting

Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗

Observations and Simulations of Dropout Events and Flux Decays in October 2013: Comparing MEO Equatorial With LEO Polar Orbit

We compare ESA PROBA-V observations of electron flux at LEO with those from the NASA Van Allen Probes mostly at MEO for October 2013. Dropouts are visible at all energy during four storms from both satellites. Equatorially trapped electron fluxes are higher than at LEO by 10 2 (<1 MeV) to 10 5 (>2.5 MeV). We observe a quite isotropic structure of the outer belt during quiet times, contrary to the inner belt, and pitch angle dependence of high energy injection. We find a very good overlap of the outer belt at MEO and LEO at ~0.5 MeV. We use test-particle simulations of the energetic electrons trapped in the terrestrial magnetic field to study the outer radiation belt electron flux changes during geomagnetic storms. We show that the Dst (Disturbance storm time) effect during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm results in a betatron mechanism causing outward radial drift and a deceleration of the electrons. This outward drift motion is energy independent, pitch angle-dependent, and represents a significant distance (~1 L-shell at L = 5 for moderate storms). At fixed L-shell, this causes a decay of the LEO precipitating flux (adiabatic outward motion), followed by a return to the normal state (adiabatic inward motion) during main and recovery phases. Dst effect, associated with magnetopause shadowing and radial diffusion can explain the main characteristics of outer radiation belt electron dropouts in October 2013. We also use Fokker-Planck simulations with event-driven diffusion coefficients at high temporal resolution, to distinguish instantaneous loss from the gradual scattering that depopulates the slot region and the outer belt after storms. Simulations reproduce the slot formation and the gradual loss in the outer belt. The typical energy dependence of these losses leads to the absence of scattering for relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons in the outer belt, oppositely to dropouts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE MAIN PHASE OF GREAT MAGNETIC STORMS

Demonstration that the main phase of great geomagnetic storms is composed of two parts, characterized by different decay rates of the ring current field

MAGNETIC STORM↗

Accurately Characterizing the Importance of Wave-Particle Interactions in Radiation Belt Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Statistical Wave Representations

Wave-particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earths radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm-time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm-time wave power.

Murphy, Kyle R.↗

Radial transport of storm time ring current ions

Radial transport of energetic ions for the development of the main phase of geomagnetic storms is investigated with data from the medium energy particle analyzer (MEPA) on the Charge Composition Explorer spacecraft, which monitored protons, helium ions, and the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen group, which is mostly dominated by oxygen ions. From a study of four geomagnetic storms, we show that the flux increase of these ions in the inner ring current region can be accounted for by an inward displacement of the ring current population by 0.5 to 3.5 R(E). There is a general trend that a larger inward displacement occurs at higher L shells than at lower ones. These results are in agreement with previous findings. The radially injected population consists of the prestorm population modified by substorm injections which occur on a much shorter time scale than that for a storm main phase. It is also found that the inward displacement is relatively independent of ion mass and energy, suggesting that the radial transport of these energetic ions is effected primarily by convective motion from a large electric field or by diffusion resulting from magnetic field fluctuations.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

Magnetic clouds in the solar wind

Two interplanetary magnetic clouds, characterized by anomalous magnetic field directions and unusually high magnetic field strengths with a scale of the order of 0.25 AU, are identified and described. As the clouds moved past a spacecraft located in the solar wind near Earth, the magnetic field direction changed by rotating approximately 180 deg nearly parallel to a plane which was essentially perpendicular to the ecliptic. The configuration of the magnetic field in the clouds might be that of a tightly wound cylindrical helix or a series of closed circular loops. One of the magnetic clouds was in a cold stream preceded by a shock, and it caused both a geomagnetic storm and a depression in the galactic cosmic ray intensity. No stream, geomagnetic storm, or large cosmic ray decrease was associated with the other magnetic cloud.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

(abstract) Application of the GPS Worldwide Network in the Study of Global Ionospheric Storms

Ionospheric storm dynamics as a response to the geomagnetic storms is a very complicated global process involving many different mechanisms. Studying ionospheric storms will help us to understand the energy coupling process between the Sun and Earth and possibly also to effectively forecast space weather changes. Such a study requires a worldwide monitoring system. The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility.

GPS ionospheric storms communications geomagnetic ↗

History and Development of Coronal Mass Ejections as a Key Player in Solar Terrestrial Relationship

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are relatively a recently discovered phenomenon in 1971, some 15 years into the Space Era. It took another two decades to realize that CMEs are the most important players in solar terrestrial relationship as the root cause of severe weather in Earths space environment. CMEs are now counted among the major natural hazards because they cause large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and major geomagnetic storms, both of which pose danger to humans and their technology in space and ground. Geomagnetic storms discovered in the 1700s, solar flares discovered in the 1800s, and SEP events discovered in the 1900s are all now found to be closely related to CMEs via various physical processes occurring at various locations in and around CMEs, when they interact with the ambient medium. This article identifies a number of key developments that preceded the discovery of white-light CMEs suggesting that CMEs were waiting to be discovered. The last two decades witnessed an explosion of CME research following the launch of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission in 1995, resulting in the establishment of a full picture of CMEs.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Duration and Extent of the Great Auroral Storm of 1859

The great geomagnetic storm of August 28 through September 3,1859 is, arguably, the greatest and most famous space weather event in the last two hundred years. For the first time observations showed that the sun and aurora were connected and that auroras generated strong ionospheric currents. A significant portion of the world's 200,000 km of telegraph lines were adversely affected, many of which were unusable for 8 hours or more which had a real economic impact. In addition to published scientific measurements, newspapers, ship logs, and other records of that era provide an untapped wealth of first hand observations giving time and location along with reports of the auroral forms and colors. At its height, the aurora was described as a blood or deep crimson red that was so bright that one "could read a newspaper by." At its peak, the Type A red aurora lasted for several hours and was observed to reach extremely low geomagnetic latitudes on August 28-29 (-25") and on September 2-3 (-18"). Auroral forms of all types and colors were observed below 50" latitude for -24 hours on August 28-29 and -42 hours on September 2-3. From a large database of ground-based observations the extent of the aurora in corrected geomagnetic coordinates is presented over the duration of the storm event.

Green, James L.↗

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗

Comparison of interplanetary type 2 radio burst observations by ISEE-3, Ulysses, and WIND with applications to space weather prediction

Interplanetary (IP) type 2 radio bursts are produced by IP shocks driven by solar ejecta, presumably involving shock acceleration of electrons that leads to radio emission. These radio bursts, which can be detected remotely by a sensitive spacecraft radio receiver, provide a method of tracking the leading edge of solar ejecta moving outward from the sun. Consequently, observations of these bursts sometimes provide advance warning of one or more days prior to the onset of geomagnetic activity induced by the solar ejecta. A robust lower limit on the fraction of intense geomagnetic storms, that are preceded by IP type 2 bursts, is provided. It is shown that 41 percent of the geomagnetic storms occurring during the interval September 1978 to February 1983 were preceded by type 2 events in this catalog, and reasons why the fraction is not larger are addressed. Differences in the observing capabilities of the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3, Ulysses, and WIND, to explain why each of these similar spacecraft radio investigations provides a different perspective of IP type 2 emissions are reviewed.

MacDowall, R. J.↗

Acceleration of Magnetospheric Relativistic Electrons by Ultra-Low Frequency Waves: A Comparison between Two Cases Observed by Cluster and LANL Satellites

Understanding the origin and acceleration of magnetospheric relativistic electrons (MREs) in the Earth's radiation belt during geomagnetic storms is an important subject and yet one of outstanding questions in space physics. It has been statistically suggested that during geomagnetic storms, ultra-low-frequency (ULF) Pc-5 wave activities in the magnetosphere are correlated with order of magnitude increase of MRE fluxes in the outer radiation belt. Yet, physical and observational understandings of resonant interactions between ULF waves and MREs remain minimum. In this paper, we show two events during storms on September 25, 2001 and November 25, 2001, the solar wind speeds in both cases were > 500 km/s while Cluster observations indicate presence of strong ULF waves in the magnetosphere at noon and dusk, respectively, during a approx. 3-hour period. MRE observations by the Los Alamos (LANL) spacecraft show a quadrupling of 1.1-1.5 MeV electron fluxes in the September 25, 2001 event, but only a negligible increase in the November 2.5, 2001 event. We present a detailed comparison between these two events. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of MRE acceleration during the September 25, 2001 event can be attributed to the compressional wave mode with strong ULF wave activities and the physical origin of MRE acceleration depends more on the distribution of toroidal and poloidal ULF waves in the outer radiation belt.

Shao, X.↗

An estimate of the maximum speed of the solar wind, 1938-1989

In an effort to estimate the highest flow velocity that the solar wind has exhibited at earth during the past 50 years, geomagnetic storms that occurred from 1938 to 1989 were surveyed, and the storms that were preceded by a major proton flare were selected. For each identified flare-storm pair, the average speed ('transit speed') of the associated interplanetary shock from the interval between the flare onset and the sudden commencement of the geomagnetic storm was calculated. In each case, the maximum solar wind flow speed was inferred from an empirical relationship (derived for a sample of recent events) between the shock transit speed and the peak flow velocity of the associated transient stream, obtaining a distribution of maximum solar wind speeds, which presumably corresponds to a sample of the most energetic events of this 50-yr period. Results show no evidence for bulk flow velocities greater than the about 2000 km/sec value deduced by Zastenker et al. (1978) and Grunwaldt (1975) for the August 4, 1972 event.

Cliver, E. W.↗