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At least 253 records · Page 14

Strategies for Flood Resilience and Grid Investment Among Iowa's Electric Distribution Utilities

Flooding poses a growing threat to Iowa's electric distribution system, yet utilities face significant data and modeling challenges in planning effective resilience investments. This report provides a foundational assessment of how distribution utilities in Iowa, investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative, approach resilience planning, with a focus on flood risk. It combines hazard characterization, review of state and utility practices, and application of NLR's Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Systems (ERAD) and Capacity Expansion Decision Support for Distribution Networks (CADET) tools. Using FEMA floodplains, Iowa Flood Center depth grids, and utility infrastructure data, the analysis quantifies asset exposure, simulates outage risks, and evaluates resilience strategies such as pole hardening, undergrounding, and substation protection. Results indicate that while feeder-level upgrades provide incremental benefits, the most significant reductions in outage risk are achieved through targeted substation interventions. The report highlights key data gaps, such as limited elevation data and fragility functions, and underscores the need for probability-weighted investment frameworks to address both frequent and catastrophic flood events. These insights aim to support utilities, state agencies, and federal partners in prioritizing resilience investments that safeguard Iowa's electric grid against future flooding.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Non-destructive Material Characterization of Radioactive Waste Packages with QUANTOM{sup R} - 20130

During the last decades, the nuclear and non-nuclear industry has produced a considerable amount of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. In many countries, it is foreseen to dispose of these waste packages safely in a final repository under strict waste acceptance requirements (e.g. the radiological and material characterization) defined by national licensing and supervisory authorities. The material characterization of waste packages can be performed on the basis of existing documentation or, if the documentation is insufficient, on further destructive or non-destructive analysis. Non-destructive methods are to be preferred to minimize radiation exposures of operating personnel as well as costs. We offer here an innovative non-destructive technology called QUANTOM{sup R} (Quantitative Analysis of Toxic and nontoxic Materials) based on prompt and delayed gamma neutron activation analysis (P and DGNAA). This technology is able to identify, quantify and thus verify the amount of hazardous and non-hazardous substances in 200-l radioactive drums, which is required for a final disposal characterization. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Update of Receptor Locations for INL National Emissions Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) Assessments

This report documents the selection of updated public receptor locations for use in conducting regulatory assessments of radioactive air emissions for Idaho National Laboratory (INL) facilities. The basis for this receptor location analysis is found in 40 CFR 61 Subpart H, “National Emissions Standards for Emissions of Radionuclide Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities,” where the requirements for identifying National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) receptor locations are outlined. Receptor locations (residences, schools, businesses, or farm operations) were identified using high-resolution satellite imagery. This assessment identified 31 unique receptor locations for all INL Site facilities, and 30 receptor locations for INL in-town facilities that have the potential to emit radioactive materials. Identification of receptors for each in-town facility is new to this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Fabrication Lessons Learned of Transportation Packaging from the Perspective of a Design Authority - 20322

This paper presents lessons learned regarding fabricating packaging systems from the perspective of a design authority (DA). Capturing and implementing lessons learned is critical for an organization to reduce systematic project risk and thereby promote the likelihood of project success. This paper defines the design authority as the organization responsible for technical design, resolving technical design issues, quality assurance program, and maintenance of the packaging system license. A package system is defined as the packaging, its contents, and auxiliary equipment. Packages are certified by the NRC under 10 CFR 71[1] for transportation by ground. The following lessons learned subjects are presented in the paper: quality assurance, interpretation of drawing dimensional requirements, execution of manufacturing processes, hardware dimensional inspection, and leakage rate testing. All discrepancies presented in this paper have been resolved as described in the appropriate final data package. All described package systems are in compliance with their Safety Analysis Report (SAR) and certificate of conformance requirements. The intent of this paper is to identify opportunities for improving the outcome of future projects and to mitigate fabrication challenges proactively. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Engineering Study of Svante’s Solid Sorbent Post-Combustion CO 2 Capture Technology at a Linde Steam Methane Reforming H 2 Plant

An initial engineering design study was performed for an advanced post combustion CO 2 capture (PCC) technology to be installed at a commercial-scale steam methane reforming (SMR) hydrogen plant located in the US Gulf Coast. The PCC process integrated the VeloxoTherm™ structured adsorbent technology from Svante for the CO 2 separation and CO 2 compression and purification and balance of plant systems provided by Linde. This pre-FEED equivalent study included following: (1) design basis, (2) basic engineering, including development of process flow diagrams and heat & material balances, (3) inside the battery limit (ISBL) equipment and systems specification, (4) balance of plant outside the battery limit (OSBL) equipment and systems specifications, (5) technology maturation plan, (6) hazard identification (HAZID) review, (7) environmental, health and safety (EH&S) assessment and environmental permitting analysis, (8) constructability review, (9) ISBL and OSBL EPC cost estimation, and (10) commercial-scale techno-economic analysis including capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX) and CO 2 capture cost estimates.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mean Time to Failure Analysis for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Weapons Engineering Tritium Facility Tritium Containment Vessels

The Weapons Engineering Tritium Facility (WETF) is a Hazard Category 2 nonreactor nuclear facility located in Technical Area 16 (TA-16) of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Tritium related research, development, and processing in support of stockpile stewardship program activities is conducted at WETF. Within WETF, various devices can be used to contain tritium and certain devices are designated as Tritium Containment Vessels (TCVs). Several different device types are identified as TCVs within WETF such as LP-50s and AL-M1s. Historically, a threshold tritium mass value has been used as the mechanism for designating a device as a TCV. When the tritium content of the device was below the tritium mass threshold it was not considered to be a TCV in the formal context. When the tritium content was above the administrative threshold, the device was considered to be a TCV. An upper tritium mass limit was also established for TCVs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Structural Analysis Approach for the Defense Programs Package 3 (DPP-3)

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is the design authority for a new Type B hazardous materials transportation package designated as the Defense Programs Package 3 (DPP-3) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The DPP-3 has been developed using similar materials and fabrication methods employed in previous U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), DOE, and NNSA certified packages. The DPP-3 design criteria are derived from the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), NNSA guidance and NRC regulatory guides in order to safely and securely transport a variety of payloads. Final regulatory approval by the NNSA will require physical testing to demonstrate that the containment vessel (CV) remains leaktight after enduring the entire regulatory testing sequence prescribed in Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations Part 71 (10 CFR 71). In order to gain confidence that the DPP-3 will remain leaktight after testing, the DPP-3 has been structurally analyzed using the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software LS-DYNA. The FEA analyses serve two general purposes: first, they aid in design and development of the package, and second, they advise as to which drop orientations are expected to cause the most damage during regulatory testing. This paper will discuss how the design criteria are incorporated into analytical techniques needed to evaluate the FEA structural simulation results for 10 CFR 71 conditions to give confidence the DPP-3 testing campaign will be successful.

Sakalaukus Jr., Peter J.↗

Benchmark Dose Analysis of DNA Damage Biomarker Responses Provides Compound Potency and Adverse Outcome Pathway Information for the Topoisomerase II Inhibitor Class of Compounds

Genetic toxicology data have traditionally been utilized for hazard identification to provide a binary call for a compound's risk. Recent advances in the scientific field, especially with the development of high‐throughput methods to quantify DNA damage, have influenced a change of approach in genotoxicity assessment. The in vitro MultiFlow® DNA Damage Assay is one such method which multiplexes γH2AX, p53, phospho‐histone H3 biomarkers into a single‐flow cytometric analysis (Bryce et al., [2016]: Environ Mol Mutagen 57:546–558). This assay was used to study human TK6 cells exposed to each of eight topoisomerase II poisons for 4 and 24 hr. Using PROAST v65.5, the Benchmark Dose approach was applied to the resulting flow cytometric datasets. With “compound” serving as covariate, all eight compounds were combined into a single analysis, per time point and endpoint. The resulting 90% confidence intervals, plotted in Log scale, were considered as the potency rank for the eight compounds. The in vitro MultiFlow data showed a maximum confidence interval span of 1Log, which indicates data of good quality. Patterns observed in the compound potency rank were scrutinized by using the expert rule‐based software program Derek Nexus, developed by Lhasa Limited. Compound sub‐classification and structural alerts were considered contributory to the potencies observed for the topoisomerase II poisons studied herein. The Topo II poison Adverse Outcome Pathway was evaluated with MultiFlow endpoints serving as Key Events. The step‐wise approach described herein can be considered as a foundation for risk assessment of compounds within a specific mode of action of interest. Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 2020. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wheeldon, Ryan P.↗

Understanding the Nature of Capacity Decay and Interface Properties in Li//LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 Cells by Cycling Aging and Titration Techniques

The spinel structure LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO) is a propitious cathode material for next-generation lithium-ion batteries for fast charge–discharge applications, but its capacity decay mechanism and rate-limiting process are not yet well understood. In this work, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) with galvanostatic intermittent titration (GITT) and cycling aging techniques were employed to investigate the nature of capacity decay in disordered-phase LNMO. Different resistive components were separated after every 10 cycles. Cell overvoltages (ΔVs) due to ohmic conduction, charge transfer (CT), and concentration polarization (CP) were individually determined. Results revealed that the cell exhibited a higher ΔV at a higher discharged state. However, the ΔV value for CP was higher at a higher state of charge (SOC), and the overall LNMO/electrolyte interface played a major role in the rate-determining step. Battery life was estimated based on the results. Battery calendar life was found to be more vulnerable than cycle life. Furthermore, results also indicated that the working SOC range could be optimized based on the resistance analysis by avoiding those SOCs that have the most detrimental impact (e.g., heat generation and fire hazard).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Engineering Design of a Linde-BASF Advanced Post-Combustion CO 2 Capture Technology at a Linde Steam Methane Reforming H 2 Plant

Linde carried out an initial engineering design study for a Linde-BASF advanced post combustion CO 2 capture technology to be installed at a commercial-scale steam methane reforming (SMR) hydrogen plant located in the US Gulf Coast. This pre-FEED equivalent study included following: (1) basic design, including specific project scope definition and design basis, (2) basic engineering, including development of process flow diagrams and heat & material balances, (3) inside the battery limit (ISBL) equipment and systems specification, (4) balance of plant outside the battery limit (OSBL) equipment and systems specifications, (5) technology maturation plan, (6) hazard and operability (HAZOP) review, (7) environmental, health and safety (EH&S) assessment and environmental permitting analysis, (8) constructability review, (9) ISBL and OSBL EPC cost estimation, and (10) commercial-scale techno-economic analysis including capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX) and CO 2 capture cost estimates.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Sex Differences in Odds of Brain Metastasis and Outcomes by Brain Metastasis Status after Advanced Melanoma Diagnosis

Sex differences in cancer are well-established. However, less is known about sex differences in diagnosis of brain metastasis and outcomes among patients with advanced melanoma. Using a United States nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database, we evaluated patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma from 1 January 2011–30 July 2022 who received an oncologist-defined rule-based first line of therapy (n = 7969, 33% female according to EHR, 35% w/documentation of brain metastases). The odds of documented brain metastasis diagnosis were calculated using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, practice type, diagnosis period (pre/post-2017), ECOG performance status, anatomic site of melanoma, group stage, documentation of non-brain metastases prior to first-line of treatment, and BRAF positive status. Real-world overall survival (rwOS) and progression-free survival (rwPFS) starting from first-line initiation were assessed by sex, accounting for brain metastasis diagnosis as a time-varying covariate using the Cox proportional hazards model, with the same adjustments as the logistic model, excluding group stage, while also adjusting for race, socioeconomic status, and insurance status. Adjusted analysis revealed males with advanced melanoma were 22% more likely to receive a brain metastasis diagnosis compared to females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09, 1.36). Males with brain metastases had worse rwOS (aHR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.28) but not worse rwPFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.14) following first-line treatment initiation. Among patients with advanced melanoma who were not diagnosed with brain metastases, survival was not different by sex (rwOS aHR: 1.06 [95% CI: 0.97, 1.16], rwPFS aHR: 1.02 [95% CI: 0.94, 1.1]). This study showed that males had greater odds of brain metastasis and, among those with brain metastasis, poorer rwOS compared to females, while there were no sex differences in clinical outcomes for those with advanced melanoma without brain metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for a Nuclear Power Plant Colocated with Industrial Facilities: Colocation Studies for a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 HYDROGEN↗

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for an NPP Colocated with a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗

The Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events as Part of a Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Approach

To assist the developing advanced reactor industry in future licensing efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program Regulatory Development area initiated a project at Argonne National Laboratory to examine the regulatory treatment of external hazards as part of a risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) licensing framework. A RIPB licensing framework for advanced reactors built on establishing an affirmative safety case offers the benefits of increased flexibility regarding key design and licensing decisions based on a detailed assessment and understanding of plant risk. Historically, reactor licensing addressed events of very low frequency primarily through the application of design margin and defense-in-depth philosophy. In contrast, RIPB approaches attempt to evaluate these scenarios at a level of detail commensurate with their risk, which often necessitates an explicit treatment of their frequency and associated consequence. While the detailed analysis of low frequency events provides insights that can help justify alternative treatments to past conservatism, the findings are dependent on the quality and confidence associated with the analyses. The assessment of external hazards presents a unique challenge, as their potential frequency of occurrence, especially of large magnitude events, is inherently uncertain given the long return periods in question. This project aims to identify the benefits and challenges of such approaches for advanced reactor vendors and aid in the development of consistent and appropriate analysis methodologies. The paper summarizes project findings and explores the application of various approaches for different external hazards. In addition, the current work also evaluates the application of the quantitative health objectives as a limit on external event risk, as they are a potential regulatory requirement under the current draft 10 CFR Part 53, which is a new technology-neutral reactor licensing pathway in the U.S.

Grabaskas, David↗

Prediction of chronic kidney disease progression using recurrent neural network and electronic health records

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive loss in kidney function. Early detection of patients who will progress to late-stage CKD is of paramount importance for patient care. To address this, we develop a pipeline to process longitudinal electronic heath records (EHRs) and construct recurrent neural network (RNN) models to predict CKD progression from stages II/III to stages IV/V. The RNN model generates predictions based on time-series records of patients, including repeated lab tests and other clinical variables. Our investigation reveals that using a single variable, the recorded estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time, the RNN model achieves an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.957 for predicting future CKD progression. When additional clinical variables, such as demographics, vital information, lab test results, and health behaviors, are incorporated, the average AUROC increases to 0.967. In both scenarios, the standard deviation of the AUROC across cross-validation trials is less than 0.01, indicating a stable and high prediction accuracy. Our analysis results demonstrate the proposed RNN model outperforms existing standard approaches, including static and dynamic Cox proportional hazards models, random forest, and LightGBM. The utilization of the RNN model and the time-series data of previous eGFR measurements underscores its potential as a straightforward and effective tool for assessing the clinical risk of CKD patients concerning their disease progression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Risk-informed Predictive Analytics To Achieve Cost-effective Condition-based Monitoring And Maintenance Strategy

The research involves developing risk-informed predictive analytic capabilities to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation code based on Bayesian inference 2. Statistical data analysis code 3. Feature engineering code 4. Health classifier code 5. Diagnosis code 6. Prognosis code 7. Hazard code 8. Generation risk code 9. Economic code

Agarwal, Vivek↗