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At least 253 records · Page 14

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

Chance-Constrained System Identification of Nonlinear Discrete Systems with Safety and Stability Guarantees

This paper presents a discrete-time nonlinear system identification method while satisfying the stability and safety properties of the system with high probability. An Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is used with a Gaussian assumption on the function reconstruction error. A quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP) is developed with probabilistic safety and stability constraints that are only required to be satisfied at sampled points inside the invariant region. The proposed method is validated using two simulation examples: a two degrees-of-freedom (DoF) robot manipulator with constraints on joint angles whose trajectories are guaranteed to remain inside a safe set and on motion trajectories data of a hand-drawn shape.

Iman Salehi↗

Aircraft cabin water spray disbenefits study

The concept of utilizing a cabin water spray system (CWSS) as a means of increasing passenger evacuation and survival time following an accident has received considerable publicity and has been the subject of testing by the regulatory agencies in both the United States and Europe. A test program, initiated by the CAA in 1987, involved the regulatory bodies in both Europe and North America in a collaborative research effort to determine the benefits and 'disbenefits' (disadvantages) of a CWSS. In order to obtain a balanced opinion of an onboard CWSS, NASA, and FAA requested the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group to investigate the potential 'disbenefits' of the proposed system from the perspective of the manufacturer and an operator. This report is the result of a year-long, cost-sharing contract study between the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group, NASA, and FAA. Delta Air Lines participated as a subcontract study team member and investigated the 'return to service' costs for an aircraft that would experience an uncommanded operation of a CWSS without the presence of fire. Disbenefits identified include potential delays in evacuation, introduction of 'common cause failure' in redundant safety of flight systems, physiological problems for passengers, high cost of refurbishment for inadvertent discharge, and potential to negatively affect other safety systems.

Reynolds, Thomas L.↗

Preliminary guided rocket feasibility study

The feasibility of actively guiding sounding rockets to reduce impact dispersion has been investigated. The theoretical probability of range safety thrust termination for several high performance rockets was combined with the cost of acquiring the extended range at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) to establish a guidance system price ceiling of $20K per flight. Guiding the Black Brant VC (BBVC) for the first five seconds of flight results in sufficient dispersion reduction to impact within the standard range boundaries at WSMR. The guidance system thrust level required to statically control the vehicle to a nominal-wind weighted trajectory for five seconds is between 150-200 pounds. A six-degree-of-freedom trajectory program with guidance simulation capability has been developed and the equations are presented.

Nolan, M. B.↗

Preliminary guided rocket feasibility study.

The feasibility of actively guiding sounding rockets to reduce impact dispersion has been investigated. The theoretical probability of Range Safety thrust termination for several high performance rockets was combined with the cost of acquiring the extended range at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) to establish a guidance system price ceiling of $20K per flight. Guiding the Black Brant VC for the first five seconds of flight results in sufficient dispersion reduction to impact within the standard range boundaries at WSMR. The guidance system thrust level required to statically control the vehicle to a nominal-wind weighted trajectory for five seconds is between 150-200 pounds. A six-degree-of-freedom trajectory program with guidance simulation capability has been developed and the equations are delineated in this paper.

Nolan, M. B.↗

New design and operating techniques for improved terminal area compatibility

Current aircraft operating problems that must be alleviated for future high-density terminal areas are safety, dependence on weather, congestion, energy conservation, noise, and atmospheric pollution. The microwave landing system (MLS) under development by FAA provides increased capabilities over the current ILS. It is, however, necessary and urgent to develop the airborne system's capability to take maximum advantage of the MLS capabilities in order to solve the terminal area problems previously mentioned. A major limiting factor in longitudinal spacing for capacity increase is the trailing vortex hazard. Promising methods for causing early dissipation of the vortices are being explored. Also, flight procedures for avoiding the hazard will be explored.

Reeder, J. P.↗

New design and operating techniques and requirements for improved aircraft terminal area operations

Current aircraft operating problems that must be alleviated for future high-density terminal areas are safety, dependence on weather, congestion, energy conservation, noise, and atmospheric pollution. The Microwave Landing System (MLS) under development by FAA provides increased capabilities over the current ILS. The development of the airborne system's capability to take maximum advantage of the MLS capabilities in order to solve terminal area problems are discussed. A major limiting factor in longitudinal spacing for capacity increase is the trailing vortex hazard. Promising methods for causing early dissipation of the vortices were explored. Flight procedures for avoiding the hazard were investigated. Terminal configured vehicles and their flight test development are discussed.

Reeder, J. P.↗

Autonomy issues for an operational space station

Within the last decade, both the U.S. and the Soviet space programs have taken significant preliminary steps in developing technology and systems which are appropriate for the establishment of space stations. The degree of autonomy which will be provided for the station and the role of the crew represents one of the most critical considerations. The present investigation is concerned with a review of the major autonomy issues associated with a permanent, low earth orbit, operational space station. It is shown that both operational effectiveness and crew safety issues require a relatively high degree of space station autonomy. The autonomy level should, for instance, be higher than that of the present space shuttle. Attention is given to various levels of spacecraft autonomy, system integrity, attitude determination and control, navigation and orbit maintenance, system maintenance and resupply, mission support, and implementation of autonomy.

Daly, K. C.↗

Hybrid propulsion technology program: Phase 1, volume 4

The use of a liquid oxidizer-solid fuel hybrid propellant combination in booster rocket motors appears extremely attractive due to the integration of the best features of liquid and solid propulsion systems. The hybrid rocket combines the high performance, clean exhaust, and safety of liquid propellant engines with the low cost and simplicity of solid propellant motors. Additionally, the hybrid rocket has unique advantages such as an inert fuel grain and a relative insensitivity to fuel grain and oxidizer injection anomalies. The advantages mark the hybrid rocket as a potential replacement or alternative for current and future solid propellant booster systems. The issues are addressed and recommendations are made concerning oxidizer feed systems, injectors, and ignition systems as related to hybrid rocket propulsion. Early in the program a baseline hybrid configuration was established in which liquid oxygen would be injected through ports in a solid fuel whose composition is based on hydroxyl terminated polybutadiene (HTPB). Liquid oxygen remained the recommended oxidizer and thus all of the injector concepts which were evaluated assumed only liquid would be used as the oxidizer.

Claflin, S. E.↗

A mobile robot system for ground servicing operations on the space shuttle

A mobile system for space shuttle servicing, the Tessellator, has been configured, designed and is currently being built and integrated. Robot tasks include chemical injection and inspection of the shuttle's thermal protection system. This paper outlines tasks, rationale, and facility requirements for the development of this system. A detailed look at the mobile system and manipulator follow with a look at mechanics, electronics, and software. Salient features of the mobile robot include omnidirectionality, high reach, high stiffness and accuracy with safety and self-reliance integral to all aspects of the design. The robot system is shown to meet task, facility, and NASA requirements in its design resulting in unprecedented specifications for a mobile-manipulation system.

Dowling, K.↗

Decomposition-Based Failure Mode Identification Method for Risk-Free Design of Large Systems

When designing products, it is crucial to assure failure and risk-free operation in the intended operating environment. Failures are typically studied and eliminated as much as possible during the early stages of design. The few failures that go undetected result in unacceptable damage and losses in high-risk applications where public safety is of concern. Published NASA and NTSB accident reports point to a variety of components identified as sources of failures in the reported cases. In previous work, data from these reports were processed and placed in matrix form for all the system components and failure modes encountered, and then manipulated using matrix methods to determine similarities between the different components and failure modes. In this paper, these matrices are represented in the form of a linear combination of failures modes, mathematically formed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) decomposition. The PCA decomposition results in a low-dimensionality representation of all failure modes and components of interest, represented in a transformed coordinate system. Such a representation opens the way for efficient pattern analysis and prediction of failure modes with highest potential risks on the final product, rather than making decisions based on the large space of component and failure mode data. The mathematics of the proposed method are explained first using a simple example problem. The method is then applied to component failure data gathered from helicopter, accident reports to demonstrate its potential.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗

Methods and Piezoelectric Imbedded Sensors for Damage Detection in Composite Plates Under Ambient and Cryogenic Conditions

New methods for structural health monitoring are being assessed, especially in high-performance, extreme environment, safety-critical applications. One such application is for composite cryogenic fuel tanks. The work presented here attempts to characterize and investigate the feasibility of using imbedded piezoelectric sensors to detect cracks and delaminations under cryogenic and ambient conditions. A variety of damage detection methods and different Sensors are employed in the different composite plate samples to aid in determining an optimal algorithm, sensor placement strategy, and type of imbedded sensor to use. Variations of frequency, impedance measurements, and pulse echoing techniques of the sensors are employed and compared. Statistical and analytic techniques are then used to determine which method is most desirable for a specific type of damage. These results are furthermore compared with previous work using externally mounted sensors. Results and optimized methods from this work can then be incorporated into a larger composite structure to validate and assess its structural health. This could prove to be important in the development and qualification of any 2" generation reusable launch vehicle using composites as a structural element.

Engberg, Robert↗

Power Goals for NASA's Exploration Program

Exciting Future Programs ahead for NASA. Power is needed for all Exploration vehicles and for the missions. For long term missions as in Lunar and Mars programs, safe, high energy/ultra high energy batteries are required. Safety is top priority for human-rated missions. Two-fault tolerance to catastrophic failures is required for human-rated safety To meet power safety goals -inherent cell safety may be required; it can lessen complexity of external protective electronics and prevents dependency on hardware that may also have limitations. Inherent cell safety will eliminate the need to carry out screening of all cells (X-rays, vibration, etc.)

Jeevarajan, Judith A.↗

Development of Critical Profilometers to Meet Current and Future NASA Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Inspection Needs

This project is part of a multi-center effort to develop and validate critical NDE techniques which can be implemented into current and future NASA spacecraft COPV manufacturing processes. After decades of COPV development, manufacturing variance is still high and has necessitated higher safety factors and additional mass to be flown on spacecraft (reducing overall performance). Additionally, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) indicated that nondestructive evaluation (NDE) was not adequately implemented during Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) COPV manufacturing and provisions were not made for on-going structural integrity and health checks during the various spacecraft programs. This project helps to provide additional data needed to help address these issues. This project seeks to develop and install internal and external laser profilometers at COPV manufacturing facilities to provide data needed to improve COPV quality and consistency. This project also investigates other scanning techniques that will enhance the system to more completely meet manufacturing needs, thus transforming the profilometer into what has been termed the "Universal Manufacturing COPV Scanner".

Saulsberry, Regor↗

A Linear Programming Approach to the Development of Contrail Reduction Strategies Satisfying Operationally Feasible Constraints

A class of strategies has been proposed to reduce contrail formation in the United States airspace. A 3D grid based on weather data and the cruising altitude level of aircraft is adjusted to avoid the persistent contrail potential area with the consideration to fuel-efficiency. In this paper, the authors introduce a contrail avoidance strategy on 3D grid by considering additional operationally feasible constraints from an air traffic controller's aspect. First, shifting too many aircraft to the same cruising level will make the miles-in-trail at this level smaller than the safety separation threshold. Furthermore, the high density of aircraft at one cruising level may exceed the workload for the traffic controller. Therefore, in our new model we restrict the number of total aircraft at each level. Second, the aircraft count variation for successive intervals cannot be too drastic since the workload to manage climbing/descending aircraft is much larger than managing cruising aircraft. The contrail reduction is formulated as an integer-programming problem and the problem is shown to have the property of total unimodularity. Solving the corresponding relaxed linear programming with the simplex method provides an optimal and integral solution to the problem. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Wei, Peng↗

Project 5S: A Safe Stepping Stone into the Solar System

The human exploration program, at least in NASA, has been directed to move beyond the Moon and travel on a flexible path into the solar system. Reaching a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is a major human space flight goal but such missions have tight times and life-support requirements that require huge steps from current capabilities. An objective between the Moon and a NEA is needed. Example interim objectives are the Lagrangian points in either the Sun-Earth or Earth-Moon (EM) system. The nearest of these points beyond the Moon is E-M L2. The Lagrangian points are empty (as far as we know). As objectives for human flight,it has been argued that they suffer from a lack of public interest and of meaningful objectives for astronaut operations. To provide a physical target, a robotic spacecraft could retrieve a small NEA and bring it to a Lagrangian or other nearer-Earth point to be accessed and utilized for human-mission objectives. This paper reports on the results of a recently completed study of an asteroid retrieval mission sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) at the California Institute of Technology. The study included an evaluation of potential targets, mission objectives, mission and system design, and potential capture mechanisms. The study concluded that, while challenging, there are no fundamental show stoppers and that such a mission would be possible with technology expected to be available in this decade. The final destination selected (for safety and mission operations) was high lunar orbit. Two options for target selection are considered: (i) retrieving a small (7 meter) NEA with a mass of order 500,000 kg, and (ii) taking a similar size boulder of a large known carbonaceous NEA. Several areas of technology and program requirements were identified, but the most important conclusion was that this approach enables meeting a goal of humans going to a NEA by the mid-2020s. The advantages and benefits for human exploration are considerable as are the advances that would be made in space-resource utilization and science for further exploration and development of the solar system. The combination of the robotic mission to move the asteroid and the human mission to go to its new destination and conduct astronaut operations there would provide a boost and purpose to human space flight.

asteroid retrieval↗

Preliminary Design of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control System of the Altair Lunar Lander

Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) is the measurement and control of spacecraft position, velocity, and attitude in support of mission objectives. This paper provides an overview of a preliminary design of the GN&C system of the Lunar Lander Altair. Key functions performed by the GN&C system in various mission phases will first be described. A set of placeholder GN&C sensors that is needed to support these functions is next described. To meet Crew safety requirements, there must be high degrees of redundancy in the selected sensor configuration. Two sets of thrusters, one on the Ascent Module (AM) and the other on the Descent Module (DM), will be used by the GN&C system. The DM thrusters will be used, among other purposes, to perform course correction burns during the Trans-lunar Coast. The AM thrusters will be used, among other purposes, to perform precise angular and translational controls of the ascent module in order to dock the ascent module with Orion. Navigation is the process of measurement and control of the spacecraft's "state" (both the position and velocity vectors of the spacecraft). Tracking data from the Earth-Based Ground System (tracking antennas) as well as data from onboard optical sensors will be used to estimate the vehicle state. A driving navigation requirement is to land Altair on the Moon with a landing accuracy that is better than 1 km (radial 95%). Preliminary performance of the Altair GN&C design, relative to this and other navigation requirements, will be given. Guidance is the onboard process that uses the estimated state vector, crew inputs, and pre-computed reference trajectories to guide both the rotational and the translational motions of the spacecraft during powered flight phases. Design objectives of reference trajectories for various mission phases vary. For example, the reference trajectory for the descent "approach" phase (the last 3-4 minutes before touchdown) will sacrifice fuel utilization efficiency in order to provide landing site visibility for both the crew and the terrain hazard detection sensor system. One output of Guidance is the steering angle commands sent to the 2 degree-of-freedom (dof) gimbal actuation system of the descent engine. The engine gimbal actuation system is controlled by a Thrust Vector Control algorithm that is designed taking into account the large quantities of sloshing liquids in tanks mounted on Altair. In this early design phase of Altair, the GN&C system is described only briefly in this paper and the emphasis is on the GN&C architecture (that is still evolving). Multiple companion papers will provide details that are related to navigation, optical navigation, guidance, fuel sloshing, rendezvous and docking, machine-pilot interactions, and others. The similarities and differences of GN&C designs for Lunar and Mars landers are briefly compared.

Lee, Allan Y.↗