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Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

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Early Career Paths at Los Alamos National Laboratory

We represent a selection of early career staff at LANL with backgrounds in mathematics. There are many possible paths to a position at LANL. The lab has very active graduate research and postdoctoral programs, and it is not uncommon for graduate students to become postdocs, who can then be “converted” to staff. Conversion from being a postdoc is not the only route to a position at LANL, nor is it a guarantee, but most of us did postdocs here before becoming staff. Being a postdoc here also gives you an idea of whether you’d like living in northern New Mexico, a rugged, beautiful, and somewhat remote area. It is important to say here that citizenship is not a requirement for many of the positions at the lab. The lab historically and currently welcomes investigators from all over the world. LANL offers a broad spectrum of mathematical challenges that are largely problem driven. Particularly to those who feel that academic mathematics can be stove-piped, with a focus on deep but not necessarily broad expertise, the LANL environment gives the flexibility to move and grow in many different directions. The lab encourages a team-based approach to problems, which not only enhances the breadth of our approach to solving problems, but also gives team members access to new fields. From the outside (academia), however, it can be difficult to see how fields map between academia and the lab. This is one of the reasons that having interaction with the lab as a graduate student or postdoc can be helpful in understanding if the environment would be a good match for you. An important advantage of working at the lab is our high visibility both in academia, as well as in industry and the government. Because of its mission-driven projects, LANL, and more broadly the Department of Energy Laboratories, help set research directions that are picked up by researchers in academia. For this reason, many lab staff have worked at LANL for a number of years, then have transferred into academia after having set the agenda for their field of expertise. Below, we will share some of our experiences, opinions, and reflections in order to give the reader a feel for our own early career experiences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗