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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Global drivers of local water stresses and global responses to local water policies in the United States

Abstract The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Techniques for Vegetation Removal from UAV-Based Photogrammetric DSM near WIPP Land Withdrawal Act Boundary, NM

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is located within New Mexico's karst landscape and is the United States' only deep geologic radioactive waste repository which isolates transuranic waste from defense activities underground in a bedded salt formation. Characteristic karst topography in this region is made up of material (such as limestone) that can be dissolved by water over a long period of time, and includes features such as springs, surface streams, sinking streams, caves, and sinkholes. Karst features can potentially impact the integrity of the waste repository in the future and compromise WIPP's performance, particularly when coupled with incompatible land-use activities within the Land Withdrawal Act (LWA) boundary as well as increased water withdrawals outside the LWA. In order to better capture the ground surface topography to support hydrology modeling efforts, the U.S. DOE has enlisted FIU to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). In a previous field study, a high-resolution digital surface model (DSM) of an adjacent representative site, Basin 6, was developed by photogrammetry using aerial images captured with unmanned aerial vehicles. The DSM generated was based on point clouds representing the entire landscapes, including points of terrain, vegetation and infrastructure. These above-ground features need to be removed to create a DSM/DEM with good representation of the bare ground. In recent years, many techniques including both pre- and post-processing of DSMs, were developed for vegetation removal with varied success. This research focuses on applying and comparing various vegetation removal methods using point clouds generated of the Basin 6 pilot study area. The 3D RGB-based point cloud classification using Python scripts was a modification of the procedure by Themistocleous (2019). The method using Liblas classifies the point cloud three-dimensionally, whereas the method by Themistocleous (2019) is two-dimensional. The preliminary result of the method using Liblas, however, still had a large amount of vegetation remaining compared to the Pix4D Machine Learning method. The vegetation layer remains highly visible in the DEMs processed using the vegetation indices as opposed to the Pix4D Machine Learning method, which produces a DEM where mostly bare ground is seen. Further modifications to the input parameters are required to improve the vegetation vs. bare ground classification using this approach. The next step will be to improve the method using Liblas and to also test other vegetation removal methods found in the literature review to compare them against the two described here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Representing Climate Impacts in Scenaros

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Scenarios of future emissions and land use have been most commonly produced without accounting for the effects that climate impacts linked to those emissions and land use changes may have. The questions of how important such impacts could be, at the regional or global scale, has become an increasingly cogent one. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we implement climate impacts on water supply, agricultural productivity, and energy demand driven by climatic impact drivers whose evolution over the 21st century is representative of a climate consistent with GCAM's reference scenario and compare the output to the reference at both regional and global scales. We show that the impacts from the version of GCAM that uses GDP as an exogenous input are not sufficient to bend emission pathways at the global scale. However, we see effects emerge at the regional scale in terms of emissions, among other metrics linked to water, land and energy. We expect the impacts to become more significant at an aggregate, global scale in a forthcoming version of the model with endogenous GDP. Meanwhile, we document the mechanisms that drive the difference at regional scales which could still be significant in their impacts for individual economies and populations. Presenters: Dr. Claudia Tebaldi (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator(s): Jennifer Morris (MSD CoP SSG member), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 5, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Climate Scenarios↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hanford Site Raptor Nest Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2022

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL), conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOERL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2024

The U.S. Department of Energy, Hanford Field Office (HFO) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing HFO activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under HFO stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that HFO, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy, Hanford Field Office (HFO) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing HFO activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under HFO stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that HFO, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2022

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2021

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL), conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2019

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2018

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Redd Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2017

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing DOE-RL activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). DOE/EIS-0222, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement (CLUP) evaluates the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years, and ensures that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conduct activities on the Hanford Site in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Oil and Natural Gas Development near and beneath Uranium Tailings Cells and Other Remediated Sites - 20358

DOE LM is responsible for maintaining remedies at more than 50 remediated sites that require active long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). Institutional controls (ICs) were established to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination by controlling land use, restricting access to potential hazards, and making the public aware of potential dangers from the residual contamination. ICs for each site were developed based on current and foreseeable conditions; however, these controls should evolve to mitigate potential human health and other environmental risks from unanticipated changes in activities or site conditions. Activities conducted beyond the DOE long-term care boundaries by non-DOE parties may impact the effectiveness of ICs or even the long-term stability of disposal cells and groundwater remedies. Several sites that LM manages or that will transfer to LM for LTS and M are in active oil and gas production basins. The sites are associated with uranium ore milling or nuclear test sites and have been remediated or are in the process of remediation and have no ongoing DOE mission. Particularly since 2005, hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') combined with directional drilling has dramatically increased oil and natural gas (oil/gas) production in the United States, now making it the number one hydrocarbon-producing country. Fracking has allowed production from shale and other rocks of low natural permeability that were historically not considered viable oil/gas resources. Also, because wellbores can now be drilled as many as 5 kilometers or more horizontally, hydrocarbons can be recovered from zones without having access to the surface above them. Drilling activity near Rulison, Colorado, the location of an underground nuclear detonation managed by LM, has raised public concerns that remnant radioactivity in the detonation zone could migrate to producing wells and enter the natural gas distribution system. At sites like the Falls City, Texas, Disposal site, transitioned to LM with a split estate, increased production in the region has resulted in wellbores beneath the long-term care boundary of the site. While the DOE license for Falls City was approved by the NRC in 1997 without the acquisition of the subsurface rights, NRC has raised concerns on whether this activity impacts the integrity of the cell and/or groundwater remedies. In Wyoming, LM is anticipating receiving the license for the Bear Creek site and manages the Spook site, both locations of uranium mill tailings disposal cells. These Wyoming sites are in an active region of major oil and gas development. This change in surrounding land use will require LM to work collaboratively with NRC to address these concerns. At several DOE sites radioactive waste, and often intermixed nonradioactive constituents, is permanently isolated in engineered disposal cells. At other sites, residual contamination can be present in groundwater, blast cavities, and infinite amounts within soil. Areas targeted for oil and gas development at the Texas and Wyoming sites range from depths of 2440 to 3350 meters (8000-11000 feet) below ground surface. When most site remedies were designed, oil and gas development was not considered to be an issue within the site boundary. With the more recent uses of directional drilling, fracking, and associated wastewater injections, the evaluative criteria for incoming sites and ICs for managing long-term protectiveness and regulatory compliance are changing. Although DOE surface ownership was previously thought to be a robust IC to prevent surface and subsurface development, particularly at disposal sites, that may no longer be the case. Whereas the subsurface development at Texas and Wyoming sites is currently occurring at thousands of meters beneath the surface, shallower and direct onsite development would be more of a concern for LM. The energy introduced when a well is hydraulically fractured causes microseismic events (magnitude -2 to 1.0) as the fractures propagate but does not directly cause seismic events (earthquakes) of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures. Additionally, the extent of the hydraulic fractures is limited to the targeted depths, which are far below the surface. However, earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures have been attributed to the injection of wastewater into disposal wells. States that have experienced these effects have enacted regulations that limit the rate and pressures that wastewater can be injected into disposal wells. Items LM may consider are the need for monitoring the volume of water injected into nearby disposal wells and possibly installing seismic stations at sites most susceptible to damage. While the need to demonstrate that no impact from oil and gas extraction activities on a site groundwater remedy or disposal cells will vary from site to site, LM is assessing risk criteria for this activity. Though LM has not experienced an issue yet at a uranium tailings disposal site, it cannot assume that there will be none, and must address NRC concerns. LM is building on past experiences at other sites and beginning to form new processes with the hope that these concepts can be applied for other future sites. (authors)

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Doppler Lidar Measurements of Wind Variability and LLJ Properties in Central Oklahoma during the August 2017 Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment

Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs) are an important nocturnal source of wind energy in the U.S. Great Plains. An August 2017 lidar-based field-measurement campaign [the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE)] studied LLJs over the central SGP site in Oklahoma and found nearly equal occurrences of the usual southerly jets and postfrontal northeasterly jets—typically rare during this season—for an opportunity to compare the two types of LLJs during this month. Southerly winds were stronger than the northeasterlies by more than 4 m s −1 on average, reflecting a significantly higher frequency of winds stronger than 12 m s −1 . The analysis of this dataset has been expanded to other SGP Doppler-lidar sites to quantify the variability of winds and LLJ properties between sites of different land use. Geographic variations of winds over the study area were noted: on southerly wind nights, the winds blew stronger at the highest, westernmost sites by 2 m s −1 , whereas on the northeasterly flow nights, the easternmost sites had the strongest wind speeds. Lidar measurements at 5 sites during August 2017, contrasted to the 2016–21 summertime data, revealed unusual wind and LLJ conditions. Temporal hodographs using hourly averaged winds at multiple heights revealed unorganized behavior in the turbulent stable boundary layer (SBL) below the jet nose. Above the nose, some nights showed veering qualitatively similar to inertial oscillation (IO) behavior, but at amplitudes much smaller than expected for an IO, whereas other nights showed little veering. Vertical hodographs had a linear shape in the SBL, indicating little directional shear there, and veering above, resulting in a hook-shaped hodograph with height. Significance Statement Doppler-lidar measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) were used to quantify the variability of winds and low-level jet (LLJ) properties between five sites of different land use and wind regimes across this area. Knowledge of wind and LLJ structure and dynamics is important for many applications, and strong southerly LLJ winds at night are an important resource for wind energy. The analysis of multiyear (2016–21) summertime LLJ parameters provided insight into the LLJ climatology in this part of the Great Plains.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

A HPC Theory-Guided Machine Learning Cyberinfrastructure for Communicating Hydrometeorological Data Across Scales

High-resolution predictions of hydrometeorological variables are critical for supporting hydropower generation decisions and flood control at hydroelectric power plants. Traditional climate and hydrologic models rely on the numerical simulation of detailed physical processes. Therefore, running these simulations is time-, labor-, and computation-intensive. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution in these modeling outputs could lead to cubic increases in both the simulation time and computational demands, rendering high-resolution hydrometeorological predictions expensive and impractical. Many past studies apply the super resolution (SR) technique to downscale climate models using deep learners. However, deep learners are deemed “black-boxes,” as their derivation processes from low-resolution outputs to high-resolution outputs are often hidden. Their results are difficult for domain scientists to interpret and validate. Thus, there is a need for an exploratory machine learning approach that can partially integrate domain-specific theory and knowledge into the data-driven mapping process between simulation outputs of different spatial scales. The domain-specific theory and knowledge can be incorporated into the data model through an inductive approach in which process-related environmental variables are used and analyzed as key drivers (i.e., environmental surrogates) to reflect the complex physical processes. Many of these variables, such as land use land cover, soil types, topography, digital elevation, air temperature, and various watershed characteristics, can be directly measured through sensors or remote sensing techniques. Additionally, SR applications that can downscale hydrological and hydrodynamics models to efficiently produce high-resolution (1 m) flood depth grids are still rare. Since the flood depth grid can be used to support critical decisions for flood control operation at hydroelectric power plants, it is crucial to enable an SR-based capability for interpolating high-resolution flood inundation maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbon‐Neutral Pathways for the United States

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points to the need for carbon neutrality by mid‐century. Achieving this in the United States in only 30 years will be challenging, and practical pathways detailing the technologies, infrastructure, costs, and tradeoffs involved are needed. Modeling the entire U.S. energy and industrial system with new analysis tools that capture synergies not represented in sector‐specific or integrated assessment models, we created multiple pathways to net zero and net negative CO 2 emissions by 2050. They met all forecast U.S. energy needs at a net cost of 0.2–1.2% of GDP in 2050, using only commercial or near‐commercial technologies, and requiring no early retirement of existing infrastructure. Pathways with constraints on consumer behavior, land use, biomass use, and technology choices (e.g., no nuclear) met the target but at higher cost. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and carbon capture. Least‐cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system was feasible but had higher cost and land use. We found multiple feasible options for supplying low‐carbon fuels for non‐electrifiable end uses in industry, freight, and aviation, which were not required in bulk until after 2035. In the next decade, the actions required in all pathways were similar: expand renewable capacity 3.5 fold, retire coal, maintain existing gas generating capacity, and increase electric vehicle and heat pump sales to >50% of market share. This study provides a playbook for carbon neutrality policy with concrete near‐term priorities.

Williams, James H.↗