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At least 253 records · Page 14

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James↗

Benefits and Pitfalls of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data Assimilation

Satellite observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 sq km at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Nonetheless, data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This presentation illustrates some of the benefits and drawbacks of assimilating TWS observations from GRACE into a land surface model over the continental United States and India. The assimilation scheme yields improved skill metrics for groundwater compared to the no-assimilation simulations. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture. Further, GRACE observes TWS depletion associated with anthropogenic groundwater extraction. Results from the assimilation emphasize the importance of representing anthropogenic processes in land surface modeling and data assimilation systems.

TWS↗

Assessment of Retrieved GMI Emissivity Over Land, Snow and Sea Ice in the GEOS System

Measurements from microwave sounders and imagers provide a valuable source of information including atmospheric temperature and water vapor in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems that assimilate these observations directly over water surfaces (oceans and other large water bodies). In a recent decadal survey, targeted observables in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) were cited as a key need for future observations (NASEM, 2018). Microwave observations which sense in the PBL are currently available, however, utilizing surface-sensitive microwave observations for atmospheric data assimilation remains a challenge over land, snow and sea ice. This is in part due to the inability of surface emissivity models used by NWP data assimilation systems to simulate observations with sufficient accuracy. The GEOS-ADAS (Todling and el Akkraoui, 2018) which utilizes the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) (Han, 2006; Chen 2009) is no exception. The ECMWF system has retrieved instantaneous surface emissivity from surface-sensitive channels for SSMI/S and MHS radiance observations, and apply these estimates to the closest channels higher in frequency (Baordo and Geer 2016) in the calculation of simulated radiances. This approach currently is also being tested in the GEOS-ADAS for AMSU-A and ATMS radiances (Zhu et al. 2021). No or minimal emissivity spectral variability has been assumed in the above-mentioned studies. Recently, work by Munchak et al., 2020 (hereby referred to as M2020) provided a new database for emissivity over land, snow and sea ice retrieved from the NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Compared with Tool to Estimate Land Surface Emissivities at Microwave (TELSEM2; Wang et al., 2017), M2020 provides emissivities for more frequencies(i.e., 10.7 GHz V/H). Moreover, this database is unique in that it utilizes both active and passive data to retrieve surface emissivity and normalized radar cross section. While the emissivity values may be useful for other sensors, they are most applicable to the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). In this work the GEOS-ADAS is modified to utilize emissivity values from Munchak et al, 2020 in place of values used by CRTM. Presently, only GMI radiances over ocean are used in the operational GEOS-ADAS. This study will focus on the GMI radiances over land, snow, and ice, as a first attempt to evaluate GMI radiances over these non-water surface types. Two cases are then presented, one with one week of observation minus background departures using the modified GEOS-ADAS, and one utilizing the original GEOS-ADAS. It should be noted that the surface emissivity models in CRTM are not state of the art and are scheduled to be replaced by the Community Surface Emissivity Module (CSEM; Chen and Weng, 2016). Simulations using default CRTM emissivity values are used merely as reference comparing against M2020, and is not a thorough comparison against other more state of the art modules such as CSEM.

GMI↗

Assessment of Retrieved GMI Emissivity Over Land, Snow, and Sea Ice in the GEOS System

Directly assimilating microwave radiances over land, snow and sea ice remains a significant challenge for data assimilation systems. These data assimilation systems are critical to the success of global numerical weather prediction systems including the Global Earth Observing System-Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS). Extending more surface sensitive microwave channels over land, snow and ice could provide a needed source of data for Numerical Weather Prediction particularly in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Unfortunately, the accuracy of emissivity models currently available within the GEOS-ADAS along with other data assimilation systems are insufficient to simulate and assimilate radiances. Recently, Munchak et al. (2020) published a 5-year climatological database for retrieved microwave emissivity from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) aboard the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). In this work the database is utilized by modifying the GEOS-ADAS to use this emissivity database in place of the default emissivity value available in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), which is the fast radiative transfer model used by the GEOS-ADAS. As a first step, the GEOS-ADAS is run in a so-called “stand-alone” mode to simulate radiances from GMI using the default CRTM emissivity, and replacing the default CRTM emissivity models with values from Munchak et al, 2020. The simulated observations using Munchak et al., 2020 agree more closely with observations from GMI. These results are presented along with a discussion of the implication for GMI observations within the GEOS-ADAS.

GPM↗

Current and Future Plans of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO)

The mission of the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to advance the state of the art of data assimilation and produce research-quality assimilated data sets which make optimal use of space-based observations. Development efforts over the last few years have focused on delivering a production data assimilation system in support of NASA's Terra platform. That system, called the Goddard Earth Observing System - version 2 or GEOS-2, represents a major upgrade to the baseline GEOS-1 system employed in NASA's first reanalysis effort. GEOS-2 includes a physical-space three dimensional variational analysis algorithm (the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System or PSAS) and numerous improvements to the general circulation model. The latter include a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) land surface scheme, a level 2.5 moist turbulence scheme and new Short Wave (SW) and Long Wave (LW) radiation code. The system also includes an off-line ozone assimilation system, and the capability to assimilate scatterometer surface winds, and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) moisture data. GEOS-2 is currently run at 1 degree horizontal resolution and 48 levels extending to O.Olmb. Experimental versions of GEOS-2 are run with a global stretched grid allowing enhanced (e.g. 1/4 deg) regional resolution. Other capabilities being developed include, the assimilation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and Global Positioning System (GPS) data, an off-line land surface assimilation system, and a retrospective analysis scheme. The DAO is also engaged in a number of collaborative efforts to help accelerate the development of the next generation data assimilation system. These include, a joint modeling effort between the DAO and NCAR/CGDD to develop a new Global Circulation Model (GCM), and a Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DOE/LLNL) collaboration on model parallelization. Plans for the next reanalysis will be discussed in the context of current and near term system quality and computing capabilities, and the need for multiple reanalysis products.

Atlas, Robert↗

Attribution of Flux Partitioning Variations Between Land Surface Models over the Continental U.S.

Accurate quantification of the terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) components of plant transpiration (T), soil evaporation (E) and evaporation of the intercepted water (I) is necessary for improving our understanding of the links between the carbon and water cycles. Recent studies have noted that, among the modeled estimates, large disagreements exist in the relative contributions of T, E and I to the total ET. As these models are often used in data assimilation environments for incorporating and extending ET relevant remote sensing measurements, understanding the sources of inter-model differences in ET components is also necessary for improving the utilization of such remote sensing measurements. This study quantifies the contributions of two key factors explaining inter-model disagreements to the uncertainty in total ET: (1) contribution of the local partitioning and (2) regional distribution of ET. The analysis is conducted by using outputs from a suite of land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) configuration. For most of these models, transpiration is the dominant component of the ET partition. The results indicate that the uncertainty in local partitioning dominates the inter-model spread in modeled soil evaporation E. The inter-model differences in T are dominated by the uncertainty in the distribution of ET over the Eastern U.S. and the local partitioning uncertainty in the Western U.S. The results also indicate that uncertainty in the T estimates is the primary driver of total ET errors. Over the majority of the U.S., the contribution of the two factors of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is non-trivial.

uncertainty↗

Attribution of Flux Partitioning Variations Between Land Surface Models Over the Continental U.S.

Accurate quantification of the terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) components of plant transpiration (T), soil evaporation (E) and evaporation of the intercepted water (I) is necessary for improving our understanding of the links between the carbon and water cycles. Recent studies have noted that, among the modeled estimates, large disagreements exist in the relative contributions of T, E and I to the total ET. As these models are often used in data assimilation environments for incorporating and extending ET relevant remote sensing measurements, understanding the sources of inter-model differences in ET components is also necessary for improving the utilization of such remote sensing measurements. This study quantifies the contributions of two key factors explaining inter-model disagreements to the uncertainty in total ET: (1) contribution of the local partitioning and (2) regional distribution of ET. The analysis is conducted by using outputs from a suite of land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) configuration. For most of these models, transpiration is the dominant component of the ET partition. The results indicate that the uncertainty in local partitioning dominates the inter-model spread in modeled soil evaporation E. The inter-model differences in T are dominated by the uncertainty in the distribution of ET over the Eastern U.S. and the local partitioning uncertainty in the Western U.S. The results also indicate that uncertainty in the T estimates is the primary driver of total ET errors. Over the majority of the U.S., the contribution of the two factors of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is non-trivial.

evapotranspiration partitioning; transpiration; so↗

Comparison of Surface Ground Temperature from Satellite Observations and the Off-Line Land Surface GEOS Assimilation System

The surface ground temperature (Tg) is an important meteorological variable, because it represents an integrated thermal state of the land surface determined by a complex surface energy budget. Furthermore, Tg affects both the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Through these fluxes. the surface budget is coupled with the atmosphere above. Accurate Tg data are useful for estimating the surface radiation budget and fluxes, as well as soil moisture. Tg is not included in conventional synoptical weather station reports. Currently, satellites provide Tg estimates globally. It is necessary to carefully consider appropriate methods of using these satellite data in a data assimilation system. Recently, an Off-line Land surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system was implemented at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA-GSFC. One of the goals of OLGA is to assimilate satellite-derived Tg data. Prior to the Tg assimilation, a thorough investigation of satellite- and model-derived Tg, including error estimates, is required. In this study we examine the Tg from the n Project (ISCCP DI) data and the OLGA simulations. The ISCCP data used here are 3-hourly DI data (2.5x2.5 degree resolution) for 1992 summer months (June, July, and August) and winter months (January and February). The model Tg for the same periods were generated by OLGA. The forcing data for this OLGA 1992 simulation were generated from the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) at Data Assimilation Office NASA-GSFC. We examine the discrepancies between ISCCP and OLGA Tg with a focus on its spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly on the diurnal cycle. The error statistics in both data sets, including bias, will be estimated. The impact of surface properties, including vegetation cover and type, topography, etc, on the discrepancies will be addressed.

Yang, R.↗

Implementation of Coupled Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

The NASA/NCAR Finite Volume GCM (fvGCM) with the NCAR CLM (Community Land Model) version 2.0 was integrated into the NASA/GMAO Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS). A new method was developed for coupled skin temperature assimilation and bias correction where the analysis increment and bias correction term is passed into the CLM2 and considered a forcing term in the solution to the energy balance. For our purposes, the fvDAS CLM2 was run at 1 deg. x 1.25 deg. horizontal resolution with 55 vertical levels. We assimilate the ISCCP-DX (30 km resolution) surface temperature product. The atmospheric analysis was performed 6-hourly, while the skin temperature analysis was performed 3-hourly. The bias correction term, which was updated at the analysis times, was added to the skin temperature tendency equation at every timestep. In this presentation, we focus on the validation of the surface energy budget at the in situ reference sites for the Coordinated Enhanced Observation Period (CEOP). We will concentrate on sites that include independent skin temperature measurements and complete energy budget observations for the month of July 2001. In addition, MODIS skin temperature will be used for validation. Several assimilations were conducted and preliminary results will be presented.

Radakovich, Jon↗

Optimization of a Radiative Transfer Forward Operator for Simulating SMOS Brightness Temperatures over the Upper Mississippi Basin, USA

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission is routinely providing global multi-angular observations of brightness temperature (TB) at both horizontal and vertical polarization with a 3-day repeat period. The assimilation of such data into a land surface model (LSM) may improve the skill of operational flood forecasts through an improved estimation of soil moisture (SM). To accommodate for the direct assimilation of the SMOS TB data, the LSM needs to be coupled with a radiative transfer model (RTM), serving as a forward operator for the simulation of multi-angular and multi-polarization top of atmosphere TBs. This study investigates the use of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) LSM coupled with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform (CMEM) for simulating SMOS TB observations over the Upper Mississippi basin, USA. For a period of 2 years (2010-2011), a comparison between SMOS TBs and simulations with literature-based RTM parameters reveals a basin averaged bias of 30K. Therefore, time series of SMOS TB observations are used to investigate ways for mitigating these large biases. Specifically, the study demonstrates the impact of the LSM soil moisture climatology in the magnitude of TB biases. After CDF matching the SM climatology of the LSM to SMOS retrievals, the average bias decreases from 30K to less than 5K. Further improvements can be made through calibration of RTM parameters related to the modeling of surface roughness and vegetation. Consequently, it can be concluded that SM rescaling and RTM optimization are efficient means for mitigating biases and form a necessary preparatory step for data assimilation.

SMOS↗

Impact of Design Factors for ESA CCI Satellite Soil Moisture Data Assimilation over Europe

In this study, soil moisture retrievals of the combined active–passive ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture product are assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model over Europe using a one-dimensional ensemble Kalman filter and an 18-yr study period. The performance of the data assimilation (DA) system is evaluated by comparing it with a model-only experiment (at in situ sites) and by assessing statistics of innovations and increments as DA diagnostics (over the entire domain). For both assessments, we explore the impact of three design choices, resulting in the following insights. 1) The magnitude of the assumed observation errors strongly affects the skill improvements evaluated against in situ stations and internal diagnostics. 2) Choosing between climatological or monthly cumulative distribution function matching as the observation bias correction method only has a marginal effect on the in situ skill of the DA system. However, the internal diagnostics suggest a more robust system parameterization if the observations are rescaled monthly. 3) The choice of atmospheric reanalysis dataset to force the land surface model affects the model-only skill and the DA skill improvements. The model-only skill is higher with input from the MERRA-2 than with input from the ERA5 reanalysis, resulting in larger DA skill improvements for the latter. Additionally, we show that the added value of the DA strongly depends on the quality of the satellite retrievals and land cover, with the most substantial soil moisture skill improvements occurring over croplands and skill degradation occurring over densely forested areas.

Soil moisture↗

1D Variational Assimilation of TOVS/ATOVS Level 1b Data

Recently, it has been shown that the use of observations from satellite-borne microwave and infrared radiometers in data assimilation systems consistently increases forecast skill. Considerable effort has been expended over the past two decades, particularly with the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), to achieve this result. The positive impact on forecast skill has resulted from improvements in quality control algorithms, systematic error correction schemes, and data assimilation systems. Despite these recent advances, there are still many issues regarding the use of satellite data in data assimilation systems that remain unresolved. For example, at several centers, much of the TOVS data are not assimilated over land as a result of the difficulty in specifying the surface emissivity. In this study, we add the microwave surface emissivity to the state vector so that it is retrieved rather than specified by a model. The LDVAR temperature and humidity information is then assimilated interactively into the Goddard Earth Observing System - Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS). Results of 1DVAR assimilations with both TOVS and ATOVS will be shown. We will compare the results obtained with HIRS/MSU/SSU and HIRS/AMSU-A2.

Joiner, J.↗

Simulations of Aerosol Microphysics in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

Aerosol-cloud-chemistry interactions have potentially large but uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. One path to addressing these uncertainties is to construct models that incorporate various components of the Earth system and to test these models against data. To that end, we have previously incorporated the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5). GEOS-5 provides a platform for Earth system modeling, incorporating atmospheric and ocean general circulation models, a land surface model, a data assimilation system, and treatments of atmospheric chemistry and hydrologic cycle. Including GOCART online in this framework has provided a path for interactive aerosol-climate studies; however, GOCART only tracks the mass of aerosols as external mixtures and does not include the detailed treatments of aerosol size distribution and composition (internal mixtures) needed for aerosol-cloud-chemistry-climate studies. To address that need we have incorporated the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) online in GEOS-5. CARMA is a sectional aerosol-cloud microphysical model, capable of treating both aerosol size and composition explicitly be resolving the aerosol distribution into a variable number of size and composition groupings. Here we present first simulations of dust, sea salt, and smoke aerosols in GEOS-5 as treated by CARMA. These simulations are compared to available aerosol satellite, ground, and aircraft data and as well compared to the simulated distributions in our current GOCART based system.

Colarco, Peter↗

Downscaling Soil Moisture in the Southern Great Plains Through a Calibrated Multifractal Model for Land Surface Modeling Applications

Accounting for small-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture (theta) is required to enhance the predictive skill of land surface models. In this paper, we present the results of the development, calibration, and performance evaluation of a downscaling model based on multifractal theory using aircraft!based (800 m) theta estimates collected during the southern Great Plains experiment in 1997 (SGP97).We first demonstrate the presence of scale invariance and multifractality in theta fields of nine square domains of size 25.6 x 25.6 sq km, approximately a satellite footprint. Then, we estimate the downscaling model parameters and evaluate the model performance using a set of different calibration approaches. Results reveal that small-scale theta distributions are adequately reproduced across the entire region when coarse predictors include a dynamic component (i.e., the spatial mean soil moisture ) and a stationary contribution accounting for static features (i.e., topography, soil texture, vegetation). For wet conditions, we found similar multifractal properties of soil moisture across all domains, which we ascribe to the signature of rainfall spatial variability. For drier states, the theta fields in the northern domains are more intermittent than in southern domains, likely because of differences in the distribution of vegetation coverage. Through our analyses, we propose a regional downscaling relation for coarse, satellite-based soil moisture estimates, based on ancillary information (static and dynamic landscape features), which can be used in the study area to characterize statistical properties of small-scale theta distribution required by land surface models and data assimilation systems.

Mascaro, Giuseppe↗

Bridging the Gap Between the iLEAPS and GEWEX Land-Surface Modeling Communities

Models of Earth's weather and climate require fluxes of momentum, energy, and moisture across the land-atmosphere interface to solve the equations of atmospheric physics and dynamics. Just as atmospheric models can, and do, differ between weather and climate applications, mostly related to issues of scale, resolved or parameterised physics,and computational requirements, so too can the land models that provide the required surface fluxes differ between weather and climate models. Here, however, the issue is less one of scale-dependent parameterisations.Computational demands can influence other minor land model differences, especially with respect to initialisation, data assimilation, and forecast skill. However, the distinction among land models (and their development and application) is largely driven by the different science and research needs of the weather and climate communities.

GEWEX↗

Groundwater and Terrestrial Water Storage

Groundwater, soil moisture, surface water, snow, and ice are the components of terrestrial water storage (TWS). On multi-annual timescales groundwater typically controls TWS variability, except in permanently frozen regions (Li et al. 2015). Even on an annual basis TWS changes are a reasonable proxy for groundwater storage changes, the latter being insufficiently observed in most of the world. From 2002 to 2017 the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al. 2004) and since 2018 the GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) satellite missions have enabled estimation of TWS anomalies (departures from the long-term mean) based on precise observations of variations in Earth’s gravity field. To bridge the 11-month gap between GRACE and GRACE-FO we make use of output from a land surface model that assimilates data from both missions (Li et al. 2019)

Matthew Rodell↗

Bias-Correcting Carbon Fluxes Derived From Land-Surface Satellite Data for Retrospective and Near Real-Time Assimilation Systems

The ability to monitor and understand natural and anthropogenic variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) is a growing need of many stakeholders across the world. Systems that assimilate satellite observations, given their short latency and dense spatial coverage, into high resolution global models are valuable, if not essential, tools for addressing this need. A notable drawback of modern assimilation systems is the long latency of many vital in-put datasets, e.g., inventories, in situ measurements, and re-processed remote-sensing data can trail the current date by months to years. This paper describes techniques for bias-correcting surface fluxes derived from satellite observations of the Earth’s surface to be consistent with constraints from inventories and in situ CO2 datasets. The techniques are applicable in both short-term forecasts and retrospective simulations, thus taking advantage of the coverage and short latency of satellite data while reproducing the major features of long-term inventory and in situ records. Our approach begins with a standard collection of diagnostic fluxes which incorporate a variety of remote-sensing driver data, viz. vegetation indices, fire radiative power, and nighttime lights. We then apply an empirical sink so that global budgets of the diagnostic fluxes match given atmospheric and oceanic growth rates for each year. This step removes coherent, systematic flux errors that produce biases inCO2which mask the signals an assimilation system hopes to capture. Depending on the simulation mode, the empirical sink uses different choices of atmospheric growth rates: estimates based on observations in retrospective mode and projections based on seasonal fore-casts of sea surface temperature in forecasting mode. The retrospective fluxes, when used in simulations with NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), reproduce marine boundary layer measurements with comparable skill to those using fluxes from a modern inversion system. The forecasted fluxes show promising accuracy in their application to the analysis of changes in the carbon cycle as they occur.

CO2↗