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DOE OSTI2024

National Pollinator-Solar Energy Research Network

Pollinators, which are important to global food systems and economically linked to local agricultural activities, are declining globally due to land-cover change and land management practices. Solar energy development is a driver of a land-use change that has the potential to either reduce or promote pollinator habitat. To date, pollinators are the most widely addressed wildlife group in solar energy development (e.g., through state pollinator habitat scorecards for solar facilities). Yet, many questions remain about pollinator-solar energy interactions, requiring research that tests observations and defines pollinator-friendly solar.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Maldives Climate II: Evaluating the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Human Development and Coastal Infrastructure

The Republic of the Maldives is a low-lying island nation in the Indian Ocean which has experienced rapid urbanization, landcover changes, and sea level rise over recent years. The growth of tourism, coastal erosion, and urbanization have all driven land reclamation efforts across many islands. As in-situ landcover change monitoring has proven difficult across the vast archipelago, the NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with the Maldives Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, and Technology; USAID; and the U.S. Department of State, to utilize Earth observations to predict sea level rise impacts on coastal infrastructure. The team used a supervised classification algorithm within Google Earth Engine to create land use maps and time series analyses of nine islands and atolls using imagery from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, and PlanetScope, covering a combined period of 2000 through 2023. Additionally, the team projected coastal inundation with a modified deterministic Bathtub model utilizing elevation data from CoastalDEM and 2050-2100 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios identified in the NASA Sea Level Rise Projection Tool. The team found that islands undergoing urban growth experienced a 23% decrease in vegetation between 2014 and 2022. Furthermore, the model predicted that 51–57% of the study area’s-built environment has a chance of inundation by 2100 under the low and high sea level scenarios. These analyses demonstrate how remote sensing can be used to both track land use changes over time and project how coastlines will be affected by sea level rise.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2019

2018 NISAR Applications Workshop: Agriculture and Soil Moisture

Agricultural lands cover the globe and play an essential role in not only sustaining a growing global population, but can have significant implications on the Earth system through land use change (e.g., deforestation, grazing, etc.). As such, countries around the world have dedicated programs for managing these lands. Accurate and timely information concerning the status of agricultural crops (soil moisture, crop health, crop type, etc.) is essential to those nations’ anthropogenic and ecological health as well as economy. The joint NASA/US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) workshop focused on advancing agriculture and soil moisture applications by using remote sensing data from the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission (expected launch 2022). Participants included representatives from the international agriculture community that are key players in facilitating integration of Earth Observations into decision support workflows including US Federal Agencies, nonprofits, and private sector. They included scientists, technicians, and program managers with a responsibility for data acquisition and exploitation such as product development, delivery, and use, as well as capacity building. Discussions were held over two and a half days to convey the broader agriculture and soil moisture community information needs, the mission and procedures for various representative participants and programs involved in the delivery of geospatial products, and the capabilities and status of the NISAR mission. Case studies were presented to demonstrate the current state of practice in the use of SAR remote sensing for applications of direct importance for the agriculture and soil moisture communities. Eleven organizations presented their information requirements in response to a set of questions provided by the NASA team, then the NASA team responded by describing the degree to which NISAR could meet these requirements. Discussion ensued about needed data product specifications to increase utility (e.g., projection, latency, etc.), tools and capacity building.

Stavros, Natasha↗

NASA NTRS2020

Lower Omo Food Security & Agriculture: Mapping Land Cover Change in Unprotected and Protected Areas in the Lower Omo River Valley, Ethiopia

Ethiopia is home to unique wildlife, biodiversity, and ecosystem services and, like much of the world, is undergoing population growth, development, and land use change. As a result, some biodiverse regions may be at risk of being urbanized, cultivated as agricultural plots, or losing access to water bodies that are essential for maintaining both terrestrial and aquatic life. The DEVELOP team partnered with the Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Authority to quantify the land cover change between the years 1994, 2010, and 2018. The team utilized Ethiopia’s dry season (January to May) for training point development which was crucial in differentiating the level of greenness between the four land cover classes: water, natural vegetation, cultivated land, and bare ground. The study area covered 62,000 km2 of the Lower Omo River Valley and includes eight protected areas. Data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were used to employ a Random Forest classifier and identify the four classes within Google Earth Engine. For each of the supervised classifications, overall model accuracy was between 83% (2018) and 89% (1994). Between 1994 and 2018, the Lower Omo Valley experienced an overall increase of 258% (919 km2) in water and 291% (7,188 km2) in cultivated areas, while experiencing a 9% (2,761 km2) decrease in natural vegetation and 19% (5,346 km2) bare ground. There was an increase in water and cultivated land and a decrease in natural vegetation and bare ground in unprotected areas and all protected areas. However, protected areas maintained natural vegetation better than unprotected areas and only experienced a 1% (59 km2) loss compared to a 10% (2,701 km2) loss in unprotected areas.

Food Security & Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA LCLUC Program: An Integrated Forest Monitoring System for Central Africa

Central Africa has the second largest unfragmented block of tropical rain forest in the world; it is also one of the largest carbon and biodiversity reservoirs. With nearly one-third of the forest currently allocated for logging, the region is poised to undergo extensive land-use change. Through the mapping of the forests, our Integrated Forest Monitoring System for Central Africa (INFORMS) project aims to monitor habitat alteration, support biodiversity conservation, and promote better land-use planning and forest management. Designed as an interdisciplinary project, its goal is to integrate data acquired from satellites with field observations from forest inventories, wildlife surveys, and socio-economic studies to map and monitor forest resources. This project also emphasizes on collaboration and coordination with international, regional, national, and local partners-including non-profit, governmental, and commercial sectors. This project has been focused on developing remote sensing products for the needs of forest conservation and management, insuring that research findings are incorporated in forest management plans at the national level. The societal impact of INFORMS can be also appreciated through the development of a regional remote sensing network in central Africa. With a regional office in Kinshasa, (www.OSFAC.org), the contribution to the development of forest management plans for 1.5 million hectares of forests in northern Republic of Congo (www.tt-timber.com), and the monitoring of park encroachments in the Albertine region (Uganda and DRC) (www.albertinerift.org).

Laporte, Nadine↗

DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1977

Development of a multi-disciplinary ERTS user program in the state of Ohio

The author has identified the following significant results. Although the analysis of the results of presently - used methodology has showed inadequate correlation between the land use change and the various socio-economic factors, a system of analysis was produced that will aid in the future work in this area pointing out the adequacy of the land use data for producing models of desired accuracy. This testing methodology is applicable to other LANDSAT/land use interpretation systems.

Baldridge, P. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Complexities of urban impacts on long-term seasonal trends in a mid-sized arid city

The variability of surface air temperature is of great importance for both society and the environment, is impacted by global warming and local-scale changes. In the arid eastern part of Washington state of USA, substantial urbanization has transformed the Tri-cities into the state’s third-largest urban cluster. This study utilizes a combination of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets to investigate the influence of land use changes on the region’s 2-meter temperature, revealing local effects that compensate for the background global warming. Within the urban fabric, distinct microclimates have emerged due to varying land use, establishing unique relationships between greenness and temperature alterations caused by land use transitions. Notably, our findings demonstrate that the observed compensating signal in the temperature of farmland locations is primarily attributed to local vegetation increases. Through these observations, this research highlights the urban impacts on local climate, offering valuable insights into the complexities surrounding land use and its consequences on the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Cities Make Their Own Weather

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in d e near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. We will also present results from experiments using a regional atmospheric-land surface modeling system. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

NASA NTRS2009

Changes in the Extent of Surface Mining and Reclamation in the Central Appalachians Detected Using a 1976-2006 Landsat Time Series

Surface mining and reclamation is the dominant driver of land cover land use change (LCLUC) in the Central Appalachian Mountain region of the Eastern U.S. Accurate quantification of the extent of mining activities is important for assessing how this LCLUC affects ecosystem services such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and mitigation of flooding.We used Landsat imagery from 1976, 1987, 1999 and 2006 to map the extent of surface mines and mine reclamation for eight large watersheds in the Central Appalachian region of West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. We employed standard image processing techniques in conjunction with a temporal decision tree and GIS maps of mine permits and wetlands to map active and reclaimed mines and track changes through time. For the entire study area, active surface mine extent was highest in 1976, prior to implementation of the Surface Mine Control and Reclamation Act in 1977, with 1.76% of the study area in active mines, declining to 0.44% in 2006. The most extensively mined watershed, Georges Creek in Maryland, was 5.45% active mines in 1976, declining to 1.83% in 2006. For the entire study area, the area of reclaimed mines increased from 1.35% to 4.99% from 1976 to 2006, and from 4.71% to 15.42% in Georges Creek. Land cover conversion to mines and then reclaimed mines after 1976 was almost exclusively from forest. Accuracy levels for mined and reclaimed cover was above 85% for all time periods, and was generally above 80% for mapping active and reclaimed mines separately, especially for the later time periods in which good accuracy assessment data were available. Among other implications, the mapped patterns of LCLUC are likely to significantly affect watershed hydrology, as mined and reclaimed areas have lower infiltration capacity and thus more rapid runoff than unmined forest watersheds, leading to greater potential for extreme flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Townsend, Philip A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗

NASA NTRS1973

ERTS regional scale overview linking land use and environmental processes in CARETS

A mosaic of ERTS images of the CARETS region has been used to partition the region into zones on the basis of similarity of tones and textures visible at a regional-scale overview. The resulting patterns were compared with existing small scale maps of the region representing relief, land surface forms, geology, soils, vegetation, forest types, and land use. The ERTS-derived zones most closely resemble the patterns on the small scale land use map, suggesting that, at least in a highly developed region such as CARETS, land use is an indicator or resultant surface expression of several interacting environmental processes. These results lend support to the CARETS model of interdisciplinary regional analysis, whereby remote sensor-derived data sets on land use and land use change become the basic data entry into a regional information system to serve regional planners and land managers.

Alexander, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Global Impact of Biomass Burning: An Interview with EPA's Robert Huggett

The extent of biomass burning has increased significantly over the past 100 years because of human activities, and such burning is much more frequent and widespread than was previously believed. Biomass burning is now recognized as a significant global source of emissions, contributing as much as 40% of gross carbon dioxide and 38% of tropospheric ozone. Most of the world's burned biomass matter is from the savannas, and because two-thirds of the Earth's savannas are located in Africa, that continent is now recognized as the "burn center" of the planet. In the past few years the international scientific community has conducted field experiments using ground-based and airborne measurements in Africa, South America. and Siberia to better assess the global production of gases and particulates by biomass burning. Researchers are gathering this month in Williamsburg, VA, to discuss the results of these and other investigations at the Second Chapman Conference on Biomass Burning and Global Change, sponsored by the American Geophysical Union. The first international biomass burning conference, held in 1990, was attended by atmospheric chemists, climatologists, ecologists, forest and soil scientists, fire researchers, remote- sensins specialists, and environmental planners and managers from more than 25 countries.When we hear about biomass burning, we usually think of the burning of the worlds tropical forests for permanent land clearing. However, biomass burning serves a variety of land use changes, including the clearing of forests and savannas for agricultural and grazing use; shifting agriculture practices; the control of grass, weeds, and litter on agricultural and grazing lands; the elimination of stubble and waste on agricultural lands after the harvest; and the domestic use of biomass matter.

Sevine, Joel S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Landsat change detection can aid in water quality monitoring

Comparison between Landsat-1 and -2 imagery of Arkansas provided evidence of significant land use changes during the 1972-75 time period. Analysis of Arkansas historical water quality information has shown conclusively that whereas point source pollution generally can be detected by use of water quality data collected by state and federal agencies, sampling methodologies for nonpoint source contamination attributable to surface runoff are totally inadequate. The expensive undertaking of monitoring all nonpoint sources for numerous watersheds can be lessened by implementing Landsat change detection analyses.

Macdonald, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Planning applications of remote sensing in Arizona

Planners in Arizona have been experiencing the inevitable problems which occur when large areas of rural and remote lands are converted to urban-recreational uses over a relatively short period of time. Among the planning problems in the state are unplanned and illegal subdivisions, surburban sprawl, surface hydrologic problems related to ephemeral stream overflow, rapidly changing land use patterns, large size of administrative units, and lack of land use inventory data upon which to base planning decisions.

Clark, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A History of Vegetation, Sediment and Nutrient Dynamics at Tivoli North Bay, Hudson Estuary, New York

We conduct a stratigraphic paleoecological investigation at a Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve (HRNERR) site, Tivoli Bays, spanning the past 1100 years. Marsh sediment cores were analyzed for ecosystem changes using multiple proxies, including pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, sediment bulk chemistry, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. The results reveal climatic shifts such as the warm and dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) followed by the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA), along with significant anthropogenic influence on the watershed ecosystem. A five-fold expansion of invasive species, including Typha angustifolia and Phragmites australis, is documented along with marked changes in sediment composition and nutrient input. During the last century, a ten-fold sedimentation rate increase due to land-use changes is observed. The large magnitude of shifts in vegetation, sedimentation, and nutrients during the last few centuries suggest that human activities have made the greatest impact to the marshes of the Hudson Estuary during the last millennium. Climate variability and ecosystem changes similar to those observed at other marshes in northeastern and mid-Atlantic estuaries, attest to the widespread regional signature recorded at Tivoli Bays.

Sritrairat, Sanpisa↗

NASA NTRS1970

Geography program, design, structure and operational strategy

The geography program is designed to move systematically toward a capability to increase remote sensing data into operational systems for monitoring land use and related environmental change. The problems of environmental imbalance arising from rapid urbanization and other dramatic changes in land use are considered. These overall problems translate into working level problems of establishing the validity of various sensor-data combinations that will best obtain the regional land use and environmental information. The goal, to better understand, predict, and assist policy makers to regulate urban and regional land use changes resulting from population growth and technological advancement, is put forth.

Alexander, R. H.↗