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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
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NASA NTRS2023

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
NASA NTRS1987

Fallible humans and vulnerable systems - Lessons learned from aviation

It is suggested that the problems being experienced in complex automatic systems are essentially due to the failure of information management and communication. The failure covers the entire spectrum: display devices and techniques, coding information so as to reduce human error, and information economy, i.e., resisting the temptation to bombard the operator with unlimited information simply because the system possesses the capability to do so. Since there has been great progress in hardware engineering, it is suggested that further attention is needed in the 'soft' side of systems. The approach should focus on (1) preventing human cognitive slips and (2) making the systems less vulnerable to such slips when they do occur. Most of the examples are taken from studies of cockpit automation.

Wiener, Earl L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Stray Light Lessons Learned from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Optical Navigation Camera

The Optical Navigation Camera (ONC) is a technical demonstration slated to fly on NASA"s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2005. Conventional navigation methods have reduced accuracy in the days immediately preceding Mars orbit insertion. The resulting uncertainty in spacecraft location limits rover landing sites to relatively safe areas, away from interesting features that may harbor clues to past life on the planet. The ONC will provide accurate navigation on approach for future missions by measuring the locations of the satellites of Mars relative to background stars. Because Mars will be a bright extended object just outside the camera"s field of view, stray light control at small angles is essential. The ONC optomechanical design was analyzed by stray light experts and appropriate baffles were implemented. However, stray light testing revealed significantly higher levels of light than expected at the most critical angles. The primary error source proved to be the interface between ground glass surfaces (and the paint that had been applied to them) and the polished surfaces of the lenses. This paper will describe troubleshooting and correction of the problem, as well as other lessons learned that affected stray light performance.

stray lights↗
NASA NTRS2016

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lessons Learned During Cryogenic Optical Testing of the Advanced Mirror System Demonstrators (AMSDs)

Optical testing in a cryogenic environment presents a host of challenges above and beyond those encountered during room temperature testing. The Advanced Mirror System Demonstrators (AMSDs) are 1.4 m diameter, ultra light-weight (<20 kg/mA2), off-axis parabolic segments. They are required to have 250 nm PV & 50 nm RMS surface figure error or less at 35 K. An optical testing system, consisting of an Instantaneous Phase Interferometer (PI), a diffractive null corrector (DNC), and an Absolute Distance Meter (ADM), was used to measure the surface figure & radius-of-curvature of these mirrors at the operational temperature within the X-Ray Calibration Facility (XRCF) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The Ah4SD program was designed to improve the technology related to the design, fabrication, & testing of such mirrors in support of NASA s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). This paper will describe the lessons learned during preparation & cryogenic testing of the AMSDs.

Hadaway, James↗
NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Seasonal Cycle of Satellite Chlorophyll Fluorescence Observations and its Relationship to Vegetation Phenology and Ecosystem Atmosphere Carbon Exchange

Mapping of terrestrial chlorophyll uorescence from space has shown potentialfor providing global measurements related to gross primary productivity(GPP). In particular, space-based fluorescence may provide information onthe length of the carbon uptake period that can be of use for global carboncycle modeling. Here, we examine the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis asestimated from satellite fluorescence retrievals at wavelengths surroundingthe 740nm emission feature. These retrievals are from the Global OzoneMonitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) flying on the MetOp A satellite. Wecompare the fluorescence seasonal cycle with that of GPP as estimated froma diverse set of North American tower gas exchange measurements. Because the GOME-2 has a large ground footprint (40 x 80km2) as compared with that of the flux towers and requires averaging to reduce random errors, we additionally compare with seasonal cycles of upscaled GPP in the satellite averaging area surrounding the tower locations estimated from the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC) machine learning algorithm. We also examine the seasonality of absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation(APAR) derived with reflectances from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Finally, we examine seasonal cycles of GPP as produced from an ensemble of vegetation models. Several of the data-driven models rely on satellite reflectance-based vegetation parameters to derive estimates of APAR that are used to compute GPP. For forested sites(particularly deciduous broadleaf and mixed forests), the GOME-2 fluorescence captures the spring onset and autumn shutoff of photosynthesis as delineated by the tower-based GPP estimates. In contrast, the reflectance-based indicators and many of the models tend to overestimate the length of the photosynthetically-active period for these and other biomes as has been noted previously in the literature. Satellite fluorescence measurements therefore show potential for improving model GPP estimates.

Joiner, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Based Approaches for Fault Detection, Prognostics, Decision Making in Complex Systems

The presentation discusses application of model based approaches to complex systems. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗
NASA NTRS2021

Impact of Spectral Resolution on Quantifying Cyanobacteria in Lakes and Reservoirs: A Machine-Learning Assessment

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms are an increasing threat to coastal and inland waters. These blooms can be detected using optical radiometers due to the presence of phycocyanin (PC) pigments. The spectral resolution of best-available multispectral sensors limits their ability to diagnostically detect PC in the presence of other photosynthetic pigments. To assess the role of spectral resolution in the determination of PC, a large ( N=905 ) database of colocated in situ radiometric spectra and PC are employed. We first examine the performance of selected widely used machine-learning (ML) models against that of benchmark algorithms for hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance ( R_(rs) ) spectra resampled to the spectral configuration of the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) with a full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) of < 6 nm. Results show that the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network applied to HICO spectral configurations (median errors < 65%) outperforms other ML models. This model is subsequently applied to R_(rs) spectra resampled to the band configuration of existing satellite instruments and of the one proposed for the next Landsat sensor. These results confirm that employing MLP models to estimate PC from hyperspectral data delivers tangible improvements compared with retrievals from multispectral data and benchmark algorithms (with median errors between ∼73 % and 126%) and shows promise for developing a globally applicable cyanobacteria measurement approach.

hyperspectral↗
NASA NTRS1992

Adding dynamic rules to self-organizing fuzzy systems

This paper develops a Dynamic Self-Organizing Fuzzy System (DSOFS) capable of adding, removing, and/or adapting the fuzzy rules and the fuzzy reference sets. The DSOFS background consists of a self-organizing neural structure with neuron relocation features which will develop a map of the input-output behavior. The relocation algorithm extends the topological ordering concept. Fuzzy rules (neurons) are dynamically added or released while the neural structure learns the pattern. The DSOFS advantages are the automatic synthesis and the possibility of parallel implementation. A high adaptation speed and a reduced number of neurons is needed in order to keep errors under some limits. The computer simulation results are presented in a nonlinear systems modelling application.

Buhusi, Catalin V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Multimodality Instrument for Tissue Characterization

A system with multimodality instrument for tissue identification includes a computer-controlled motor driven heuristic probe with a multisensory tip is discussed. For neurosurgical applications, the instrument is mounted on a stereotactic frame for the probe to penetrate the brain in a precisely controlled fashion. The resistance of the brain tissue being penetrated is continually monitored by a miniaturized strain gauge attached to the probe tip. Other modality sensors may be mounted near the probe tip to provide real-time tissue characterizations and the ability to detect the proximity of blood vessels, thus eliminating errors normally associated with registration of pre-operative scans, tissue swelling, elastic tissue deformation, human judgement, etc., and rendering surgical procedures safer, more accurate, and efficient. A neural network, program adaptively learns the information on resistance and other characteristic features of normal brain tissue during the surgery and provides near real-time modeling. A fuzzy logic interface to the neural network program incorporates expert medical knowledge in the learning process. Identification of abnormal brain tissue is determined by the detection of change and comparison with previously learned models of abnormal brain tissues. The operation of the instrument is controlled through a user friendly graphical interface. Patient data is presented in a 3D stereographics display. Acoustic feedback of selected information may optionally be provided. Upon detection of the close proximity to blood vessels or abnormal brain tissue, the computer-controlled motor immediately stops probe penetration.

Mah, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multimodality instrument for tissue characterization

A system with multimodality instrument for tissue identification includes a computer-controlled motor driven heuristic probe with a multisensory tip. For neurosurgical applications, the instrument is mounted on a stereotactic frame for the probe to penetrate the brain in a precisely controlled fashion. The resistance of the brain tissue being penetrated is continually monitored by a miniaturized strain gauge attached to the probe tip. Other modality sensors may be mounted near the probe tip to provide real-time tissue characterizations and the ability to detect the proximity of blood vessels, thus eliminating errors normally associated with registration of pre-operative scans, tissue swelling, elastic tissue deformation, human judgement, etc., and rendering surgical procedures safer, more accurate, and efficient. A neural network program adaptively learns the information on resistance and other characteristic features of normal brain tissue during the surgery and provides near real-time modeling. A fuzzy logic interface to the neural network program incorporates expert medical knowledge in the learning process. Identification of abnormal brain tissue is determined by the detection of change and comparison with previously learned models of abnormal brain tissues. The operation of the instrument is controlled through a user friendly graphical interface. Patient data is presented in a 3D stereographics display. Acoustic feedback of selected information may optionally be provided. Upon detection of the close proximity to blood vessels or abnormal brain tissue, the computer-controlled motor immediately stops probe penetration. The use of this system will make surgical procedures safer, more accurate, and more efficient. Other applications of this system include the detection, prognosis and treatment of breast cancer, prostate cancer, spinal diseases, and use in general exploratory surgery.

Mah, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Recent Mascon Solutions from GRACE

Mascon (mass concentration) solutions computed for entire land area of Earth with several variants from Jul. 2003 through Dec. 2005 Automated scripts developed, "pipeline" now in place. Solutions generally consistent with harmonics for large features but appear able to resolve and localize smaller features more cleanly. Greenland solutions generally consistent with areas of max ice mass loss in South, but mascons seem to clearly identify sub-regions of ice mass growth. May be amplified by mascon sensitivity and ground tracks. Irregular coverage, errors due to tides in Arctic or other leakage from nearby sources? Although mascons are technically 30+ years old, gravity/geodesy community has vastly more experience with harmonics and thus we are still learning the full advantages, limitations, and idiosyncrasies of mascons.

GRACE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Learning Model Structural Uncertainty with Gaussian Processes

The advent of commercially available quantum computers has marked the beginning of quantum computing as a reality. Both quantum gate and annealing computers have been released by major computer hardware companies. In this work, the D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealing computer housed at the NASA Advanced Systems computational facility is investigated to accelerate Machine Learning (ML) for image registration. NASA collects large amounts of images over the globe remotely using space-based monitoring. Images of a fixed areas of the land surface are taken over time. Due to the orbit of the sensors, the viewing angles deviate slightly, and it is necessary to align or register the images precisely to create image time series over the land surface. Unaligned images can lead to substantial analysis errors. These time-series are then used in modeling Earth Systems models such as hydrological, weather, and carbon monitoring models. In this work, we consider the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS) data collected by the NASA's terra satellite. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a natural fit for ML modelling of images. Several successes have been reported using machine learning related to image processing. We investigate the use of ML to register MODIS images. ANNs are investigated in combination with a Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) as an auto-encoder. We will present results showing the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.The D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealer samples the ground-state wave-function of a spin-Ising systems with quadratic interactions between qubits and a Chimera connectivity. The system sits in a ~15 mK thermal bath. One can think of the system as being placed in the ground state initially and subject to thermal excitations governed by Boltzmann statistics. If this is assumed true, one can use the statistics from the D-Wave 2XTM to train RBMs. Generating statistics for training Boltzmann machines is an NP-hard problem and constitutes the largest compute cost. We investigate the use of the D-Wave 2XTM to accelerate the training of the RBMs in our ANNs and report on the results.

Kouatchou, Jules↗
NASA NTRS2018

Southern California Megacity CO2, CH4, and CO Flux Estimates Using Ground- and Space-Based Remote Sensing and a Lagrangian Model

We estimate the overall CO2, CH4, and CO flux from the South Coast Air Basin using an inversion that couples Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations, with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). Using TCCON data we estimate the direct net CO2 flux from the So-CAB to be 104±26 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) for the study period of July 2013–August 2016. We obtain a slightly higher estimate of 120±30 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) using OCO-2 data. These CO2 emission estimates are on the low end of previous work. Our net CH4 (360±90 Gg CH4 y(exp -1)) flux estimate is in agreement with central values from previous top-down studies going back to 2010 (342–440 Gg CH4 yr(exp -1)). CO emissions are estimated at 487±122 Gg CO yr(exp -1), much lower than previous top-down estimates (1440 Gg CO yr(exp -1)). Given the decreasing emissions of CO, this finding is not unexpected. We perform sensitivity tests to estimate how much errors in the prior, errors in the covariance, different inversion schemes, or a coarser dynamical model influence the emission estimates. Overall, the uncertainty is estimated to be 25%, with the largest contribution from the dynamical model. Lessons learned here may help in future inversions of satellite data over urban areas.

Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON)↗
NASA NTRS1990

Input/output system identification - Learning from repeated experiments

The paper describes three approaches and possible variations for the determination of the Markov parameters for forced response data using general inputs. It is shown that, when the parameters in the solution procedure are bootstrapped, the results can be obtained very efficiently, but the errors propagate throughout all parameters. By arranging the data in a different form and using singular value decomposition, the resulting identified parameters are more accurate, in the least number of successive experiments, at the expense of a large matrix singular value decomposition. When a recursive procedure is employed, the calculations can be performed very efficiently, but the number of repetitions of the experiments is much greater for a given accuracy than for any of the previous approaches. An alternative formulation is proposed to combine the advantages of each of the approaches.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗