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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the formation of a low-pressure pedestal in the presence of a strong internal transport barrier in DIII-D high β p plasmas

As a promising scenario for fusion reactors, the high poloidal-beta (β P ) scenario is characterized by a strong large radius internal transport barrier (ITB), which significantly enhances the overall confinement quality and the bootstrap current fraction for fully non-inductive operation. It is frequently observed that in the presence of a strong ITB, the pedestal height is lower and is accompanied by small edge localized modes (ELMs), which further improves the compatibility of a high performance core with an edge solution. A mechanism for the formation of the low pedestal is proposed in this paper. It is found that the strong ITB creates an off-axis bootstrap current to clamp the local safety factor q, and thus the magnetic shear in the outer core/pedestal region is increased. Gyrokinetic simulations with the CGYRO code show that the higher magnetic shear brings the experimental profiles into the range where the growth rate of drift-wave instabilities and thus transport is higher, and therefore a lower pedestal gradient is expected. Here, the combination of low pedestal and high magnetic shear further enhances the turbulent transport across the whole pedestal, consistent with power balance analysis. Such a positive feedback mechanism ultimately results in a lower pressure pedestal as observed in experiments. Under such a low pedestal, linear simulations with BOUT++ predict the growth rates of peeling–ballooning modes to be lower across the whole toroidal mode number spectra, and the nonlinear BOUT++ simulation exhibits lower saturated fluctuation intensity as well, consistent with the experimentally observed lower ELM size.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous enhancement of tritium burn efficiency and fusion power with low-tritium spin-polarized fuel

This study demonstrates that using spin-polarized deuterium-tritium (D-T) fuel with more deuterium than tritium can increase tritium burn efficiency (TBE) by at least an order of magnitude without compromising fusion power output, compared to unpolarized fuel. Although previous studies show that a low tritium fraction can enhance TBE, this strategy resulted in reduced fusion power density. The surprising improvement in TBE at fixed power reported here is due to the TBE increasing nonlinearly with decreasing tritium fraction but the fusion power density increasing roughly linearly with D-T cross section. A study is performed for an ARC-like tokamak producing 481 MW of fusion power with unpolarized 53:47 D-T fuel, finding the minimum startup tritium inventory (I startup,min ) is 0.69 kg. By spin-polarizing half of the fuel and using a 60:40 D-T mix, I startup,min is reduced to 0.08 kg, and fully spin-polarizing the fuel with a 63:37 D-T mix further reduces I startup,min to 0.03 kg. Some ARC-like scenarios are predicted to achieve plasma ignition with relatively modest spin polarization. These findings indicate that, with advancements in helium divertor pumping efficiency, TBE values of approximately 10%–40% could be achieved using low-tritium-fraction and spin-polarized fuel with minimal power loss. This would dramatically lower tritium startup inventory requirements and reduce the amount of on-site tritium. More generally than just for spin-polarized fuels, increased plasma performance can be used to increase TBE. This strongly motivates the development of spin-polarized fuels and low-tritium-fraction operation for burning plasmas.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An efficient explicit implementation of a near-optimal quantum algorithm for simulating linear dissipative differential equations

We propose an efficient block-encoding technique for the implementation of the Linear Combination of Hamiltonian Simulations (LCHS) for simulating dissipative initial-value problems. This algorithm approximates a target nonunitary operator as a weighted sum of Hamiltonian evolutions, thereby emulating a dissipative problem by mixing various time scales. We introduce an efficient encoding of the LCHS into a quantum circuit based on a simple coordinate transformation that turns the dependence on the summation index into a trigonometric function. Classically, this method is equivalent to the use of a highly accurate Fejér-Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature formula. Quantumly, this significantly simplifies block-encoding of a dissipative problem and allows one to perform an exponential number of Hamiltonian simulations by a single Quantum Signal Processing (QSP) circuit. The resulting LCHS circuit has high success probability and the selector scales logarithmically with the number of terms in the LCHS sum and linearly with time. Careful analysis of error convergence proves that this method is more efficient than other LCHS circuits that have recently appeared in the literature. We verify the quantum circuit and its scaling by simulating it on a digital emulator of fault-tolerant quantum computers and, as a test problem, solve the advection-diffusion equation. The proposed algorithm can be used for simulating a wide class of nonunitary initial-value problems including the Liouville equation with added dissipation and linear embeddings of nonlinear systems, such as the Koopman-von Neumann and Carleman embeddings.

Novikau, I [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Control Co-Design Modeling Tool for Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines: Preprint

This report describes the ongoing and planned development of the software package CT-Opt (Current/Tidal Optimization), a control co-design modeling tool for marine hydrokinetic turbines. The commercialization of these turbines has faced significant challenges due to the complex, multidisciplinary nature of their design and the extreme environmental conditions of their operation. This project aims to create a modeling tool that will enable the efficient design of robust, cost-competitive hydrokinetic turbine systems. Rather than using traditional optimization methods, CT-Opt combines multiple models across a range of fidelities to enable coupled optimization of the system design and system controller via a control co-design approach. With this method, the parameters that affect system performance are considered more comprehensively at every stage of the design process. The lowest-fidelity, frequency-domain model called by CT-Opt is RAFT (Response Amplitudes of Floating Turbines), which was originally developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to model response amplitudes of floating offshore wind turbines. The highest-fidelity, time-domain model is OpenFAST, which was developed by NREL for land-based and offshore wind turbines. As part of the CT-Opt project, new functionalities will be added to RAFT and OpenFAST to enable the accurate simulation of fixed and floating marine hydrokinetic turbines. In addition to expanding the capabilities of RAFT and OpenFAST, new midfidelity models will be developed. These models will be based on RAFT and OpenFAST and will consist of linearized, state-space models derived from the fully coupled, nonlinear OpenFAST equations and derivative function surrogate models that approximate the nonlinear system behavior. Each model will be coupled with controllers to allow control co-design methods to be applied both within models and across fidelity levels, enabling efficient system optimization.

control co-design↗
DOE OSTI2021

A domain wall-magnetic tunnel junction artificial synapse with notched geometry for accurate and efficient training of deep neural networks

Inspired by the parallelism and efficiency of the brain, several candidates for artificial synapse devices have been developed for neuromorphic computing, yet a nonlinear and asymmetric synaptic response curve precludes their use for backpropagation, the foundation of modern supervised learning. Spintronic devices—which benefit from high endurance, low power consumption, low latency, and CMOS compatibility—are a promising technology for memory, and domain-wall magnetic tunnel junction (DW-MTJ) devices have been shown to implement synaptic functions such as long-term potentiation and spike-timing dependent plasticity. In this work, we propose a notched DW-MTJ synapse as a candidate for supervised learning. Using micromagnetic simulations at room temperature, we show that notched synapses ensure the non-volatility of the synaptic weight and allow for highly linear, symmetric, and reproducible weight updates using either spin transfer torque (STT) or spin–orbit torque (SOT) mechanisms of DW propagation. We use lookup tables constructed from micromagnetics simulations to model the training of neural networks built with DW-MTJ synapses on both the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST image classification tasks. Accounting for thermal noise and realistic process variations, the DW-MTJ devices achieve classification accuracy close to ideal floating-point updates using both STT and SOT devices at room temperature and at 400 K. Our work establishes the basis for a magnetic artificial synapse that can eventually lead to hardware neural networks with fully spintronic matrix operations implementing machine learning.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A simulation study of the ability to detect power distribution perturbations in the texas A&M TRIGA reactor with self-powered neutron detectors

Given the variety of ways that nuclear reactor core power may be perturbed, reactor operators and developers are keen on understanding the accuracy and convergence time during which perturbations in reactor power distribution may be synthesized (i.e., inferred) from an array of in-core radiation detectors. A simulation study was conducted as described herein using a highly detailed model of the Texas A&M Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor, in which an array of self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs) was considered for input to the power synthesis methodology. The core power synthesis is conducted using a point-based iterative method with an iterative loop built in to ensure working equation consistency. The forward problem of SPND response to simulated perturbations in reactor power was solved for Gaussian peak-type perturbations in the reactor power distribution. These perturbations varied in variance, amplitude, and core location to assess their impact on synthesis error and to determine the number of iterations required for convergence. A relation between the unique resolvability limit and perturbation width was identified such that the maximum synthesis error increased rapidly when the peak width went beneath this limit (a width approximating half the reactor’s fuel pin-to-pin pitch); this resolvability limit is specific to the SPND configuration and fuel segmentation considered herein. The synthesis error increased linearly with perturbation peak amplitude, whereas the convergence time increased nonlinearly. Perturbations located closer to the center of the core were synthesized more accurately, albeit with a higher number of required iterations. These findings provide a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the accuracy and speed at which different types of spatial power perturbations can be resolved in light-water reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins

Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.

Data-driven model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Isotope effects on energy transport in the core of ASDEX-Upgrade tokamak plasmas: Turbulence measurements and model validation

Design and operation of future tokamak fusion reactors using a deuterium–tritium 50:50 mix requires a solid understanding of how energy confinement properties change with ion mass. This study looks at how turbulence and energy transport change in L-mode plasmas in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak when changing ion species between hydrogen and deuterium. For this purpose, both experimental turbulence measurements and modeling are employed. Local measurements of ion-scale (with wavevector of fluctuations perpendicular to the B-field k⊥< 2 cm−1, k⊥ρs< 0.2, where ρs is the ion sound Larmor radius using the deuterium ion mass) electron temperature fluctuations have been performed in the outer core (normalized toroidal flux ρTor=0.65−0.8) using a multi-channel correlation electron cyclotron emission diagnostic. Lower root mean square perpendicular fluctuation amplitudes and radial correlation lengths have been measured in hydrogen vs deuterium. Measurements of the cross-phase angle between a normal-incidence reflectometer and an ECE signal were made to infer the cross-phase angle between density and temperature fluctuations. The magnitude of the cross-phase angle was found larger (more out-of-phase) in hydrogen than in deuterium. TRANSP power balance simulations show a larger ion heat flux in hydrogen where the electron-ion heat exchange term is found to play an important role. These experimental observations were used as the basis of a validation study of both quasilinear gyrofluid trapped gyro-Landau fluid-SAT2 and nonlinear gyrokinetic GENE codes. Linear solvers indicate that, at long wavelengths (k⊥ρs<1), energy transport in the deuterium discharge is dominated by a mixed ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) and trapped-electron mode turbulence while in hydrogen transport is exclusively and more strongly driven by ITG turbulence. The Ricci validation metric has been used to quantify the agreement between experiments and simulations taking into account both experimental and simulation uncertainties as well as four different observables across different levels of the primacy hierarchy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Relaxations of the steady optimal gas flow problem for a non-Ideal gas

Natural gas ranks second in U.S. primary energy consumption. Because most production sites are remote, gas must be transported through pipeline networks equipped with compressors, valves, and other components. For both economic efficiency and system reliability, it is desirable to operate these networks optimally. The governing physics across pipeline components entails nonlinear, non-convex equality and inequality constraints, and the most general steady-flow operations problem is a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP).This work focuses on one such steady-flow problem-the Optimal Gas Flow (OGF) for a natural gas pipeline network-which minimizes production cost subject to the steady-flow physics. For day-to-day operations, the ability to quickly compute a globally optimal solution and a strong lower bound for varying demand profiles is crucial. A promising strategy is to build tight relaxations of the OGF’s nonlinear constraints. However, many nonlinearities arising from non-ideal equations of state either lack relaxations or have relaxations that do not scale to realistic network sizes. We address this gap by combining recent advances in polyhedral relaxations for univariate functions to construct tight, computationally efficient relaxations of the OGF with a non-ideal equation of state. These relaxations solve within seconds on a standard laptop. In conclusion, we demonstrate their quality through extensive numerical experiments on very large-scale test networks from the literature and find that the proposed approach proves optimality in 92% of tested instances.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

kynema-fmb [SWR-23-07]

Kynema-FMB (FKA: Kynema) is an open-source performance portable flexible multibody (FMB) dynamics solver designed for time-domain simulations. While originally tailored for wind turbine structural dynamics, the formulation and implementation are those of a general flexible-multidbody dynamics solver that can readily be applied to a wide range of systems. Kynema was designed with a narrow focus, namely to provide a lightweight, fast, accurate FMD solver for coupling to computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) codes, especially the CFD codes in the Kynema suite, for fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) simulations. Kynema-FMB is equipped to model systems that can be represented as a collection of beams and rigid bodies that are connected through constraints. Degrees of freedom are defined in the inertial/global frame of reference and include displacements and rotations (formally as rotation matrices, but stored as quaternions). The underlying formulation is built on a Lie-group time integrator designed for index-3 differential-algebraic equations, which is second-order accurate in time (Bruls et al., 2012). Beam models are based on geometrically exact beam theory and are discretized as high-order spectral finite elements similar to those in BeamDyn (Wang et al., 2017). The governing equations for a FMD system like a wind turbine constitute a highly nonlinear system of constrained partial-differential equations. Kynema-FMB uses analytical Jacobians in the nonlinear-system solves in each time step. Linear systems use sparse storage and several third-party sparse-linear-system solvers are enabled. Ill conditioning of linear systems is mitigated with preconditioning described in Bottasso et al, 2008. Kynema-FMB is integrated with a simple open-source controller (ROSCO). There is an application programming interface (API) for coupling to geometry-resolved CFD (like that in Sharma et al., 2023) and actuator-force CFD (like that in Kuhn et al., 2025). In the latter, for actuator-line models, Kynema-FMB includes an internal blade-element solver that depends on user-provided lookup tables for coefficients of lift and drag, i.e., aerodynamic polars. Kynema-FMB is written in C++ and leverages Kokkos and Kokkos-Kernels (KokkosEcosystem) as its performance portability layer enabling simulations on both CPU and GPU systems. The repository is equipped with extensive automated testing at the unit and regression/system levels. The following describes the high-level development objectives conceived for Kynema: *Kynema will follow modern software development best practices, including test-driven development (TDD), version control, hierarchical automated testing, and continuous integration (CI) for a robust development environment. *The core data structures are memory efficient and enable vectorization and parallelization at multiple levels. *Data structures are data-oriented to exploit methods for accelerated computing including high utilization of chip resources (e.g., single instruction multiple data (SIMD) instruction sets) and parallelization using GP-GPUs. *The computational algorithms incorporate robust open-source libraries for mathematical operations, resource allocation, and data management. *The API design considers multiple stakeholder needs and ensure integration with existing and future ecosystems for data science, machine learning, and AI. *Kynema-FMB is written in modern C++ and leverages Kokkos as its performance-portability library with inspiration from the kynema stack.

Sprague, MichaelA.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Critical Transitions in Multiscale Data

Predicting the dynamics of complex nonlinear systems remains a challenging problem both in dynamical systems theory as well as real world science and engineering applications. Data-driven methods utilizing the latest advances in machine learning (ML) provide a promising new paradigm for this task. Our work centered on Reservoir Computing (RC), which has shown itself to be capable of skillfully predicting chaotic dynamics in multiscale systems. In the first part of the work, the focus is on how to improve predictions of critical transitions in a class of slow-fast metastable systems in which the equations are known. An additional goal was to determine whether a relationship exists between RC and Koopman operator theory, to improve the efficiency and broaden the applicability of the approach. In the second part of this work, a variation on the RC model known as Reconstructive Reservoir Computing (RRC) is applied to real-world data to identify anomalies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical analysis of the saturation phase of the 1/1 energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange mode

The aim of the present study is to analyze the saturation regime of the energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange mode (EIC) in the LHD plasma. In this work, a set of nonlinear simulations are performed by the FAR3d code that uses a reduced MHD model for the thermal plasma coupled with a gyrofluid model for the energetic particle (EP) species. The hellically trapped EP component is introduced through a modification of the averaged drift velocity operator to include their precessional drift. The nonlinear simulation results show similar 1/1 EIC saturation phases with respect to the experimental observations, reproducing the enhancement of the n/m = 1/1 resistive interchange modes (RIC) amplitude and width as the EP β increases, the EP β threshold for the 1/1 EIC excitation, the further destabilization of the 1/1 EIC as the population of the helically trapped EP increases and the triggering of burst events. The frequency of the 1/1 EIC calculated during the burst event is 9.4 kHz and the 2/2 and 3/3 overtones are destabilized, consistent with the frequency range and the complex mode structure measured in the experiment. In addition, the simulation shows the inward propagation of the 1/1 EIC due to the nonlinear destabilization of the 3/4 and 2/3 energetic particle modes, leading to the partial overlapping between resonances during the burst event. Finally, the analysis of the 1/1 EIC stabilization phase shows the excitation of the 1/1 RIC as soon as the flattening induced by the 1/1 EIC in the pressure profile vanishes, leading to the retrieval of the pressure gradient at the plasma periphery and the overcoming of the RIC stability limit.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electro-Optic Modulation Using Metal-Free Perovskites

Electro-optic (EO) modulation is of interest to impart information onto an optical carrier. Inorganic crystals—most notably LiNbO 3 and BaTiO 3 —exhibit EO modulation and good stability, but are difficult to integrate with silicon photonic technology. Solution-processed organic EO materials are readily integrated but suffer from thermal degradation at the temperatures required in operating conditions for accelerated reliability studies. Hybrid organic–inorganic metal halide perovskites have the potential to overcome these limitations; however, these have so far relied on heavy metals such as lead and cadmium. Here, we report linear EO modulation using metal-free perovskites, which maintain the crystalline features of the inorganic EO materials and incorporate the flexible functionality of organic EO chromophores. We find that, by introducing a deficiency of cations, we reduce the symmetry in the perovskite crystal and produce thereby an increased EO response. The best-engineered perovskites reported herein showcase an EO coefficient of 14 pm V –1 at a modulation frequency of 80 kHz, an order of magnitude higher than in the nondefective materials. Furthermore, we observe split peaks in the X-ray diffraction and neutron diffraction patterns of the defective sample, indicating that the crystalline structure has been distorted and the symmetry reduced. Density functional theory (DFT) studies link this decreased symmetry to NH 4 + deficiencies. This demonstration of EO from metal-free perovskites highlights their potential in next-generation optical information transmission.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of coupled weakly driven waves in a dissipative plasma

The nonlinear collisional dynamics of coupled driven plasma waves in the presence of background dissipation is studied analytically within kinetic theory. Sufficiently near marginal stability, phase space correlations are poorly preserved and time delays become unimportant. The system is then shown to be governed by two first-order coupled autonomous differential equations of cubic order for the wave amplitudes and two complementary first-order equations for the evolution of their phases. That system of equations can be decoupled and further simplified to a single second-order differential equation of Liénard's type for each amplitude. Numerical solutions for this equation are obtained in the general case, while analytic solutions are obtained for special cases in terms of parameters related to the spacing of the resonances of the two waves in frequency space, e.g., wave lengths and oscillation frequencies. These parameters are further analyzed to find classes of quasi-steady saturation and pulsating scenarios. To classify equilibrium points, local stability analysis is applied, and bifurcation conditions are determined. When the two waves saturate at similar amplitude levels, their combined signal is shown to invariably exhibit amplitude beating and phase jumps of nearly π. In conclusion, the obtained analytical results can be used to benchmark simulations and to interpret eigenmode amplitude measurements in fusion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗