SEARCH · Search NASA
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
The University of Texas (UT), Genesis of Methane Hydrate in Coarse-Grained Systems: Northern Gulf of Mexico Slope Project (GOM2), will perform the UT-GOM2-2 drilling and coring expedition in the Terrebonne Basin, Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf. This is the scientific plan for the acquisition, storage, analysis, and distribution of core and other collected samples for UT-GOM2-2.
This report is a draft white paper on the factors determining commercially optimal development strategies for CO 2 storage with and without CO 2 -EOR. The draft report provides a summary of accomplishments during the first budget period of the Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment for the Gulf of Mexico (SECARB Offshore GOM) project. It also identifies “Next Steps” to be undertaken during Budget Period II. A final white paper will be prepared at the end of Budget Period II. The goal of this draft white paper is to expand the knowledge base required for commercially viable, secure, longterm, large-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) subsea storage in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM), both with and without enhanced hydrocarbon recovery. This effort supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) long-term objective of ensuring a comprehensive assessment of the potential for offshore CO 2 subsea storage in the GOM. The groundwork that has been completed in the draft white paper advanced by expanding the membership of the Southern States Energy Board’s (SSEB) existing Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment (DE-FE0026082) GOM government-industry partnership during the next budget period. Further, the team plans to consult with U.S. federal and state agencies to develop recommendations to remove barriers and streamline the regulatory process to encourage subsea CO 2 storage with or without enhanced hydrocarbon recovery.
This is the Phase 3 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from January 16, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We determined that it would not be possible to pursue the project with the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and then developed a revised science and operations plan to maximize the science using a commercial vessel within the budget that is available. We improved the scientific capability of the UT pressure core center by adding the ability to X-ray pressure cores, and the ability to cut and store multiple core samples for experimental analysis. We transferred pressure cores to peer institutions, including the National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) the United States Geological Survey (USGS Woods Hole). We made advances in understanding the composition and source of gasses locked in the methane hydrate from Green Canyon 955 (GC-955). We developed approaches to determine the in-situ salinity of hydrate-bearing samples, revealing that the in situ salinity of the GC 955 reservoir is just above that of seawater. We determined that the GC-955 hydrate reservoir is composed of sandy silt with a high concentration of hydrate interbedded with clayey silt with no hydrate present. We determined that some or all of the intervals bounding the hydrate reservoir are composed of material similar to the reservoir (sandy silt with hydrate and clayey silt with no hydrate), but with a lower net to gross. We determined that the reservoir effective permeability at a hydrate saturation of ~80-90 % is ~0.1 mD (or 1.0×10-16 m2) to ~0.5 mD (or 5.0×10-16 m2) and the intrinsic permeability is ~12 mD (or 1.2×10-14 m2). The GC-955 reservoir in-situ porosity of sandy silt is 0.38 to 0.40 and is largely independent of effective stress, and that the porosity of clayey silt is 0.33 at an in situ effective stress of 3.8 MPa to ~0.37 at zero effective stress. We developed a systematic, repeatable approach to studying hydrate reservoir properties by reconstituting individual lithofacies from dissociated pressure cores. We determined index properties of GC-955 reservoir, including liquid limit and plasticity, porosity, capillary behavior, and particle size distribution. We developed a more robust pressure coring technology. We finalized and published the UT-GOM2-1 Expedition Volume and we finalized a dedicated volume on the UT-GOM2-1 expedition that will be published in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin (AAPG) in spring 2020.
This is the Phase 4 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The project objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We published a dedicated American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin volume describing initial results from the UT-GOM2-1 expedition in Sept. 2020. This is part 1 of a multi-volume commitment by AAPG to this project. We further confirmed that the natural gas in hydrate at GC-955 was formed by primary microbial processes (>76.1 %). The in-situ effective permeability hydrate-bearing sandy silts at the GC-955 reservoir ranges from 0.1 md (1.0×10-16 m2) to 2.4 md (2.4×10-15m2) in cores with 83% to 93% hydrate saturation. The intrinsic permeability (the single phase permeability) is estimated from reconstituted samples to be ~12 md (1.2×10-14 m2) to ~41 md (4.1×10-14 m2). We used observation and models to interpret that the core degradation that is found in pressure cores is due to dissociation of the methane hydrate in the outer circumference of the core and dissolution of that methane into the fresh pore water that the core is stored with. We are designing approaches to minimize this core loss in the future. We spent an enormous amount of effort to further improve the ability of the pressure coring tool (the PCTB) to pressure seal correctly. We completed upgrading the upper section of the PCTB to address poor pressure. We successful tested the modifications at Geotek’s test facility in Salt Lake City (Bench Test II). We completed a Land Test of the PCTB at the Schlumberger Cameron Test and Training Facility (CTTF). The tool did not seal in 6 out of 7 tests and we clearly demonstrated that cuttings were wedging in the ball valve assembly, keeping the ball valve from sealing. We reproduced the failure mechanism observed during the land test at Salt Lake City and confirmed the sensitivity of the ball valve assembly to grit. Geotek designed and tested 9 modifications to address this issue and the PCTB is now 100% successfully sealing in the presence of grit. Our science expedition is scheduled for spring 2022 and we are fully focused on preparing for this. UT and Ohio State completed a Shallow Hazard Assessment report for each proposed UT-GOM2-2 drilling location, pursuant to 30 CFR 250.214(f) and 250.244 (f). The Shallow Hazard Reports will accompany the UT-GOM2-2 Exploration Plan that is submitted to BOEM, and completes the geological and geophysical analysis for UT-GOM2-2 permitting efforts. We updated the UT-GOM2-2 Operations Plan (Version 1). We completed the UT-GOM2-2 Science and Sample Distribution Plan (Version 1). We evaluated the scope, budget, and schedule that would result from using a commercial vessel. We developed detailed drilling schedule, mud volume, and resource estimates. We developed a vessel specification document and a well plan, and sent these documents to prospective vessel contractors.
The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.
Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.
Current designs and assessments of microgrids have ignored component reliability, leading to significant errors in predicting a microgrid’s performance while islanded. Existing life cycle cost studies on hybrid microgrids—which combine photovoltaics (PV), battery storage and networked emergency diesel generators—also have not identified all the potential economic opportunities. Reducing the number of emergency diesel generators through reliance on PV and battery, retail bill savings, and demand response and wholesale market revenue streams are all important. This paper provides a new statistical methodology that calculates the impact of distributed energy reliability and variability on a microgrid’s performance and a novel use of the optimization platform REopt to explore multiple cost savings and revenue streams. We examine the impacts for microgrids in California, Maryland, and New Mexico and show that a hybrid microgrid is a more resilient and cost-effective solution than a diesel-only system. Under realistic conditions, a hybrid microgrid can provide higher system reliability when islanded and have a lower life cycle cost under multiple market conditions than a traditional diesel generator-based system. The improved performance of the hybrid system is resilient to conditions experienced over the last 20 years in solar irradiance and sees little degradation in performance immediately after a hurricane. The cost savings to provide this more resilient backup power system as compared to a diesel-only microgrid are significant. The net present cost for a hybrid microgrid is 19% lower in New Mexico and 35% lower in Maryland than a diesel-only microgrid. In California, the net present cost of the hybrid microgrid is negative because, unlike a diesel-only microgrid, a hybrid microgrid has lower life cycle costs than the power costs without a microgrid.
Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.
In 2018, U.S. Congress passed the Bipartisan Budget Act, known as 45Q [H.R. 3761], expanding the corporate income tax credit for carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). 45Q provides a performance-based tax credit for carbon capture projects of $30/ton of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (tCO 2 ) for anthropogenic CO 2 going to enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and $50/tCO 2 if going to straight storage. There are several conditions; for example, there is a 12-year time limit on tax credits for a new plant that commences construction before 2024 [H.R. 3761]. Here, this study aims to test the incremental impact of the 45Q tax credits on CCUS deployment, CO 2 -EOR, and power generation technological changes for North American (the United States, Canada, and Mexico) long-term energy system development. The scenario results show that offering a 12-year CO 2 storage subsidy provides the motivation needed for CCUS investment during the 12-year subsidy period, and the benefits of such investment can be sustained over the 40-year lifetime under CO 2 taxation. The modeling results show that carbon capture generation replaces uncontrolled fossil-fueled power, not new or existing renewables, so power generation and corresponding emission reductions from renewables remain unaffected by the availability of 45Q in the United States. Our scenario with CCUS technological learning indicates that CCUS could play a very important role under stringent environmental constraints. Thus, accelerated support and funding for the large-scale CCUS demonstrations is important for the execution of both short- and long-term climate mitigation goals. Given the significant role of the United States, Canada, and Mexico on the world energy system, our results represent an important contribution to the study of global energy trends.
Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.
Solar irradiance, especially for direct normal irradiance (DNI), is sensitive to the atmospheric aerosols, which can strongly extinguish DNI over areas with elevated aerosol loadings. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), uses AOD from MERRA-2 reanalysis and is further downscaled from 0.5° to 2-km based on elevation. However, the elevation-based downscaling may not accurately represent AOD, especially over the areas with large AOD gradients. This study examined whether the 1-km MODIS MAIAC satellite-retrieved AOD product can better represent the AOD distribution and be used to improve solar irradiance assessment. We focused on areas with relatively high AOD over North America (California, and New York City, US, and Mexico City in Mexico, in particular). The evaluation of MAIAC AOD and MERRA-2 AOD against ground-truth AERONET AOD shows that MAIAC AOD exhibits smaller RMSE by about 0.05 and higher correlation coefficient by 0.1-0.6 than MERRA-2 AOD. In addition, MERRA-2 AOD shows larger negative bias. The simulated DNI using MAIAC AOD (DNIMAIAC) and using MERRA-2 AOD (DNINSRDB) were evaluated with DNI observations. The results show the performance of DNIMAIAC is better than that of DNINSRDB with smaller RMSE by 0.5-1.5%, smaller positive mean bias by 0.8-3.1% and comparable correlation for the 3 sites analyzed. Overall, 1-km MAIAC AOD shows higher accuracy than 2-km elevation-based MERRA-2 AOD, leading to better performance of the simulated DNI using MAIAC AOD. Therefore, 1-km MAIAC AOD can be used to improve the accuracy of solar resource assessment.
Abstract By harnessing both hypothetical, synthetic basin and gas hydrate (GH) system models and real‐world models of well‐studied salt diapir‐associated GH sites at Green Canyon (Gulf of Mexico) and Blake Ridge (U.S. Atlantic coast), we propose and demonstrate salt movement (and in particular, diapirism) to be a new mechanism for the recycling of marine GH. At Green Canyon, for example, we show that by considering this newly proposed diapir‐driven recycling mechanism in conjunction with previously proposed lithological control on sandy‐reservoir‐hosted hydrate at the base of the GH stability zone (BGHSZ; ∼bottom‐simulating reflector, BSR), modeled GH saturations match drilling data. Overall, salt diapir movement‐induced GH recycling provides a temperature‐driven mechanism by which GH saturations at the BGHSZ may reach >90 vol. % and by which GH volumes near and free gas volumes beneath the BGHSZ may be increased significantly through time. Interestingly, comparison of salt diapir‐driven recycling and sediment burial‐driven recycling scenarios suggests notably higher rates of recycling via diapir‐driven versus burial‐driven processes. Our results suggest that GH and associated free gas accumulations above salt diapir crests represent particularly attractive targets for unconventional and conventional hydrocarbon resource exploration and for scientific and academic drilling expeditions aimed at exploiting GH systems. Salt basins containing GH systems—including passive margin basins of the Gulf of Mexico, southeastern Brazil, and southwestern Africa—are therefore compelling localities for studying salt‐driven GH recycling and for salt diapir‐associated natural gas exploration.
This work reviews the historical literature associated with the Dragon experiment and water boiler reactors operated at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project. Frisch’s invited talk given at the American Nuclear Society’s Fast Burst Reactor Conference held at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque, New Mexico, in 1969 is quoted. From the literature review, basic models for the Dragon experiment and for a water boiler–type assembly (aqueous homogeneous reactor) were created that can be used for conducting multiphysics simulations for criticality excursion studies. This methodology utilizes the coupled neutronic-hydrodynamic method to perform a time-dependent dynamic simulation of a criticality excursion. MCNP® was utilized to calculate important nuclear kinetic parameters that were incorporated into the models. Simulation results compare reasonably well with historic data.
The goal of our research is to build upon the capability of RELAP5-3D to model molten lead systems. Molten lead has several potential uses in future advanced reactors like the lead fast reactor or fusion reactors that utilize dual-coolant lead lithium blankets. This potential for use in future generations of reactors highlights the necessity to develop molten lead models to ensure that they can accurately predict the thermohydraulic behavior. We have developed a RELAP5-3D model of the Lobo Lead Loop facility, located at the University of New Mexico, to verify the accuracy of RELAP5-3D via comparison to existing computational fluid dynamics results and analytical calculations. It was found that RELAP5-3D accurately calculated radiative heat transfer (within < 1%) when compared to theoretical calculations. In addition, pressure drop calculations done in RELAP5-3D demonstrated reasonable agreement within 20 kPa, mostly within ~7-15%, when compared to the computational fluid dynamics model of the facility developed by the University of New Mexico, and captured the dependence of pressure drop on flow velocity accurately. Finally, a hypothetical loss of flow transient was imposed on the RELAP5-3D model to determine the feasibility of performing a similar experiment with the Lobo Lead Loop. It was found that such an experiment could be possible as the RELAP5-3D model indicated that the temperatures of the fluid would not exceed limiting temperatures of the structure (1658 K) nor the maximum temperature of the electromagnetic pump inlet (823 K). Although there is not experimental data to begin validation, the model will be readily available for future validation studies when the experimental data is generated, especially as the model continues to evolve over time. Furthermore, the results so far demonstrate a promising first step in the verification/validation of the RELAP5-3D model of the Lobo Lead Loop.
During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed ‘The Gadget’ that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, 238Pu and 239Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses. Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose. There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.
Regional geoengineering, by reflecting sunlight over a very limited spatial domain, might be considered as a means to target specific regional impacts of climate change. One of the obvious concerns raised by such approaches is the extent to which the resulting effects would be detectable well beyond the targeted region (e.g. in neighbouring countries). A few studies have explored this question for targeted regions that are still comparatively large. We consider idealized simulations with increased ocean albedo over relatively small domains; the Gulf of Mexico (0.23% of Earth's surface) and over the Australian Great Barrier Reef (0.07%), both with negligible global radiative forcing. Applied over these very small domains, the only statistically significant non-local changes we find are some limited reduction on summer precipitation in Florida in the Gulf of Mexico case (adjacent to the targeted region). The lack of transboundary effects suggests that governance needs for such targeted interventions are quite distinct from those for more global sunlight reflection.
Abstract As tropical forests cycle the most water and carbon, it is crucial to understand the short- and long-term effects of intensifying cyclones on these ecosystems. Soil nutrient status has been shown to moderate forest cyclone responses using field litterfall measurements, but litterfall is one of the multiple cyclone impact metrtics, which may or may not be correlated with one another or with site nutrients. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to quantify immediate damage and two-year recovery for 42 cases across nine tropical forests in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Australia, and Taiwan affected by 12 cyclones between 2004 and 2017. We tested whether changes in leaf area index (LAI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) correlated with changes in litterfall observations and how changes varied with total soil phosphorus (P) concentrations across regions. We compared cyclone-induced changes and recovery of LAI and EVI to litterfall observations compiled in a pantropical meta-analysis. We found large variation in changes in LAI and EVI across forests, with the greatest reductions in LAI (−77%) and EVI (−77%) in Mexico (Jalisco) and Puerto Rico, respectively. LAI ( r = −0.52) and EVI ( r = −0.60) changes correlated with those in litterfall across cases. Post-cyclone data showed recovery of LAI by four months, EVI by two months, and litterfall by ten months. We detected larger changes in LAI and EVI in forests with higher soil P, but these relationships were not significant when accounting for cyclone and site as random effects. Principal component analyses indicated a regional clustering of cases related to their contrasting cyclone regimes, with the frequency and intensity of cyclone events negatively correlated. Overall, remote sensing observations complement but do not substitute for ground observations that reveal cyclone damage and post-cyclone recovery in tropical forests, and soil phosphorus moderates some but not all metrics of stability in response to cyclones.
Abstract Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence.