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At least 253 records · Page 14

An Advanced Cyber-Physical System Security Testbed for Substation Automation

A Cyber-Physical System (CPS) testbed serves as a powerful platform for testing and validating cyber intrusion detection and mitigation strategies in substations. This study presents the design and development of a CPS testbed that can effectively assess the real-time dynamics of a substation. Cyber attacks exploiting IEC 61850-based SV and GOOSE protocols are demonstrated using the testbed, along with an analysis on attack detection. Realistic timing measurements are obtained, and the time frames for deploying detection and mitigation strategies are evaluated.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Ultra Reliability for Project for NASA

NASA has embarked on a new program designed to improve the reliability of NASA systems. In this context, the goal for ultra reliability is to ultimately improve the systems by an order of magnitude. The approach outlined in this presentation involves five steps: 1. Divide NASA systems into seven sectors; 2. Establish sector champions and representatives from each NASA center; 3. Develop a challenge list for each sector using a team of NASA experts in each area with the sector champion facilitating the effort; 4. Develop mitigation strategies for each of the sectors' challenge lists and rank their importance by holding a workshop with area experts from government (NASA and non-NASA), universities and industry; 5. Develop a set of tasks for each sector in order of importance for improving the reliability of NASA systems. Several NASA-wide workshops have been held, identifying issues for reliability improvement and providing mitigation strategies for these issues.

ultra-reliability↗

Estimating the Impacts of Increasing Temperatures and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates with Deep Learning

As urbanization and climate change progress, understanding and addressing urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in the urban core can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy demand for cooling. However, modeling the urban microclimate is an ongoing field of research typically burdened by an imprecise description of the built environment, incomplete observational records, significant computational cost, and a lack of high-resolution estimates of the impacts of increasing temperatures. Here, we present computationally efficient machine learning methods that can improve the accuracy of urban temperature estimates when compared to historical reanalysis data. These models are applied to a neighborhood in Los Angeles, and we compare the energy benefits of heat mitigation strategies to the impacts of climate change. We find that cooling demand is likely to increase substantially through midcentury, but engineered high-albedo surfaces could lessen this increase by more than 50 %. The corresponding increase in winter gas heating offsets the summer cooling benefit in the current climate, but total annual energy use from combined heating and cooling with electric heat pumps benefits from the engineered heat mitigation strategies under both current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Texturizing Wind Turbine Towers to Reduce Bat Mortality

There is still a great need for the development of mitigation strategies that are economically viable and can be used alone or in combination with other options (e.g., operational minimization, acoustic deterrents) to ensure that bat fatalities are effectively reduced at wind facilities across the U.S. Our goal was to develop a wind turbine tower coating that 1) bats show little or no interest in approaching, 2) can be applied to currently deployed wind turbine towers and to towers as they are constructed, 3) is economically feasible to produce and apply, and 4) ultimately contributes to a reduction in bat mortality at utility-scale wind facilities. Wind turbine tower monopoles are large, smooth surfaces and numerous studies have reported bats making close investigative approaches at turbine tower surfaces that are suggestive of drinking and foraging behavior. We therefore hypothesized that such activity could be contributing to bat-wind turbine fatalities by increasing the amount of time that bats spend in or around the rotor-swept zone. We further hypothesized that a texturizing the tower might minimized bat activity at the towers and therefore reduce fatality risk. To explore this, we designed a series of experiments to characterize how bats interact with smooth and texture-treated surfaces in a controlled environment. We conducted 64 behavioral trials in a flight facility from 10 June to 25 September 2015 and an additional 76 behavioral trials from 9 June to 30 August 2016. The first set of trials showed that while bats did make contact with smooth surfaces, they did not make contact with textured surfaces. We ascertained that bat activity occurred at 0 to 1 m distances from surfaces, suggesting that the bats (used in this study) may need to be this close to a surface to accurately discern its texture. From the results were developed a texture coating. For the second set of trials, we tested the texture coating. Bats showed a >40% reduction in activity within 1 m of the textured surfaces in comparison to the smooth surfaces. Following these controlled experiments, we conducted field tests at Wolf Ridge Wind, LLC. We applied the texture coating to the midsection of turbine monopoles. The texture coating was manually applied to 2 turbine towers, although we noted during the application there was variation in texture coating between turbines. We considered that this variation could potentially impact bat behavior. We then conducted bat activity surveys at both texture-treated towers and 2 nearby control towers, over 55 nights from 24 June to 22 September, 2017. All species of bats known to be present at the site were detected in the acoustic recordings at these turbine towers. We found no significant differences in overall numbers of bats observed and levels of acoustic activity at the smooth and texture-treated towers. When we analyzed the experimental pairs separately, however, we found that a greater proportion of the close range bat activity within Pair 1 occurred at the texture-treated tower and that much of this activity could be attributed to foraging behavior. In contrast at turbine Pair 2, we observed no difference in the proportion of close range bat activity between the smooth and texture-treated tower, with no clear differences in behavior at the two tower types. When we examined acoustic bat activity at the tower pairs separately, we found species-specific differences in activity that differed between the smooth and texture-treated towers within the pairs. For example, hoary bat acoustic activity was significantly higher at the texture-treated tower in Pair 1, but significantly lower at the texture-treated tower in Pair 2. Given the observational nature of the field test, our limited sample size (2 turbine pairs), variation in the texture-coating between the 2 turbine pairs, and different patterns of bat activity observed at the 2 turbine pairs, inferences from this one field test are limited at best. In conclusion, the results from the flight facility experiments were promising (i.e., we observed a significant decrease in bat activity at smooth compared to texture-treated surfaces); however, due to coating installation and application challenges prior to our field test, we were unable to collect sufficient information to understand how these coatings affect bat activity at operational wind turbine towers. Although the results from the field test are inconclusive, the lessons learned will be informative for future research into turbine surface materials that can modify the surface of the turbine tower and therefore alter how bats perceive wind towers. Thus, the outcomes of this research project may have a significant impact on wind energy operators, wind developers, and OEMs by contributing to future impact mitigation strategies. In future research we will test new ideas to improve the development, application, and evaluation of this mitigation technique.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Influence of Nanoconfinement and Elevated Temperatures on Geocolloid-Facilitated Transport of Energy related Contaminants

Fossil fuels obtained using hydraulic fracturing and nuclear energy are deemed crucial for meeting the current and future energy demands of the United States. The utilization of these resources, especially fossil fuels from hydraulic fracturing, has increased rapidly within the last decade. However, with the increasing levels of hydraulic fracturing activities, the occurrence and fate of chemicals used in these processes in the geosystem, as well as the potential consequences of their interactions with environment and geosystems (e.g. mineral-based geocolloids and geosurfaces), have been increasingly recognized as issues warranting consideration owing to the toxic nature of these chemicals. Scientific results originated from this project has brought better understandings on how such contaminants can preferentially or adversely interact with geosystems and how geocolloids can facilitate their transport by realistically mimicking geological conditions and environments in the laboratory level for the first time. Based on such knowledge, it may eventually lead to the development of mitigation strategies for reducing and minimizing the transport and wide distribution of contaminants and pollutants. This aspect is important for the society to ensure that energy-related contaminants do not find their way to waterbodies that are used as drinking water or irrigation. The project is also anticipated to increase public awareness about potential adverse effects of energy systems on the geosphere and environment and may motivate society to consider better mitigation strategies to prevent such occurrences.

(Nano)Confinement↗

Geothermal Drilling: A Baseline Study of Nonproductive Time Related to Lost Circulation

A single production geothermal well costs up to seven million dollars and a typical geothermal field contains 10 to 20 wells for a development cost of potentially $140 million according to a Geothermal Resources Group study. Capital cost coupled with exploration and resource uncertainty lead to high upfront project risk. This study analyzed the time and cost of detailed geothermal drilling operations. We found the largest cause of nonproductive time in geothermal wells is advancing through lost circulation zones, where drilling fluid is lost from the well. Mitigation measures implemented during lost circulation events can increase drilling time by a significant fraction of the drilling days. There is opportunity to reduce the drilling costs by addressing logistical inefficiencies and ineffective mitigation measures to minimize nonproductive time. This study reviewed daily drilling data for 38 geothermal wells drilled since 2009 in the U.S. The analysis presented here summarizes the lost circulation events identified in the available drilling data by assessing time per event, costs incurred, materials used, success of mitigation strategies, and resolution time. This study found that wells averaged over 100 hours of unprogrammed nonproductive time due to lost circulation, adding an estimated $185,000 to each well in rig costs. A plan for future research aimed at reducing lost circulation nonproductive time and cost is presented. operations. We found the largest cause of nonproductive time in geothermal wells is advancing through lost circulation zones, where drilling fluid is lost from the well. Mitigation measures implemented during lost circulation events can increase drilling time by a significant fraction of the drilling days. There is opportunity to reduce the drilling costs by addressing logistical inefficiencies and ineffective mitigation measures to minimize nonproductive time. This study reviewed daily drilling data for 38 geothermal wells drilled since 2009 in the U.S. The analysis presented here summarizes the lost circulation events identified in the available drilling data by assessing time per event, costs incurred, materials used, success of mitigation strategies, and resolution time. This study found that wells averaged over 100 hours of unprogrammed nonproductive time due to lost circulation, adding an estimated $185,000 to each well in rig costs. A plan for future research aimed at reducing lost circulation nonproductive time and cost is presented.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Remote Diagnosis and Operational Response to an In-Flight Failure of the Drill Feed Mechanism Onboard the Mars Science Laboratory Rover

On November 30th, 2016 (Sol 1536 of the mission), the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) flight operations team commanded the Curiosity rover to drill into a Martian rock to acquire the mission’s 16th rock powder sample. The drilling operation was halted when the drill feed mechanism unexpectedly stalled shortly after disengaging its magnetically-actuated friction brake at the start of a long move to extend the drill bit into contact with the target rock. The drilling campaign was put on hold and later abandoned as diagnostic experimentation revealed a tendency for the actuator to transition in and out of a high-drag state in which the mechanism could not actuate. In the subsequent months, the team conducted a variety of in-flight and ground-based investigations to determine root cause and identify mitigation strategies for continued operation. Mechanism reliability continued to degrade and by June 2017, it became clear that the mechanism could not be relied upon to support drilling operations. The team succeeded in fully extending the feed, enabling the development of new sampling techniques that would not rely on the feed mechanism. The first feed-extended drilling sample was successfully collected on Sol 2057, 521 sols after the initial feed stall. This paper discusses the anomaly investigation process, failure analysis, and feed mechanism operation mitigation strategies. It concludes with key lessons learned about mechanism design, mission architecture, and operational best practices.

Lin, Megan Richardson↗

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Minimum Operations Performance Standards End-to-End Verification and Validation (E2-V2) Simulation

As Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) make their way to mainstream aviation operations within the National Airspace System (NAS), research efforts are underway to develop a safe and effective environment for their integration into the NAS. Detect and Avoid (DAA) systems are required to account for the lack of "eyes in the sky" due to having no human on-board the aircraft. The current NAS relies on pilot's vigilance and judgement to remain Well Clear (CFR 14 91.113) of other aircraft. RTCA SC-228 has defined DAA Well Clear (DAAWC) to provide a quantified Well Clear volume to allow systems to be designed and measured against. Extended research efforts have been conducted to understand and quantify system requirements needed to support a UAS pilot's ability to remain well clear of other aircraft. The efforts have included developing and testing sensor, algorithm, alerting, and display requirements. More recently, sensor uncertainty and uncertainty mitigation strategies have been evaluated. This paper discusses results and lessons learned from an End-to-End Verification and Validation (E2-V2) simulation study of a DAA system representative of RTCA SC-228's proposed Phase I DAA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS). NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) was called upon to develop a system that evaluates a specific set of encounters, in a variety of geometries, with end-to-end DAA functionality including the use of sensor and tracker models, a sensor uncertainty mitigation model, DAA algorithmic guidance in both vertical and horizontal maneuvering, and a pilot model which maneuvers the ownship aircraft to remain well clear from intruder aircraft, having received collective input from the previous modules of the system. LaRC developed a functioning batch simulation and added a sensor/tracker model from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) William J. Hughes Technical Center, an in-house developed sensor uncertainty mitigation strategy, and implemented a pilot model similar to one from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL). The resulting simulation provides the following key parameters, among others, to evaluate the effectiveness of the MOPS DAA system: severity of loss of well clear (SLoWC), alert scoring, and number of increasing alerts (alert jitter). The technique, results, and lessons learned from a detailed examination of DAA system performance over specific test vectors and encounter cases during the simulation experiment will be presented in this paper.

Ghatas, Rania W.↗

Near-Earth Object Surveyor Overview

The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor is designed to detect, categorize and characterize Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) using infrared imaging. The project was approved to enter the preliminary design phase (Phase B) in FY21 after an extended Concept Development Phase (Phase A). The NEO Surveyor project responds to US Public Law 109-155[1], National Research Council’s report “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys & Hazard Mitigation Strategies (2010)”[2], the U. S. National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (June 2018)[3], and the objectives of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The goals of the NEO Surveyor project are to: (1) identify impact hazards to the Earth posed by NEOs (defined as asteroids and comets that come within 1.3 AU of the Sun) by performing a comprehensive survey of the NEO population; (2) obtain detailed physical characterization data for individual objects that are likely to pose an impact hazard; (3) characterize the entire population of potentially hazardous NEOs to inform potential mitigation strategies. The mission will make significant progress toward the George E. Brown, Jr. NEO Survey Program objective defined by the U. S. Congress of detecting, tracking, cataloging, and characterizing at least 90% of NEOs equal to or larger than 140 m in diameter. The project is a collaboration between NASA-JPL, the University of Arizona (UA) and industry, with Ball Aerospace notably providing the spacecraft and key instrument elements. This paper will describe the overall NEO Surveyor Project objectives, initial spacecraft and instrument design and development plans and mission concept.

Veto, Michael↗

The Application of Satellite-Derived, High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data to Improve Urban Air Quality Model Forecasts

Local and state agencies are responsible for developing state implementation plans to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Numerical models used for this purpose simulate the transport and transformation of criteria pollutants and their precursors. The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) plays an important role in controlling modeled surface meteorology and emissions. NASA researchers have worked with partners and Atlanta stakeholders to incorporate an improved high-resolution LULC dataset for the Atlanta area within their modeling system and to assess meteorological and air quality impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigation strategies. The new LULC dataset provides a more accurate representation of land use, has the potential to improve model accuracy, and facilitates prediction of LULC changes. Use of the new LULC dataset for two summertime episodes improved meteorological forecasts, with an existing daytime cold bias of approx. equal to 3 C reduced by 30%. Model performance for ozone prediction did not show improvement. In addition, LULC changes due to Atlanta area urbanization were predicted through 2030, for which model simulations predict higher urban air temperatures. The incorporation of UHI mitigation strategies partially offset this warming trend. The data and modeling methods used are generally applicable to other U.S. cities.

Quattrochi, D. A.↗

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Process-based quality management for clinical implementation of adaptive radiotherapy

Purpose: Intensity-modulated adaptive radiotherapy (ART) has been the focus of considerable research and developmental work due to its potential therapeutic benefits. However, in light of its unique quality assurance (QA) challenges, no one has described a robust framework for its clinical implementation. In fact, recent position papers by ASTRO and AAPM have firmly endorsed pretreatment patient-specific IMRT QA, which limits the feasibility of online ART. The authors aim to address these obstacles by applying failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify high-priority errors and appropriate risk-mitigation strategies for clinical implementation of intensity-modulated ART. Methods: An experienced team of two clinical medical physicists, one clinical engineer, and one radiation oncologist was assembled to perform a standard FMEA for intensity-modulated ART. A set of 216 potential radiotherapy failures composed by the forthcoming AAPM task group 100 (TG-100) was used as the basis. Of the 216 failures, 127 were identified as most relevant to an ART scheme. Using the associated TG-100 FMEA values as a baseline, the team considered how the likeliness of occurrence (O), outcome severity (S), and likeliness of failure being undetected (D) would change for ART. New risk priority numbers (RPN) were calculated. Failures characterized by RPN ≥ 200 were identified as potentially critical. Results: FMEA revealed that ART RPN increased for 38% (n = 48/127) of potential failures, with 75% (n = 36/48) attributed to failures in the segmentation and treatment planning processes. Forty-three of 127 failures were identified as potentially critical. Risk-mitigation strategies include implementing a suite of quality control and decision support software, specialty QA software/hardware tools, and an increase in specially trained personnel. Conclusions: Results of the FMEA-based risk assessment demonstrate that intensity-modulated ART introduces different (but not necessarily more) risks than standard IMRT and may be safely implemented with the proper mitigations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Monte Carlo Driven MDI Optimization at a Muon Collider

A Muon Collider represents a very interesting possibility for a future machine to explore the energy frontier in particle physics. However, to reach the needed luminosity, beam intensities of the order of 10⁹–10¹² muons per bunch are needed. In this context, the Beam-Induced Background must be taken into account for its effects on magnets and detector. Several mitigation strategies can however be conceived. In this view, it is of crucial importance to develop a flexible tool that allows to easily reconstruct the machine geometry in a Monte Carlo code, allowing to simulate in detail the interaction of muon decay products in the machine, while being able to change the machine optics itself to find the best configuration. In this contribution, a possible approach to such a purpose is presented, based on FLUKA for the Monte Carlo simulation and on LineBuilder for the geometry reconstruction. Results based on the 1.5 TeV machine optics developed by the MAP collaboration are discussed, as well as a first approach to possible mitigation strategies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO 2 emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO 2 emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO 2 emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safety initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves and Energy Prices

Wildfire seasons in the Western U.S. become more prolonged and intense in recent years bringing significant variability and uncertainty of solar generation. It greatly challenges the bulk power system and electricity market operation managed by California Independent System Operator (CAISO) as California leads both the wildfire records and the solar power integration. This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impact of wildfires on solar generation, operating reserve and energy prices applying historical real-world wildfire and market operation data. To the best of the authors knowledge, it is a first-of-its-kind study and will lay the foundation for market impact quantification and wildfire mitigation strategies design based on projected wildfire activities in future years.

electricity price↗