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Lessons Learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science

This summary has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The planning committee's role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the report are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the planning committee, or the National Research Council. This summary was written using video recordings of the entire workshop proceedings. Speakers attributed in this summary were not asked to review the workshop summary before its release. This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this summary: George Paulikas, The Aerospace Corporation (retired), Marcia Rieke, University of Arizona, Kunio Sayanagi, Hampton University, Marcia Smith, Space and Technology Policy Group, LLC, and Warren Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kenneth Kellermann, National Radio Astronomy Observatory. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and the institution.

Groswald, Lewis↗

Statistics Clinic

Do you have elevated p‐values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Conducting Miller-Urey Experiments

In 1953, Stanley Miller reported the production of biomolecules from simple gaseous starting materials, using apparatus constructed to simulate the primordial Earth's atmosphere-ocean system. Miller introduced 200 ml of water, 100 mmHg of H2, 200mmHg of CH4, and 200mmHg of NH3 into the apparatus, then subjected this mixture, under reflux, to an electric discharge for a week, while the water was simultaneously heated. The purpose of this manuscript is to provide the reader with a general experimental protocol that can be used to conduct a Miller-Urey type spark discharge experiment, using a simplified 3 L reaction flask. Since the experiment involves exposing inflammable gases to a high voltage discharge, it is worth highlighting important steps that reduce the risk of explosion. The general procedures described in this work can be extrapolated to design and conduct a wide variety of electric discharge experiments simulating primitive planetary environments.

Prebiotic chemistry↗

Buckling Testing and Analysis of Honeycomb Sandwich Panel Arc Segments of a Full-Scale Fairing Barrel: 8-ply Out-of-Autoclave Facesheets - Part 3

Four honeycomb sandwich panels, representing 1/16th arc segments of a 10 m diameter barrel section of the heavy lift launch vehicle, were manufactured under the NASA Composites for Exploration program and the NASA Constellation Ares V program. Two configurations were chosen for the panels: 6-ply facesheets with 1.125 in. honeycomb core and 8-ply facesheets with 1.000 in. honeycomb core. Additionally, two separate carbon fiber/epoxy material systems were chosen for the facesheets: inautoclave IM7/977-3 and out-of-autoclave T40-800B/5320-1. Smaller 3- by 5-ft panels were cut from the 1/16th barrel sections. These panels were tested under compressive loading at the NASA Langley Research Center. Furthermore, linear eigenvalue and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses were performed to predict the compressive response of the 3- by 5-ft panels. This manuscript summarizes the experimental and analytical modeling efforts pertaining to the panel composed of 8-ply, T40-800B/5320-1 facesheets (referred to as Panel C). To improve the robustness of the geometrically nonlinear finite element model, measured surface imperfections were included in the geometry of the model. Both the linear and nonlinear, two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D), models yield good qualitative and quantitative predictions. Additionally, it was predicted correctly that the panel would fail in buckling prior to failing in strength.

heavy lift launch vehicles↗

Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

Determining the effect of space travel on the human immune system has proven to be extremely challenging. Limited opportunities for in-flight studies, varying mission durations, technical and logistical obstacles, small subject numbers, and a broad range of potential assays have contributed to this problem. Additionally, the inherent complexity of the immune system, with its vast array of cell populations, sub-populations, diverse regulatory molecules, and broad interactions with other physiological systems, makes determining precise variables to measure very difficult. There is also the challenge of determining the clinical significance of any observed immune alterations. Will such a change lead to disease, or is it a transient subclinical observation related to short-term stress? The effect of this problem may be observed by scanning publications associated with immunity and spaceflight, which began to appear during the 1970s. Although individually they are each valid studies, the comprehensive literature to date suffers from widely varying sampling methods and assay techniques, low subject counts, and sometimes a disparate focus on narrow aspects of immunity. The most clinically relevant data are derived from in-flight human studies, which have demonstrated altered cell-mediated immunity and reactivation of latent herpes viruses. Much more data are available from post-flight testing of humans, with clear evidence of altered cytokine production patterns, altered leukocyte distribution, continued latent viral reactivation, and evidence of dramatically altered virus-specific immunity. It is unknown if post-flight assessments relate to the in-flight condition or are a response to landing stress and readaptation. In-flight culture of cells has clearly demonstrated that immune cells are gravity-sensitive and display altered functional characteristics. It is unknown if these data are related to in vivo immune cell function or are an artifact of microgravity culture. Ground analog testing of humans and animals, as well as microgravity-analog cell culture, has demonstrated utility. However, in all cases, it is not known with certainty if these data would reflect similar testing during space travel. Given their ready availability, ground analogs may be extremely useful for assay development and the evaluation of potential countermeasures. In general, the evidence base suffers from widely disparate studies on small numbers of subjects that do not directly correlate well with each other or spaceflight itself. Also lacking are investigations of the effect of gender on adaption to spaceflight. This results in significant knowledge 'gaps' that must be filled by future studies to completely determine any clinical risk related to immunity for human exploration-class space missions. These gaps include a significant lack of in-flight data, particularly during long-duration space missions. The International Space Station represents an excellent science platform with which to address this knowledge gap. Other knowledge gaps include lack of a single validated ground analog for the phenomenon and a lack of flight-compatible laboratory equipment capable of monitoring astronauts (for either clinical or research purposes). However, enough significant data exist, as described in this manuscript, to warrant addressing this phenomenon during the utilization phase of the ISS. A recent Space Shuttle investigation has confirmed the 31 in-flight nature of immune dysregulation, demonstrating that it is not merely a post-flight phenomenon. Several current studies are ongoing onboard the ISS that should thoroughly characterize the phenomenon. NASA recognizes that if spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation persists during exploration flights in conjunction with other dangers, such as high-energy radiation, the result may be a significant clinical risk. This emphasizes the need for a continued integrated comprehensive approach to determining the effect of prolonged spaceflight, separated from transient launch and landing stresses, on human immunity. After such studies, the phenomenon will be understood, and, hopefully, a monitoring strategy will have been developed that could be used to monitor the effectiveness of countermeasure

Crucian, Brian↗

Refreshable Braille Displays Using EAP Actuators

Refreshable Braille can help visually impaired persons benefit from the growing advances in computer technology. The development of such displays in a full screen form is a great challenge due to the need to pack many actuators in small area without interferences. In recent years, various displays using actuators such as piezoelectric stacks have become available in commercial form but most of them are limited to one line Braille code. Researchers in the field of electroactive polymers (EAP) investigated methods of using these materials to form full screen displays. This manuscript reviews the state of the art of producing refreshable Braille displays using EAP-based actuators..

Electroactive Polymers↗

Characterization of Pump-Induced Acoustics in Space Launch System Main Propulsion System Liquid Hydrogen Feedline Using Airflow Test Data

High intensity acoustic edgetones located upstream of the RS-25 Low Pressure Fuel Turbo Pump (LPFTP) were previously observed during Space Launch System (STS) airflow testing of a model Main Propulsion System (MPS) liquid hydrogen (LH2) feedline mated to a modified LPFTP. MPS hardware has been adapted to mitigate the problematic edgetones as part of the Space Launch System (SLS) program. A follow-on airflow test campaign has subjected the adapted hardware to tests mimicking STS-era airflow conditions, and this manuscript describes acoustic environment identification and characterization born from the latest test results. Fluid dynamics responsible for driving discrete excitations were well reproduced using legacy hardware. The modified design was found insensitive to high intensity edgetone-like discretes over the bandwidth of interest to SLS MPS unsteady environments. Rather, the natural acoustics of the test article were observed to respond in a narrowband-random/mixed discrete manner to broadband noise thought generated by the flow field. The intensity of these responses were several orders of magnitude reduced from those driven by edgetones.

Eberhart, C. J.↗

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗

A Battery Certification Testbed for Small Satellite Missions

A battery pack consisting of standard cylindrical 18650 lithium-ion cells has been chosen for small satellite missions based on previous flight heritage and compliance with NASA battery safety requirements. However, for batteries that transit through the International Space Station (ISS), additional certification tests are required for individual cells as well as the battery packs. In this manuscript, we discuss the development of generalized testbeds for testing and certifying different types of batteries critical to small satellite missions. Test procedures developed and executed for this certification effort include: a detailed physical inspection before and after experiments; electrical cycling characterization at the cell and pack levels; battery-pack overcharge, over-discharge, external short testing; battery-pack vacuum leak and vibration testing. The overall goals of these certification procedures are to conform to requirements set forth by the agency and identify unique safety hazards. The testbeds, procedures, and experimental results are discussed for batteries chosen for small satellite missions to be launched from the ISS.

Certification↗

Spatial Variability of Trace Gases During DISCOVER-AQ: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

Results from an in-depth analysis of trace gas variability in MD indicated that the variability in this region was large enough to be observable by a TEMPO-like instrument. The variability observed in MD is relatively similar to the other three campaigns with a few exceptions: CO variability in CA was much higher than in the other regions; HCHO variability in CA and CO was much lower; MD showed the lowest variability in NO2All model simulations do a reasonable job simulating O3 variability. For CO, the CACO simulations largely under over estimate the variability in the observations. The variability in HCHO is underestimated for every campaign. NO2 variability is slightly overestimated in MD, more so in CO. The TX simulation underestimates the variability in each trace gas. This is most likely due to missing emissions sources (C. Loughner, manuscript in preparation).Future Work: Where reasonable, we will use these model outputs to further explore the resolvability from space of these key trace gases using analyses of tropospheric column amounts relative to satellite precision requirements, similar to Follette-Cook et al. (2015).

trace gas↗

Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.

Planetary Boundary Layer↗

Verification of Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) Insertion for Reliable and Trusted Systems

We propose a method for TMR insertion verification that satisfies the process for reliable and trusted systems. If a system is expected to be protected using TMR, improper insertion can jeopardize the reliability and security of the system. Due to the complexity of the verification process, there are currently no available techniques that can provide complete and reliable confirmation of TMR insertion. This manuscript addresses the challenge of confirming that TMR has been inserted without corruption of functionality and with correct application of the expected TMR topology. The proposed verification method combines the usage of existing formal analysis tools with a novel search-detect-and-verify tool. Field programmable gate array (FPGA),Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR),Verification, Trust, Reliability,

Trust↗

Quantified Energy Dissipation Rates in the Terrestrial Bow Shock: Analysis Techniques and Methodology - 1.

We present a detailed outline and discussion of the analysis techniques used to compare the relevance of different energy dissipation mechanisms at collisionless shock waves. We show that the low-frequency, quasi-static fields contribute less to ohmic energy dissipation, (−j ⋅ E ) (minus current density times measured electric field), than their high-frequency counterparts. In fact, we found that high-frequency, large-amplitude (greater than 100 millivolts per meter and/or greater than 1 nanotesla) waves are ubiquitous in the transition region of collisionless shocks. We quantitatively show that their fields, through wave-particle interactions, cause enough energy dissipation to regulate the global structure of collisionless shocks. The purpose of this paper, part one of two, is to outline and describe in detail the background, analysis techniques, and theoretical motivation for our new results presented in the companion paper. The companion paper presents the results of our quantitative energy dissipation rate estimates and discusses the implications. Together, the two manuscripts present the first study quantifying the contribution that high-frequency waves provide, through wave-particle interactions, to the total energy dissipation budget of collisionless shock waves.

Terrestrial bow↗

Electromagnetic and Light Scattering by Nonspherical Particles XV: Celebrating 150 Years of Maxwell's Electromagnetics

The 15th Electromagnetic and Light Scattering Conference (ELS-XV) was held in Leipzig, Germany from 21 to 26 of June 2015. This conference built on the great success of the previous meetings held in Amsterdam (1995), Helsinki(1997) [2], New York City(1998) [3], Vigo (1999),Halifax (2000), Gainesville (2002), Bremen (2003), Salobreña (2005), St. Petersburg (2006), Bodrum (2007), Hatfield (2008), Helsinki (2010), Taormina (2011), and Lille as well as the workshops held in Bremen (1996,1998) and Moscow (1997). As usual, the main objective of this conference was to bring together scientists, engineers, and PhD students studying various aspects of electromagnetic scattering and to provide a relaxed atmosphere for in-depth discussion of theory, measurements, and applications. Furthermore, ELS-XV supported the United Nations "Year of Light" and celebrated the150th anniversary of Maxwell's electromagnetics. Maxwell's paper on "A Dynamical Theory of the Electromagnetic Field" was published in1865 and has widely been acknowledged as one of the supreme achievements in the history of science. The conference was attended by136 scientists from 22 countries. The scientific program included two plenary lectures, 16 invited reviews, 88 contributed oral talks, and 70 poster presentations. The program and the abstracts of conference presentations are available at the conference website http://www.els-xv-2015.net/home.html. Following the well-established ELS practice and with Elsevier's encouragement, we solicited full-size papers for a topical issue of the Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer (JQSRT). The result of this collective effort is now in the reader's hands. As always, every invited review and regular paper included in this topical issue has undergone the same rigorous peer review process as any other manuscript published in the JQSRT.

light scattering↗

Maneuver Performance Assessment of the Cassini Spacecraft Through Execution-Error Modeling and Analysis

The Cassini spacecraft has executed nearly 300 maneuvers since 1997, providing ample data for execution-error model updates. With maneuvers through 2017, opportunities remain to improve on the models and remove biases identified in maneuver executions. This manuscript focuses on how execution-error models can be used to judge maneuver performance, while providing a means for detecting performance degradation. Additionally, this paper describes Cassini's execution-error model updates in August 2012. An assessment of Cassini's maneuver performance through OTM-368 on January 5, 2014 is also presented.

Wagner, Sean↗

Infrared Observations of the Orion Capsule During EFT-1 Hypersonic Reentry

High-resolution infrared observations of the Orion capsule during its atmospheric reentry on December 5, 2015 were made from a US Navy NP-3D. This aircraft, equipped with a long-range optical sensor system, tracked the capsule from Mach 10 to 7 from a distance of approximately 60 nmi. Global surface temperatures of the capsule's thermal heatshield were derived from near infrared intensity measurements. The global surface temperature measurements complemented onboard instrumentation and were invaluable to the interpretation of the in-depth thermocouple measurements which rely on inverse heat transfer methods and material response codes to infer the desired surface temperature from the sub-surface measurements. The full paper will address the motivations behind the NASA Engineering Safety Center sponsored observation and highlight premission planning processes with an emphasis on aircraft placement, optimal instrument configuration and sensor calibrations. Critical aspects of mission operations coordinated from the NASA Johnson Spaceflight Center and integration with the JSC Flight Test Management Office will be discussed. A summary of the imagery that was obtained and processed to global surface temperature will be presented. At the capsule's point of closest approach relative to the imaging system, the spatial resolution was estimated to be approximately 15-inches per pixel and was sufficient to identify localized temperature increases associated with compression pad support hardware on the heatshield. The full paper will discuss the synergy of the quantitative imagery derived temperature maps with in-situ thermocouple measurements. Comparison of limited onboard surface thermocouple data to the image derived surface temperature will be presented. The two complimentary measurements serve as an example of the effective leveraging of resources to advance the understanding of high Mach number environments associated with an ablated heatshield and provide unique data for the validation of design tools and numerical flight simulation techniques. Collaborative opportunities and technology investments in support of planned observations of NASA's next Orion flight test in 2018 will be explored in the full manuscript.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗

Thermal Vacuum Chamber Repressurization with Instrument Purging

At the conclusion of cryogenic vacuum testing of the James Webb Space Telescope Optical Telescope Element Integrated Science Instrument Module (JWST-OTIS) in NASA Johnson Space Center’s (JSCs) thermal vacuum (TV) Chamber A, contamination control (CC) engineers are postulating that chamber particulate material stirred up by the repressurization process may be kept from falling into the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) interior to some degree by activating instrument purge flows over some initial period before opening the chamber valves. This manuscript describes development of a series of models designed to describe this process. The models are strung together in tandem with a fictitious set of conditions to estimate overpressure evolution from which net outflow velocity behavior may be obtained. Creeping flow assumptions are then used to determine the maximum particle size that may be kept suspended above the ISIM aperture, keeping smaller particles from settling within the instrument module.

Repressurization↗