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NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Human Research Requirements (LHRR)

Biomedical research will be conducted during transit and on the surface of the Moon to prepare for extended stays on the Moon and to prepare for the exploration of Mars. The objective of the Human Research Program (HRP) is to preserve the health and enhance performance of astronaut explorers. Specific objectives of the HRP include developing the knowledge, capabilities, and necessary countermeasures and technologies in support of human space exploration; focusing on mitigating the highest risks to crew health and performance; and defining and improving human spaceflight medical, environmental, behavioral, and human factors standards. This document contains a detailed description of the resource accommodations, interfaces, and environments to be provided by the Constellation Program (CxP) to support the HRP research in transit and on the lunar surface. Covered, specifically, are the requirements for mass and volume transport; crew availability; ground operations, baseline data collection, and payload processing; power, and data. Volumes and mass are given for transport of conditioned samples only. They do not account for the engineering solution that the Constellation Program will implement (refrigerator/freezer volume/mass). This document does not account for requirements on the Orion vehicle for transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS Program has supplied requirements for this mission.

Denkins, Pamela↗

NASA NTRS2011

Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs

Over the past 50 years, various NASA communities have contributed significantly to maturing NASA s meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD)1 programs to their current state. As a result of these community efforts, and to NASA s credit, NASA s MMOD programs and models are now widely used and respected by the providers and users of both government and commercial satellites, nationally as well as internationally. Satellites have been redesigned to protect critical components from MMOD damage by moving critical components from exterior surfaces to deep inside a satellite s structure. Orbits are monitored and altered to minimize the risk of collision with tracked orbital debris. MMOD shielding added to the International Space Station (ISS) protects critical components and astronauts from potentially catastrophic damage that might result from smaller, untracked debris and meteoroid impacts. The space shuttle, as it orbited Earth, and whether docked to the ISS or not, was optimally oriented to protect its fragile thermal protection and thermal radiation systems from MMOD damage. In addition, astronauts inspected its thermal protection system for MMOD damage before the shuttle reentered Earth s atmosphere; Orion, NASA s capsule to carry astronauts to low Earth orbit, includes designs to mitigate the threat of MMOD damage and provide increased safety to the crew. When a handful of reasonable assumptions are used in NASA s MMOD models, scenarios are uncovered that conclude that the current orbital debris environment has already reached a "tipping point." That is, the amount of debris - in terms of the population of large debris objects, as well as overall mass of debris in orbit - currently in orbit has reached a threshold where it will continually collide with itself, further increasing the population of orbital debris. This increase will lead to corresponding increases in spacecraft failures, which will only create more feedback into the system, increasing the debris population growth rate. The increase thus far has been most rapid in low Earth orbit (LEO), with geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEOs) potentially suffering the same fate, but over a much longer time period. The exact timing and pace of this exponential growth are uncertain, but the serious implications of such a scenario require careful attention because of the strategic importance of U.S. space operations. The Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget contracted with the National Research Council for a study to perform three tasks: review NASA s MMOD programs and efforts, recommend in which of those NASA should increase or decrease its effort or change focus, and determine whether NASA should pursue work in any new MMOD areas. The official letter requesting the study and the full statement of task for the Committee for the Assessment of NASA s Orbital Debris Programs are in Appendixes A and B, respectively.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2021

Target Prioritization and Observing Strategies for the NEID Earth Twin Survey

NEID is a high-resolution optical spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory and will soon join the new generation of extreme precision radial velocity instruments in operation around the world. We plan to use the instrument to conduct the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) over the course of the next 5 years, collecting hundreds of observations of some of the nearest and brightest stars in an effort to probe the regime of Earth-mass exoplanets. Even if we take advantage of the extreme instrumental precision conferred by NEID, it will be difficult to disentangle the weak (~10 cm/s) signals induced by such low-mass, long-period exoplanets from stellar noise for all but the quietest host stars. In this work, we present a set of quantitative selection metrics which we use to identify an initial NETS target list consisting of stars conducive to the detection of exoplanets in the regime of interest. We also outline a set of observing strategies with which we aim to mitigate uncertainty contributions from intrinsic stellar variability and other sources of noise.

Arvind F. Gupta↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Test Methodology for Evaluating Fire Risk Due to Electrical Faults in Oxygen-Enriched Environments

This paper discusses a new test methodology for assessing the safe use of materials found in spacecraft that may be exposed to electrical faults, as performed at the NASA White Sands Test Facility. “Wire-break” testing, modeled after the Cleveland Open Cup method, identifies the conditions under which pyrolyzed material transitions from a brief flash to a propagating flame. The approach focuses on fuel mass liberated through pyrolysis, mixed with oxygen, and ignited by a piloted ignition (spark due to fusion of wire) to achieve flame propagation with the least energy. The test approach attempts to find energy density thresholds derived using I²t values from current-induced heating of various test materials and wire characteristics. The application of the data provides a useful approach to mitigating fire risks in space systems by correlating threshold data to real-world designs and scaling factors, including oxygen pressure, wire diameter, heat sinking, and contained smoke volume. Several case studies, including Apollo missions and hypothetical scenarios, illustrate practical applications of these thresholds to enhance fire safety design considerations in space environments.

methodology↗

NASA NTRS2005

Research Needs in Electrostatics for Lunar and Mars Space Missions

The new space exploratory vision announced by President Bush on January 14, 2004, initiated new activities at the National Science and Space Administration (NASA) for human space missions to further explore our solar system. NASA is undertaking Lunar exploration to support sustained human and robotic exploration of Mars and beyond. A series of robotic missions to the Moon by 2008 to prepare for human exploration as early as 2015 but no later than 2020 are anticipated. In a similar way, missions to the Moon and Mars are being planned in Europe, Japan and Russia. These space missions will require international participation to solve problems in a number of important technological areas where research is needed, including biomedical risk mitigation as well as life support and habitability on the surface of Mars. Mitigation of dust hazards is one of the most important problems to be resolved for both Lunar and Mars missions. Both Lunar and Martian regolith are unique materials and completely different from the terrestrial soils that we are exposed to on earth. The total absence of water and an atmosphere on the moon and the formation of soil and fine dust by micrometeorite impacts over billions of years resulted in a layer of soil with unique properties. The soil is primarily basaltic in composition with a high glass concentration. The depth of the soil layer varies from a few meters in the mare areas (dark areas on the Lunar near side) to tens of meters in the highland areas (the lighter mountainous areas) and the particle size distribution of this dust layer varies widely with a major mass fraction less than 10 micrometer in diameter. The hard soil from the moon which has been extensively studied by several researchers showed clearly unique properties of Lunar soil. Apollo astronauts became aware of the potentially serious threat to crew health and mission hardware that can be caused by the lunar dust. As reported by McKay and Carrier the mass fraction of the lunar dust with particle diameter smaller than 20p.m probably represents up to 30% of the total mass of regolith. Apollo astronaut Dr. Harrison Schmidt reported that these fine dust particles were clinging to the Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) suits and to the visors and were limiting the activity on the surface of the moon. The dust particles that were transported with the EVA suits into the lunar module floated throughout the cabin. Crews inhaled the dust particles and noted that they smelled like gun smoke, caused a chocking sensation in the throat and eye irritation. In addition,, some of the mechanical systems were not functioning well because of the dust deposition. It appeared that the dust particles are highly charged electrostatically and Dr. Schmidt noted that future successful Lunar missions will require appropriate dust mitigation technology for protecting astronauts from inhaling toxic particles and mission's life supporting equipment from contamination with the dust particles.

Calle, Carlos I.↗

NASA NTRS2022

FY22 X-Hab: Colorado School of Mines: Planetary Resource & In-Situ Material Habitat Outfitting for Space Exploration (PRISM-HOUSE)

The Colorado School of Mines (CSM) was awarded a project under the Moon to Mars eXploration Systems and Habitation (M2M X-Hab) Academic Innovation Challenge on June 10, 2021 for the proposed Planetary Resource & In-Situ Material Habitat Outfitting for Space Exploration (PRISM-HOUSE) lunar habitat system. The project deliverables have been executed concurrently with coursework in the CSM Space Resources program, specifically for the Space Resources Project I & II classes. A team was established in the fall semester of 2021 and a Systems Engineering process was followed to brainstorm initial concepts, determine objectives, flow down top-level requirements, and identify areas for which the project could best further the understanding of the overall system through targeted detailed design and design evaluation testing. This report summarizes the overall project, as well as specific work completed in the spring semester of 2022. PRISM-HOUSE is a lunar habitat system that is deployed on the lunar surface robotically and supports safe, long-term human occupancy while maximizing the use of in-situ resources and minimizing the mass of supplies and equipment that must be delivered from Earth. In this report, the team provides an overview and description of the objectives, the system, and how the current design was selected from various alternatives, as well as the resulting products of systems engineering tasks such as product and specification trees and flow-down requirements. A review of current risks and planned mitigation are reviewed. Four key PRISM-HOUSE systems are explored: the inflatable Habitat, External Structures & Environmental Protection (ESEP), Human Interior Goods (HIG), and ECLSS & Remote Outfitting (E&RO); for each, the team provides a detailed system description and an overview of analyses performed supporting final design, followed by a review of each Design Evaluation Test (DET) performed and resulting conclusions. The report closes with a suggestion of next steps.

Peter Corwin↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Top 10 Questions for Active Debris Removal

This slide presentation reviews the requirement and issues around removal of debris from the earth orbital environment. The 10 questions discussed are: 1. Which region (LEO/MEO/GEO) has the fastest projected growth rate and the highest collision activities? 2. Can the commonly-adopted mitigation measures stabilize the future environment? 3. What are the objectives of active debris removal (ADR)? 4. How can effective ADR target selection criteria to stabilize the future LEO environment be defined? 5. What are the keys to remediate the future LEO environment? 6. What is the timeframe for ADR implementation? 7. What is the effect of practical/operational constraints? 8. What are the collision probabilities and masses of the current objects? 9. What are the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers? 10. What is the next step?

Liou, J. -C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Evolvable Approach to Launch Vehicles for Exploration

This paper presents ideas that may be used individually or in combination to mitigate high costs for separate developments of new crew and heavy-lift cargo launch vehicles, while providing the foundation for a highly reliable and evolvable approach to exploration. Consideration is given to reclassification of cargo for launch purposes into high value versus low value categories, rather than the presently-defined crew versus cargo categories. Objectives for the reclassification are to reduce the gap between payload mass requirements for crew and cargo payloads to better allow closure on a single moderately-sized common core vehicle to reduce development cost, achieve an economical balance between launch frequency and payload mass, and to improve total mission reliability and safety, as compared a light-weight crew vehicle and heavy cargo lift approach. Concepts to reduce design and flight qualification costs for a common core vehicle with derivatives are presented. Appropriate types and mass of cargo for each class of vehicle are identified. Utilization of existing infrastructure and flight hardware is considered to reduce costs and build on proven capabilities. The approach enables low-risk incorporation of international and commercial launch of relatively low-cost, easily replaceable assets as a means to evolve toward longer-duration and more distant missions. Benefits are identified for ground idrastructure, personnel, training, logistics, spares, and system evolution. Technology needs are compared with needs for other aspects of exploration. Technology development phasing, demonstration, and reliability growth opportunities are considered. Flexibility to adapt to future technologies such as advanced in-space propulsion is contrasted with an approach of sizing the cargo launch vehicle based on today's in-space propellants.

Cheuvront, David L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Reliability↗

NASA NTRS2021

Quantifying the Impacts of PM2.5 Constituents and Relative Humidity on Visibility Impairment in a Suburban Area of Eastern Asia Using Long-Term In-Situ Measurements.

The deterioration of visibility due to air pollutants and relative humidity has been a serious environmental problem in eastern Asia. In most previous studies, chemical compositions of atmospheric particles were provided using filter-based offline analyses, which were unable to provide long-term and in-situ measurements that resolve sufficient temporal variations of air pollution and meteorology, hindering the resolution of the relationship between air quality and visibility. Here, we present a year-long continuously measured data from a comprehensive suite of online instruments to investigate diurnal and seasonal impacts of the aerosol chemical compositions in PM2.5 on visibility seasonally and diurnally. The measured dry aerosol extinction at λ = 550 nm reached a closure with that predicted by aerosol compositions within 12%. However, the hygroscopic growth of particles under ambient RH could enhance the aerosol extinction by a factor of 2 – 6, matching the perceptive visibility of the public. Particulate ammonium nitrate was most sensitive to reducing visibility, while ammonium sulfate contributed the most to the light extinction. In spring and winter, the monsoon and stagnant air masses reduced the visibility and increased PM2.5 (> 35 μg m-3).The moisture was found to substantially enhance the light extinction under RH = 60 – 90%,reducing visibility by approximately 15 km, largely attributed to hygroscopic inorganic salts.This study serves as a metric to highlight the need to consider the influence of RH, and aqueous reactions in producing secondary inorganic aerosols on atmospheric visibility, underpinning the more accurate mitigation strategies of air pollution.

visibility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research and Experiment-2 (ASPIRE2) Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation

Introduction: The Advanced Supersonic Para-chute Inflation Research Experiment-2 (ASPIRE2) program is a sounding rocket flight test to be conducted at Wallops Island, VA in early 2025. This program is a risk mitigation exercise for the Mars Sample Retrieval Lander (MSRL) program and builds upon the success of the 2017 & 2018 ASPIRE program, [1,2]. While the ASPIRE program certified the strengthened 21.5 m diameter disk-gap-band (DGB) deployed at Mach 1.7, ASPIRE2 will certify a 24 m diameter DGB deployed at Mach 2.1. The need to certify this increased parachute performance is driven the increased lander mass for MSRL; over 50% increase in comparison to M2020. Modeling: Like its predecessor, ASPIRE2 is developing a multi-body flight dynamics simulation to predict parachute dynamics and aide in designing the flight test that will target Mars-relevant flight conditions, as shown in Figure 1. This work de-scribes the parachute modeling, flight mechanics simulations (from payload separation to splash-down), and design trades used to prepare for the 2025 ASPIRE2 flight. Discussed herein are comparisons between ASPIRE and ASPIRE2, noting key differences in the parachute modeling and vehicle configuration. A study on the attitude control system performance impacts with respect to payload section design will also be presented. This work will quantify the pre-flight parachute performance in the presence of uncertainties, such as those associated with the separation from the sounding rocket, atmosphere, the parachute system, and vehicle mass. The pre-flight predictions will include Monte Carlo analyses, powered by the flight mechanics simulations to show the ASPIRE2 vehicle performance in meeting program requirements on parachute deployment conditions (Mach & dynamic pressure), parachute loads, vehicle attitude at key milestones, and the vehicle splashdown conditions.

Entry Descent and Landing↗

NASA NTRS2015

Significant Attenuation of Lightly Damped Resonances Using Particle Dampers

When equipment designs must perform in a broad band vibration environment it can be difficult to avoid resonances that affect life and performance. This is especially true when an organization seeks to employ an asset from a heritage design in a new, more demanding vibration environment. Particle dampers may be used to provide significant attenuation of lightly damped resonances to assist with such a deployment of assets by including only a very minor set of modifications. This solution may be easier to implement than more traditional attenuation schemes. Furthermore, the cost in additional weight to the equipment can be very small. Complexity may also be kept to a minimum, because the particle dampers do not require tuning. Attenuating the vibratory response with particle dampers may therefore be simpler (in a set it and forget it kind of way) than tuned mass dampers. The paper will illustrate the use of an "equivalent resonance test jig" that can assist designers in verifying the potential resonance attenuation that may be available to them during the early trade stages of the design. An approach is suggested for transforming observed attenuation in the jig to estimated performance in the actual service design. KEY WORDS: Particle Damper, Performance in Vibration Environment, Damping, Resonance, Attenuation, Mitigation of Vibration Response, Response Estimate, Response Verification.

Smith, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Determination of Titan Gravity Field from Doppler Tracking of the Cassini Spacecraft

In its tour of the Saturnian system, the spacecraft Cassini is carrying out measurements of the gravity field of Titan, whose knowledge is crucial for constraining the internal structure of the satellite. In the five flybys devoted to gravity science, the spacecraft is tracked in X (8.4 GHz) and Ka band (32.5 GHz) from the antennas of NASA's Deep Space Network. The use of a dual frequency downlink is used to mitigate the effects of interplanetary plasma, the largest noise source affecting Doppler measurements. Variations in the wet path delay are effectively compensated by means of advanced water vapor radiometers placed close to the ground antennas. The first three flybys occurred on February 27, 2006, December 28, 2006, and June 29, 2007. Two additional flybys are planned in July 2008 and May 2010. This paper presents the estimation of the mass and quadrupole field of Titan from the first two flybys, carried out by the Cassini Radio Science Team using a short arc orbit determination. The data from the two flybys are first independently fit using a dynamical model of the spacecraft and the bodies of the Saturnian system, and then combined in a multi-arc solution. Under the assumption that the higher degree harmonics are negligible, the estimated values of the gravity parameters from the combined, multi-arc solution are GM = 8978.1337 +/- 0.0025 km(exp 3) / s(exp 2), J (sub 2) = (2.7221 +/- 0.0185) 10 (exp -5) and C (sub 22) = (1.1159 +/- 0.0040) 10 (exp -5) The excellent agreement (within 1.7 sigma) of the results from the two flybys further increases the confidence in the solution and provides an a posteriori validation of the dynamical model.

Iess, L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Time Course of Atrophic Remodeling: Effects of Exercise on Cardiac Morpology and Function

Early and consistent evaluation of cardiac morphology and function throughout an atrophic stimulus is critically important for the design and optimization of interventions. Exercise training is one intervention that has been shown to confer favorable improvements in LV mass and function during unloading. However, the format and intensity of exercise required to induce optimal cardiac improvements has not been investigated. PURPOSE: This randomized, controlled trial was designed to 1) comprehensively characterize the time course of unloading-induced morpho-functional remodeling, and 2) examine the effects of high intensity exercise training on cardiac structural and functional parameters during unloading. METHODS: Twenty six subjects completed 70 days of head down tilt bed rest (HDBR): 17 were randomized to exercise training (ExBR) and 9 remained sedentary. Exercise consisted of integrated high intensity, continuous, and resistance exercise. We assessed cardiac morphology (left ventricular mass; LVM) and function (speckle-tracking assessment of longitudinal, radial, and circumferential strain and twist) before (BR-2), during (BR7,21,31,70), and following (BR+0, +3) HDBR. Cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max) was evaluated before (BR- 3), during (BR4,25,46,68) and following (BR+0) HDBR. RESULTS: Sedentary HDBR resulted in a progressive decline in LVM, longitudinal, radial, and circumferential strain, and an increase in twist. ExBR mitigated decreases in LVM and function. Change in twist was significantly related to change in VO2max (R=0.68, p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Alterations in cardiac morphology and function begin early during unloading. High-intensity exercise attenuates atrophic morphological and functional remodeling.

Scott, J. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk Under Off-nominal Conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Contemporary Hazard of Cometary Impacts

Cosmic impacts pose a continuing hazard of loss of human life and property. Significant contemporary risk is associated with projectiles in the energy range from about 10 megatons of TNT up to the size of the K/T impactor. The lower threshold for damage is defined by the atmosphere of the Earth, which effectively shields us From smaller projectiles. Up to energies of about a gigaton of TNT, the effects are local or regional for impacts on the land, or coastal for ocean impacts, which can generate large tsunamis. A greater risk is associated with still larger impacts, which are capable of causing global ecological catastrophe, possibly leading to mass mortality From starvation and epidemics. If such a impact took place anywhere on Earth during our lifetimes, we would each be in danger, independent of where the projectile struck. Statistical estimates indicate that each human on this planet runs a risk of roughly 1 in 20,000 of dying from this cause. Prudence suggests that we should be concerned about such impacts and seek ways of avoiding them or mitigating their consequences. The primary objective of any program to deal with this hazard is to determine whether or not such a near-term impact is likely. The best approach for the asteroidal component is a comprehensive telescopic survey, which can discover all Earth-crossing asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter and provide decades of warning in which to plan ways to deflect or destroy a threatening object. Long-period comets, however, pose a much greater challenge, since they cannot be discovered long in advance of a possible impact, their orbits are harder to predict, and they are significantly more difficult to deflect or destroy.

Morrison, David↗