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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Statistical Practice and Research at NASA

The discipline of statistics has gained recognition within NASA by spurring innovation and efficiency, and it has demonstrated significant impact and value. In aerospace research and development, it accelerates learning, maximizes knowledge, ensures strategic resource investment, and informs rigorous data-driven decisions. In practice, it requires immersive multidisciplinary collaboration to develop solution strategies that integrate statistical methods with subject-matter expertise to address challenging research objectives. This presentation provides an overview of statistical case studies in aeronautics, space exploration, and atmospheric science, and it highlights statistical research motivated by NASA’s challenging applications.

Peter A. Parker↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification and prediction of solidification textures under additive manufacturing conditions

Crystallographic textures are a major determinant of the macroscale anisotropic properties of polycrystalline metallic alloys produced in a wide range of additive manufacturing (AM) processes. Here, we introduce a statistical method that can accurately quantify the degree of orientational order of textures despite the large random fluctuations in the orientation of individual grains inherent in AM processes. The method, demonstrated for laser and resolidification of AlSi thin films, extends Z-scoring to a dynamical regime to assess the statistical significance of observed textures compared to randomly generated ones at different stages of solidification. We further show that, combined with phase-field modeling, this method can be used to infer fundamental anisotropic properties of the solid-liquid interface that are essential for texture prediction, and are compared here to the results of atomistic simulations. In addition, phase-field modeling reveals that, even at rapid AM solidification rates, the observed 〈110〉-dominated textures in the AlSi thin films are controlled predominantly by the anisotropy of the interface free-energy and sheds light on the physical mechanism of grain competition. These results significantly enhance both the existing tools for the quantification and prediction of AM crystallographic textures and our basic understanding of their formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Predictions of Neutron-rich Lanthanide Properties as a Probe of r -process Dynamics

Lanthanide element signatures are key to understanding many astrophysical observables, from merger kilonova light curves to stellar and solar abundances. To learn about the lanthanide element synthesis that enriched our solar system, we apply the statistical method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to examine the nuclear masses capable of forming the r-process rare-earth abundance peak. We describe the physical constraints we implement with this statistical approach and demonstrate the use of the parallel chains method to explore the multidimensional parameter space. We apply our procedure to three moderately neutron-rich astrophysical outflows with distinct types of r-process dynamics. We show that the mass solutions found are dependent on outflow conditions and are related to the r-process path. We describe in detail the mechanism behind peak formation in each case. We then compare our mass predictions for neutron-rich neodymium and samarium isotopes to the latest experimental data from the CPT at CARIBU. Here, we find our mass predictions given outflows that undergo an extended (n,γ)⇌(γ,n) equilibrium to be those most compatible with both observational solar abundances and neutron-rich mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Battery Lifetime Modeling at NREL [Slides]

Battery lifetime models are used to extrapolate data from accelerated aging tests to simulate degradation in real-world applications such as electric vehicles and battery energy storage systems. Methods developed at NREL utilize both expert domain-knowledge and machine-learning to identify models, using statistical methods such as cross-validation and bootstrap resampling to interrogate model performance and quantify uncertainty. These models can be utilized in systems level simulations to predict battery performance or technoeconomic models to estimate the lifetime cost of battery systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Neural networks analysis on SSME vibration simulation data

The neural networks method is applied to investigate the feasibility in detecting anomalies in turbopump vibration of SSME to supplement the statistical method utilized in the prototype system. The investigation of neural networks analysis is conducted using SSME vibration data from a NASA developed numerical simulator. The limited application of neural networks to the HPFTP has also shown the effectiveness in diagnosing the anomalies of turbopump vibrations.

Lo, Ching F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
DOE OSTI2019

Detected Changes in Precipitation Extremes at Their Native Scales Derived from In Situ Measurements

Abstract The gridding of daily accumulated precipitation—especially extremes—from ground-based station observations is problematic due to the fractal nature of precipitation, and therefore estimates of long period return values and their changes based on such gridded daily datasets are generally underestimated. In this paper, we characterize high-resolution changes in observed extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2017 for the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on in situ measurements only. Our analysis utilizes spatial statistical methods that allow us to derive gridded estimates that do not smooth extreme daily measurements and are consistent with statistics from the original station data while increasing the resulting signal-to-noise ratio. Furthermore, we use a robust statistical technique to identify significant pointwise changes in the climatology of extreme precipitation while carefully controlling the rate of false positives. We present and discuss seasonal changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation: the largest and most spatially coherent pointwise changes are in fall (SON), with approximately 33% of CONUS exhibiting significant changes (in an absolute sense). Other seasons display very few meaningful pointwise changes (in either a relative or absolute sense), illustrating the difficulty in detecting pointwise changes in extreme precipitation based on in situ measurements. While our main result involves seasonal changes, we also present and discuss annual changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation. In this paper we only seek to detect changes over time and leave attribution of the underlying causes of these changes for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Evidence of an infrared luminosity indicator for galaxies

To elucidate the nature of infrared-luminous galaxies discovered with the IRAS satellite, the optical and infrared luminosities of 1161 Markarian galaxies and 2146 'normal' galaxies from the CfA redshift survey are compared. Survival analysis statistical methods that take upper limits fully into account are used. It is found that L(IR)/L(B) is statistically correlated with L(60) in both samples, though they differ in the distribution at low luminosities. The derived correlation shows that L(IR)/L(B) provides an indicator for L(60). Since galaxies selected in unbiased IRAS surveys will have higher L(IR)/L(B) than optically selected galaxies, they are therefore also selected for high L(60).

Feigelson, Eric D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Multi-Satellite Estimates of Land-Surface Properties for Determination of Energy and Water Budgets

Using the WETNET database, existing methods for the estimation of surface wetness from SSM/I data have been assessed and further developed. A physical-statistical method for optimal estimation of daily surface heat flux and Bowen ratio on the mesoscale has been developed and tested. This method is based on observations of daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth from operational ravansonde and daytime land-surface temperature amplitude from Geostationary Operational Environmental (GOES) satellites. The mesoscale patterns of these heat fluxes have been compared with an AVHRR-based vegetation index and surface wetness (separately estimated from SSM/I and in situ observations). Cases of the 1988 Midwest drought and a surface/atmosphere moisture gradient (dry-line) in the southern Plains were studied. The analyses revealed significant variations in sensible heat flux (S(sub 0), and Bowen ratio, B(sub 0)) associated with vegetation cover and antecedent precipitation. Relationships for surface heat flux (and Bowen ratio) from antecedent precipitation and vegetation index have been developed and compared to other findings. Results from this project are reported in the following reviewed literature.

Menzel, W. Paul↗
NASA NTRS1999

Predicting Slag Generation in Sub-Scale Test Motors Using a Neural Network

Generation of slag (aluminum oxide) is an important issue for the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Thiokol performed testing to quantify the relationship between raw material variations and slag generation in solid propellants by testing sub-scale motors cast with propellant containing various combinations of aluminum fuel and ammonium perchlorate (AP) oxidizer particle sizes. The test data were analyzed using statistical methods and an artificial neural network. This paper primarily addresses the neural network results with some comparisons to the statistical results. The neural network showed that the particle sizes of both the aluminum and unground AP have a measurable effect on slag generation. The neural network analysis showed that aluminum particle size is the dominant driver in slag generation, about 40% more influential than AP. The network predictions of the amount of slag produced during firing of sub-scale motors were 16% better than the predictions of a statistically derived empirical equation. Another neural network successfully characterized the slag generated during full-scale motor tests. The success is attributable to the ability of neural networks to characterize multiple complex factors including interactions that affect slag generation.

Wiesenberg, Brent↗
NASA NTRS2005

Cycom 977-2 Composite Material: Impact Test Results (workshop presentation)

Contents include the following: Ambient (13A) tests of Cycom 977-2 impact characteristics by the Brucenton and statistical method at MSFC and WSTF. Repeat (13A) tests of tested Cycom from phase I at MSFC to expended testing statistical database. Conduct high-pressure tests (13B) in liquid oxygen (LOX) and GOX at MSFC and WSTF to determine Cycom reaction characteristics and batch effect. Conduct expended ambient (13A) LOX test at MSFC and high-pressure (13B) testing to determine pressure effects in LOX. Expend 13B GOX database.

Engle, Carl↗
DOE OSTI2019

Combining simulations and data with deep learning and uncertainty quantification for advanced energy modeling

A novel and modern framework for energy modeling is developed in this paper with a focus on nuclear energy modeling and simulation. The framework combines multiphysics simulations and real data, with validation by uncertainty quantification tasks and facilitation by machine and deep learning methods. The hybrid framework is built on the basis of a wide range of physical models, real data, mathematical and statistical methods, and artificial intelligence techniques. The framework is demonstrated in different applications, including quantifying uncertainties in computer simulations, multiphysics coupling, analysis of variance using machine learning surrogate models, deep learning of time series phenomena, and propagating parametric uncertainties of nuclear data. The applications demonstrated are oriented to nuclear engineering simulations, even though majority of the methods are applicable to other energy sources (eg, renewable). Efficient utilization of this framework is expected to yield a much better understanding of the physical phenomena analyzed as well as an improvement in the performance of the energy design/model under construction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

A general scientific information system to support the study of climate-related data

The development and use of NASA's Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) are discussed. The PCDS is used as a focal point for managing and providing access to a large collection of actively used data for the Earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. The PCDS provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, and access methods for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Scientific users can preview the data sets using graphical and statistical methods. The system has evolved from its original purpose as a climate data base management system in response to a national climate program, into an extensive package of capabilities to support many types of data sets from both spaceborne and surface based measurements with flexible data selection and analysis functions.

Treinish, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Understanding the relation between wind- and pressure-driven sea level variability

Sea surface adjustment to combined wind and pressure forcing is examined using numerical solutions to the shallow water equations. The experiments use coastal geometry and bottom topography representative of the North Atlantic and are forced by realistic barometric pressure and wind stress fields. The repsonse to pressure is essentially static or close to the inverted barometer solution at periods longer than a few days and dominates the sea level variability, with wind-driven sea level signals being relatively small. With regard to the dynamic signals, wind-driven fluctuations dominate at long periods, as expected from quasi-geostrophic theory. Pressure becomes more important than wind stress as a source of dynamic signals only at periods shorter than approximately three days. Wind- and pressure-driven sea level fluctuations are anticorrelated over most regions. Hence, regressions of sea level on barometric pressure yield coefficients generally smaller than expected for the inverted barometer response known to be the case in the model. In the regions of significant wind-pressure correlation effects, to infer the correct pressure reponse using statistical methods, input fields must include winds as well as pressure. Because of the nonlocal character of the wind response, multivariate statistical models with local wind driving as input are not very successful. Inclusion of nonlocal wind variability over extensive regions is necessary to extract the correct pressure response. Implications of these results to the interpretation of sea level observations are discussed.

Ponte, Rui M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

SEE Rate Estimation: Model Complexity and Data Requirements

Statistical Methods outlined in [Ladbury, TNS20071 can be generalized for Monte Carlo Rate Calculation Methods Two Monte Carlo Approaches: a) Rate based on vendor-supplied (or reverse-engineered) model SEE testing and statistical analysis performed to validate model; b) Rate calculated based on model fit to SEE data Statistical analysis very similar to case for CREME96. Information Theory allows simultaneous consideration of multiple models with different complexities: a) Model with lowest AIC usually has greatest predictive power; b) Model averaging using AIC weights may give better performance if several models have similar good performance; and c) Rates can be bounded for a given confidence level over multiple models, as well as over the parameter space of a model.

Ladbury, Ray↗
DOE OSTI2024

UNDERSTANDING THE SEMI-PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES IN STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY USED TO SET DESIGN RELIABILITY TARGETS FOR GRAPHITE COMPONENTS USING ASME BPVC METHODS

Graphite is a quasi-brittle material, resulting in random variability in tensile strength distributions. To account for the random variability in strength, HHA-3000 of the ASME BPVC provides two semi-probabilistic methods for qualifying nuclear graphite components in the design stage, the simplified and full assessments. The full and simplified assessments apply statistical methods to engineering-based design problems. This is often referred to as reliability-based design. Reliability-based design (RBD) is a method to develop reliable designs by accounting for uncertainties and result in small chances of failure when also considering safety factors. RBDs provide reliability targets using semi-probabilistic approaches. RBD is implemented in ASME BPVC HHA-3000 for nuclear graphite components, but is not specific to that application. There has been much confusion around the methods implemented in ASME BPVC HHA-3000 for qualifying nuclear graphite components. To address the confusion, this paper takes a hierarchical approach. First, the general RBD framework is presented. Then, the semi-probabilistic methods and the underlying assumptions implemented in the assessments are presented. The semi-probabilistic methods are separated from the engineering modifications that have been made to the assessments. After building the framework and underlying assumptions, the specific methods in the full and simplified assessments are explained in three steps: inputs, methods, outputs. The methods are applied to an H-451 reflector block. Tensile strength properties for other graphite grades are provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Reliability approach to rotating-component design

A probabilistic methodology for designing rotating mechanical components using reliability to relate stress to strength is explained. The experimental test machines and data obtained for steel to verify this methodology are described. A sample mechanical rotating component design problem is solved by comparing a deterministic design method with the new design-by reliability approach. The new method shows that a smaller size and weight can be obtained for specified rotating shaft life and reliability, and uses the statistical distortion-energy theory with statistical fatigue diagrams for optimum shaft design. Statistical methods are presented for (1) determining strength distributions for steel experimentally, (2) determining a failure theory for stress variations in a rotating shaft subjected to reversed bending and steady torque, and (3) relating strength to stress by reliability.

Kececioglu, D. B.↗