Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Minimum risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

NASA's Space Launch System Transitions From Design To Production

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) successfully completed its Critical Design Review (CDR) in 2015, a major milestone on the journey to an unprecedented era of exploration for humanity. CDR formally marked the program's transition from design to production phase just four years after the program's inception and the first such milestone for a human launch vehicle in 40 years. While challenges typical of a complex development program lie ahead, CDR evaluators concluded that the design is technically and programmatically sound and ready to press forward to Design Certification Review (DCR) and readiness for launch of Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) in the 2018 timeframe. SLS is prudently based on existing propulsion systems, infrastructure and knowledge with a clear, evolutionary path as required by mission needs. In its initial configuration, designated Block 1, SLS will a minimum of 70 metric tons (t) (154,324 pounds) of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO). It will evolve to a 130 t (286,601 pound) payload capacity by upgrading its engines, boosters, and upper stage, dramatically increasing the mass and volume of human and robotic exploration while decreasing mission risk, increasing safety, and simplifying ground and mission operations. CDR was the central programmatic accomplishment among many technical accomplishments that will be described in this paper. The government/industry SLS team successfully test-fired a flight-like five-segment solid rocket motor, as well as seven hotfire development tests of the RS-25 core stage engine. The majority of the major test article and flight barrels, rings, and domes for the core stage liquid oxygen, liquid hydrogen, engine section, intertank, and forward skirt were manufactured at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, Louisiana. Renovations to the B-2 test stand for stage green run testing were completed at NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC), near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Core stage test stands are reaching completion at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The modified Pegasus barge for core stage transportation from manufacturing to testing and launch sites was delivered to SSC. The Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System test article was also completed. This paper will discuss these and other technical and programmatic successes and challenges over the past year and provide a preview of work ahead before the first flight of this new capability.

Askins, Bruce R.↗

Evaluation of a Shuttle Derived Vehicle (SDV) for Cargo Transportation

In this new era of space exploration, a host of launch vehicles are being examined for possible use in transporting cargo and crew to low Earth orbit and beyond. Launch vehicles derived from the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), known as Shuttle Derived Vehicles (SDVs), are prime candidates for heavy-lift duty because of their potential to minimize non-recurring costs and because the Shuttle can leverage off proven high-performance flight systems with established ground and flight support. To determine the merits of SDVs, a detailed evaluation was performed. This evaluation included a trade study and risk assessment of options based on performance, safety reliability, cost, operations, and evolution. The purpose of this paper is to explain the approach, processes, and tools used to evaluate launch vehicles for heavy lift cargo transportation. The process included defining the trade space, characterizing the concepts, analyzing the systems, and scoring the options. The process also included a review by subject experts from NASA and industry to compare past and recent study data and assess the risks. A set of technical performance measures (TPMs) was generated based on the study requirements and constraints. Tools such as INTROS and POST were used to calculate performance, FIRST was used for prediction of reliability, and other software packages, both commercial and NASA-owned, were applied to study the trade space. By following a clear process and using the right tools a thorough assessment was performed. An SDV can be classified as either a side-mount vehicle (SMV) or an in-line vehicle OLV). An SMV is a Space Shuttle where the Orbiter is replaced by a cargo carrier. An ILV is comprised of a modified Shuttle External Tank (ET) with engines mounted to the bottom and cargo mounted atop. For both families of vehicles, Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs) are attached to the ET. The first derivate of Shuttle is defined as the vehicle with minimum changes necessary to transform the Space Shuttle into an SDV. Deltas from the first derivate were also formulated to study more SDV options. Examples of deltas include replacing the SRBs with larger and/or more SRBs, adding an upper stage, increasing the size of the ET, changing the engines, and modifying the elements. Challenges for SDV range from tailoring infrastructure to meeting the exploration schedule. Although SDV is based on the Space Shuttle, it still includes development risk for designing and building a Cargo Carrier. There are also performance challenges in that Shuttle is not optimized for cargo-only missions, but it is a robust system built on reusability. Balancing the strengths and weaknesses of the Shuttle to meet Lunar and Mars mission objectives provides the framework for an informative trade study. SDV was carefully analyzed and the results of the study provide invaluable data for use in the new exploration initiative.

Roman, Jose M.↗

A Large Ensemble Global Dataset for Climate Impact Assessments

We present a self-consistent, large ensemble, high-resolution global dataset of long-term future climate, which accounts for the uncertainty in climate system response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and in geographical patterns of climate change. The dataset is developed by applying an integrated spatial disaggregation (SD) - bias-correction (BC) method to climate projections from the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Four emission scenarios are considered that represent energy and environmental policies and commitments of potential future pathways, namely, Reference, Paris Forever, Paris 2 °C and Paris 1.5 °C. The dataset contains nine key meteorological variables on a monthly scale from 2021 to 2100 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5°, including precipitation, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), near-surface wind speed, shortwave and longwave radiation, specific humidity, and relative humidity. We demonstrate the dataset’s ability to represent climate-change responses across various regions of the globe. This dataset can be used to support regional-scale climate-related impact assessments of risk across different applications that include hydropower, water resources, ecosystem, agriculture, and sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bisphosphonate as a Countermeasure to Space Flight-Induced Bone Loss

The purpose of this research is to determine whether anti-resorptive pharmaceuticals such as bisphosphonates, in conjunction with the routine in-flight exercise program, will protect ISS crewmembers from the regional decreases in bone mineral density and bone strength and the increased renal stone risk documented on previous long-duration space flights [1-3]. Losses averaged ~ 1 to 2 percent per month in such regions as the lumbar spine and hip. Although losses showed significant heterogeneity among individuals and between bones within a given subject, space flight-induced bone loss was a consistent finding. More than 90 percent of astronauts and cosmonauts on long-duration flights (average 171 days) aboard Mir and the ISS, had a minimum 5 percent loss in at least one skeletal site, 40 percent of them had a 10 percent or greater loss in at least one skeletal site, and 22 percent of the Mir cosmonauts experienced a 15 to 20 percent loss in at least one site. These losses occurred even though the crewmembers performed time-consuming in-flight exercise regimens. Moreover, a recent study of 16 ISS astronauts using quantitative computed tomography (QCT) demonstrated trabecular bone losses from the hip averaging 2.3 percent per month [4]. These losses were accompanied by significant losses in hip bone strength that may not be recovered quickly [5]. This rapid loss of bone mass results from a combination of increased and uncoupled remodeling, as demonstrated by increased resorption with little or no change in bone formation markers [6-7]. This elevated remodeling rate likely affects the cortical and trabecular architecture and may lead to irreversible changes. In addition to bone loss, the resulting hypercalciuria increases renal stone risk. Therefore, it is logical to attempt to attenuate this increased remodeling with anti-resorption drugs such as bisphosphonates. Success with alendronate was demonstrated in a bed rest study [8]. This work has been extended to space flight and two dosing regimens: 1) an oral dose of 70 mg of alendronate taken weekly during flight or 2) a single intravenous (IV) dose of 4 mg of zoledronic acid given several weeks before flight. Currently the study is focusing on the oral option because of NASA s safety concerns with the IV-administered drug. The protocol requests 10 male or female crewmembers on ISS flights of 90 days or longer. Controls are 16 previous ISS crewmembers with QCT scans of the hip performed by these same investigators. The primary outcome measure for this study is hip trabecular bone mineral density measured by QCT, but other measures of bone mass are performed including peripheral QCT (pQCT) and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Serum and urinary bone markers and renal stone risk measured before, during, and after flight are included. Postflight data are currently being collected from 2 ISS crewmembers. Two additional crewmembers will return this spring after ~6-month missions. To date no untoward effects have been encountered.

Spector, Elisabeth↗

Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) metabolites predominant in human plasma following escalating oral micro-dosing with [ 14 C]-BaP

Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is formed by incomplete combustion of organic materials (petroleum, coal, tobacco, etc.). BaP is designated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as a group 1 known human carcinogen; a classification supported by numerous studies in preclinical models and epidemiology studies of exposed populations. Risk assessment relies on toxicokinetic and cancer studies in rodents at doses 5–6 orders of magnitude greater than average human uptake. Using a dose–response design at environmentally relevant concentrations, this study follows uptake, metabolism, and elimination of [ 14 C]-BaP in human plasma by employing UPLC - accelerator mass spectrometry (UPLC-AMS). Volunteers were administered 25, 50, 100, and 250 ng (2.7–27 nCi) of [ 14 C]-BaP (with interceding minimum 3-week washout periods) with quantification of parent [ 14 C]-BaP and metabolites in plasma measured over 48 h. [ 14 C]-BaP median T max was 30 min with C max and area under the curve (AUC) approximating dose-dependency. Marked inter-individual variability in plasma pharmacokinetics following a 250 ng dose was seen with 7 volunteers as measured by the C max (8.99 ± 7.08 ng × mL -1 ) and AUC0-48hr (68.6 ± 64.0 fg × hr -1 × mL -1 ). Approximately 3–6% of the [ 14 C] recovered (AUC 0-48 hr ) was parent compound, demonstrating extensive metabolism following oral dosing. Metabolite profiles showed that, even at the earliest time-point (30 min), a substantial percentage of [ 14 C] in plasma was polar BaP metabolites. The best fit modeling approach identified non-compartmental apparent volume of distribution of BaP as significantly increasing as a function of dose (p = 0.004). Bay region tetrols and dihydrodiols predominated, suggesting not only was there extensive first pass metabolism but also potentially bioactivation. AMS enables the study of environmental carcinogens in humans with de minimus risk, allowing for important testing and validation of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models derived from animal data, risk assessment, and the interpretation of data from high-risk occupationally exposed populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek A Whitman↗

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek Whitman↗

Probability of Obstacle Collision for UAVs in Presence of Wind

For incorporation of unmanned aerial vehicles into the National Airspace, ensuring safety of the airspace including the vehicles, people, and property on the ground is of utmost importance. One of the safety-critical factors for unmanned aviation flights is the risk of deviating from a planned trajectory resulting in a variety of hazards, including potential loss of separation between vehicle and obstacles or unexpected battery energy consumption. Off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts can lead to unacceptable unexpected deviations from the flight trajectory. It is essential to accurately model such effects on the flight trajectory while computing safety thresholds such as minimum separation from surrounding obstacles, available battery resource to complete the mission or determining delay in the expected time of arrival of flights. In this paper, a tool is presented based on Gaussian Process Regression for wind representation over a pre-defined trajectory for fast, yet approximated, in-time evaluation of possible trajectory deviations caused by wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused by wind is further simulated utilizing a 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) UAV trajectory simulator comprising of a rotorcraft lumped-mass model with LQRI controller. Both steady-state wind and wind gust effects are investigated. The probability of collision with obstacle is computed and demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in the presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions and varying UAV airspeed is further demonstrated on experimental flights in the presence of wind measured by ground based weather service stations. The proposed approach would eventually benefit timely mitigation of current and future safety-critical events in autonomous systems by enabling risk-informed decision making.

Portia Banerjee↗

Handbook for Designing MMOD Protection

Spacecraft are subject to micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impact damage which have the potential to degrade performance, shorten the mission, or result in catastrophic loss of the vehicle. Specific MMOD protection requirements are established by NASA for each spacecraft early in the program/project life, to ensure the spacecraft meets desired safety and mission success goals. Both the design and operations influences spacecraft survivability in the MMOD environment, and NASA considers both in meeting MMOD protection requirements. The purpose of this handbook is to provide spacecraft designers and operations personnel with knowledge gained by NASA in implementing effective MMOD protection for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and various science spacecraft. It has been drawn from a number of previous publications [10-14], as well as new work. This handbook documents design and operational methods to reduce MMOD risk. In addition, this handbook describes tools and equations needed to design proper MMOD protection. It is a living report, in that it will be updated and re-released periodically in future with additional information. Providing effective and efficient MMOD protection is essential for ensuring safe and successful operations of spacecraft and satellites. A variety of shields protect crew modules, external pressurized vessels and critical equipment from MMOD on the International Space Station (ISS). Certain Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle systems are hardened from MMOD impact, and operational rules are established to reduce the risk from MMOD (i.e., flight attitudes are selected and late inspection of sensitive thermal protection surfaces are conducted to reduce MMOD impacts). Science spacecraft include specific provisions to meet MMOD protection requirements in their design (for example, Stardust & GLAST). Commercial satellites such as Iridium and Bigelow Aerospace Genesis spacecraft incorporate MMOD protection. The development of low-weight, effective MMOD protection has enabled these spacecraft missions to be performed successfully. This handbook describes these shielding techniques. For future exploration activities to the Moon and Mars, implementing high-performance MMOD shielding will be necessary to meet protection requirements with minimum mass penalty. A current area of technology development in MMOD shielding is the incorporation of sensors to detect and locate MMOD impact damage. Depending on the type of sensor the signals from the sensor can be processed to infer the location of the impact and the extent of damage. The objective of the sensors is to locate critical damage that would endanger the spacecraft or crew immediately or during reentry (such as an air leak from crew module or critical damage to thermal protection system of reentry vehicles). The information from the sensors can then be used with repair kits, patch kits, hatch closure or other appropriate remedial techniques to reduce MMOD risk.

Arnold, Jim↗

AXAF-I ghost ray study: On orbit case

The problem of baffles for control of singly reflected (and nonreflected) ghost rays is considered. The theory of baffle design for Wolter Type I grazing incidence optics is reviewed, and a set of sample baffle parameters is obtained subject to the assumptions of nominal mirror figures and perfect manufacture and alignment of baffles. It is found that baffles forward of the optics (in the thermal precollimator) and between the mirror elements (at the CAP) are sufficient to allow the simultaneous ghost image and vignetting requirements to be satisfied for HRMA shells P1H1, P3H3, and P4H4. However, these baffles are not sufficient for the innermost shell P6H6; at best the requirements are slightly violated and there is no margin for tolerances. The addition of a baffle interior to the P6 space at an axial station about one third of the way forward from the aft end of the paraboloid will allow the ghost ray and vignetting requirements to be met. The minimum ghost ray angles and the vignetting angles are sensitive functions of the baffle positions and radii; tolerances of considerably better than 1 mm will be required. The sensitivities are coupled and correlated; further investigations should be undertaken in order to obtain baffle parameters which, combined with likely achievable tolerances, will minimize the risk of the vignetting/ghost ray requirements not being met. The lightweight carbon-epoxy composite used for thermal baffles has insufficient X-ray opacity to be a suitable material for construction of the controlling X-ray baffles; further study is needed to determine an appropriate material and to investigate its thermal and mechanical implications.

Gaetz, T. J.↗

A Strategic Approach to Medical Care for Exploration Missions

Exploration missions will present significant new challenges to crew health, including effects of variable gravity environments, limited communication with Earth-based personnel for diagnosis and consultation for medical events, limited resupply, and limited ability for crew return. Providing health care capabilities for exploration class missions will require system trades be performed to identify a minimum set of requirements and crosscutting capabilities which can be used in design of exploration medical systems. Current and future medical data, information, and knowledge must be cataloged and put in formats that facilitate querying and analysis. These data may then be used to inform the medical research and development program through analysis of risk trade studies between medical care capabilities and system constraints such as mass, power, volume, and training. These studies will be used to define a Medical Concept of Operations to facilitate stakeholder discussions on expected medical capability for exploration missions. Medical Capability as a quantifiable variable is proposed as a surrogate risk metric and explored for trade space analysis that can improve communication between the medical and engineering approaches to mission design. The resulting medical system approach selected will inform NASA mission architecture, vehicle, and subsystem design for the next generation of spacecraft.

Antonsen, E.↗

A Strategic Approach to Medical Care for Exploration Missions

Exploration missions will present significant new challenges to crew health, including effects of variable gravity environments, limited communication with Earth-based personnel for diagnosis and consultation for medical events, limited resupply, and limited ability for crew return. Providing health care capabilities for exploration class missions will require system trades be performed to identify a minimum set of requirements and crosscutting capabilities, which can be used in design of exploration medical systems. Medical data, information, and knowledge collected during current space missions must be catalogued and put in formats that facilitate querying and analysis. These data are used to inform the medical research and development program through analysis of risk trade studies between medical care capabilities and system constraints such as mass, power, volume, and training. Medical capability as a quantifiable variable is proposed as a surrogate risk metric and explored for trade space analysis that can improve communication between the medical and engineering approaches to mission design. The resulting medical system design approach selected will inform NASA mission architecture, vehicle, and subsystem design for the next generation of spacecraft.

Canga, Michael A.↗

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗

Efficacy and Costs of Restoring Wetland Breeding Habitat for Imperiled Amphibians in the Southeastern U.S.

Herbaceous isolated wetlands in the North American Southeastern Coastal Plain are important breeding sites for many imperiled amphibians. However, most are degraded from alterations to historic fire disturbance and hydrologic regimes. Without fire, encroaching woody vegetation can transition wetlands to more terrestrial conditions and negatively impact amphibian breeding habitat, yet few studies have experimentally tested the efficacy, cost, or temporal requirement of current methods to restore herbaceous wetland vegetation. Here, we tested the interaction of manipulating wetland canopy and leaf litter/duff to promote herbaceous vegetation within one year (i.e., one breeding season) in degraded herbaceous wetlands in South Carolina. We assessed plant response via herbaceous cover, composition, and species similarity to the wetland seed bank and then related treatment performance to treatment cost. Removing trees combined with burning, disturbing, or removing duff significantly increased herbaceous cover and proportions of wetland plants and graminoids. Removing trees alone did not improve herbaceous cover compared to closed-canopy controls, and manipulating duff alone had limited positive effects on plant cover and composition. The most expensive yet effective treatment was Tree Removal-Duff Removal, while Tree Removal-Duff Disturbance was the most cost-effective. At a minimum, we recommend removing trees and burning to kickstart herbaceous recovery. Promisingly, comparisons of our data with previous seed bank studies from these same wetlands indicate there was limited seed bank attrition during 30 years of woody encroachment. Results from this study should aid practitioners in choosing wetland restoration techniques to better conserve at-risk species in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Green PCB Remediation from Sediment Systems (GPRSS) Project

An ongoing problem facing the global environment community including NASA centers is the removal and remediation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). PCBs were commonly used in a variety of materials including paints, caulking, and adhesives due to the advantageous physical and chemical properties that PCBs imparted to these various materials. Unfortunately, these properties have made the treatment of sites contaminated with these chemicals extremely difficult to deal with, due to their inherent chemical stability. The remediation of sediments contaminated with PCBs is especially difficult, primarily due to the risk of releasing the contaminant into the environment during the treatment process. Traditional treatment options involve the use of dredging and incineration of the contaminated soils/sediments, in which the chance of releasing the contaminants is greatly increased. The purpose of this project is to develop cleanup technology capable of remediating contaminated sediments in-situ, with minimum intrusion. This allows for the minimization of any potential contaminant release during the treatment process, providing a safer method for cleanup operations (as opposed to dredging/incineration) and still treating the basic problem of PCB contamination (as opposed to capping).

System↗

The CAESAR New Frontiers Comet Sample Return Mission

The Comet Astrobiology Exploration Sample Return (CAESAR) mission is one of two finalists selected by NASA for Phase A study in the New Frontiers program. CAESAR will acquire a minimum of 80 grams of material from the surface of comet 67P/Churuyumov-Gerasimenko and return it to Earth for laboratory analysis. CAESAR preserves much of the science of a cryogenic sample return by retaining volatiles in a dedicated reservoir securely separated from the solid sample. Comet 67P was selected based on its favorable orbital geometry and the risk reduction and scientific context provided by the ESA (European Space Agency)'s Rosetta mission. CAESAR's objectives are to understand the origins of the Solar System starting materials and how these components came together to form planets and give rise to life. We also seek to resolve the conflicting views of comet origins arising from the Stardust and Rosetta missions. While the greater than 1 micron solids returned by Stardust originated in the hot, inner solar nebula, measurements by Rosetta suggest 67P volatiles formed at cryogenic temperatures and remained unchanged for billions of years. This dichotomy provides the rationale for returning both solid and gaseous samples.

CAESAR New Frontiers↗

Evaluation of propellent tank insulation concepts for low-thrust chemical propulsion systems: Executive summary

Cryogenic propellant tank insulations or liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen low-thrust 2224N (500 lbf) propulsion systems (LTPS) were assessed. The insulation studied consisted of combinations of N2-purged foam and multilayer insulation (MLI) as well as He-purged MLI-only. Heat leak and payload performance predictions were made for three shuttle-launched LTPS designed for shuttle bay packaged payload densities of 56 kg cu/m (3.5 lbm/cu ft), 40 kg/cu m (2.5 lbm/cu ft) and 24 kg/cu m (1.5 lbm/cu ft). Foam/MLI insulations were found to increase LTPS payload delivery capability when compared with He-purged MLI-only. An additional benefit of foam/MLI was reduced operational complexity because orbiter cargo bay N2 purge gas could be used for MLI purging. Maximum payload mass benefit occurred when an enhanced convection, rather than natural convection, heat transfer was specified for the insulation purge enclosure. The enhanced convection environment allowed minimum insulation thickness to be used for the foam/MLI interface temperature selected to correspond to the moisture dew point in the N2 purge gas. Experimental verification of foam/MLI benefits was recommended. A conservative program cost estimate for testing a MLI-foam insulated tank was 2.1 million dollars. This cost could be reduced significantly without increasing program risk.

Kramer, T.↗

NASA Lewis Launch Collision Probability Model Developed and Analyzed

There are nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the earth. These objects encompass manned objects, active and decommissioned satellites, spent rocket bodies, and debris. They range from a few centimeters across to the size of the MIR space station. Anytime a new satellite is launched, the launch vehicle with its payload attached passes through an area of space in which these objects orbit. Although the population density of these objects is low, there always is a small but finite probability of collision between the launch vehicle and one or more of these space objects. Even though the probability of collision is very low, for some payloads even this small risk is unacceptable. To mitigate the small risk of collision associated with launching at an arbitrary time within the daily launch window, NASA performs a prelaunch mission assurance Collision Avoidance Analysis (or COLA). For the COLA of the Cassini spacecraft, the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted an in-house development and analysis of a model for launch collision probability. The model allows a minimum clearance criteria to be used with the COLA analysis to ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. If, for any given liftoff time, the nominal launch vehicle trajectory would pass a space object with less than the minimum required clearance, launch would not be attempted at that time. The model assumes that the nominal positions of the orbiting objects and of the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time, and therefore, that any tracked object that comes within close proximity of the launch vehicle can be identified. For any such pair, these nominal positions can be used to calculate a nominal miss distance. The actual miss distances may differ substantially from the nominal miss distance, due, in part, to the statistical uncertainty of the knowledge of the objects positions. The model further assumes that these position uncertainties can be described with position covariance matrices. With these, and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution for the probability of collision is obtained. This solution provides clear insights into how each of the independent parameters affects the probability of collision. It shows that for a given maximum probability of collision and prior knowledge of the objects position uncertainties and sizes, only knowledge of the nominal closest approach distance is required to make the launch/no launch decision. The model was completed and used for the mission assurance COLA analysis for the Cassini spacecraft, which was launched on a Titan IV/Centaur rocket on October 15, 1997. Although the model was specifically developed for the Cassini mission, it is clearly applicable for other launches as well. The effect of COLA closures on the launch window is shown. The bar represents the entire 140-min launch window on October 15, 1997; the blackened areas represent the loss of launch opportunities due to the potential for a collision with an orbiting object.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗