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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Data and Code for Understanding Generative AI Content with Embedding Models

This repository contains code for the experiments in the paper "Understanding Generative AI Content with Embedding Models". Constructing high-quality features is critical to any quantitative data analysis. While feature engineering was historically addressed by carefully hand-crafting data representations based on domain expertise, deep neural networks (DNNs) now offer a radically different approach. DNNs implicitly engineer features by transforming their input data into hidden feature vectors called embeddings. For embedding vectors produced by foundation models -- which are trained to be useful across many contexts -- we demonstrate that simple and well-studied dimensionality-reduction techniques such as Principal Component Analysis uncover inherent heterogeneity in input data concordant with human-understandable explanations. Of the many applications for this framework, we find empirical evidence that there is intrinsic separability between real samples and those generated by artificial intelligence (AI).

Vargas, Max [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Firm Synthesizer and Supply-chain Simulator (SynthFirm) v2.0

SynthFirm is a national-scale agent-based freight demand model which generates a complete synthetic population of firms in the U.S. and the business-to-business commodity flows between them. Using publicly available data sources as inputs, SynthFirm simulates detailed firm and fleet characteristics, commodity production and consumption, formation of supply chains, and selection of shipping modes, all of which are essential drivers of commodity flow at a disaggregate level. The SynthFirm 2.0 version includes national commercial vehicle fleet generation, international trade simulation and automized model validation pipeline, which allows seemless deployment across the nation and build a comprehensive freight inventories at national scale or for selected region.

Yang, Hung-Chia [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards Automated Reasoning Chains for Verification of LLM-Generated Scientific Code

With the rise of Large Language Model (LLM) generated code, including in domains like scientific computing, ensuring not only syntactical, but also mathematical correctness, has become a critical task. Traditional formal methods approaches often struggle with the ambiguity of floating-point code, and full symbolic execution is extremely costly and limited. We propose a chain-of-reasoning approach that iteratively lifts basic semantics from code into the SPIRAL system and then establishes numerical equivalency to the desired mathematical operation. Here, we leverage the ample mathematical knowledge already formalized in SPIRAL to enable the system to recognize not just different implementations of the same algorithm but fully separate approaches to solving the given problem. The chain establishes tight error bounds on the output of given code with respect to the true continuous solution it approximates, quantifying all sources of error. We demonstrate this approach by establishing the correctness of a pseudospectral solver for a simple 1-dimensional Poisson problem.

Oschatz, Quentin [Carnegie Mellon University,Pitts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Cross Section Library Generation using Reduced Order Models

Deterministic neutronics calculations rely on multigroup neutron cross section libraries, which consist of databases of tabulated values, used to calculate the neutron cross sections through multivariate linear interpolation. However, interpolation of the multidimensional cross section data becomes memory inefficient and time consuming as the number of tabulations increases, significantly slowing down the neutronics calculation, especially in the case of microscopic cross section libraries where every isotope (on the order of hundreds) has its own set of specific reactions and cross sections. In order to address this challenge, this work constructs efficient and robust reduced-order models (ROMs) of the multi-group cross sections to support the Griffin simulation of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The first part of the study investigates the linearity of the multigroup cross section data across isotopes, reaction types, and energy groups on pre-generated datasets for the purpose of dimensionality reduction. Secondly, a down-selection of ROM techniques is presented on representative classical machine learning (ML) techniques, including variants of linear regression, kernel-based methods, tree-based algorithms, and artificial neural networks. The selection criteria jointly consider the memory efficiency, predictive accuracy, prediction speed, and scalability in comparison to the multidimensional interpolation. Among all the ML techniques, deep neural networks (DNNs) have proven to be the best selection with sufficient accuracy, high robustness, good memory efficiency, great scalability, and superior flexibility. DNNs have been trained for all isotopes in this work and systematic Griffin testing is ongoing to ensure the feasibility of this ROM technique for predicting cross section and reducing memory requirements without a significant sacrifice in computational performance.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441 025–1700 000 km 2 ) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first field-data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of 251 015 km 2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128 671–373 359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs relatively well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Skeletal reaction models for methane combustion

A local-sensitivity-analysis technique is employed to generate new skeletal reaction models for methane combustion from the foundational fuel chemistry model (FFCM-1). Here, the sensitivities of the thermo-chemical variables with respect to the reaction rates are computed via the forced-optimally time dependent (f-OTD) methodology. In this methodology, the large sensitivity matrix containing all local sensitivities is modeled as a product of two low-rank time-dependent matrices. The evolution equations of these matrices are derived from the governing equations of the system. The modeled sensitivities are computed for the auto-ignition of methane at atmospheric and high pressures with different sets of initial temperatures, and equivalence ratios. These sensitivities are then analyzed to rank the most important (sensitive) species. A series of skeletal models with different number of species and levels of accuracy in reproducing the FFCM-1 results are suggested. The performances of the generated models are compared against FFCM-1 in predicting the ignition delay, the laminar flame speed, and the flame extinction. The results of this comparative assessment suggest the skeletal models with 24 and more species generate the FFCM-1 results with an excellent accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Diurnal and Annual Ethylene Generation from Solar-Driven Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards achieving net-negative carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Here, using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimental CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. We simulated diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature to determine gaseous product temperature sensitivity. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne/yr at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

Yap, Kyra M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystal structure prediction with host-guided inpainting generation and foundation potentials

Unconditional crystal structure generation with diffusion models faces challenges in identifying symmetric crystals as the unit cell size increases. Here, we present the crystal host-guided generation (CHGGen) framework to address this challenge through conditional generation using an inpainting method, which optimizes a fraction of atomic positions within a predefined and symmetrized host structure to improve the success rate for symmetric structure generation. By integrating inpainting structure generation with a foundation potential for structure optimization, we demonstrate the method on the ZnS–P 2 S 5 and Li–Si chemical systems, where the inpainting method generates a higher fraction of symmetric structures than unconditional generation. The practical significance of CHGGen extends to enabling the structural modification of crystal structures, particularly for systems with partial occupancy or intercalation chemistry. The inpainting method also allows for seamless integration with other generative models, providing a versatile framework for accelerating materials discovery.

Zhong, Peichen [University of California, Berkeley↗
DOE OSTI2024

A semantics-driven framework to enable demand flexibility control applications in real buildings

Decarbonising and digitalising the energy sector requires scalable and interoperable Demand Flexibility (DF) applications. Semantic models are promising technologies for achieving these goals, but existing studies focused on DF applications exhibit limitations. These include dependence on bespoke ontologies, lack of computational methods to generate semantic models, ineffective temporal data management and absence of platforms that use these models to easily develop, configure and deploy controls in real buildings. This paper introduces a semantics-driven framework to enable DF control applications in real buildings. The framework supports the generation of semantic models that adhere to Brick and SAREF while using metadata from Building Information Models (BIM) and Building Automation Systems (BAS). The work also introduces a web platform that leverages these models and an actor and microservices architecture to streamline the development, configuration and deployment of DF controls. The paper demonstrates the framework through a case study, illustrating its ability to integrate diverse data sources, execute DF actuation in a real building, and promote modularity for easy reuse, extension, and customisation of applications. The paper also discusses the alignment between Brick and SAREF, the value of leveraging BIM data sources, and the framework's benefits over existing approaches, demonstrating a 75% reduction in effort for developing, configuring, and deploying building controls.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for electroweak production of vector-like leptons in $\tau$-lepton and b-jet final states in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for pair-production of vector-like leptons is presented, considering their decays into a third-generation Standard Model (SM) quark and a vector leptoquark ( U 1 ) as predicted by an ultraviolet-complete extension of the SM, referred to as the ‘4321’ model. Given the assumed decay of U 1 into third-generation SM fermions, the final state can contain multiple τ-leptons and b-quarks. This search is based on a dataset of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to $140~\textrm{fb}^{-1}$. No significant excess above the SM background prediction is observed, and 95% confidence level limits on the cross-section times branching ratio are derived as a function of the vector-like lepton mass. A lower observed (expected) limit of 910 GeV (970 GeV) is set on the vector-like lepton mass. Additionally, the results are interpreted for a supersymmetric model with an R-parity violating coupling to the third-generation quarks and leptons. Lower observed (expected) limits are obtained on the higgsino mass at 880 GeV (940 GeV) and on the wino mass at 1170 GeV (1170 GeV).

Aad, G. [CPPM, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS/IN2P↗