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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluate the impact of sensor accuracy on model performance in data-driven building fault detection and diagnostics using Monte Carlo simulation

The performance of data-driven fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) is heavily dependent on sensors. However, sensor inaccuracy and sensor faults are pervasive in building operation: inaccurate and missing sensor readings deteriorate FDD performance; sensor inaccuracy will also affect the selection of sensor for data-driven FDD in the model training process, which is another key factor of data-driven FDD performance. Sensor accuracy and sensor selection individually are well-studied research topics in this field, but the impact of sensor accuracy on sensor selection and its further impact on FDD performance has not been evaluated and quantified. In this paper, we developed a novel analysis methodology that comprehensively evaluates sensor fault on sensor selection and FDD accuracy. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to deal with multiple stochastic sensor inaccuracy and provide probabilistic analysis results of the impact of sensor inaccuracy on sensor selection and FDD accuracy. This methodology focuses on the net impact of fault states across a full sensor set. The developed methodology can be used for the early-stage sensor design and operation-stage sensor maintenance. Furthermore, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the analysis methodology using a commercial building model crated to Flexible Research Platform located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study

Active seismic faults in the Pacific Northwest area have encouraged electric utilities in the region to deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. To further this effort this research introduces Monte Carlo (MC)-based power system modeling as a means to inform the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering method and simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland Hills Fault (PHF) scenario in the Portland General Electric (PGE) service territory as a proof of concept. This paper also proposes the resilience metric Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) to quantify the recovery of a downed power system and thus can be used to quantify earthquake economic risk. Using MC results, the SLRF was evaluated to be 19.7 h and the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was found to be $\$180$ million with an annualized risk of $\$90,000$ given the event’s 1 in 2000 year probability of occurrence. The MC results also identified the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system—i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss. This paper concludes that retrofitting these substations reduced the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event to $117 million.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rare Events via Cross-Entropy Population Monte Carlo

Rare events are events that happen with very low frequency. Estimating rare event probabilities using Monte Carlo techniques is computationally expensive, often to the point of intractability, and special methods are required. Importance sampling (IS) is a well known technique that uses a proposal distribution in place of a target distribution to lower the variance of the estimator. Key to the success of IS methods is the choice of a proposal distribution, or the parameters governing the distribution. Adaptive importance sampling improves the parameters of a family or population of proposal distributions iteratively through trials. We present a novel cross-entropy population Monte Carlo algorithm, which adapts the parameters of proposals through the cross-entropy method. The proposed method stands apart from previous work in that we are not optimizing a mixture distribution. Instead, we leverage deterministic mixture weights and optimize the distributions individually through a reinterpretation of the typical derivation of the cross-entropy method. Demonstrations on rare event examples show that the algorithm can outperform existing resampling based population Monte Carlo methods, especially for higher-dimensional problems. Finally, we also demonstrate efficacy on a conjunction analysis problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

ECAR-7300 Rev 1 Verification and Validation of MCNP6.2 for MARVEL Neutronic Analysis

This report documents the verification and validation (V&V) efforts of the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code (MCNP) version 6.2 on the Sawtooth supercomputer for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor required for the preliminary documented safety analysis. This document records V&V for a safety, hazards, analysis, and design software used for design and analysis of safety class structures, system and components (SSC)s.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

HEPTAPOD: Orchestrating High Energy Physics Workflows Towards Autonomous Agency

Many workflows in high-energy-physics (HEP) stand to benefit from recent advances in transformer-based large language models (LLMs). While early applications of LLMs focused on text generation and code completion, modern LLMs now support orchestrated agency: the coordinated execution of complex, multi-step tasks through tool use, structured context, and iterative reasoning. We introduce the HEP Toolkit for Agentic Planning, Orchestration, and Deployment (HEPTAPOD), an orchestration framework designed to bring this emerging paradigm to HEP pipelines. The framework enables LLMs to interface with domain-specific tools, construct and manage simulation workflows, and assist in common utility and data analysis tasks through schema-validated operations and run-card-driven configuration. To demonstrate these capabilities, we consider a representative Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) Monte Carlo validation pipeline that spans model generation, event simulation, and downstream analysis within a unified, reproducible workflow. HEPTAPOD provides a structured and auditable layer between human researchers, LLMs, and computational infrastructure, establishing a foundation for transparent, human-in-the-loop systems.

Menzo, Tony [Alabama U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of active interrogation methods for source location in a scattering and absorbing medium, consisting of PGNAA, and an AmBe quasi-forward biased directional source

Source location of Special Nuclear Material (SNM) encompassing 95% 235 U and 239 Pu is identified by utilizing a directional source from Patent No: US20190013109A1 using Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis (PGNAA) and neutron spectroscopy simulated with Monte-Carlo N-Particle transport 6.2 (MCNP). BC-408, HPGe, LaBr 3 detector arrays were used to identify the location of the SNM using total counts incident on each detector, and PGNAA photopeaks from HPGe and LaBr 3 detector arrays in a polyethylene shield. The conducted simulations varied the volume and location of the SNM in the MCNP input files to observe how the source location method behaved. PGNAA photopeaks used for source identification include 61 keV from fission, 2.223 MeV prompt gamma from hydrogen, 511 keV annihilation, and a single and double escape peaks from the prompt gamma interaction from hydrogen. The capabilities of each detector systems to acquire well resolved photopeaks with a 1% relative error or less, and total relative error for F4 and F8 tallies were less than 0.015% relative error. Source predictions of the SNM with uneven amounts of polyethylene shielding between the source and detectors was observed to overpredict and give invalid source location predictions. Source locations of the SNM with even amounts of polyethylene material between the source and each detector were found to be valid. With a 1 Ci 241 Am source activity, it was determined that 1630 s were needed to obtain the results for each detector system with the quasi-forward directional AmBe source. Coupling source and material identification together would increase acquisition time but would only require one system to determine.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subsurface Characteristics of Metal-Halide Perovskites Polished by an Argon Ion Beam

Focused ion beam (FIB) techniques have been frequently used to section metal-halide perovskites for microstructural investigations. However, the ion beams directly irradiating the sample surface may alter its properties far different from those of pristine, potentially leading to modified deterioration mechanisms under aging stressors. Here, we combine complementary approaches to measure the subsurface characteristics of polished perovskites and identify the chemical species responsible for the measured properties. Analysis of the experimental results in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations indicates that atomic displacements and local heating occur in the first ≈15 nm of the subsurface of methylammonium lead iodide (MAPbI 3 ) by glancing-angle Ar + beam irradiation (4 kV at 3°). The lead-rich, iodine-deficient surface promotes rapid phase segregation under thermal aging conditions. On the other hand, despite the subsurface modification, our experiments confirm that the rest of the MAPbI 3 bulk retains the material integrity. Our observation supports that polished perovskites could serve in studying the properties of bulk or buried junctions far away from the altered subsurface with care.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical Framework to Design Linear-like Relaxors toward Capacitive Energy Storage

ABO 3 -type perovskite relaxor ferroelectrics (RFEs) have emerged as the preferred option for dielectric capacitive energy storage. However, the compositional design of RFEs with high energy density and efficiency poses significant challenges owing to the vast compositional space and the absence of general rules. Here, we present an atomic-level chemical framework that captures inherent characteristics in terms of radius and ferroelectric activity of ions. By categorizing A/B-site ions as host framework, rattling, ferroelectrically active, and blocking ions and assembling these four types of ions with specific criteria, linear-like relaxors with weak locally correlated and highly extendable unit-cell polarization vectors can be constructed. As example, we demonstrate two new compositions of Bi 0.5 K 0.5 TiO 3- based and BaTiO 3- based relaxors, showing extremely high recoverable energy densities of 17.3 and 12.1 J cm –3 , respectively, both with a high efficiency of about 90%. Further, the role of different types of ions in forming heterogeneous polar structures is identified through element-specific local structure analysis using neutron total scattering combined with reverse Monte Carlo modeling. Further, our work not only opens up new avenues toward rational compositional design of high energy storage performance lead-free RFEs but also sheds light on atomic-level manipulation of functional properties in compositionally complex ferroelectrics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-quantified phenomenological optical potentials for single-nucleon scattering

Optical-model potentials (OMPs) continue to play a key role in nuclear reaction calculations. However, the uncertainty of phenomenological OMPs in widespread use—inherent to any parametric model trained on data—has not been fully characterized, and its impact on downstream users of OMPs remains unclear. Here we assign well-calibrated uncertainties for two representative global OMPs, those of Koning-Delaroche and Chapel Hill '89, using Markov-chain Monte Carlo for parameter inference. By comparing the canonical versions of these OMPs against the experimental data originally used to constrain them, we show how a lack of outlier rejection and a systematic underestimation of experimental uncertainties contributes to bias of, and overconfidence in, best-fit parameter values. Our updated, uncertainty-quantified versions of these OMPs address these issues and yield complete covariance information for potential parameters. Scattering predictions generated from our ensembles show improved performance both against the original training corpora of experimental data and against a new “test” corpus comprising many of the experimental single-nucleon scattering data collected over the last twenty years. Finally, we apply our uncertainty-quantified OMPs to two case studies of application-relevant cross sections. We conclude that, for many common applications of OMPs, including OMP uncertainty should become standard practice. Furthermore, to facilitate their immediate use, digital versions of our updated OMPs and related tools for forward uncertainty propagation are included as Supplemental Material.

150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for the decay B s 0 → π 0 π 0 at Belle

We report the results of the first search for the decay B$^{0}_{s}$ → π 0 ⁢π 0 using 121.4 fb -1 of data collected at the Y⁡(5⁢S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + ⁢e - collider. We observe no signal and set a 90% confidence level upper limit of 7.7 ×10 -6 on the B$^{0}_{s}$ → π 0 π 0 decay branching fraction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for the Lepton Flavor Violating Decays B + → K + τ ± ℓ ∓ ( ℓ = e , μ ) at Belle

We present a search for the lepton flavor violating decays B + → K + ⁢$\tau$ ±⁢ ℓ ∓ , with ℓ = (e,μ), using the full data sample of 772×10 6 B$\overline{B}$ pairs recorded by the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + ⁢e - collider. We use events in which one B meson is fully reconstructed in a hadronic decay mode. We find no evidence for B ± → K ±⁢ $\tau$⁢ℓ decays and set upper limits on their branching fractions at the 90% confidence level in the (1 - 3) × 10 -5 range. The obtained limits are the world’s best results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical mechanics of kinks on a gliding screw dislocation

The ability of a body-centered-cubic metal to deform plastically is limited by the thermally activated glide motion of screw dislocations, which are line defects with a mobility exhibiting complex dependence on temperature, stress, and dislocation segment length. We derive an analytical expression for the velocity of dislocation glide, based on a statistical mechanics argument, and identify an apparent phase transition marked by a crossover temperature above which the activation energy for glide effectively halves, changing from the formation energy of a double kink to that of a single kink. The analysis is in quantitative agreement with direct kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Neutronics Modeling for Inertial Fusion Energy Systems: Development and Application to LD-FIRST

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is proposing a new Laser Driven Fusion Integration Research and Science Test Facility (LD-FIRST) with the goal of providing an experimental testbed for future Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) systems. However, IFE systems require detailed and accurate multiphysics modeling to quantify material damage, thermal loading, and tritium breeding within complex chamber environments. This article presents the first step in an integrated multiphysics framework that couples meshed CAD-based geometry within Monte Carlo neutronic simulations to enable high-fidelity analysis of IFE chamber concepts, with future coupling to external codes. The neutronics workflow utilizes OpenMC and its third-party capability to use CAD-based geometries through DAGMC and tally on unstructured meshes with Libmesh to evaluate neutron transport behavior, geometric fidelity, and material performance under reactor-relevant conditions. The use of tailored tallies on unstructured meshes in this framework allows direct transfer without interpolating to CFD simulation tools. Two IFE chambers were evaluated, both conceived by LLNL: HYLIFE-II and Laser IFE (LIFE). This work produced high-fidelity conformal surface and volumetric meshes of the HYLIFE-II and LIFE chambers with mapped spatial insight into material damage, thermal loading, and tritium breeding. The HYLIFE-II model was built utilizing available resources and used as a test case to verify that the neutronics framework can handle complex geometries. The LIFE chamber CAD was provided by LLNL and was the main focus of this work. This work analyzes multiple ternary alloy breeding materials for the LIFE chamber, across different 6 Li enrichments to produce data relevant to the LD-FIRST project. This work also investigates the level of model fidelity for the LIFE chamber, and results show that inclusion of detailed first wall and coolant structures increased the predicted tritium breeding ratio (TBR) by ~30%, highlighting the sensitivity of tritium breeding and the need for a high-fidelity simulation framework for IFE chambers. These developments provide a scalable toolset for the design and optimization of next-generation IFE chambers, forming a solid foundation for future coupled multiphysics analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A System-Level Cost Modeling Framework for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of an Agricultural Machine Transmission

Remanufacturing offers significant environmental and economic benefits by restoring end-of-life products to as-new conditions. Although extensive research has been conducted on the topic, the adoption of remanufacturing practices remains limited across various industries. A primary barrier to broader implementation is the substantial upfront investment required, which necessitates reliable cost modeling to justify potential future savings. Most existing models treat components independently and ignore inter-component dependencies. We develop a probabilistic, system-level cost modeling framework that integrates reliability, reusability, and a dependency matrix to capture cascading effects across components over multiple life cycles. Our model identifies those critical components that maximize remanufacturing benefits across a product's many lives. A toy example and an industry case study (John Deere PowrQuad transmission subassembly) illustrate how design alternatives affect cumulative cost. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to perform life cycle cost analysis on the system with different design changes, we show the normalized average cost savings after three remanufacturing cycles. Accounting for dependencies meaningfully alters cost projections and ignoring them underestimates accumulated cost by up to 20% in our examples. Furthermore, the results of our study confirm that accounting for component interdependencies is necessary to produce cost estimates that meet industry standards.

Life Cycle Analysis and Design↗
DOE OSTI2025

Background Measurements and Simulations of the ComPair Balloon Flight

ComPair, a prototype of the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory (AMEGO), completed a short-duration high-altitude balloon campaign on 27 August 2023 from Fort Sumner, New Mexico, USA. The goal of the balloon flight was to demonstrate ComPair as both a Compton and Pair telescope in flight, reject the charged particle background, and measure the background γ-ray spectrum. This analysis compares measurements from the balloon flight with Monte Carlo simulations to benchmark the instrument. The comparison finds good agreement between the measurements and simulations and supports the conclusion that ComPair accomplished its goals for the balloon campaign. Additionally, two charged particle background rejection schemes are discussed: a soft ACD veto that records a higher charged particle event rate but with less risk of event loss, and a hard ACD veto that limits the charged particle event rate on board. There was little difference in the measured spectra from the soft and hard ACD veto schemes, indicating that the hard ACD veto could be used for future flights. The successes of ComPair’s engineering flight will inform the development of the next generation of ComPair with upgraded detector technology and larger active area.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

TAUOLA update for decay channels with e + e – pairs in the final state

With the arrival of high luminosity B-factories like the Belle II experiment, τ decay measurements have become more precise than ever, allowing rarer processes to be explored, and finer details of τ decays to be studied. These are important to understand the spectrum of intermediate particles produced in τ decays. Therefore Monte Carlo generators, like the TAUOLA program, have to facilitate precision analysis as well as confront new models that constantly emerge with the availability of high statistics experimental data. New decay channels and models may lead to large variation of matrix elements size within the available phase space, as in the case when e + e - pairs are present in final state. It requires appropriate presampler of the phase space generator and a proper documentation to help users introduce their own models. While releasing a new update, it is important for the TAUOLA Monte Carlo library to maintain the general structure of the previous versions to preserve backward compatibility. The aim is to minimize changes from the user perspective. Finally, this paper presents a demonstration of new models implementation facilitated by the current update.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗