Results for “Monte Carlo estimators” — Page 14

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assistive Detect and Avoid for Pilots in the Cockpit

Aircraft not receiving radar services rely on see and avoid and radio coordination via Common Traffic Advisory Frequencies to remain well clear of each other and avoid mid-air collisions. Radio coordination is usually performed in the vicinity of non-towered airports whereas non-radar services en-route operations rely solely on see and avoid. This paper presents the results of a simulation study of the effectiveness of assistive detect and avoid technologies when used to enhance pilots’ ability to see and avoid nearby traffic. Three different experimental conditions are modeled, representing “unaided see and avoid”, “see and avoid with traffic advisories”, and “see and avoid with assistive detect and avoid technology”. The effectiveness of see and avoid is evaluated using a set of head-on, crossing, and overtaking encounter scenarios and a model of visual acquisition embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation. The effectiveness of assistive detect and avoid is estimated for the same encounter scenarios. A prototype system for detect and avoid and a summary of results are presented. Preliminary results strongly suggest that assistive detect and avoid could greatly enhance the capabilities of flight crews to avoid traffic and remain well clear.

collision, detect and avoid, resolution, well clea↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assistive Detect and Avoid for Pilots in the Cockpit

Aircraft not receiving radar services rely on see and avoid and radio coordination via Common Traffic Advisory Frequencies to remain well clear of each other and avoid mid-air collisions. Radio coordination is usually performed in the vicinity of non-towered airports whereas non-radar services en-route operations rely solely on see and avoid. This paper presents the results of a simulation study of the effectiveness of assistive detect and avoid technologies when used to enhance pilots’ ability to see and avoid nearby traffic. Three different experimental conditions are modeled, representing “unaided see and avoid”, “see and avoid with traffic advisories”, and “see and avoid with assistive detect and avoid technology”. The effectiveness of see and avoid is evaluated using a set of head-on, crossing, and overtaking encounter scenarios and a model of visual acquisition embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation. The effectiveness of assistive detect and avoid is estimated for the same encounter scenarios. A prototype system for detect and avoid and a summary of results are presented. Preliminary results strongly suggest that assistive detect and avoid could greatly enhance the capabilities of flight crews to avoid traffic and remain well clear.

collision↗

NASA NTRS1989

Extracting ocean surface information from altimeter returns - The deconvolution method

An evaluation of the deconvolution method for estimating ocean surface parameters from ocean altimeter waveforms is presented. It is shown that this method presents a fast, accurate way of determining the ocean surface parameters from noisy altimeter data. Three parameters may be estimated by using this method, including the altimeter-height error, the ocean-surface standard deviation, and the ocean-surface skewness. By means of a Monte Carlo experiment, an 'optimum' deconvolution algorithm and the accuracies with which the above parameters may be estimated using this algorithm are determined. Then the influence of instrument effects, such as errors in calibration and pointing-angle estimation, on the estimated parameters is examined. Finally, the deconvolution algorithm is used to estimate height and ocean-surface parameters from Seasat data.

Rodriguez, Ernesto↗

NASA NTRS2019

Characterizing the System Impulse Response Function from Photon-Counting LiDAR Data

NASA's Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental LiDAR (MABEL) is an aircraft-based photon-counting laser altimeter designed as a simulator to test measurement techniques and algorithms for Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), the sole instrument on NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission. By measuring the time of flight, pointing angle, and absolute position for individual photons, ICESat-2 provides detailed elevation measurements of earth's surface. Calculating accurate and precise elevations requires an understanding of how photons interact with surfaces, and characterization of the photon distribution after returning from surfaces. Neither MABEL nor ATLAS records the transmitted laser pulse shape, relying instead on aggregating several pulses worth of photons, often using histograms, to characterize the pulse shape. In this paper, we assess the limitations of using histograms and propose a more robust method to describe MABEL's system impulse-response function using an exponentially modified Gaussian distribution. We also provide standard error estimates for the arithmetic mean and standard deviation calculations, and for exponentially modified Gaussian parameters using a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. We apply this method to photon returns from a sea ice lead and from a dry salt lake bed as case studies for estimating the standard error associated with sample size for the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, and for the exponentially modified Gaussian parameters. We use these standard errors to calculate the minimum number of photons required to find both Gaussian and exponentially modified Gaussian distribution parameters within 3 cm of their parent population values.

photoncounting↗

NASA NTRS2026

Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo Calculation of the Austenite and Martensite Phases of NiTi

NiTi is a promising material for smart and active technologies due to its exhibition of the shape memory effect, superelasticity, and biocompatibility. The shape memory effect is tied to the reversible transition between the austenite and martensite phases. A major research direction is to alloy NiTi with Zr, Hf, Pd, Pt, etc., in order to tune the martensitic transition temperature (MTT). Modeling the MTT from first principles is challenging because the lattice dynamics is complicated by anharmonicity and various low-energy structures. Using density functional theory, the energy difference between the austenite and martensite phases of NiTi varies by up to 100 meV/atom depending on the choice of density functional, which is of the same order of the energy difference itself. Consequently, free energy calculations with different functionals can result in estimates of the MTT that vary by several hundred K. Using diffusion quantum Monte Carlo, we calculated the energy difference between the B2 and B19' structures of NiTi to be 70.9 +- 2.5 meV/atom.

Kevin K Ly↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. Volume 2: SRB water impact Monte Carlo computer program, user's manual

The HD 220 program was created as part of the space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. The model was generated to investigate the damage to SRB components under water impact loads. The random nature of environmental parameters, such as ocean waves and wind conditions, necessitates estimation of the relative frequency of occurrence for these parameters. The nondeterministic nature of component strengths also lends itself to probabilistic simulation. The Monte Carlo technique allows the simultaneous perturbation of multiple independent parameters and provides outputs describing the probability distribution functions of the dependent parameters. This allows the user to determine the required statistics for each output parameter.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2001

Estimates of M2 Tidal Energy Dissipation from TOPEX/Poseidon Altimeter Data

Most of the tidal energy dissipation in the ocean occurs in shallow seas, as has long been recognized. However, recent work has suggested that a significant fraction of the dissipation, perhaps 1 TW or more, occurs in the deep ocean. This paper builds further evidence for that conclusion. More than 6 years of data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter are used to map the tidal dissipation rate throughout the world ocean. The dissipation rate is estimated as a balance between the rate of working by tidal forces and the energy flux divergence, computed using currents derived by least squares fitting of the altimeter data and the shallow water equations. Such calculations require dynamical assumptions, in particular about the nature of dissipation. To assess sensitivity of dissipation estimates to input assumptions, a large suite of tidal inversions based on a wide range of drag parameterizations and employing both real and synthetic altimeter data are compared. These experiments and Monte Carlo error fields from a generalized inverse model are used to establish error uncertainties for the dissipation estimates. Owing to the tight constraints on tidal elevation fields provided by the altimeter, area integrals of the energy balance are remarkably insensitive to required dynamical assumptions. Tidal energy dissipation is estimated for all major shallow seas (excluding individual polar seas) and compared with previous model and data-based estimates. Dissipation in the open ocean is significantly tnhanced around major bathymetric features, in a manner consistent with simple theories the generation of baroclinic tides.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS1969

The effects of atmospheric fluctuations and representation upon propagated sound

Comparison of ray trace methods for estimating sound intensity variations due to atmospheric variability as determined by Monte Carlo methods

Bundgaard, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Stacking Searches for Greater Than 100 MeV Gamma Ray Emission from Radio Galaxies and Seyfert Galaxies

The EGRET telescope on CGRO detected more than sixty sources of high-energy gamma radiation associated with active galactic nuclei (AGN). All but one of those belong to the blazar subclass; the only exception is the nearby radio galaxy Centaurus A. Since there is no obvious reason other than proximity to expect Cen A to be the only non-blazar AGN emitting in high-energy gamma rays, we have utilized the "stacking" technique to search for $>100$-MeV emission from two non-blazar AGN subclasses, radio galaxies and Seyfert galaxies. Maps of gamma-ray counts, exposure, and diffuse background have been created, then co-added in varying numbers based on sorts by redshift, 5-GHZ flux density, and optical brightness, and finally tested for gamma-ray emission. No detection significance greater than $2\sigma$ has been found for any subclass, sorting parameter, or number of objects co-added. Monte Carlo simulations have also been performed, to validate the technique and estimate the significance of the results.

Cillis, A. N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Test Method Variability in Slow Crack Growth Properties of Sealing Glasses

The crack growth properties of several sealing glasses were measured by using constant stress rate testing in ~2 and 95 percent RH (relative humidity). Crack growth parameters measured in high humidity are systematically smaller (n and B) than those measured in low humidity, and crack velocities for dry environments are ~100x lower than for wet environments. The crack velocity is very sensitive to small changes in RH at low RH. Biaxial and uniaxial stress states produced similar parameters. Confidence intervals on crack growth parameters that were estimated from propagation of errors solutions were comparable to those from Monte Carlo simulation. Use of scratch-like and indentation flaws produced similar crack growth parameters when residual stresses were considered.

Salem, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting OSIRIS-REx Touch-And-Go (TAG) Performance Given the Realities of Asteroid Bennu

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is a NASA New Frontiers mission that launched in 2016 and rendezvoused with the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2018. Upon arrival, the surface of Bennu was found to be much rockier than expected. The original Touch-and-Go (TAG) requirement for sample collection was to deliver the spacecraft to a site with a 25-meter radius; however, the largest hazard-free sites are no larger than 8 meters in radius. To accommodate the dearth of safe sample collection sites, the project reevaluated all aspects of flight system performance pertaining to TAG in order to account for the demonstrated performance of the spacecraft and navigation prediction accuracies. More-over, the project has base lined on board natural feature tracking instead of lidar for providing the on board navigation state update during the TAG sequence. This paper summarizes the improvements in error source estimation, enhancements in on board trajectory correction, and results of recent Monte Carlo simulation to en-able sample collection with the given constraints. TAG delivery and on board navigation performance are presented for the final four candidate TAG sites.

Berry, Kevin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) Problem With Range, Range-Rate and Angles

The Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) problem has been tacked since Laplace, Euler and Gauss in the service of determining the orbits of planets, asteroids, and comets. The measurements that established the orbit characteristics were angles over long arcs.1 The Space Age brought two new measurement types to bear: range and range-rate.2, 3 Initially these measurements were provided by radars through skin-tracking. Soon, however, transponders allowed better measurement accuracy and availability. To date, there are three types of IOD problems: angles only, range and angles, and range and range-rate. The Orion program exposed the need for an additional capability in the case of an extended loss of communication: when the measurements included antenna angles (azimuth and elevation or right-ascension and declination), range and range-rate. This paper contains the details of this new methodology. We will begin with state determination with range, range-rate and angle measurements. First the state estimate, given a sequence of these four time-synchronized measurements, will be analytically developed. Next the covariance matrix associated with this state estimate will be analytically developed. Finally, these will be verified by Monte Carlo simulations.

Christopher D’Souza↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Queuing Theory Approach to Pilot-Controller Coordination for m:N Operations

In recent years, attention and interest by industry and researchers has grown in a control paradigm for remotely piloted aircraft termed “m:N operations.” In an m:N operation, a team of m remote pilots in command (RIPCs) collaboratively manage the flights of N aircraft. A consequence of an m:N concept of operations is that the RPICs will have to switch attention from one aircraft to another and from one task to another. Previous research in m:N operations has focused on the workload experienced by an RPIC and their level of situation awareness on their flights. Researchers have found that RPIC workload and situation awareness are generally sensitive to increasing N, although NASA’s Multi-Vehicle (m:N) Working Group has suggested that the driver of workload/situation awareness is the number of exceptions requiring human intervention as opposed to the value of N itself. In any case, a natural antecedent of workload is task load. In this paper, queueing theory is applied to a 1:N Urban Air Mobility (UAM) air taxi operation in order to estimate pilot task load for managing radio communications with air traffic controllers (ATCs) under increasing N. An M/M/1 queueing system is used to model the RIPC’s servicing of calls and clearance requests (e.g., departure, arrival, or airspace transition) to ATC for the N aircraft. Important parameters for the queueing model are the task arrival rate and the average service time for task completion. Radio communication times from past human-in-the-loop simulation studies are used to measure service times for a 1:4 and 1:12 UAM operation and to interpolate service times for 4 < N < 12. A Monte Carlo method is then employed, using the measured and interpolated service times, to estimate arrival rate and related queueing statistics. The paper concludes by considering the estimated queuing statistics, particularly the RPIC’s utilization (i.e., proportion of time actively servicing tasks), the length of the task queue over time, and the implications for task-balanced system design.

task load↗

NASA NTRS1972

Application of MORSE to radiation analysis of nuclear flight propulsion modules

Several modifications and additions were made to the multigroup Monte Carlo code (MORSE) to implement its use in a computational procedure for performing radiation analyses of NERVA nuclear flight propulsion modules. These changes include the incorporation of a new general geometry module; the inclusion of an expectation tracklength estimator; and the option to obtain source information from two-dimensional discrete ordinates calculations. Computations comparing MORSE and a point cross section Monte Carlo code, COHORT, were made in which a coupled discrete ordinates/Monte Carlo procedure was used to calculate the gamma dose rate at tank top locations of a typical propulsion module. The dose rates obtained from the MORSE computation agreed with the dose rates obtained from the COHORT computation to within the limits of the statistical accuracy of the calculations.

Woolson, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

Warner, James E.↗